Colin Kaepernick Thread

Originally posted by qnnhan7:

Originally posted by sdaddy101269:

I thought this tidbit from the article on the homepage was interesting as well:

"Also consider this: Kaepernick's 2015 season was really, really bad and the worst season of his career without question, so mathematically, he must have played some really good football in those other seasons to still maintain the 10th highest active passer rating in the league, even with that terrible year figured into the calculation"

Ok, but still can't beat out Gabbert for the starting job. Puzzled

Has Gabbert been named the starter?

Originally posted by dj43:
MODS: Thanks for this thread.

Here is my chart of each throw Kaepernick made.
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SUMMARY: What I wanted to see more than anything else was how he would go through his progressions. In that regard I was totally disappointed. In all but two cases, he stayed on his first read, never looking anywhere else. (judging by helmet movement) SD was making it easy for him in that they stayed rather vanilla, essentially giving him that first read. Also, a lot of Kelly's offense tries to set up an easy first read. Still, I think everyone agrees we need to see him finally master consistently going to 2nd, 3rd and 4th options. After all, the normal set is 3 wideouts.

In three cases, he was lucky he wasn't picked. I was less impressed after this second, more focused look than I was watching the game the first time. The stats look better than the performance. Clearly better than Driskel but not a clear cut advantage over Ponder.

There seems to be too much focus on whether he threw to his first read, and when he does, it's considered "easy". When a QB completes a pass to his first read, it should be categorized as a good play, not a bad play. Unless the targeted WR was not open. When the targeted WR was not open, that's when we can say he locked in and didn't move through his reads.

On many 3/5 step timing throws, the work is done presnap, then a quick coverage read on a key defender to confirm that the presnap read was correct. When done correctly, it looks easy and that's a good thing.

Originally posted by sdaddy101269:

Based on what I've seen so far, if Kaep had been healthy the camp there would be no question he'd be the starter. Gabbert, if he does start, will be on the shortest QB leash in history IMO.

If that is what you saw may I recommend a good ophthalmologist?

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by dj43:

MODS: Thanks for this thread.

Here is my chart of each throw Kaepernick made.
.
.
SUMMARY: What I wanted to see more than anything else was how he would go through his progressions. In that regard I was totally disappointed. In all but two cases, he stayed on his first read, never looking anywhere else. (judging by helmet movement) SD was making it easy for him in that they stayed rather vanilla, essentially giving him that first read. Also, a lot of Kelly's offense tries to set up an easy first read. Still, I think everyone agrees we need to see him finally master consistently going to 2nd, 3rd and 4th options. After all, the normal set is 3 wideouts.

In three cases, he was lucky he wasn't picked. I was less impressed after this second, more focused look than I was watching the game the first time. The stats look better than the performance. Clearly better than Driskel but not a clear cut advantage over Ponder.

There seems to be too much focus on whether he threw to his first read, and when he does, it's considered "easy". When a QB completes a pass to his first read, it should be categorized as a good play, not a bad play. Unless the targeted WR was not open. When the targeted WR was not open, that's when we can say he locked in and didn't move through his reads.

On many 3/5 step timing throws, the work is done presnap, then a quick coverage read on a key defender to confirm that the presnap read was correct. When done correctly, it looks easy and that's a good thing.

Thank God for the sanity and analysis of THL.

Originally posted by dj43:
MODS: Thanks for this thread.

Here is my chart of each throw Kaepernick made against the Charger.

1. 1st & 10 - easy throw to the left side to Miller for 8 yds. On target. On time.

2. 2nd & 7 - 10 yard completion to Burbridge who made a nice comeback move to shield the ball from the defender. First read.

3. 1st & 10 - 8 yd completion to Kerley who read the zone well and made it an easy throw for CK. First read.

4. 2nd & 2 - 7 yds to Miller, good throw. First read.

5. 2nd & 3 - inc. to Miller. Bad decision to throw into double coverage. Miller couldn't hold the fastball and got popped by DB. (Tim Ryan 49er TV commentator: "Kaepernick led Miller into trouble on that one.") First read. Dres Anderson had come open over the middle from the right for an easy 6-8 yard gain but CK never looked. McCoil could have picked if he had gone for the ball. Lucky for CK.

6. 3rd & 3 - 10 yard catch and run completion to Kerley. Easy first read and throw.

7. 1st & 10 - overthrew wide open Bell on the goal line. Should have been an easy TD had the throw been down. Not a hard throw to make. Play was right in front of CK. First read.

8. 1st & 10 - great catch by Dres Anderson on a ball Kaepernick forced into double coverage that McCoil should have picked. Anderson was creamed after the catch but held on. Kaepernick stared him down all the way. 49ers were lucky not to have received another WR injury. Bad decision by CK.

Drive resulted in running TD.

9. 1st & 20 - 11 yard swing pass to Mike Davis. Ball came out a bit late. Had it been quicker, Cajuste would have had angle to block CB thereby allowing Davis to turn the corner and get another 5+ yards. Davis was the first read but ball still came out late. Result was OK but would have been better with quicker throw.

10. 2nd & 8 - inc to Bell on a crossing route. Bell was open for the first but ball was late and behind him. Not a good throw on an easy opportunity.

11. 2nd and 8 - Cajuste unable to get both feet down on sideline throw. Kaepernick rolled right away from pressure, saw Cajuste all the way but again, throw was late. Had he released it earlier, Cajuste had separation and space to receive the ball and stay in bounds. CK waited to throw until he saw Cajuste open and THEN threw it. Perhaps we can say it was he result of lack of time together but the result is still the same.

Drive stalled at that point.

12. 1st & 10 - 3 yard completion in left flat to Miller on pass Miller had to slow and twist back to make nice catch. Had the ball been out in front so Miller did not have to slow, the play could have gone for another 5-8 yards.

13. 3rd and 2 - easy 7 yard completion to Anderson over the middle. First read.

14. 1st & 10 - 8 yard completion to Whalen. Nice route. Easy first read completion.

Penalty on a check down to Hamm.

15. 1st & 15 - 8 yard completion to Hamm on easy first read over the middle. Anderson was 1-on-1 on the left side with no safety cover but CK never looked. Took the easy short completion.

16. 1st & 10 - incomplete on late, low throw to Cajuste. 12 yard throw that should have been easy completion. Ball bounced before it reached Cajuste.

17. 1st & 10 - incomplete jump ball to Whalen in right corner. Whalen made nice catch but could not get both feet down.

18. 2nd & 10 - Horrible throw to the goal line that McCoil should have taken to the house.

SUMMARY: What I wanted to see more than anything else was how he would go through his progressions. In that regard I was totally disappointed. In all but two cases, he stayed on his first read, never looking anywhere else. (judging by helmet movement) SD was making it easy for him in that they stayed rather vanilla, essentially giving him that first read. Also, a lot of Kelly's offense tries to set up an easy first read. Still, I think everyone agrees we need to see him finally master consistently going to 2nd, 3rd and 4th options. After all, the normal set is 3 wideouts.

In three cases, he was lucky he wasn't picked. I was less impressed after this second, more focused look than I was watching the game the first time. The stats look better than the performance. Clearly better than Driskel but not a clear cut advantage over Ponder.

What's more disconcerting is he seemed to play worse the more he plays. The first drive and maybe some in the 2nd drive, he was pretty good. Then slowly goes slightly off.

Kap had a great half year in 2012. Hos passing was average to above average in 2012. His run threat is what made him an overnight phenomenon.

Having an OK first series vs the Chargers back-up rookies that will be cut this week does not erase his average to poor play passing from the pocket since 2013. After the first game in 2013 Kaepernick fell apart in the pocket and HaRoman had to turn him into a game manager. Had to micro-manage him in the pocket by limiting his attempts. With defined reads, a simplified passing game relying on bootlegs, play action, roll outs etc.

HaRoman had to reel in "Kap the passer" and turn him into a game manager while relying on our run game and defense. From 2013, when the issues in his passing game became obvious:


http://www.battleredblog.com/2013/10/4/4803524/the-film-room-colin-kaepernick-game-manager


2014, esp the second half of the season more of the same. Kap the passer has failed. Even Kap the runner has been contathrea His run threat can no longer produce TD's. In fact, his run threat is one reason his passing game has been stunted.

He's still doing it. Locking on to one WR. Looking for running lanes when he should be passing. His run threat also causes more sacks on top of the fact he leaves open players on the field.

He is not worth his contract. There's so much more about his lacking passing game to criticize but a major fator in wanting him to move on is aslo the injury clause for 2017. If he is hurt, which is a real possibility, the 49ees will be stuck paying a poor passer starting QB money.


He has regressed each year since 2012. There is a reason we gave him a contract with so many descalators and an out if he plays poorly. The injury clause bit us in the rear. There is a reason no NFL team would pay Kap starting QB money on the trade block. The market rejected the notion that Kaepernick is an above average or even average passing QB. They did so based on objective analysis of his long term poor play from the pocket.

This is not 2012. Kap playing OK in the first series vs the Chargers second/third string defense means nothing. In fact, against a halfway good defense he would have thrown two ints. When he played a starting defense last week he failed. Ponder played better vs the Chargers second/third string defense. Ponder.

The reason Gabbert didnt play is because he will start week one vs the Rams. Anyone thinking otherwise is fooling themselves.

Kaepernicks play from the pocket the last 3 years can be dissected in great detail. He is not a good passer. He has been a great runner with flashes of average to above average passing in a game or two here and there, just as most below average passers achieve from time to time.

He is not worth the contract. Not worth the money or risk of pay in 2017. The Chargers second/third string defense changes nothing.

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by dj43:
MODS: Thanks for this thread.

Here is my chart of each throw Kaepernick made.
.
.
SUMMARY: What I wanted to see more than anything else was how he would go through his progressions. In that regard I was totally disappointed. In all but two cases, he stayed on his first read, never looking anywhere else. (judging by helmet movement) SD was making it easy for him in that they stayed rather vanilla, essentially giving him that first read. Also, a lot of Kelly's offense tries to set up an easy first read. Still, I think everyone agrees we need to see him finally master consistently going to 2nd, 3rd and 4th options. After all, the normal set is 3 wideouts.

In three cases, he was lucky he wasn't picked. I was less impressed after this second, more focused look than I was watching the game the first time. The stats look better than the performance. Clearly better than Driskel but not a clear cut advantage over Ponder.

There seems to be too much focus on whether he threw to his first read, and when he does, it's considered "easy". When a QB completes a pass to his first read, it should be categorized as a good play, not a bad play. Unless the targeted WR was not open. When the targeted WR was not open, that's when we can say he locked in and didn't move through his reads.

On many 3/5 step timing throws, the work is done presnap, then a quick coverage read on a key defender to confirm that the presnap read was correct. When done correctly, it looks easy and that's a good thing.

i agree but going through reads has been a problem and im under impression kap played well yesterday (if i were to grade i would give him a C+)

but he hasnt shown the ability to consistantly perform well in pre snap reads (which imo is his biggest weakness) or go through progressions

this will be a problem in the future if he is going to be a consistant starter

Originally posted by sdaddy101269:

Originally posted by qnnhan7:

Originally posted by sdaddy101269:
I thought this tidbit from the article on the homepage was interesting as well:

"Also consider this: Kaepernick's 2015 season was really, really bad and the worst season of his career without question, so mathematically, he must have played some really good football in those other seasons to still maintain the 10th highest active passer rating in the league, even with that terrible year figured into the calculation"

Ok, but still can't beat out Gabbert for the starting job. Puzzled

Has Gabbert been named the starter?

Three things that concern me the most.

1. The receiver almost always got the ball a hair of a second late.
2. He didn't always throw to the most open receiver.
3. He doesn't seem as fast as he used to be.

Positives:

1. Footwork on his drop was much better where he hit that top step and planted it rather than shuffling it another half step back.
2. Arm strength is still there.

bottom line is he the future franchise QB? If not cut him and move on.

Originally posted by Joecool:
Three things that concern me the most.

1. The receiver almost always got the ball a hair of a second late.
2. He didn't always throw to the most open receiver.
3. He doesn't seem as fast as he used to be.

Positives:

1. Footwork on his drop was much better where he hit that top step and planted it rather than shuffling it another half step back.
2. Arm strength is still there.

he was a little late, but that takes game reps.

it would have been great if played the first two games. to see what he would really look like with 4 games under his belt

Here's my guess/hunch/speculation - Kap will not be cut. Gabbert will be the starter in the season opener; Kap will be the backup. I think there is a reason Kelly spent a lot of time talking to Kap during pre-season practices during the times that Kap was doing "mirroring" reps due to recovery from surgery and I think he is still intrigued with Kap. Gabbert has almost surely won the competition to start the first game of the season, but I think the competition will continue from week to week. I think Gabbert is going to do everything he can to keep being the starter and I think Kap is going to push him pretty hard. I don't think Kelly would throw Gabbert under the bus just because of one fairly poor showing, but if Kap keeps improving in practice, he might not give Gabbert all that much slack.

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by Joecool:
Three things that concern me the most.

1. The receiver almost always got the ball a hair of a second late.
2. He didn't always throw to the most open receiver.
3. He doesn't seem as fast as he used to be.

Positives:

1. Footwork on his drop was much better where he hit that top step and planted it rather than shuffling it another half step back.
2. Arm strength is still there.

he was a little late, but that takes game reps.

it would have been great if played the first two games. to see what he would really look like with 4 games under his belt

i dont think thorwing the ball late is because of lack of game reps comes with seeing the play late - thats a film room issue

if it were ball placement accuracy footwork mechanics i would say then due to lack of game reps

Originally posted by harryj:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by Joecool:
Three things that concern me the most.

1. The receiver almost always got the ball a hair of a second late.
2. He didn't always throw to the most open receiver.
3. He doesn't seem as fast as he used to be.

Positives:

1. Footwork on his drop was much better where he hit that top step and planted it rather than shuffling it another half step back.
2. Arm strength is still there.

he was a little late, but that takes game reps.

it would have been great if played the first two games. to see what he would really look like with 4 games under his belt

i dont think thorwing the ball late is because of lack of game reps comes with seeing the play late - thats a film room issue

if it were ball placement accuracy footwork mechanics i would say then due to lack of game reps

oops late was the wrong word to say. Ball placement. he hit everyone, but the ball placement could have been better

On that completion to Dres Anderson that was nearly an interception, it does look like maybe Kap at least tried to keep his eyes in the middle of the field first instead staring down in the direction of the two receivers the whole way through, if only for a moment. Can't see what that safety does until the ball is already by Anderson, so it's hard to say what happened.