Originally posted by thl408:
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True Pass Set Pressure Rate rankings by True Pass Set Snaps.
I do want to give the PP a bit more credit here even though these appear pretty accurate even by the eye test.
Brock currently has a 2.81 TTT (NextGen) which is middle of the pack. Typically under Kyle, all of his QB's have been top 5 in fastest TTT...like Tagovailoa in Miami (#1 @ 2.36) rendering PP as moot as possible.
In addition, Brock is 12th in air yards @ 8.3. In short, by holding the ball longer, and attempting longer intermediate and deeper passes, it puts more stress on PP (the whole unit).
Context.
I agree....that passes the eye test....
There is time to throw (subjective, how long till pressure effects the QB) and time till throw, the latter tracks from snap to throw what the actual time is.
Brock's time till throw (according to FantasyPros) is 2.6 seconds, that is way up from earlier in the season when he was at floating between 2.2 and 2.3 for like half the season. That more or less tracks with the eyeball test. Early in the season we were all commenting how we are not seeing rolls to the left or right or anything.
No one in the NFL has as many 20-30-40-50 combine completions. Brock is tied for 13th for completions 10 yards or less. He is 2nd in 20+, 2nd in 30+, 1st in 40+ and 10th in 50+ ( he has 2 and there are 9 people that are tied with 3) He simply is not looking short, and is holding onto the ball.
Brock does invite pressure looking deep...but for the most part it is working.
Agree💯%, it makes sense that Brock is going for the gusto by throwing longer. His accuracy is insane. It's Drew Brees level.
Just FYI
Brees Last full season he hit 74% of his throws. He had 58 20+ throws, 18 30+ throws, 6 40+ throws.
Compared to a partial season by Brock hitting 70% of his throws with 43 20+ throws, 17 30+throws, 7 40+ throws.
Unless Brock goes down odds are he is going to have more deeper throws than Brees, he already has as many 50+ yard throws...they both have 2, he has more 40+ throws already and will likely have significantly more 30+ yard throws.
Great points. So how does one reconcile Kyle's accurate short passing game centered around the play action run game, vs Purdy's insane long range Brees-like accuracy? I don't know personally, I watched Montana and Young and have never had entertained the thought of tweaking Walsh's offense to add more long ball dimensions under either legendary QB's. But the way Purdy's playing, if Kyle gets more speedsters a la Danny Gray for Purdy, I wouldn't argue - so long as Kyle also drafts the requisite offensive linemen that can hold their pass protections longer. Brock's pinpoint accuracy is just simply *insane.*
Don't get me wrong. I live Kyle's short passing play action game centering around a wonderful back like CMC. I think it's a great system. Great Balance, between pass and run. Great all weather offense - good in bad weather and great in good weather. I think Kyle has a genius in picking running backs from the Kmart Discount Employment Bulltin board ads, so I wouldn't want wholesale changes in his offense - it's plenty good already. It's just that Brock's passing skills are just so *insane.*
I don't think Kyle's passing game is as centered around playaction as much as it used to be. Brock is ranked 21st in playaction dropback rate at 24.1%. Jimmy was ranked 4th in the league in 2019 his only full season at 31.9%. Jimmy had a handful of seasons in his career where he was well over 30%. But even Jimmy for the last 2 seasons with us he had a playaction dropback rate of 27.5% in 2021 and 22.0% in 2022.
24% is still a big number in terms of play calls though. One reason is simply that the 49ers actually can run the ball against 8 man fronts now with the kind of misdirections that the two headed Deebo/CMC WideBack's can offer against a defense.
Not compared to 20 other teams in the NFL though.
There are 32 NFL teams running different systems. Each to his own. I don't think Kyle has changed his offensive system, is my point. 24% is one Quarter of all the playcalls he can make. If you consider Kyle keeping as close to a 50/50 run-pass balance, that climbs to 50% just on the passing side of the equation.
Now if I'm reading your % breakdowns wrong and its 24% of only pass attempts, its still a big number.
Dropbacks not attempts. The statement was that Kyle's passing game is centered around playaction. If that were true, 63% of the league wouldn't be running more playaction than a coach who apparently centers his passing game around playaction. That may have been true back in 2019 when he was at the top of the league when it was damn near 1/3 of all dropbacks. Its just not true today when the % of playaction dropbacks is now less than 1/4 and is lower than majority of the league two years in a row now.
I still think Play action is a big part of Kyle's offense. Kyle's offense is 6th in running on the ground with a 4.5 yard average means that defenses can't tee off on Purdy and his passing. That may be one reason Kyle doesn't have to play action, simply because defenses *have* to play a base defense instead of nickel on Kyle's offense. Hence Kyle doesn't have to play action so much, as just a much more simple drop back off a the shotgun formation (for example). The fact that play action has been reduced in terms of percentage playcalls, doesn't mean it's *not* centered around the play action passing game.
This doesn't make any logical sense to me. Because centered to me means that everything else plays off of it. Which doesn't seem to be the case from what I can tell. We don't use playaction to set everything else up. Playaction is simply a tool in the tool box for when LB's and safeties start to overplay our running game. I see it ran a few times a game but not any amount that really sticks out to me. After looking at the numbers. Brock is averaging 31 dropbacks a game. At 24.1% playction rate, that's 7 dropbacks per game. Less than 1 per drive.
I just rewatched the opening first drive of the Seattle game - I counted two play action passes. So I don't know where you are getting your stats from.
Because of two plays on the opening drive in 1 of 11 games so far this season makes your case for a trend?
Yeah, specially if you can't tell me where you are getting your stats.
If you did you would still argue it lol. All of this just to make Jimmy look better 
He has no ammo for his argument. As far as I am concerned the debate on playaction is over and really isn't O line related anyway.
Dude, the Offensive line is **KEY** to the play action pass. Kye Shanahan is a master of the play action and it's been always a big part of his offense.
Kyle Shanahan's outside zone is incredibly effective and a great play in itself, but the 49ers offense thrives off of counters to their run game. The passing concepts off of outside zone are pretty simple, but stopping them is another issue. The first counter series off of outside zone is the play-action package.
https://weeklyspiral.com/2021/06/17/kyle-shanahans-play-action-scheme/#google_vignette
It's no secret that Kyle Shanahan loves the play-action passing. It's an integral part of how he builds his offense, and it's very effective when combined with the outside zone running scheme in particular.
https://www.ninersnation.com/2020/10/29/21538618/anatomy-of-a-play-detailing-the-49ers-play-action-drift-concept
Here's how each offensive position reacts to the play-action pass.
Offensive Line: The offensive line's key to playing action is to make it look like it's a run play. The lineman will fire out and make contact. However, they will not go downfield. They will either fire out 1 yard and make contact or kick-step backward like they normally would on a pass.
https://www.ninersnation.com/2020/10/29/21538618/anatomy-of-a-play-detailing-the-49ers-play-action-drift-concept
Of course the O line plays a role. The O line is involved in all aspects of the offense. But please tell me which part of our debate was about the O line and not about Kyle's scheme and frequency of use?
play action *is* a big part of Kyle's scheme. He hasn't gotten away from it at all. Purdy's development as a passer doesn't negate the fact that his offense still revolves around play action. 24% (from your stats) says that is still a big part of the offense.
Tell me there is another team that runs the ball more and passes the ball less than the 49ers? Being 22nd in the league in playaction dropback% does not scream " we center our offense around playaction." By the way, you straight up lied about coming out in the Seahawks game running playaction. Brock came out throwing the ball from shotgun.
You must have missed the quick play action to CMC. You should look better.
A quick fake handoff in shotgun isn't necessarily a playaction. It really depends on what the O line does on the play. If the O line is dropping into pass pro sets than it isn't considered a playaction. Why? Because its the run blocking element from the O line that draws the linebackers up.
Is that how the playaction stat is categorized? At what point does a fake handoff from shotgun go from 'not playaction' to 'playaction'?
I am not sure what pff's definition is for PA. But I have seen on several occasions over the years, QB's faking a handoff to the opposite side as the RB is moving. I have also seen QB's reach the ball out but not even get close to putting it into the belly of the RB. Are they considered playaction? I mean who are they actually trying to fake on those instances?
I didn't think keeping track of playaction could be subjective but I guess it is.
At its base, the play action pass is a relatively simple play.
All offensive players will begin acting as if the play will be a run.
Offensive linemen will block straight ahead for a step or two. Wide receivers and tight ends will act as if they're blocking, too.
The quarterback will head toward the running back as if he were going to hand the ball off, and a running back will act as if he's going to take the handoff.
Then, it'll switch over to a passing play.
