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  • Giedi
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Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Elite DL + Elite playoff QB play= championship. Has worked year after year.

I dunno. Joe played about 15-ish years, and if that forumla really did work, he'd have more than 4 super bowl rings.
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
I would agree there are more factors to Qbs success than just their ability.

However I don't agree it's easy to project if OL can play. Half the OTs that have been drafted in the 1st the last 5 years or so have been busts or disappointments. It's not a layup position at all. Guard and Center haven't been a whole lot better.

Talent around the Qb also extends past just the OL too. How good is the defense at getting stops. What's does the skill guys look like. When every team is dumbed down to what their QB/OL combo is and everything else is ignored it's the mark of someone who doesn't understand the complexity of football whatsoever.

Good thoughts. QB is the hardest to forecast, imo. And if the rook QB contract is a thing to profit from, you have to build it up first. Look at Bryce Young in Carolina. That's a rook QB contract, and good luck benefitting from it as a team. They put the QB first ahead of team building. So that's my stance more or less, and what I mean by QB proofing. Carolina by my method would have never moved up to pick 1, for a QB. We never would have either, moved up for Lance. Just keep stacking talent up and down your roster, and there are ways to get a QB. Steve Young is kind of a text book historic example, bust in a bad situation, and we swoop in when the relative cost is lower, and put him in a winning situation. So there are different philosophies / opinions. More than 1 way to do it, I don't pretend this is the only way, but it's my preference based on watching SF and DET do their rebuilds.
Originally posted by Giedi:
I dunno. Joe played about 15-ish years, and if that forumla really did work, he'd have more than 4 super bowl rings.

Injuries got in the way.

That was mostly tongue in cheek anyway. I don't find dumbing things down to a simple formula is all that instructive on anything. Especially when it's not based on actual data but instead opinion.
[ Edited by 9ers4eva on Jan 10, 2024 at 12:56 PM ]
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Good thoughts. QB is the hardest to forecast, imo. And if the rook QB contract is a thing to profit from, you have to build it up first. Look at Bryce Young in Carolina. That's a rook QB contract, and good luck benefitting from it as a team. They put the QB first ahead of team building. So that's my stance more or less, and what I mean by QB proofing. Carolina by my method would have never moved up to pick 1, for a QB. We never would have either, moved up for Lance. Just keep stacking talent up and down your roster, and there are ways to get a QB. Steve Young is kind of a text book historic example, bust in a bad situation, and we swoop in when the relative cost is lower, and put him in a winning situation. So there are different philosophies / opinions. More than 1 way to do it, I don't pretend this is the only way, but it's my preference based on watching SF and DET do their rebuilds.

And Smokeys point is play the percentages. Have their been more Steve Youngs or Peyton Mannings?
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by Giedi:
I dunno. Joe played about 15-ish years, and if that forumla really did work, he'd have more than 4 super bowl rings.

Injuries got in the way.
and some bad calls and breaks.

You can have everything, but you still need a little luck here and there
  • Giedi
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Originally posted by Cisco0623:
True, but that also means their strategy has not been good enough. Now I'll argue the issue has been QB play far more than any o line issues, but I think we have that solved. The o line is certainly the unit that can and should be improved this offseason. I am simply saying the o line has not had the attention or success as they've had like the rest of the roster.

Specifically I think we can all agree the Kinlaw pick was a bust. It happens, it just sucks when many of us were perfectly fine with Wirfs who is pretty damn good.

If they go o line heavy in the draft nobody here will be arguing that. I think they will because Trent is not getting younger so its time to throw bodies at those positions. Actually, I am pretty sure somebody will argue it, but it wont be anyone posting in here regular right now lol
I certainly hope they go with your proposal of an OLine heavy draft. The other thing I have a bit of an issue is the kind of OLInemen that Kyle likes. Personally, for Brock, I'd like big behemoths out there that can anchor and sustain pass blocking against elite bull rushing DT's. In other words *bigger* Offensive Linemen. However, this is contradictory to Kyle's system. Kyle likes them small and athletic and he has good reason to. It *fits* his offensive zone run system. I don't know if you can find Big Offensive linemen with the quickness of tight ends - in the day 3 draft picks. I think you have to go no later than day 2, for those kinds of beasts.

I'd love for Kyle's OLine to have 5 Trent Williams, but that's unrealistic. But then again, I want Brock protected with a wall and a moat. I think Kyle may have to sacrifice *some* of his offensive explosiveness in order to protect Brock. i.e. he *may* have to modify his offensive system to somehow incorporate more big offensive linemen. Of course, that's easier said than done, and he probably will lose some of that wonderful explosiveness that is characteristic of his offenses if he does that.
Originally posted by Giedi:
I certainly hope they go with your proposal of an OLine heavy draft. The other thing I have a bit of an issue is the kind of OLInemen that Kyle likes. Personally, for Brock, I'd like big behemoths out there that can anchor and sustain pass blocking against elite bull rushing DT's. In other words *bigger* Offensive Linemen. However, this is contradictory to Kyle's system. Kyle likes them small and athletic and he has good reason to. It *fits* his offensive zone run system. I don't know if you can find Big Offensive linemen with the quickness of tight ends - in the day 3 draft picks. I think you have to go no later than day 2, for those kinds of beasts.

I'd love for Kyle's OLine to have 5 Trent Williams, but that's unrealistic. But then again, I want Brock protected with a wall and a moat. I think Kyle may have to sacrifice *some* of his offensive explosiveness in order to protect Brock. i.e. he *may* have to modify his offensive system to somehow incorporate more big offensive linemen. Of course, that's easier said than done, and he probably will lose some of that wonderful explosiveness that is characteristic of his offenses if he does that.

Our most recent higher draft pick investment suggests Kyle isn't stuck on drafting smaller athletic lineman ideally fit for the zone scheme.
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Good thoughts. QB is the hardest to forecast, imo. And if the rook QB contract is a thing to profit from, you have to build it up first. Look at Bryce Young in Carolina. That's a rook QB contract, and good luck benefitting from it as a team. They put the QB first ahead of team building. So that's my stance more or less, and what I mean by QB proofing. Carolina by my method would have never moved up to pick 1, for a QB. We never would have either, moved up for Lance. Just keep stacking talent up and down your roster, and there are ways to get a QB. Steve Young is kind of a text book historic example, bust in a bad situation, and we swoop in when the relative cost is lower, and put him in a winning situation. So there are different philosophies / opinions. More than 1 way to do it, I don't pretend this is the only way, but it's my preference based on watching SF and DET do their rebuilds.

And Smokeys point is play the percentages. Have their been more Steve Youngs or Peyton Mannings?

Kind of a nonsense post, there's only been 1 of each. Peyton is very rare, I can probably count on one hand how many slam dunk QBs I've seen, he was one. I felt Luck was another. And Elway was another. Most drafts don't have that. Most drafts have an Alex or Bryce Young. Everyone wants to play percentages, there are dif ways to do it. That's why some teams move up and others move down, they both are playing percentages, as they calculate them. I don't want a lot of stuff out of my control. You can probably build a good OL easier than draft some FQB. And if you put the one before the other, you keep whoever you acquire at QB probably more happy and successful.
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Kind of a nonsense post, there's only been 1 of each. Peyton is very rare, I can probably count on one hand how many slam dunk QBs I've seen, he was one. I felt Luck was another. And Elway was another. Most drafts don't have that. Most drafts have an Alex or Bryce Young. Everyone wants to play percentages, there are dif ways to do it. That's why some teams move up and others move down, they both are playing percentages, as they calculate them. I don't want a lot of stuff out of my control. You can probably build a good OL easier than draft some FQB. And if you put the one before the other, you keep whoever you acquire at QB probably more happy and successful.

Nearly all the good QBs in the league are high draft pick investments. That's the Peyton Manning reference. You can count the great QB's that came late in the draft over the last couple decades on one hand… and great QBs acquired through trade or FA are also extremely rare as they are not generally available because they are so rare (and important).
Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
Our most recent higher draft pick investment suggests Kyle isn't stuck on drafting smaller athletic lineman ideally fit for the zone scheme.

That's true. TW is his (and everybody's) ideal and Banks is a big strong boy. I'm curious if they go that route again at RG this year...not giving up on Burford of course. I'm very curious what they do at C and T in terms of bringing in legit challenging talent.
  • Giedi
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Originally posted by NCommand:
I never said that. I merely stated who TW/BT noted in tier 1 each year, in pre season, during the season, sometimes weekly, end of the year, going into the playoffs, etc. Like I did this year. If those teams also magically end up having tier 1 QB's and win Superbowls, perhaps you should take note esp. if it's been the case for 7 straight years.

You're not going to find a better combo so why fight it? You've already seen the other side of that formula. Sticking with that is the very definition of insanity.

Tier 2 is the highest our OL has ever been rated by SME's. Add an MVP FQB to that and you've got a great formula for winning (as long as they can lean on the running game).

I don't know if they can *ever get it past a Tier 2 level offensive line.* (1) I don't know if he wants to, considering his offensive scheme (2) from a cap/draft standpoint, it may be a case of diminishing returns.

His Scheme is the outside zone run and he needs small athletic OLinemen to power that kind of run game. He doesn't need behemoths, that can't run and screen his opposing defenders when the RB draws them in at the point of attack and cuts off it to the open space. The zone run puts defenses in a quandary because they just can't stunt or do exotic zone blitzes because defending the zone run, the defensive line has to stay disciplined and keep their spacing and position relative to the RB. RB's in Kyle's system are taught to break that DLine discipline by forcing the DLine to commit.

His current line, I think is a Hybrid. You have gap/power type players to the left, and zone run type players to the right. (Banks and Trent are big gap/power guys) whereas Brendel, Feliciano, and McKivits are more athletic, but a tad smaller than the right side guys. I don't think adding a behemoth in McKivitz' spot adds anything to Kyle's zone run, and might actually reduce it's effectiveness. (Example Trent Brown). Now if Kyle adds a first round behemoth OT that is also as athletic as a TE (which requires probably a day 1 or day 2 pick) then he can't devote said draft capital to his defensive line. Now maybe he can get a Brock Purdy type of OLineman in the 7th round or something like that, but that's like hitting a half court three pointer. That would be just blind luck at that point.

I think he'll probably go day 2 for Trent's backup and mostly Day 3 to shore up depth if he can't get Feliciano, Bartch, and Pryor for a reasonable price. He'll probably do what he did last year - and get some diamonds in the rough (Feliciano 2.0) in free agency and probably devote the rest to defense. Rinse and repeat. <sigh>
Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
Nearly all the good QBs in the league are high draft pick investments. That's the Peyton Manning reference. You can count the great QB's that came late in the draft over the last couple decades on one hand… and great QBs acquired through trade or FA are also extremely rare as they are not generally available because they are so rare (and important).

Right. I was talking about more #1 overall types that became elite vs a guy becoming great on his 2nd team after sputtering. It's basically Steve and Rich Gannon.
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Kind of a nonsense post, there's only been 1 of each. Peyton is very rare, I can probably count on one hand how many slam dunk QBs I've seen, he was one. I felt Luck was another. And Elway was another. Most drafts don't have that. Most drafts have an Alex or Bryce Young. Everyone wants to play percentages, there are dif ways to do it. That's why some teams move up and others move down, they both are playing percentages, as they calculate them. I don't want a lot of stuff out of my control. You can probably build a good OL easier than draft some FQB. And if you put the one before the other, you keep whoever you acquire at QB probably more happy and successful.

No one gave the Bengals the notice it's easier to build the OL.
  • Giedi
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  • Posts: 33,368
Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
Originally posted by Giedi:
I certainly hope they go with your proposal of an OLine heavy draft. The other thing I have a bit of an issue is the kind of OLInemen that Kyle likes. Personally, for Brock, I'd like big behemoths out there that can anchor and sustain pass blocking against elite bull rushing DT's. In other words *bigger* Offensive Linemen. However, this is contradictory to Kyle's system. Kyle likes them small and athletic and he has good reason to. It *fits* his offensive zone run system. I don't know if you can find Big Offensive linemen with the quickness of tight ends - in the day 3 draft picks. I think you have to go no later than day 2, for those kinds of beasts.

I'd love for Kyle's OLine to have 5 Trent Williams, but that's unrealistic. But then again, I want Brock protected with a wall and a moat. I think Kyle may have to sacrifice *some* of his offensive explosiveness in order to protect Brock. i.e. he *may* have to modify his offensive system to somehow incorporate more big offensive linemen. Of course, that's easier said than done, and he probably will lose some of that wonderful explosiveness that is characteristic of his offenses if he does that.

Our most recent higher draft pick investment suggests Kyle isn't stuck on drafting smaller athletic lineman ideally fit for the zone scheme.
Disagree, Burford is big, but still athletic. Zakelj is Kye's typical Outside Zone run blocker. Problem with Burford is his mental game still needs work. He's still not picking up his assignments. Granted, he's just in his first/2nd year at playing, and I do hope he continues to grow, but I think Burford is more a zone blocker than a gap/power type Lineman. I can see him being a Laken Tomlinson on the right side - but clearly not this year.
https://www.nfl.com/prospects/spencer-burford/32004255-5205-4996-13f9-5da6af74dbe3
[Burford] Long-armed guard/tackle prospect who is fueled by energy and athletic ability. Burford has the foot quickness and agility teams are looking for as a move blocker but his play can be rushed and unfocused, which can turn a win into a loss on any given rep. He needs to add muscle mass and drop the pad level, but has enough bend in his lower half to become a more consistent drive blocker with technique work. He can do a better job of uncorking a stiffer punch into rushers but he gets the most out of his length in pass protection and has the recovery athleticism to make up for missteps. Burford's physical traits and positional flexibility give him a head start in chasing a roster spot
https://www.nfl.com/prospects/nick-zakelj/32005a41-4b41-5291-1379-49d89d7d5d61
[Zakelj]Decorated four-year starting tackle with NFL-caliber size and traits. Zakelj plays with strain and aggression. However, his block sustain and finish are occasionally derailed by modest knee bend and core strength at the point of attack. Athletic feet and reactive athleticism allow him to stay connected to outside edge speed or inside counters in his pass sets. Despite his foot agility, he is just average in getting three-techniques reached on backside zone blocks, but there is a noticeable pop into initial contact when coming off the ball and getting downhill. Field toughness, an NFL frame and pass protection ability give Zakelj a shot as a swing tackle with the potential to develop into a bigger contributor.
Feliciano, I think, is a signal that Kyle is *possibly* experimenting with bigger linemen on the right side, and maybe exploring more gap power to the right side. Him, Pryor and Bartch are big - and do look like good Gap/power guys, with a nice mixture of athleticism. Still, losing all that athleticism, I think, will weaken Kyle's zone run. However, I think the development of Brock Purdy might offset that weakness - if Kyle goes to a more pass first kind of scheme. We shall see.
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Kind of a nonsense post, there's only been 1 of each. Peyton is very rare, I can probably count on one hand how many slam dunk QBs I've seen, he was one. I felt Luck was another. And Elway was another. Most drafts don't have that. Most drafts have an Alex or Bryce Young. Everyone wants to play percentages, there are dif ways to do it. That's why some teams move up and others move down, they both are playing percentages, as they calculate them. I don't want a lot of stuff out of my control. You can probably build a good OL easier than draft some FQB. And if you put the one before the other, you keep whoever you acquire at QB probably more happy and successful.

No one gave the Bengals the notice it's easier to build the OL.



what's interesting about the Bengals, take a look at Jake Browning's numbers
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