Dallas Cowboys QB Trey Lance Thread

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
I don't disagree with the general idea behind 'Any Given Sunday' and no games are gimmies etc. That's how a better team like the Chargers can lose a game they shouldn't to the Texans. You don't draw definitive conclusions after a single game and that's exactly what people are doing by citing the Chargers/ Texans game as evidence that the Texans were better than what they were.

What I do disagree with is that the 49ers offense played well that game, or that the Texans presented a difficult challenge defensively. The Texans weren't good that day defensively, just as they weren't the entire season. We were bad offensively for the bulk of the game. Still won mainly because our defense completely controlled the game and our offense made a few nice plays by the end. It was still a subpar performance, and Trey did not play well regardless of the win. Again, expecting this guy to play well right away given his resume is absurd… and he hasn't.

The entire argument that people are downplaying the Texans in an attempt to minimize Trey's success is faulty, because he wasn't very successful in that game. It was the same level of performance we've seen in all his starts, with a big scoring play mixed in and a nice drive or two. His QBR was in the 30's, like every other performance. His PFF grade was lower in that game than against the more difficult opponent in Arizona. I don't think anyone should hang on these stats… but they point you in a direction.

Except Houston did play really well in that game especially with their tackling. They may not be super talented but they came to play that game but eventually they just got out matched.

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:

Originally posted by SinceXVI:
Justin Herbert was a Pro Bowl QB that year and is a top 5 QB. And the Chargers beat 5 playoff teams that year KC, LVR, PHI, PIT, and CIN. They were a playoff caliber team that year.

Also Houston's defense had 17 picks that year compared to the Niners' 9.

The Niners are obviously the better team, but it's "Any given Sunday." There's no gimme wins in the league regardless of the disparity between two team's talent and records.

That was a quality team win and a good performance by Lance.

As for the int, he nailed a similar throw during his next start.

Trey Lance ?? Ray-Ray McCloud. Trey fits it in perfectly over the outstretched Roquan Smith for the 20-yard completion. ???? #49ers pic.twitter.com/JObg4Recvw

— Coach Yac ???? (@Coach_Yac) September 12, 2022

Niners are in good hands at QB with either Purdy, Lance or Darnold.

I don't disagree with the general idea behind 'Any Given Sunday' and no games are gimmies etc. That's how a better team like the Chargers can lose a game they shouldn't to the Texans. You don't draw definitive conclusions after a single game and that's exactly what people are doing by citing the Chargers/ Texans game as evidence that the Texans were better than what they were.

What I do disagree with is that the 49ers offense played well that game, or that the Texans presented a difficult challenge defensively. The Texans weren't good that day defensively, just as they weren't the entire season. We were bad offensively for the bulk of the game. Still won mainly because our defense completely controlled the game and our offense made a few nice plays by the end. It was still a subpar performance, and Trey did not play well regardless of the win. Again, expecting this guy to play well right away given his resume is absurd… and he hasn't.

The entire argument that people are downplaying the Texans in an attempt to minimize Trey's success is faulty, because he wasn't very successful in that game. It was the same level of performance we've seen in all his starts, with a big scoring play mixed in and a nice drive or two. His QBR was in the 30's, like every other performance. His PFF grade was lower in that game than against the more difficult opponent in Arizona. I don't think anyone should hang on these stats… but they point you in a direction.

QBR is a junk stat based on subjective data.

The offense put up 424 yards that day which indicates a good performance regardless who they played. And Lance played well as evidenced of him completing 70% of his passes with a few being of a high degree of difficulty.

The only problem the offense had that day was coming short on 3rd and 4th downs, which was a season long issue.

As for the AZ game, you should revisit it. How many balls were dropped by Sanu and Deebo that game? Shanahan passed up two fgs and instead came up short on 4th down (season long issue). On the failed 4th down goal line play, Elijah Mitchell failed to block for Lance instead kept running into the end zone. The o-line had multiple offensive holding penalties called on them, at one point two back-to-back.

Lance has had a rough start to his career, but he's statistically on par with Josh Allen at the same stage of snaps taken. He'll be fine and win games for us if given the chance.

Originally posted by SinceXVI:
QBR is a junk stat based on subjective data.

The offense put up 424 yards that day which indicates a good performance regardless who they played. And Lance played well as evidenced of him completing 70% of his passes with a few being of a high degree of difficulty.

The only problem the offense had that day was coming short on 3rd and 4th downs, which was a season long issue.

As for the AZ game, you should revisit it. How many balls were dropped by Sanu and Deebo that game? Shanahan passed up two fgs and instead came up short on 4th down (season long issue). On the failed 4th down goal line play, Elijah Mitchell failed to block for Lance instead kept running into the end zone. The o-line had multiple offensive holding penalties called on them, at one point two back-to-back.

Lance has had a rough start to his career, but he's statistically on par with Josh Allen at the same stage of snaps taken. He'll be fine and win games for us if given the chance.

At the very least Lance was on par with the QB play we received the rest of the year from Jimmy. As you pointed out the offense was inconsistent all season. Entire halves led to nothing on the regular.

Originally posted by SinceXVI:
QBR is a junk stat based on subjective data.

The offense put up 424 yards that day which indicates a good performance regardless who they played. And Lance played well as evidenced of him completing 70% of his passes with a few being of a high degree of difficulty.

The only problem the offense had that day was coming short on 3rd and 4th downs, which was a season long issue.

As for the AZ game, you should revisit it. How many balls were dropped by Sanu and Deebo that game? Shanahan passed up two fgs and instead came up short on 4th down (season long issue). On the failed 4th down goal line play, Elijah Mitchell failed to block for Lance instead kept running into the end zone. The o-line had multiple offensive holding penalties called on them, at one point two back-to-back.

Lance has had a rough start to his career, but he's statistically on par with Josh Allen at the same stage of snaps taken. He'll be fine and win games for us if given the chance.

I wasn't touting QBR, or PFF as anything other than another statistical resource that can point a person in a direction. Beyond that, most quality football analysis is going to be subjective in some form or fashion. Basic stats like yards, completion percentage, passer rating, etc are going to tell us very little, especially without as much context as possible.

For example, you're arguing 424 yards is good no matter the opponent. Generating 23 points off of 424 yards is 18.43 yards per point, which would have ranked 30th out 32 teams extrapolated over the course of the 2021 season. Is that indicative of a good offensive performance? Not at all. And that's whether you think the Texans defense is terrible or average. I also don't think anyone would describe our 2021 Jimmy lead offense as anything remarkable, but again the point was to invest in the position and improve there. We have seen it clearly in the other direction in Lance's limited time. Once again… to be expected. But also, how is this a good thing for a team ready to win now, instead of 2 years down the road when Lance has taken his lumps and hopefully* improved like a Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, or Trevor Lawrence to a lesser extent.

I get there's a feeling we can play Trey and win games. To me it's just a feeling or a hope at this point as there isn't anything to actually support the idea and the limited evidence points in the other direction. The team is acting accordingly.

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by CharlieSheen:

Originally posted by Bay2Bay9erAllday:

Originally posted by Second2Nunley:

Originally posted by Waterbear:

Originally posted by krizay:

Originally posted by English:
Sometimes this place reads like a kindergarten. It's the middle of June. Two of our three main quarterbacks have had injury problems and the third needs to settle in. Maybe wait until the preseasons till we throw comments like bust and suck around?

And even then we'll need a weather report. Plus snap count chart to see who was playing with whom.

We've been over this... context only applies to Jimmy, Brock, and Sam.

For Trey its "excusarama"

Picture the opposite. Trey went 8-0 last year winning two play off games before getting injured putting up 32 plus pts per game. Could you imagine the hype? There would be very few doubters in that scenario. I wish we saw flashes like that from Trey, I've wanted him to be that good. Brock is getting the unreasonable doubt here.

But did you not see the 'almost INTs' Purdy threw? He's a weak armed dink and dunker. Can't win games or SB with that. He'll never be a top tier QB.

Or so I've heard…

We NEED a guy that can do this. He's available for a TEs salary

No joking he would fit right in this offense. Imagine a TE end around that turns into a pass. One more weapon for Kyle.

EDIT: Trey Lance.

The almost ints were scary… I love BP but he is not proven. We should learn a lot about him this season assuming he is healthy and cleared to play. Trey is a 3 game vet with tons of potential. He is not going anywhere anytime soon. The competition for qb1 is just starting so stay tuned and hope for the best. BTW, lets take it down a bit on bashing a guy after 3 games and limited field time. Not cool.. we should give him the same if not more leeway we gave the talentless and always hurt idiot that Las Vegas picked up from the trash pile.

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
I wasn't touting QBR, or PFF as anything other than another statistical resource that can point a person in a direction. Beyond that, most quality football analysis is going to be subjective in some form or fashion. Basic stats like yards, completion percentage, passer rating, etc are going to tell us very little, especially without as much context as possible.

For example, you're arguing 424 yards is good no matter the opponent. Generating 23 points off of 424 yards is 18.43 yards per point, which would have ranked 30th out 32 teams extrapolated over the course of the 2021 season. Is that indicative of a good offensive performance? Not at all. And that's whether you think the Texans defense is terrible or average. I also don't think anyone would describe our 2021 Jimmy lead offense as anything remarkable, but again the point was to invest in the position and improve there. We have seen it clearly in the other direction in Lance's limited time. Once again… to be expected. But also, how is this a good thing for a team ready to win now, instead of 2 years down the road when Lance has taken his lumps and hopefully* improved like a Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, or Trevor Lawrence to a lesser extent.

I get there's a feeling we can play Trey and win games. To me it's just a feeling or a hope at this point as there isn't anything to actually support the idea and the limited evidence points in the other direction. The team is acting accordingly.

Issue with your analysis is it's devoid of circumstances.

We saw Lance improve within the game. Last I checked a game is still 4 quarters and not 2. Also each game is different. That's why you have a juggernaut Buffalo offense which averages 30 ppg score 6 points in a loss to a bottom 5 defense and the actual worst team in football.

Things happen in a game. Calls don't go your way, penalties kill drives or take away potential points. Both of those happened vs Houston. An actual Lance TD was wiped off the books cuz of a Bs holding call. No call on the throw to Aiyuk which imo was Trey's best throw of the day and should've been a TD if BA has his other hand to secure the catch. Refs throw the clear flag there and it's first and goal with time left to punch it in.

You and others make it sound like Lance needs X amount of reps until he's good enough to win. Clearly we can win with him when the team plays well overall but it's going to be tough with any QB if they're sloppy, committing crazy amount of penalties at bad times and turning the ball over. Trey has shown to be a quick learner and even in the first half of that Houston game he showed impressive things along with the bad.

It's hard to give him reps if Brock can play like he did last year because you're getting production you want and can't take the chance that Trey doesn't improve BUT fact is Trey doesn't need a year or two years to play before he's a quality QB here. He can develop as we win. He's not the type of QB to give games away with crazy turnovers where the rest of the team can't overcome his disaster.

We'll see if he gets his chance here though.

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
At the very least Lance was on par with the QB play we received the rest of the year from Jimmy. As you pointed out the offense was inconsistent all season. Entire halves led to nothing on the regular.

It really was inconsistent in 2021. People tend to forget it was a struggle for the team to go 10-7.

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
I wasn't touting QBR, or PFF as anything other than another statistical resource that can point a person in a direction. Beyond that, most quality football analysis is going to be subjective in some form or fashion. Basic stats like yards, completion percentage, passer rating, etc are going to tell us very little, especially without as much context as possible.

For example, you're arguing 424 yards is good no matter the opponent. Generating 23 points off of 424 yards is 18.43 yards per point, which would have ranked 30th out 32 teams extrapolated over the course of the 2021 season. Is that indicative of a good offensive performance? Not at all. And that's whether you think the Texans defense is terrible or average. I also don't think anyone would describe our 2021 Jimmy lead offense as anything remarkable, but again the point was to invest in the position and improve there. We have seen it clearly in the other direction in Lance's limited time. Once again… to be expected. But also, how is this a good thing for a team ready to win now, instead of 2 years down the road when Lance has taken his lumps and hopefully* improved like a Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, or Trevor Lawrence to a lesser extent.

I get there's a feeling we can play Trey and win games. To me it's just a feeling or a hope at this point as there isn't anything to actually support the idea and the limited evidence points in the other direction. The team is acting accordingly.

Issue with your analysis is it's devoid of circumstances.

We saw Lance improve within the game. Last I checked a game is still 4 quarters and not 2. Also each game is different. That's why you have a juggernaut Buffalo offense which averages 30 ppg score 6 points in a loss to a bottom 5 defense and the actual worst team in football.

Things happen in a game. Calls don't go your way, penalties kill drives or take away potential points. Both of those happened vs Houston. An actual Lance TD was wiped off the books cuz of a Bs holding call. No call on the throw to Aiyuk which imo was Trey's best throw of the day and should've been a TD if BA has his other hand to secure the catch. Refs throw the clear flag there and it's first and goal with time left to punch it in.

You and others make it sound like Lance needs X amount of reps until he's good enough to win. Clearly we can win with him when the team plays well overall but it's going to be tough with any QB if they're sloppy, committing crazy amount of penalties at bad times and turning the ball over. Trey has shown to be a quick learner and even in the first half of that Houston game he showed impressive things along with the bad.

It's hard to give him reps if Brock can play like he did last year because you're getting production you want and can't take the chance that Trey doesn't improve BUT fact is Trey doesn't need a year or two years to play before he's a quality QB here. He can develop as we win. He's not the type of QB to give games away with crazy turnovers where the rest of the team can't overcome his disaster.

We'll see if he gets his chance here though.

Not to mention the near guaranteed 3 points they passed on by failing to convert on 4th and 1, instead of kicking a 30 yard fg. The team arguably left 14 points on the field.

The Niners have invested a lot in Lance and will give him another shot, especially as they've seen him put in the work to improve.

The team is playing with house money with his development since they have Purdy.

He'll have training camp and two preseason games to prove he's ready to lead the team to contention.
If he's underwhelming, then Purdy starts week 1, if available.

If Lance looks good in training camp and preseason, then they'll delay Purdy's return for 2-3 weeks. If he plays well the team will stick with him until he either regresses and jeopardizes their season or get's injured.

This is counter to popular opinion that Purdy will be the guaranteed starter if healthy, but it's a plausible scenario given the team's investment and uncertain injury recovery timeline.

People aren't irrational for wanting Purdy to start week 1, and it wouldn't seem fair to bench him given last season's success. But football is a business about winning, money, and fate altering injuries.

Originally posted by SinceXVI:
Not to mention the near guaranteed 3 points they passed on by failing to convert on 4th and 1, instead of kicking a 30 yard fg. The team arguably left 14 points on the field.

The Niners have invested a lot in Lance and will give him another shot, especially as they've seen him put in the work to improve.

The team is playing with house money with his development since they have Purdy.

He'll have training camp and two preseason games to prove he's ready to lead the team to contention.
If he's underwhelming, then Purdy starts week 1, if available.

If Lance looks good in training camp and preseason, then they'll delay Purdy's return for 2-3 weeks. If he plays well the team will stick with him until he either regresses and jeopardizes their season or get's injured.

This is counter to popular opinion that Purdy will be the guaranteed starter if healthy, but it's a plausible scenario given the team's investment and uncertain injury recovery timeline.

People aren't irrational for wanting Purdy to start week 1, and it wouldn't seem fair to bench him given last season's success. But football is a business about winning, money, and fate altering injuries.

The fact that Trey is competing with Sam Darnold for the backup position should be a clear indicator to you that the 49ers aren't aching to give Trey another shot because of their investment. I agree he can play his way into the job, but he's not just looking at Purdy's performance as an obstacle, and the team isn't tailoring to his opportunity.

Of course people who want Purdy to start are thinking rationally. It's an easy call given what we have in front of us at this point, and to think the team hasn't effectively broadcasted this is a bad read of the situation.

I think QB is a question mark for the Niners no matter which QB you like. Brock has to show that not only is his arm sound but he can continue to play well and not become the guy that every team passed on. Trey has to show that he's improved his throwing motion and is ready to become the guy the 49ers traded up to get. Darnold needs to show why he was an early first round pick and prove that his failures so far have been largely because of poor coaches and average players around him.

The reason the Niners aren't the favorite to win the NFC is mainly because of question marks at QB. They're loaded at nearly every other position with the possible exception of O line. Every other favorite has an established top tier QB.

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
I think QB is a question mark for the Niners no matter which QB you like. Brock has to show that not only is his arm sound but he can continue to play well and not become the guy that every team passed on. Trey has to show that he's improved his throwing motion and is ready to become the guy the 49ers traded up to get. Darnold needs to show why he was an early first round pick and prove that his failures so far have been largely because of poor coaches and average players around him.

The reason the Niners aren't the favorite to win the NFC is mainly because of question marks at QB. They're loaded at nearly every other position with the possible exception of O line. Every other favorite has an established top tier QB.

The 49ers are ~ +350 to win the NFC while the Eagles are +300. That's pretty close to even and Philly is a well rounded team outside of QB, just like the 49ers. Brock as the season long starter is priced into those odds. They go in the other direction if another QB becomes the starter… if Brock were to snap his ankle in week 2 for example.

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
The fact that Trey is competing with Sam Darnold for the backup position should be a clear indicator to you that the 49ers aren't aching to give Trey another shot because of their investment. I agree he can play his way into the job, but he's not just looking at Purdy's performance as an obstacle, and the team isn't tailoring to his opportunity.

Of course people who want Purdy to start are thinking rationally. It's an easy call given what we have in front of us at this point, and to think the team hasn't effectively broadcasted this is a bad read of the situation.

Is that a fact?

The team says one thing but we don't know what they actually think inside the building. Them saying it's an open competition but Brock is the leader doesn't mean Brock is QB1 no matter what happens and Darnold and Lance battle it out for the other two spots.

And even if that was true, I guarantee you they're aching to give Trey the job because it means he's shown major improvement and gives them a chance to have that pick/trade work out for them which would be huge for their careers and the team.

Competition is a good thing. Let Trey bring his best stuff, hopefully Brock is healthy enough where they can get a look at both guys side by side on the same field, with the same players. That even goes for Darnold(although I worry about Sam less in practice as I do in games where the other team can hit him and wants to)

Get the best to play and we're hopefully in good shape.

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
I think QB is a question mark for the Niners no matter which QB you like. Brock has to show that not only is his arm sound but he can continue to play well and not become the guy that every team passed on. Trey has to show that he's improved his throwing motion and is ready to become the guy the 49ers traded up to get. Darnold needs to show why he was an early first round pick and prove that his failures so far have been largely because of poor coaches and average players around him.

The reason the Niners aren't the favorite to win the NFC is mainly because of question marks at QB. They're loaded at nearly every other position with the possible exception of O line. Every other favorite has an established top tier QB.

The 49ers are ~ +350 to win the NFC while the Eagles are +300. That's pretty close to even and Philly is a well rounded team outside of QB, just like the 49ers. Brock as the season long starter is priced into those odds. They go in the other direction if another QB becomes the starter… if Brock were to snap his ankle in week 2 for example.

This isn't really the thread for it but I'll be curious to see if the Eagles can hang with the higher expectations and what looks like a tough schedule on paper. They lost some big players and while their draft looks amazing on paper, we've seen that it doesn't always reflect on the field.

Also Eagles were the healthiest team in the league last year, can they keep that trend going after all the games they played last year?

I'm pretty confident if we stay as healthy as the Eagles did last season we're winning the whole thing!

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:

Originally posted by SinceXVI:
Not to mention the near guaranteed 3 points they passed on by failing to convert on 4th and 1, instead of kicking a 30 yard fg. The team arguably left 14 points on the field.

The Niners have invested a lot in Lance and will give him another shot, especially as they've seen him put in the work to improve.

The team is playing with house money with his development since they have Purdy.

He'll have training camp and two preseason games to prove he's ready to lead the team to contention.
If he's underwhelming, then Purdy starts week 1, if available.

If Lance looks good in training camp and preseason, then they'll delay Purdy's return for 2-3 weeks. If he plays well the team will stick with him until he either regresses and jeopardizes their season or get's injured.

This is counter to popular opinion that Purdy will be the guaranteed starter if healthy, but it's a plausible scenario given the team's investment and uncertain injury recovery timeline.

People aren't irrational for wanting Purdy to start week 1, and it wouldn't seem fair to bench him given last season's success. But football is a business about winning, money, and fate altering injuries.

The fact that Trey is competing with Sam Darnold for the backup position should be a clear indicator to you that the 49ers aren't aching to give Trey another shot because of their investment. I agree he can play his way into the job, but he's not just looking at Purdy's performance as an obstacle, and the team isn't tailoring to his opportunity.

Of course people who want Purdy to start are thinking rationally. It's an easy call given what we have in front of us at this point, and to think the team hasn't effectively broadcasted this is a bad read of the situation.

Yes he's splitting reps with Darnold, but mini-camp clips reveal that Trey was always #1 in the QB drills pecking order, and he certainly carried himself like it was his team.

Moreover, for all the hype about Darnold's abilities, Lance throws appeared better as they had to more velocity on the intermediate and deep passes, as well as quicker delivery on short passes as a result of his improved mechanics.

I strongly doubt Darnold is going to beat him out. He was brought here because the team needs depth.

Purdy had an amazing run last year, but Shanahan said that he believed that Trey would have been successful as well if he remained healthy.

Trey getting a shot to start is the most likely scenario. The team never said or acted as if they are all in on Purdy. He's "the leader in the clubhouse," but that's subject to change as conditions of his health and Lance's offseason development applies.

Originally posted by SinceXVI:
Yes he's splitting reps with Darnold, but mini-camp clips reveal that Trey was always #1 in the QB drills pecking order, and he certainly carried himself like it was his team.

Moreover, for all the hype about Darnold's abilities, Lance throws appeared better as they had to more velocity on the intermediate and deep passes, as well as quicker delivery on short passes as a result of his improved mechanics.

I strongly doubt Darnold is going to beat him out. He was brought here because the team needs depth.

Purdy had an amazing run last year, but Shanahan said that he believed that Trey would have been successful as well if he remained healthy.

Trey getting a shot to start is the most likely scenario. The team never said or acted as if they are all in on Purdy. He's "the leader in the clubhouse," but that's subject to change as conditions of his health and Lance's offseason development applies.

I'm not going to comment on or put stock in how these guys are performing in camp, because I can't see it. Certainly not going to draw conclusions off of clips from minicamp, lol.

I can see now though that you definitely don't have a good read on this situation, especially given that you think Trey getting a shot to start is the most likely scenario. That is near baseless at this point. Time will tell.