QB Sam Darnold is a Viking

Originally posted by thl408:
It seems very subjective. And when I sort for the leaders in CPOE I see Trubisky, Geno, and Brissett lead the league. To me, that's the first sign that the stat isn't very telling of how good a QB is. Feel free to hang on to it and if Darnold plays well, making tight window throws, then that's good. But some stats simply don't tell much, and right now I'm lumping this stat into that category.

From that link, I clicked Glossary:
Completion Probability: The probability of a pass completion, based on numerous factors such as receiver separation from the nearest defender, where the receiver is on the field, the separation the passer had at time of throw from the nearest pass rusher, and more.

Expected Completion Percentage (xCOMP): Using a passer's Completion Probability on every play, determine what a passer's completion percentage is expected to be.

Completion Percentage Above Expectation (+/-): A passer's actual completion percentage compared to their Expected Completion Percentage.

These are very advanced metrics used by experts and NFL teams. Trubisky had a high CPOE but also had an INT issue. Geno was a Pro Bowler and Brissett had a +6% better completion percentage than Deshaun Watson playing in the same offense.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by dayswwneskoqnazfma:

Originally posted by thl408:
Explain it to me. I'm here to learn. What is CPOE?

Completion percentage over expected, which Darnold excelled in and Purdy and JImmy G didn't. Shanahan's offense gets receivers open while Darnold quarterbacked in offenses that have that.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#completionPercentageAboveExpectation

It seems very subjective. And when I sort for the leaders in CPOE I see Trubisky, Geno, and Brissett lead the league. To me, that's the first sign that the stat isn't very telling of how good a QB is. Feel free to hang on to it and if Darnold plays well, making tight window throws, then that's good. But some stats simply don't tell much, and right now I'm lumping this stat into that category.

From that link, I clicked Glossary:
Completion Probability: The probability of a pass completion, based on numerous factors such as receiver separation from the nearest defender, where the receiver is on the field, the separation the passer had at time of throw from the nearest pass rusher, and more.

Expected Completion Percentage (xCOMP): Using a passer's Completion Probability on every play, determine what a passer's completion percentage is expected to be.

Completion Percentage Above Expectation (+/-): A passer's actual completion percentage compared to their Expected Completion Percentage.

I would say, it seems very objective, in that they are using real data, for example you can know the distance between two players on the field, that's the separation of the receiver, and also how clean the pocket is. Now if you are questioning if the number soup they plug this into to get the completion probability is truly accurate, that's reasonable, but I don't think it's entirely out of the question. If they have been doing this for years, they are probably stacking that throw distance, and the pocket and the separation of the receiver, against their database of other similar throws over the last handful of years (however long they have been tracking). I don't think the intent of the metric is 'how good the QB is'. I think it's what percent is this guy completing, relative to the league average or expectation. I as a general rule don't rely on any of this to inform my decisions on QB play. I'll watch em play personally.

To me, not all situations are similar when a WR has one yard of separation on a defender. I don't know enough from just reading those short definitions provided from the Glossary but it doesn't tell me enough that I am convinced it is a "very objective" stat. Again, not all situations where a WR has a certain amount of separation, or a QB has a muddy pocket are the same.

Originally posted by dayswwneskoqnazfma:

Originally posted by thl408:
It seems very subjective. And when I sort for the leaders in CPOE I see Trubisky, Geno, and Brissett lead the league. To me, that's the first sign that the stat isn't very telling of how good a QB is. Feel free to hang on to it and if Darnold plays well, making tight window throws, then that's good. But some stats simply don't tell much, and right now I'm lumping this stat into that category.

From that link, I clicked Glossary:
Completion Probability: The probability of a pass completion, based on numerous factors such as receiver separation from the nearest defender, where the receiver is on the field, the separation the passer had at time of throw from the nearest pass rusher, and more.

Expected Completion Percentage (xCOMP): Using a passer's Completion Probability on every play, determine what a passer's completion percentage is expected to be.

Completion Percentage Above Expectation (+/-): A passer's actual completion percentage compared to their Expected Completion Percentage.

These are very advanced metrics used by experts and NFL teams. Trubisky had a high CPOE but also had an INT issue. Geno was a Pro Bowler and Brissett had a +6% better completion percentage than Deshaun Watson playing in the same offense.

Sounds good. If Darnold plays a snap for the 49ers, I hope he does very well.

Originally posted by thl408:
To me, not all situations are similar when a WR has one yard of separation on a defender. I don't know enough from just reading those short definitions provided from the Glossary but it doesn't tell me enough that I am convinced it is a "very objective" stat. Again, not all situations where a WR has a certain amount of separation, or a QB has a muddy pocket are the same.

Sure, that's the subjective aspect. It seems to just be considering the objective aspect, which is what is the distance between player x and y. Also what is the distance between QB and nearest rusher, another x and y. And what is the throw distance I am sure they would factor.

I agree with you, in that I don't put a lot of weight in this, if any weight at all. Show me the QB let me watch him play. I like what I see when I watch Sam Darnold. That's a sentence I never thought I would say.. but to be fair I never truly watched the guy, I just was aware he was getting his butt whupped each week in NYJ and CAR. But he's a pretty darn good player, I think those situations sucked. Is my take.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by thl408:
To me, not all situations are similar when a WR has one yard of separation on a defender. I don't know enough from just reading those short definitions provided from the Glossary but it doesn't tell me enough that I am convinced it is a "very objective" stat. Again, not all situations where a WR has a certain amount of separation, or a QB has a muddy pocket are the same.

Sure, that's the subjective aspect. It seems to just be considering the objective aspect, which is what is the distance between player x and y. Also what is the distance between QB and nearest rusher, another x and y. And what is the throw distance I am sure they would factor.

I agree with you, in that I don't put a lot of weight in this, if any weight at all. Show me the QB let me watch him play. I like what I see when I watch Sam Darnold. That's a sentence I never thought I would say.. but to be fair I never truly watched the guy, I just was aware he was getting his butt whupped each week in NYJ and CAR. But he's a pretty darn good player, I think those situations sucked. Is my take.

italics
That's the part that is not the same in all situations.

Agreed on the bolded. One situation where a CPOE may go up, but isn't warranted, is if the QB makes the incorrect read and forces a tight window throw, or if a QB hangs onto the ball too long, misses the optimal window to throw the ball, then makes the completion more difficult than it needed to be. In both cases, CPOE goes up, but it didn't need to that difficult had the QB executed the play the way it was intended.

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by thl408:
To me, not all situations are similar when a WR has one yard of separation on a defender. I don't know enough from just reading those short definitions provided from the Glossary but it doesn't tell me enough that I am convinced it is a "very objective" stat. Again, not all situations where a WR has a certain amount of separation, or a QB has a muddy pocket are the same.

Sure, that's the subjective aspect. It seems to just be considering the objective aspect, which is what is the distance between player x and y. Also what is the distance between QB and nearest rusher, another x and y. And what is the throw distance I am sure they would factor.

I agree with you, in that I don't put a lot of weight in this, if any weight at all. Show me the QB let me watch him play. I like what I see when I watch Sam Darnold. That's a sentence I never thought I would say.. but to be fair I never truly watched the guy, I just was aware he was getting his butt whupped each week in NYJ and CAR. But he's a pretty darn good player, I think those situations sucked. Is my take.

italics
That's the part that is not the same in all situations.

Agreed on the bolded. One situation where a CPOE may go up, but isn't warranted, is if the QB makes the incorrect read and forces a tight window throw, or if a QB hangs onto the ball too long, misses the optimal window to throw the ball, then makes the completion more difficult than it needed to be. In both cases, CPOE goes up, but it didn't have been that difficult had the QB executed the play the way it was intended.

Yup that's something I thought of, you could technically have a dude wide as bleep open for a TD and you don't see him and your CPOE goes up, based on what you do on that play. It's not factoring the entire field. It's looking at a few objective data points is my understanding. Distance between intended receiver and nearest defender, distance between QB and nearest rusher, distance of throw. That's my understanding of it. They crunch all that into a probability of catch matrix. There is an expression on a lot of these advanced analytics, garbage in, garbage out. I don't think you would be able to glean much of what was going on in games, if you had to rely on this metric alone.

Originally posted by thl408:
italics
That's the part that is not the same in all situations.

Agreed on the bolded. One situation where a CPOE may go up, but isn't warranted, is if the QB makes the incorrect read and forces a tight window throw, or if a QB hangs onto the ball too long, misses the optimal window to throw the ball, then makes the completion more difficult than it needed to be. In both cases, CPOE goes up, but it didn't need to that difficult had the QB executed the play the way it was intended.

Get this. Darnold had a high CPOE and a high yards per attempt rate (which was higher than Mahomes, Purdy, Hurts, Jimmy G, Allen), which obviously says he made the right reads. Those are elite tier stats.

Originally posted by dayswwneskoqnazfma:

Originally posted by thl408:
italics
That's the part that is not the same in all situations.

Agreed on the bolded. One situation where a CPOE may go up, but isn't warranted, is if the QB makes the incorrect read and forces a tight window throw, or if a QB hangs onto the ball too long, misses the optimal window to throw the ball, then makes the completion more difficult than it needed to be. In both cases, CPOE goes up, but it didn't need to that difficult had the QB executed the play the way it was intended.

Get this. Darnold had a high CPOE and a high yards per attempt rate (which was higher than Mahomes, Purdy, Hurts, Jimmy G, Allen), which obviously says he made the right reads. Those are elite tier stats.

lol, yet he wouldn't have a job if Kyle didn't like him

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
lol, yet he wouldn't have a job if Kyle didn't like him

the guy signed day 1 of FA, if you listen to Steve Young and others, I hear he could have had more $$, he chose SF, wanted to sign here, Steve said he was smart for choosing SF.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
lol, yet he wouldn't have a job if Kyle didn't like him

the guy signed day 1 of FA, if you listen to Steve Young and others, I hear he could have had more $$, he chose SF, wanted to sign here, Steve said he was smart for choosing SF.

could have is different than would have

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
lol, yet he wouldn't have a job if Kyle didn't like him

the guy signed day 1 of FA, if you listen to Steve Young and others, I hear he could have had more $$, he chose SF, wanted to sign here, Steve said he was smart for choosing SF.

could have is different than would have

he would have had a job; your comment that he would be unemployed, but for SF, is simply your opinion man, and a wrong opinion, in my opinion

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
lol, yet he wouldn't have a job if Kyle didn't like him

the guy signed day 1 of FA, if you listen to Steve Young and others, I hear he could have had more $$, he chose SF, wanted to sign here, Steve said he was smart for choosing SF.

could have is different than would have

he would have had a job; your comment that he would be unemployed, but for SF, is simply your opinion man, and a wrong opinion, in my opinion

no other teams were ever reported that he turned down and for how much.

Just the facts

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
lol, yet he wouldn't have a job if Kyle didn't like him

the guy signed day 1 of FA, if you listen to Steve Young and others, I hear he could have had more $$, he chose SF, wanted to sign here, Steve said he was smart for choosing SF.

could have is different than would have

he would have had a job; your comment that he would be unemployed, but for SF, is simply your opinion man, and a wrong opinion, in my opinion

no other teams were ever reported that he turned down and for how much.

Just the facts

mr att, you gotta try a lot harder than that.. what is this? preseason is over I expect regular season style posts, I know it's week 1, but come on man
get a few more reps, and come back and see me

Originally posted by dayswwneskoqnazfma:

Originally posted by thl408:
italics
That's the part that is not the same in all situations.

Agreed on the bolded. One situation where a CPOE may go up, but isn't warranted, is if the QB makes the incorrect read and forces a tight window throw, or if a QB hangs onto the ball too long, misses the optimal window to throw the ball, then makes the completion more difficult than it needed to be. In both cases, CPOE goes up, but it didn't need to that difficult had the QB executed the play the way it was intended.

Get this. Darnold had a high CPOE and a high yards per attempt rate (which was higher than Mahomes, Purdy, Hurts, Jimmy G, Allen), which obviously says he made the right reads. Those are elite tier stats.

So why has he played so poorly so far in his career if he has so many "elite" metrics?

Originally posted by GoreGoreGore:
So why has he played so poorly so far in his career if he has so many "elite" metrics?

Two sides of the coin. One side is this dude sucks. The other side is he's been in BS situations. It's confirmed he can't will a total crap org to being a front runner, in other words, he's no Peyton Manning. Watch him play, I think he moves well and he spins it really well. With guys open here, elite weapons, elite playcaller, I think he would play darn good football. Just my opinion. QB play in the NFL is very situation based. You're gonna look better with Andy Reid and HOF guys like Hill or Kelce than you would with Jim Hostler 07 49er BS football.