New homegrown QB rating metric. Jimmy "controversially" ranks 12th...

Originally posted by captveg:

Any system that gives more credence to 4th quarter performance isn't gonna do any favors to a guy who plays the 4th quarter in monsoon.

Wonder how it would look for playoffs rankings.

Originally posted by Strwy2Hevn:

Originally posted by captveg:
Any system that gives more credence to 4th quarter performance isn't gonna do any favors to a guy who plays the 4th quarter in monsoon.

Wonder how it would look for playoffs rankings.

True. I think I'll do one more adjustment though. Running first downs are being dramatically deflated in value. So, instead, since a first down is a first down, I think I'll simply combine all first downs and check the win correlation with that.

And in fact total first downs has an extremely high win correlation (0.8623, and a coefficient of determination of 0.7436). So I feel like it's unfair to separate rushing first downs from passing first downs, since OF COURSE rushing first downs per attempt isn't going to correlate as highly with winning, since so few QBs are really mobile. But on the other hand, a key first down on 3rd and 13 on the ground is as crucial as a pass for a first down in the same scenario.

If I include that instead of the passing for first down metric, Lance's numbers will improve a bit.

But regardless, it's just one game. All metrics will return to the mean with more data points. Lance's regular passer rating was also in the 50s, and so was his Total QBR. Give him more games to really understand where he's at.

Would you be interested in doing a rankings list based on your formula for the 2022 season so far?