NFL Breaking News Thread-2024 Edition

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
Lance was the 3rd overall pick and 3rd QB selected and he was about as raw a prospect ever drafted that high. By far and away the best chance to get a franchise QB is the number 1 overall pick, historically. There is no other draft slot or area that is anywhere near as likely.

Obviously that doesn't mean you're going to hit when you take one there. And again, you really can't compare what is the better value between a selected player at the 1st pick and a trade haul until you see results down the road. Howlett didn't get the point, as I wasn't arguing what will be the better decision this season… only that if the Bears want a franchise QB (which we know they do), they're in a better position with the 1st pick to land one than if they traded out based on the history of the league. It shouldn't be controversial.

I would argue while pick 1 gives you best player performance if you aggregate over NFL history, pick 2 isn't that far behind. At least let me say it this way, the gap between player performance pick 2 vs pick 1 isn't as large as the draft picks teams demand to move from pick 2 to pick 1.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
I would argue while pick 1 gives you best player performance if you aggregate over NFL history, pick 2 isn't that far behind. At least let me say it this way, the gap between player performance pick 2 vs pick 1 isn't as large as the draft picks teams demand to move from pick 2 to pick 1.

I know you would argue this. You have before and if IIRC correctly I posted 3 different analysis that show it is not correct specifically from the QB position. Historically it's a wide gap between the hit rate at the number 1 and 2 picks, though it does bounce around a little bit through the first round (with the 1st pick being the clear best spot regardless). Here is one of the three articles:

https://www.hogshaven.com/2021/4/9/22375270/is-there-a-sweet-spot-for-drafting-quarterbacks

One of the other two studies was from PFF and it plotted the hit rate throughout the entire draft. These can be found where I posted them last in the Justin Fields thread. Obviously we can adjust the above study to include Stroud last year.

Now beyond data based arguments look at what you're actually seeing, or is actually being reported, and compare it to your theory. You believe the 2nd overall pick isn't a meaningful drop off but reportedly the team that currently holds the 2nd offered a large haul to move up to that 1st pick instead and the team that held the 1st pick said no. There is a reason for this, as I mentioned in my earlier post. It's not randomly expensive, lol.

edit: I should add that I have no idea where that report came from and if it's a legitimate source and story.

Originally posted by krizay:

Originally posted by MucketyMuck:
If he's the generational talent that he's supposed to be then theres no way you trade that first pick. Personally I think hes Kyler Murray and mostly hype

Im in the same boat.

I personally wouldn't trade that for Patrick Mahomes if I'm being honest

Originally posted by Afrikan:

All good. The Chiefs definitely wouldn't take the offer regardless. He's effectively invaluable.

Originally posted by Afrikan:

Originally posted by krizay:

Originally posted by MucketyMuck:
If he's the generational talent that he's supposed to be then theres no way you trade that first pick. Personally I think hes Kyler Murray and mostly hype

Im in the same boat.

I personally wouldn't trade that for Patrick Mahomes if I'm being honest

Im not a believer in the whole Franchise QB mumbo jumbo.

Most of the QBs who win superbowls is because of systems in place not necessarily because of the QB. Yes you can upgrade the QB to push you over the hump but alot of the upgrade very easily can be attributed to the upgrade being he just fits what the system calls for.

As it relates to Mahomes, I will be the 1st to say he's the best in the game today. However, we didn't lose either superbowl because of Mahomes. JG out played him for yhe majority of the game and his turning point was a punt pass to Tyreek because the DB didn't play the way he was coached. He ad libed and it cost us. Then the flood gates open.

This past SB Purdy was going toe to toe with him down the stretch. I wouldn't say Mahomes was the deciding factor. Our OL was more of a factor in us losing than Mahomes was in KC winning IMO. Mahomes was held to 16 points at the 2 minute warning in the 4th qtr.

IMO if Patrick Mahomes was on the Bears in that system instead of Fields he would be Justin Herbert. Everyone talking about your talent and waiting for it to result in wins.

Originally posted by krizay:

Originally posted by Afrikan:

Originally posted by krizay:

Originally posted by MucketyMuck:
If he's the generational talent that he's supposed to be then theres no way you trade that first pick. Personally I think hes Kyler Murray and mostly hype

Im in the same boat.

I personally wouldn't trade that for Patrick Mahomes if I'm being honest

Im not a believer in the whole Franchise QB mumbo jumbo.

Most of the QBs who win superbowls is because of systems in place not necessarily because of the QB. Yes you can upgrade the QB to push you over the hump but alot of the upgrade very easily can be attributed to the upgrade being he just fits what the system calls for.

As it relates to Mahomes, I will be the 1st to say he's the best in the game today. However, we didn't lose either superbowl because of Mahomes. JG out played him for yhe majority of the game and his turning point was a punt pass to Tyreek because the DB didn't play the way he was coached. He ad libed and it cost us. Then the flood gates open.

This past SB Purdy was going toe to toe with him down the stretch. I wouldn't say Mahomes was the deciding factor. Our OL was more of a factor in us losing than Mahomes was in KC winning IMO. Mahomes was held to 16 points at the 2 minute warning in the 4th qtr.

IMO if Patrick Mahomes was on the Bears in that system instead of Fields he would be Justin Herbert. Everyone talking about your talent and waiting for it to result in wins.

Mahomes was outplayed by JG and Purdy in those SBs but in crunch time he made the plays and they didn't. That's one thing that separates the greats from the good or average QBs.

i get the feeling this is the same as their old unis. they are just hyping it as 'new'

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
i get the feeling this is the same as their old unis. they are just hyping it as 'new'

They're here and they're beautiful. pic.twitter.com/XAS3YBbTHU

— New York Jets (@nyjets) April 15, 2024

Here's their uniforms from the past few years.



The new uniforms are basically the 80s and 90s uniforms, just updated for 2024. They brought the all whites back as an alternate last year as well.

Also, the Jaguars announced their going to have a throwback uniform

Originally posted by linkboy:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
i get the feeling this is the same as their old unis. they are just hyping it as 'new'

They're here and they're beautiful. pic.twitter.com/XAS3YBbTHU

— New York Jets (@nyjets) April 15, 2024

Here's their uniforms from the past few years.



The new uniforms are basically the 80s and 90s uniforms, just updated for 2024. They brought the all whites back as an alternate last year as well.

Also, the Jaguars announced their going to have a throwback uniform

Back by popular demand.#DUUUVAL pic.twitter.com/2JRvFJhIWq

— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) April 15, 2024

I know the Jags have been around a while but I just don't feel like they've been around long enough to have a throwback. f**k I'm getting old

Originally posted by Hysterikal:
I know the Jags have been around a while but I just don't feel like they've been around long enough to have a throwback. f**k I'm getting old

They were established in 93, first played in 95. That's 28 to 30 years depending on the date.

I feel you on the getting old part. I just turned 42 and I definitely feel it some days.

Originally posted by linkboy:

Originally posted by Hysterikal:
I know the Jags have been around a while but I just don't feel like they've been around long enough to have a throwback. f**k I'm getting old

They were established in 93, first played in 95. That's 28 to 30 years depending on the date.

I feel you on the getting old part. I just turned 42 and I definitely feel it some days.

I guess in my head if the uniform wasn't worn with leather helmets then it ain't a throwback lol

This was Jacksonville's best look by far. They never should have abandoned these. A rare case where a custom font actually works really well with the teams overall motif.

Originally posted by LayTheWoodall:

This was Jacksonville's best look by far. They never should have abandoned these. A rare case where a custom font actually works really well with the teams overall motif.

Amen brother

Originally posted by LayTheWoodall:

This was Jacksonville's best look by far. They never should have abandoned these. A rare case where a custom font actually works really well with the teams overall motif.

Someone posted this on the Jaguars sub-reddit and it looks great.



That would be a perfect way to update the 90s uniforms.

Originally posted by linkboy:

Originally posted by LayTheWoodall:

This was Jacksonville's best look by far. They never should have abandoned these. A rare case where a custom font actually works really well with the teams overall motif.

Someone posted this on the Jaguars sub-reddit and it looks great.



That would be a perfect way to update the 90s uniforms.

Not bad, but the metallic sheen on the old jerseys works so well with that teal color, better than the matte version in the update IMO. Also kinda prefer the white pants