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Originally posted by NCommand:
I mean, whenever we lose, it's almost always QB (TO's), OL and secondary. So that's just playing the common odds and our known weaknesses. Nobody is predicting a loss though.

Yeah, health has always been the key too esp. with those units.

I disagree that secondary or OL were ever primary reasons we didn't win previously* in the Kyle era. Secondary I'd probably assign more blame than OL.
[ Edited by SmokeyJoe on Jan 5, 2024 at 6:56 PM ]
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Didn't I just say the exact opposite? I already said it's an even playing field. I think this is our year. Tier 2 OL MVP Tier 1 QB.

Now if we lose, what are the odds OL and secondary will be leading culprits?

I'd honestly guess not high for either if they remain healthy.

I mean, whenever we lose, it's almost always QB (TO's), OL and secondary. So that's just playing the common odds and our known weaknesses. Nobody is predicting a loss though.

Yeah, health has always been the key too esp. with those units.

Nobody predicting a loss, but he's willing to post on how we lose,can't transcend and even bet against his team
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by Hoovtrain:
Still can't quantify what he's actually been right about. Because trying to do so would once again contradict himself

Well he's got monetary incentive now to actively root against this team. So there's that

Fools gold.

I can't lose. No brainer bet.


Originally posted by GoreGoreGore:
Originally posted by Hoovtrain:
Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by Monsterniner:
In the 2nd qtr the Vikings got a sack rushing only 3.

3 v 5

My favorite was when Brock got sandwiched by both DE's at the exact same time.
your favorite huh

Never seen a supposed do fan so giddy after every loss

He's in every thread gloating. Pathetic. I used to actually think he was a decent poster even though our disagreements on the OL.


Originally posted by NCommand:
Sorry Kyle, the answers for this unit are not in the building after 7 years of team building.

This unit has been the #2-3 reasons for your failures. If you can't control the LOS and establish the run, you are forced to play to all your weaknesses: unit pass protection, deeper middle field passing game, QB starts presses, D gets no rest, limited possessions, FG's instead of TD's, penalties, etc.

It all starts and snowballs from run blocking.

This is not a system or personnel that can win in multiple ways.

And before the Pivot Brothers show up, yes, the team has major issues and the same issues with the secondary, and perhaps QB too.

And now DC and DL too?

And no, no QB can transcend this.


Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by NCommand:
I never said it was impossible. I said it hadn't happened yet. Hence the bet. I'm sure that's super hard to grasp.

PFF 24th
TW 21st (Tier 4, Solid, Average)

It's happened a myriad of times actually.

What's not super hard to grasp is you putting your money on the 9ers failing. Keep those fingers crossed.

If the 9ers had a tier 1 OL, they'd be IN my bet.
[ Edited by 49AllTheTime on Jan 5, 2024 at 6:59 PM ]
Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Hurts just came off an MVP year and lost a Superbowl by 3 in the final minutes. The OL remained tier 1 so there was always a chance he had great odds to return to that level of play and continue the formula. Goff? I knew that wasn't going to fit the formula. LOL. But clearly that OL helped him reach his ceiling.

But yes, if I was betting straight QB's, that's a whole other bet and topic.

Jimmy was never tier 1. Having a tier 1 OL only would have given him a fighting chance esp. in the 4Q. The OL was MORE important for him because he was a classic drop back QB and not as talented.

Well that's what I was getting at. To me, it appears you strictly bet OL. The weight assigned to previous Niners shortcomings (as far as I can tell) was heavily, if not strictly, based on OL.

If you're going to be willing to compromise on the necessity of having a T1 QB and/or OL, you prob bet on the Chiefs (though you do seem to have a 'dislike' for Kermit).

I'm just being honest in trying to piece together what I think is a pretty obvious 'adjustment' in your arguments about what is necessary to win. This was one of the reasons I took the bet, beyond the obvious value advantage I would have bet on principle. I don't agree with any of the formulas (T1 OL, T1QB/OL, or T1QB/T2 OL).

Gotcha. Nah, I always had OL as a top 2 or 3 reason for a loss (even this year) no matter the QB; whether it's the inability to run block and/or protect the QB esp. when needed most. But nobody is winning a Superbowl with Trent on 1 leg, we see who Tomlinson is now, Garland, Person, Brunskill, Compton, etc. starting for you.

Had the Chiefs OL been in tier 1 at the time of the bet, I would have gladly taken them. Mahomes always has a shot to be a tier 1 QB and fit the formula (like last year). But I also know who he is when he doesn't have a tier 1 OL too.

I never said the the formula was full proof. I just stuck with it given the previous 7 years. Why mess with something that isn't broken? Is a tier 2 OL + tier 1 QB really that far off that original formula?
Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
Originally posted by NCommand:
I mean, whenever we lose, it's almost always QB (TO's), OL and secondary. So that's just playing the common odds and our known weaknesses. Nobody is predicting a loss though.

Yeah, health has always been the key too esp. with those units.

I disagree that secondary or OL were ever primary reasons we didn't win previously* in the Kyle era. Secondary I'd probably assign more blame than OL.

You'd be in the minority then. It's always TO's (QB), OL and secondary. Order it any way you want, those are always top 3.

I'd be curious what you thought were bigger factors in the L's this year.
Originally posted by NCommand:
You'd be in the minority then. It's always TO's (QB), OL and secondary. Order it any way you want, those are always top 3.

I'd be curious what you thought were bigger factors in the L's this year.

I was talking about previous years in the big games.

This year I'd pin the losses on lack of run game due to Trent injury (at least as a big factor) QB turnovers, and defensive issues not specifically related to quality of secondary. Pretty close though.
[ Edited by SmokeyJoe on Jan 5, 2024 at 7:12 PM ]
Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
Originally posted by NCommand:
You'd be in the minority then. It's always TO's (QB), OL and secondary. Order it any way you want, those are always top 3.

I'd be curious what you thought were bigger factors in the L's this year.

I was talking about previous years in the big games.

This year I'd pin the losses on lack of run game due to Trent injury (at least as a big factor) QB turnovers, and defensive issues not specifically related to quality of secondary. Pretty close though.

Gotcha.
Originally posted by NCommand:
Gotcha.

Perhaps you want to add Cowboys to your bet?
Originally posted by NCommand:
You'd be in the minority then. It's always TO's (QB), OL and secondary. Order it any way you want, those are always top 3.


???
Originally posted by Hoovtrain:
This new tier 1 OL+QB combo is a very recent thing and not part of the equation last 7 years. When I initially proposed the bet up until you took it, this was strictly a tier 1 OL thing on his end. Don't let him gaslight you lol

No no no. At time of bet who could've foreseen Jared Goff not achieving elite tier 1 status.
Originally posted by NCommand:
You'd be in the minority then. It's always TO's (QB), OL and secondary. Order it any way you want, those are always top 3.

I'd be curious what you thought were bigger factors in the L's this year.

Thought every player group was equally to blame thereby making every personnel group not SuperBowl winning level?
[ Edited by 9ers4eva on Jan 5, 2024 at 9:07 PM ]
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by Hoovtrain:
This new tier 1 OL+QB combo is a very recent thing and not part of the equation last 7 years. When I initially proposed the bet up until you took it, this was strictly a tier 1 OL thing on his end. Don't let him gaslight you lol

No no no. At time of bet who could've foreseen Jared Goff not achieving elite tier 1 status.
Lol, remember when NC said we're to focused on QB and not the OL, yet he needs better QB play to prove he's right
with AA having chronic issues now we should spend our 1st rounder on the dline.
Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Gotcha.

Perhaps you want to add Cowboys to your bet?

Nah, it's no big deal but TY. A bets a bet.
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by NCommand:
You'd be in the minority then. It's always TO's (QB), OL and secondary. Order it any way you want, those are always top 3.

I'd be curious what you thought were bigger factors in the L's this year.

Thought every player group was equally to blame thereby making every personnel group not SuperBowl winning level?

As I say with every loss, when this team loses, it's almost always a full team collapse. But there are usual suspects and you can assign your weight as you see fit. In a passing league, that's going to be a QB, his OL, secondary and consequently, a DL that isn't getting home.
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by Hoovtrain:
This new tier 1 OL+QB combo is a very recent thing and not part of the equation last 7 years. When I initially proposed the bet up until you took it, this was strictly a tier 1 OL thing on his end. Don't let him gaslight you lol

No no no. At time of bet who could've foreseen Jared Goff not achieving elite tier 1 status.

I did.
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