Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Hurts just came off an MVP year and lost a Superbowl by 3 in the final minutes. The OL remained tier 1 so there was always a chance he had great odds to return to that level of play and continue the formula. Goff? I knew that wasn't going to fit the formula. LOL. But clearly that OL helped him reach his ceiling.
But yes, if I was betting straight QB's, that's a whole other bet and topic.
Jimmy was never tier 1. Having a tier 1 OL only would have given him a fighting chance esp. in the 4Q. The OL was MORE important for him because he was a classic drop back QB and not as talented.
Well that's what I was getting at. To me, it appears you strictly bet OL. The weight assigned to previous Niners shortcomings (as far as I can tell) was heavily, if not strictly, based on OL.
If you're going to be willing to compromise on the necessity of having a T1 QB and/or OL, you prob bet on the Chiefs (though you do seem to have a 'dislike' for Kermit).
I'm just being honest in trying to piece together what I think is a pretty obvious 'adjustment' in your arguments about what is necessary to win. This was one of the reasons I took the bet, beyond the obvious value advantage I would have bet on principle. I don't agree with any of the formulas (T1 OL, T1QB/OL, or T1QB/T2 OL).
Gotcha. Nah, I always had OL as a top 2 or 3 reason for a loss (even this year) no matter the QB; whether it's the inability to run block and/or protect the QB esp. when needed most. But nobody is winning a Superbowl with Trent on 1 leg, we see who Tomlinson is now, Garland, Person, Brunskill, Compton, etc. starting for you.
Had the Chiefs OL been in tier 1 at the time of the bet, I would have gladly taken them. Mahomes always has a shot to be a tier 1 QB and fit the formula (like last year). But I also know who he is when he doesn't have a tier 1 OL too.
I never said the the formula was full proof. I just stuck with it given the previous 7 years. Why mess with something that isn't broken? Is a tier 2 OL + tier 1 QB really that far off that original formula?