Originally posted by jonnydel:
Here's a missed opportunity in the game. This is what I'm talking about when I say that Kap's just a little slow in his reads.

Here, we start out in 22 Personnel. We motion VD over to the bottom.

It looks like Kap is trying to ask Miller to chip block - that's what I'd assume considering how the play is drawn up.

We then motion VM over to the top of the screen.

From here, we're going to run almost the same play the first INT came on - just out of a different formation and this time, we give a little better zone help on the backside.

Our play action fake does bring a couple guys up.

It looks like Oakland was focused on trying to take Boldin out of the passing game. You see the LB and Woodson close on Boldin's curl route. Oakland plays the concept side well. What CK needs to to here is move through this progression very quickly. You see the concept side is well covered - why? Because your two middle defenders are covering Boldin - that means the middle of the field will be open - you have an intermediate middle route on the backside.

You see Kap's not under immediate pressure, he's got an open VD - but he doesn't get to that read quick enough.

'From the endzone view you could see he was looking at VD's route - but he pulls down his throw - probably because it was coming a little late(I still think he could've gotten it in but I think he was scared of throwing another pick to the safety). He got to the right read, just too slow. He has to get through those reads faster. This is what Steve Young talked about when he said that these reads and knowing where to go on every play against every defense until it's reflexive. It's not reflexive yet, he's still digesting everything as it's happening and looking more at his receivers than the defenders.

After he pulls it down he gets sacked for 3 yards. Could've had a first down and move the ball, but instead....This is a sack that's on CK.
Jonnydel:
Good breakdown and I like the tie-in to Young's comments about being "reflexive." Given that Kap has made simple reads many times before, I have to conclude it's more than just a simple narrative that "he sucks now" or "Roman's awful" or something else. It seems to me that the degredation of the OL play (injuries, holdout, lack of leadership, ineffectiveness, etc) has had a cumulative effect on Colin. The OL is not bad on every play, and there are throws to be made (like above) that should be made quickly. But Colin is skittish because (1) the cumulative effect of the bad OL play has made him see ghosts, and (2) he desperately wants to make the big throw every play so he's forcing things and it is snowballing. He's trying so hard that he's making routine mistakes. This is all correctable, but in the offseason, not now. Do you agree with this or am I being too easy on him and you think Kap has been "unmasked?"
To me, this guy can be great but he has a long way to go. We gotta figure out how to get him better protection by rebuilding the OL somewhat. Then, we gotta either find a similar offensive system with a new HC, or find a system that Kap could learn quickly from a HC who is invested in him. Then we gotta restore the power run identity and keep allowing Kap to grow as a passer. Take the gradual approach instead of throwing him in completely into a full-field reading process.
I also had another thought I'd like to check against yours and thl408's film study. It seemed to me Kilgore was really coming into his own before he got hurt against Denver. I started thinking about it and outside of the Saints game, I cannot think of any game in which Kap looked quite as good navigating the pass game, field reads, and pocket after Kilgore went down. In the rams game prior to the Denver game, Gruden was praising Kap's play from the pocket.
In every game after the Denver game, the OL has appeared to play worse, and Kap's play from the pocket slowly degraded and the progress that was there slowly dried up. I wonder if losing Kilgore had a bigger impact on the overall cohesion on the line and Kap's comfort than we all thought?