Dallas Cowboys QB Trey Lance Thread

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Best pick of all time is not the same as best player of all time. Value discussion since the picks given up for Trey is continually brought up.

Again if Brock plays like the small sample size the rest of his career he's gonna be that. Not saying he will or it's even realistic just that from a value standpoint you can't get better that the final pick turning into a star.

Even if he's just a couple time Pro bowler that would be enough to win us some sbs and offset the Trey investment.

Originally posted by GoreGoreGore:
I guess if we're just talking about 3rd draft picks sure.

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Best pick of all time is not the same as best player of all time. Value discussion since the picks given up for Trey is continually brought up.

Again if Brock plays like the small sample size the rest of his career he's gonna be that. Not saying he will or it's even realistic just that from a value standpoint you can't get better that the final pick turning into a star.

Even if he's just a couple time Pro bowler that would be enough to win us some sbs with this team and offset the Trey investment.

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
I wasn't touting QBR, or PFF as anything other than another statistical resource that can point a person in a direction. Beyond that, most quality football analysis is going to be subjective in some form or fashion. Basic stats like yards, completion percentage, passer rating, etc are going to tell us very little, especially without as much context as possible.

For example, you're arguing 424 yards is good no matter the opponent. Generating 23 points off of 424 yards is 18.43 yards per point, which would have ranked 30th out 32 teams extrapolated over the course of the 2021 season. Is that indicative of a good offensive performance? Not at all. And that's whether you think the Texans defense is terrible or average. I also don't think anyone would describe our 2021 Jimmy lead offense as anything remarkable, but again the point was to invest in the position and improve there. We have seen it clearly in the other direction in Lance's limited time. Once again… to be expected. But also, how is this a good thing for a team ready to win now, instead of 2 years down the road when Lance has taken his lumps and hopefully* improved like a Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, or Trevor Lawrence to a lesser extent.

I get there's a feeling we can play Trey and win games. To me it's just a feeling or a hope at this point as there isn't anything to actually support the idea and the limited evidence points in the other direction. The team is acting accordingly.

Issue with your analysis is it's devoid of circumstances.

We saw Lance improve within the game. Last I checked a game is still 4 quarters and not 2. Also each game is different. That's why you have a juggernaut Buffalo offense which averages 30 ppg score 6 points in a loss to a bottom 5 defense and the actual worst team in football.

Things happen in a game. Calls don't go your way, penalties kill drives or take away potential points. Both of those happened vs Houston. An actual Lance TD was wiped off the books cuz of a Bs holding call. No call on the throw to Aiyuk which imo was Trey's best throw of the day and should've been a TD if BA has his other hand to secure the catch. Refs throw the clear flag there and it's first and goal with time left to punch it in.

You and others make it sound like Lance needs X amount of reps until he's good enough to win. Clearly we can win with him when the team plays well overall but it's going to be tough with any QB if they're sloppy, committing crazy amount of penalties at bad times and turning the ball over. Trey has shown to be a quick learner and even in the first half of that Houston game he showed impressive things along with the bad.

It's hard to give him reps if Brock can play like he did last year because you're getting production you want and can't take the chance that Trey doesn't improve BUT fact is Trey doesn't need a year or two years to play before he's a quality QB here. He can develop as we win. He's not the type of QB to give games away with crazy turnovers where the rest of the team can't overcome his disaster.

We'll see if he gets his chance here though.

Originally posted by SLCNiner:
Keep telling yourself that. Maybe one day you'll view one of our WRs as better than Jerry because they weren't drafted in the 1st.

WHERE THEY WERE DRAFTED IS INCONSEQUENTIAL TO THEIR STATUS AS A GOOD PICK.

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by SLCNiner:
Keep telling yourself that. Maybe one day you'll view one of our WRs as better than Jerry because they weren't drafted in the 1st.

WHERE THEY WERE DRAFTED IS INCONSEQUENTIAL TO THEIR STATUS AS A GOOD PICK.

Again confusing value of the pick with the value of the player. TO was a better pick (value) but nowhere near the player.

The best Mr. Irrelevent ever right now is Ryan Succup for crying out loud.

Originally posted by SLCNiner:
If you were able to buy a great car for a low price, would that make it the best car you ever owned? Not me. Here, try a little of this.

https://www.nfl.com/photos/top-50-draft-picks-in-nfl-history-0ap3000000478222

And STOP replacing Joe with Brock before he's done a damn thing.

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by Bay2Bay9erAllday:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
It just struck me as odd as we burn three ones to hopefully have a guy on the level of the prior guy.

I prefer more bets, rather than one big bet, we made one very big bet on TL, as a club. If you look at NE, they got Mac, and also Cole Strange and Christian Gonzalez. They kept all their ones, and the blowback is a lot less impactful if Mac doesn't work out, cuz they at least have Strange and this CB who maybe will be really good.

And yet the 9ers have a guy who has at least shown glimpses of elite play in a small sample while New England has a guy who needs to be carried to wins because his sklllset is weak and has no real upside. Cole Strange and Christian Gonzalez won't make up for that. No Pat fan will be ok with Mac not working out because they have a starting nfl guard and possible solid cornerback. Only way it doesn't blow back if Mac fails is if Bailey Zappe is Brock 2.0.

The big bet the team can't miss on is giving huge money to Brock or Trey down the line.

What he's saying is Mac Jones for one pick > Trey Lance for three picks. I don't see how anyone could disagree with this, up until this point anyway.

you miss every shot you don't take.. drafting Mac is not taking a shot

We gambled and it hasn't worked out, so far

Again, Faithful's point is he prefers to have multiple "shots" rather than just one. I agree. Moving up in the first round (or at all) doesn't work out very often.

I have a feeling you might have to repeat this a couple more times lol

stop being stuck on the amount we gambled with. it didn't effect us. Now we're back to having a first rounder next year

Of course it affected us. Whoever we would have selected at 12 plus the picks we gave up could very well have contributed and gotten us over the hump at least once in the past two seasons. They absolutely would have contributed more than Trey has so far, we just don't know how much.

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by SLCNiner:
If you were able to buy a great car for a low price, would that make it the best car you ever owned? Not me. Here, try a little of this.

https://www.nfl.com/photos/top-50-draft-picks-in-nfl-history-0ap3000000478222

And STOP replacing Joe with Brock before he's done a damn thing.

I never replaced Joe.

If you got a Lambo for 500 bucks you aren't getting a better value buy ever. Doesn't mean it's the best car but it's clearly the best PURCHASE.

Again it's strictly a value discussion as there's the value of the draft pick and then there's the value of the player picked (both at the time and in hindsight). Different discussions.

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by SLCNiner:
Keep telling yourself that. Maybe one day you'll view one of our WRs as better than Jerry because they weren't drafted in the 1st.

WHERE THEY WERE DRAFTED IS INCONSEQUENTIAL TO THEIR STATUS AS A GOOD PICK.

Again confusing value of the pick with the value of the player. TO was a better pick (value) but nowhere near the player.

The best Mr. Irrelevent ever right now is Ryan Succup for crying out loud.

Originally posted by Jeepzilla:

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:

I wasn't touting QBR, or PFF as anything other than another statistical resource that can point a person in a direction. Beyond that, most quality football analysis is going to be subjective in some form or fashion. Basic stats like yards, completion percentage, passer rating, etc are going to tell us very little, especially without as much context as possible.

For example, you're arguing 424 yards is good no matter the opponent. Generating 23 points off of 424 yards is 18.43 yards per point, which would have ranked 30th out 32 teams extrapolated over the course of the 2021 season. Is that indicative of a good offensive performance? Not at all. And that's whether you think the Texans defense is terrible or average. I also don't think anyone would describe our 2021 Jimmy lead offense as anything remarkable, but again the point was to invest in the position and improve there. We have seen it clearly in the other direction in Lance's limited time. Once again… to be expected. But also, how is this a good thing for a team ready to win now, instead of 2 years down the road when Lance has taken his lumps and hopefully* improved like a Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, or Trevor Lawrence to a lesser extent.

I get there's a feeling we can play Trey and win games. To me it's just a feeling or a hope at this point as there isn't anything to actually support the idea and the limited evidence points in the other direction. The team is acting accordingly.

Issue with your analysis is it's devoid of circumstances.

We saw Lance improve within the game. Last I checked a game is still 4 quarters and not 2. Also each game is different. That's why you have a juggernaut Buffalo offense which averages 30 ppg score 6 points in a loss to a bottom 5 defense and the actual worst team in football.

Things happen in a game. Calls don't go your way, penalties kill drives or take away potential points. Both of those happened vs Houston. An actual Lance TD was wiped off the books cuz of a Bs holding call. No call on the throw to Aiyuk which imo was Trey's best throw of the day and should've been a TD if BA has his other hand to secure the catch. Refs throw the clear flag there and it's first and goal with time left to punch it in.

You and others make it sound like Lance needs X amount of reps until he's good enough to win. Clearly we can win with him when the team plays well overall but it's going to be tough with any QB if they're sloppy, committing crazy amount of penalties at bad times and turning the ball over. Trey has shown to be a quick learner and even in the first half of that Houston game he showed impressive things along with the bad.

It's hard to give him reps if Brock can play like he did last year because you're getting production you want and can't take the chance that Trey doesn't improve BUT fact is Trey doesn't need a year or two years to play before he's a quality QB here. He can develop as we win. He's not the type of QB to give games away with crazy turnovers where the rest of the team can't overcome his disaster.

We'll see if he gets his chance here though.

"BUT fact is Trey doesn't need a year or two years to play before he's a quality QB here. He can develop as we win. He's not the type of QB to give games away with crazy turnovers where the rest of the team can't overcome his disaster."

FACT!!!???
lol

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by Bay2Bay9erAllday:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

It just struck me as odd as we burn three ones to hopefully have a guy on the level of the prior guy.

I prefer more bets, rather than one big bet, we made one very big bet on TL, as a club. If you look at NE, they got Mac, and also Cole Strange and Christian Gonzalez. They kept all their ones, and the blowback is a lot less impactful if Mac doesn't work out, cuz they at least have Strange and this CB who maybe will be really good.

And yet the 9ers have a guy who has at least shown glimpses of elite play in a small sample while New England has a guy who needs to be carried to wins because his sklllset is weak and has no real upside. Cole Strange and Christian Gonzalez won't make up for that. No Pat fan will be ok with Mac not working out because they have a starting nfl guard and possible solid cornerback. Only way it doesn't blow back if Mac fails is if Bailey Zappe is Brock 2.0.

The big bet the team can't miss on is giving huge money to Brock or Trey down the line.

What he's saying is Mac Jones for one pick > Trey Lance for three picks. I don't see how anyone could disagree with this, up until this point anyway.

you miss every shot you don't take.. drafting Mac is not taking a shot

We gambled and it hasn't worked out, so far

Again, Faithful's point is he prefers to have multiple "shots" rather than just one. I agree. Moving up in the first round (or at all) doesn't work out very often.

I have a feeling you might have to repeat this a couple more times lol

stop being stuck on the amount we gambled with. it didn't effect us. Now we're back to having a first rounder next year

Of course it affected us. Whoever we would have selected at 12 plus the picks we gave up could very well have contributed and gotten us over the hump at least once in the past two seasons. They absolutely would have contributed more than Trey has so far, we just don't know how much.

That is not affecting us. Affecting us would be us losing games or not making the playoffs or screwing up the future of the franchise. none of that happened

The only position that can get us over the hump, is a better QB... and its still the same issue today.

Originally posted by CharlieSheen:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by Bay2Bay9erAllday:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
It just struck me as odd as we burn three ones to hopefully have a guy on the level of the prior guy.

I prefer more bets, rather than one big bet, we made one very big bet on TL, as a club. If you look at NE, they got Mac, and also Cole Strange and Christian Gonzalez. They kept all their ones, and the blowback is a lot less impactful if Mac doesn't work out, cuz they at least have Strange and this CB who maybe will be really good.

And yet the 9ers have a guy who has at least shown glimpses of elite play in a small sample while New England has a guy who needs to be carried to wins because his sklllset is weak and has no real upside. Cole Strange and Christian Gonzalez won't make up for that. No Pat fan will be ok with Mac not working out because they have a starting nfl guard and possible solid cornerback. Only way it doesn't blow back if Mac fails is if Bailey Zappe is Brock 2.0.

The big bet the team can't miss on is giving huge money to Brock or Trey down the line.

What he's saying is Mac Jones for one pick > Trey Lance for three picks. I don't see how anyone could disagree with this, up until this point anyway.

you miss every shot you don't take.. drafting Mac is not taking a shot

We gambled and it hasn't worked out, so far

Again, Faithful's point is he prefers to have multiple "shots" rather than just one. I agree. Moving up in the first round (or at all) doesn't work out very often.

I have a feeling you might have to repeat this a couple more times lol

stop being stuck on the amount we gambled with. it didn't effect us. Now we're back to having a first rounder next year

Of course it affected us. Whoever we would have selected at 12 plus the picks we gave up could very well have contributed and gotten us over the hump at least once in the past two seasons. They absolutely would have contributed more than Trey has so far, we just don't know how much.

That is not affecting us. Affecting us would be us losing games or not making the playoffs or screwing up the future of the franchise. none of that happened

The only position that can get us over the hump, is a better QB... and its still the same issue today.

Tell that to the players. They are convinced they are SB champs with a healthy Brock, they don't think it's an issue. Unless it's Trey you want, yea it's still an issue

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by CharlieSheen:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by Bay2Bay9erAllday:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by Furlow:

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

It just struck me as odd as we burn three ones to hopefully have a guy on the level of the prior guy.

I prefer more bets, rather than one big bet, we made one very big bet on TL, as a club. If you look at NE, they got Mac, and also Cole Strange and Christian Gonzalez. They kept all their ones, and the blowback is a lot less impactful if Mac doesn't work out, cuz they at least have Strange and this CB who maybe will be really good.

And yet the 9ers have a guy who has at least shown glimpses of elite play in a small sample while New England has a guy who needs to be carried to wins because his sklllset is weak and has no real upside. Cole Strange and Christian Gonzalez won't make up for that. No Pat fan will be ok with Mac not working out because they have a starting nfl guard and possible solid cornerback. Only way it doesn't blow back if Mac fails is if Bailey Zappe is Brock 2.0.

The big bet the team can't miss on is giving huge money to Brock or Trey down the line.

What he's saying is Mac Jones for one pick > Trey Lance for three picks. I don't see how anyone could disagree with this, up until this point anyway.

you miss every shot you don't take.. drafting Mac is not taking a shot

We gambled and it hasn't worked out, so far

Again, Faithful's point is he prefers to have multiple "shots" rather than just one. I agree. Moving up in the first round (or at all) doesn't work out very often.

I have a feeling you might have to repeat this a couple more times lol

stop being stuck on the amount we gambled with. it didn't effect us. Now we're back to having a first rounder next year

Of course it affected us. Whoever we would have selected at 12 plus the picks we gave up could very well have contributed and gotten us over the hump at least once in the past two seasons. They absolutely would have contributed more than Trey has so far, we just don't know how much.

That is not affecting us. Affecting us would be us losing games or not making the playoffs or screwing up the future of the franchise. none of that happened

The only position that can get us over the hump, is a better QB... and its still the same issue today.

Tell that to the players. They are convinced they are SB champs with a healthy Brock, they don't think it's an issue. Unless it's Trey you want, yea it's still an issue

Brock has a long way to go before anyone can say we are set at QB. Adding a major injury to his journey makes his odds even worse.

I don't care who the QB is, just get it done.