Originally posted by Giedi:
Originally posted by LasVegasWally:
Originally posted by Giedi:
Agree that Kyle likes his current OLine. One *big* factor that most don't mention is that Trent didn't retire and is still relatively healthy for his age. Compare that situation to (for example) Bryan Baluga who had multiple knee and ACL injuries throughout his career. As you, or another poster said, as long as Trent remains relatively healthy (i.e. doesn't miss more than two or three regular season games, and plays every playoff game relatively healthy) this OLine does look deep and solid.
As to your point about who will replace Trent - they have done massive trade ups before (Ex: Trey Lance draft deal) to get their guy. I can see them being desperate enough to do a blockbuster trade if they *know* there is a Trent Williams 2.0 in the 2025 draft that they *desperately* want. It's a long time between now and this time next year, and a lot of good and/or bad things can change on our Left Tackle situation.
Good post and I agree.
I find it frustrating that in the whole league with all the 32 practice squads, there isn't one OT,OG or Center that they can pluck off their rosters that would be better for the team than keeping a guy like Danny Gray or other non-performers.
It doesn't compute to me that they stay pat when there has to be better guys out there who can, at the very least, compete with what we have.
In the whole league - not one guy!
The NFL designed it that way, fortunately or unfortunately. The Cap, Draft, and Free agency serve to spread the talent very thin across the entire 32 teams of the NFL, such that every team in the NFL isn't too far behind the NFL leader (in this case KC and in 2nd position the 49ers) from a talent standpoint. The good thing is that 49ers can still keep good coaches like Foerster, but even that is difficult as is the case of losing Demeco, Salah, Clint Kubiak, and Bobby Slowik.
Good thing our Head Coach only has problems in the super bowl. The playoffs are a cakewalk for him. 
This is 100% true, the reason there's a draft, free agency, and salary cap, in which teams still need to spend a certain percentage of the cap in cash, the NFL is set to have as much parity as any league.
Look at the NBA for example, there's like 5-8 top teams in the league, that have pretty much all the MAJOR Star players, Super Teams, going 2-3 deep on Max contracts, but they did implement a new thing that will make it harder to have 2+ max contracts, unless the team wants to pay $100's of millions of dollars in tax penalties, like GS, PHX, LAC, etc....
There's literally no parity in MLB, there's no cap, there is a luxury tax that you can't go over, if you do, like with the NBA, you pay $100s of millions of dollars, you basically have the Yankees as one of the top 5 payrolls, then a team like the Athletics, or Orioles as bottom 5, even though Baltimore has a good team, as they drafted well, & developed those players, plus MLB has a minor league system, 6-7 teams per team(AAA, AA, High A, Low A, Rookie Ball, & 1-2 Dominican Summer League teams, Yankees have 2).
In the NHL there is a salary cap, but unlike the other 2 leagues with a cap(NFL & NBA), the players AAV/APY is their cap number each year, it's like with MLB for the most part, Aaron Judge's APY/AAV is $40M, which is what he gets paid each year thru 2031.
But back to the NFL, my point in why they have a draft, free agency, a cap is for parity, this is why we're seeing so many players signing elsewhere in the offseason, trades have become more common than they used to, they seem to be as common as NBA trades, except the whole taking on a large cap number for a 1st rd pick, teams will eat cap room to more picks for a player, like CAR did when we got CMC, while I remember CLE getting a 2nd rd pick for taking on Brock Osweiler's contract, but that type of deal doesn't happen much.
Plus look at all the revenue the NFL is pulling in, new TV deals with FOX, CBS for Sunday Afternoon Games, NBC for SNF, Peacock for FNF/Black Friday games, ESPN/ABC for MNF, Amazon Prime Video for TNF, & of course the huge NFL Sunday Ticket deal with YouTube TV/YouTube Premium Channels which is of course owned by Google, so every year the salary cap will go up, meaning players salaries will do so to, Goff now makes $53M a year, imagine what Brock may get next year? It'll end up being in the $50M+ a yr, but will be structured the way Bosa's is, low cap numbers in yrs 1-3, including the yr the extension was signed, so for Bosa that was 2023-2025, for Brock it'll be 2025-2027, then their cap hits go at or higher than their APY is.
Also each team is different when it comes to who or what position they will pay the most and least for, the 49ers value high paid QB, FB, WRs, TE, LT, EDGE, IDL, Off-Ball LB, & CB, they don't usually value a high end RB, but that changed when they acquired CMC, his actual APY is over $16M, but with us it's like $12M, they also don't value a high end C, LG, RG, & FS or SS, yes they've paid Jimmie Ward & Weston Richburg big money in the past, but they're more into low end deals, not something that will cripple the teams cap like a $20M a yr G, despite what fans want, and don't care if we go into cap hell for just 1 ring, it's not worth it, plus the majority of these big deals given out in FA, the teams end up regretting them, or the player gets cut or traded a yr or 2 into the deal.
When it comes to the OL, people need to realize that teams like to hoard them, as well as other positions, but with OL, there aren't a ton of quality, starting worthy OL on the market every year, and those tend to go for $16M-$20M a yr, something the 49ers will not pay a Guard, nor would I, that's ridiculous money for an IOL, so when you see them sign Brandon Parker & Chris Hubbard to cheap 1yr deals, who have starting experience, the 49ers got lucky they decided to take less to play here, well except for Eric Kendricks, who took less to go to Dallas, still pissed about that, that's why FA/New League Year needs to begin on the same day, no legal tampering period, so players don't back out of deals they agreed to.
As for the draft, obviously this is used to either fill holes, or draft for the future, even if you're the 49ers, a SB contender each year, as they took Pearsall, & Cowing who likely replace Jauan in 2025, & Deebo later on, I still see Deebo around as long as Kyle wants him to be, same with BA. They picks Puni, & Kingston because Banks won't be back if he's looking for $10M+ a yr, even average to below average IOL can get that kind of money now with the way the cap is going up by $20M a season, they drafted Mustapha IMO because they know Hufanga will be gone, they won't pay him top safety money, reason why they didn't sign one this offseason, like Justin Simmons, cause he's likely asking for way too much money, then at LB, they've drafted Graham, Winters, & Bethune in the past 2 drafts, so Dre may be gone, he's the one I think might stay, especially on a cheaper deal, and finally CB wise, Ward & Lenoir are UFAs after 2024, it'd be wise to extend Mooney now, cause they can save $9.148M in cap room, plus he's set to count $12.298M in 2025 as dead money, so they extend him now/before the season they have him locked into a new multi-year deal, & added cap room, Lenoir I'm 50/50 on what happens, if we can get him extended now, I'd do it, cause his price tag likely goes up next year, so that's why they drafted Green this year, and guys like Luter, & Womack in the last 2 drafts(2022 & 2023).
As for anyone interested in knowing where we'll likely be at when the season begins cap wise, I did a X/Twitter thread last night, idk how it'll look with the link, but I'll also explain here.
Basically the 49ers will be around $15M-$17M under the cap when the season begins, before a Aiyuk or Ward extension, they will get back that $18M on June 2nd, but I'm accounting for 71 total players(53-man roster, 16-man PS, & 1 PUP/Dre), so spots 52 & 53 will cost $795K each at minimum, so $1.59M total, then the PS can cost as much as $4,550,400 since the 49ers usually give the veterans they sign to the PS the max PS salary allowed, $21,300 a week this yr, while the 10 non vets with 2 or less accrued years get $16,800 a week.
I also went off of my 1st projection from after the draft, which gave me around $15.9M in cap room, so I'm estimating between $15M-$17M to begin, but remember we can extend Mooney to save $9.148M, and if they extend BA with a $25M signing bonus, they save $7.999M, which means they could have between $32.147M-$34.147M to begin 2024, with $5M set aside for in season roster moves, they'd likely carryover $27M-$29M of it.
As for 2025, I have them with 49 players signed, and $22.5M over a projected $280M cap, but they'll likely only have 30-34 players signed for 2025 when the season begins, & with myu roster I did I had them just $7.3M over, before BA's extension, this includes Mooney, cause he already counts $12.298M, and they can get his 2025 cap number at or a bit below that.
Now, when it comes to Aiyuk, what I would do is a $25M signing bonus, prorates at $5M a yr over 5yr, his 2024 cap hit is just $6.125M, saving the $7.999M I mentioned before, then for 2025, I think they can get his cap number in the $10M-$12M by doing a $10M option bonus in 2025, which they do with every big deal, each player gets a signing bonus & an option bonus the next year which is GTD already, but prorates, Bosa got a 3 tier bonus structure, $50M SB in 2023, $15.23M option bonus in 2024, & $29.015M option bonus in 2025, & Bosa has minimum salaries for each of the first 3yrs, including the yr he signed the extension, so 2023-2025, then it goes up in 2026 to over his APY at I think $40M or $42M, so they can do similar with BA, 3 tier bonus structure, minimum base salaries, all GTD like Bosa's, have his cap hits under his APY, which will be between $28M-$30M IMO.
So for 2025, the 49ers would be just $8.68M under a $280M cap, but with just 36 players signed, so with 51 they'd be around $3.92M over, this is assuming the deals for BA & Ward are what I'd do, & that we carryover between $27M-$29M, then they have options to create cap room in 2025.
The options to create cap room include CMC($8.596m w/extension), Deebo($12,344,423 w/extension), Kittle($10.516m w/extension), Trent($16.996m w/restructure), Hargrave($14.916m w/restructure), & Warner($13.116m w/restructure).
Before a Brock deal, the 49ers would have $94M in cap room in 2026 with 32 players signed, including 8 UDFAs they signed, but with 51 signed they'd have $77M in cap room, but it would likely take away around $35M in cap room for Brock, Mooney, & BA, but the $35M is just a guess, as I haven't done a mock deal for Brock, I'm assuming he gets the 3 tiered bonus structure, minimum base salaries all GTD at signing, with a huge signing bonus, & 2 option bonuses to help with the cap hits being lower than anyone expects, his cap hits wouldn't hit near his APY till 2028 if they do it like they did with Bosa.
So as I said in the thread, the next 3 yrs are just fine cap wise, they'll carryover a good amount of cap room into 2025, depending on how much they save from BAs expected extension, & a potential Mooney extension, while they'd be able to save more in 2025 by extending the likes of CMC, Deebo, & Kittle, I say these 3, because I don't see the 49ers getting rid of any of these 3, especially if they're 1. producing, 2. healthy, and 3. still among the best in the league, if so, they get extended, cause they count $13.625M for Kittle in 2026 in dead money, $8.493M for Deebo in 2026, & $4.288M for CMC in 2026, so they could get those 3 players' cap hits somewhere around the total of those 3, which is $26.406M, or a little more, in the $30M range for those 3 is a more likely outcome if they're all extended.
But, I'm not worried about the 49ers cap going forward post BA & Brock extensions, cause I've explained it all already, shown how we can keep our core together for a while, plus Trent likely will retire in 2026, which saves cap room, plus they can save money by moving on from Brendel if they find a C or someone steps up as the new C from the young guys we've picked.
