Colin Kaepernick Thread

Originally posted by NCommand:
Thanks thl. It's a bit late and I'm on my cell so I'll f/u tomorrow on this. Don't want to misguide anyone esp. off my memory (even if it's a bit of a moot point).

You're a respected poster that spits a lot of truth. So when you put out a stat like that, many will take it as truth. I know ragging on the HaRo offense is the trendy thing right now, but we don't have to make them seem worse than they were.

Originally posted by Mertonschickendance:
Since Kap worked out w/ many WR prospects at EXOS that are entering the draft, does anybody have any word if he said anything about any of them (publicly or rumored)? Hard to imagine he didn't inform Baalke or any scouts about them.

DGB

Originally posted by defenderDX:

Originally posted by Mertonschickendance:
Since Kap worked out w/ many WR prospects at EXOS that are entering the draft, does anybody have any word if he said anything about any of them (publicly or rumored)? Hard to imagine he didn't inform Baalke or any scouts about them.

DGB

I'm still struggling to hop onto the DGB wagon, I'm not too sure how I feel about him yet

Originally posted by Quest4six:
I'm still struggling to hop onto the DGB wagon, I'm not too sure how I feel about him yet

Same here...too many quality guys to take a huge risk. Trust the team to do the right thing.

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by Pillbusta:

Originally posted by NCommand:
I wish we were stuck in 2nd in 10! We AVERAGED 2nd and 12 two-thirds of the time. Averaged. Averaged I said. Lol

This is a very damning statement. WTF OC runs an NFL offense like this? This is amateur hour ish right here!

That is an incorrect stat and we discused this in the NYG film thread. It's half cherry picked.

It shouldn't be. I kept weekly tabs on it through the year and posted here for everyone. I may have missed the NYG film thread and the counter?

Let's just take the first game of the season and see what the 49ers faced on 2nd downs. This is omitting plays on 1st down where the 49ers netted more than 10 yards. Meaning they moved the chains on 1st down. My source is ESPN Play by play page. I'll bold the ones that help to favor your stat.
@DAL
2nd & 3
2nd & 8
2nd & 7
2nd & 11
2nd & 10
2nd & 9
2nd & 4
2nd & 10
2nd & 4
2nd & 6
2nd & 10
2nd & 3
2nd & 10
2nd & 12
2nd & 4
2nd & 6
2nd & 6
2nd & 11 (due to QB kneeldown, but let's count it)

That's an average of 2nd and 7.4. I know that's not the stat you claim though. Still, I might be cherry picking games, so let's take the crappiest offensive game of the season. In the vs SEA game, the 49ers netted 164 yards. Surely this game should swing the stat towards your claim that "We AVERAGED 2nd and 12 two-thirds of the time. Averaged."

vs SEA
2nd & 3
2nd & 10
2nd & 10
2nd & 7
2nd & 8
2nd & 20
2nd & 11
2nd & 12
2nd & 2
2nd & 5
2nd & 5
2nd & 7
2nd & 16
2nd & 10
2nd & 10
2nd & 7
2nd & 10
2nd & 4
2nd & 15

That's an average of 2nd & 9.05.
I know you stated that they averaged 2nd & 12, two-thirds of the time, not that they averaged 2nd & 12. Are you saying they are in 2nd & 12 for 66% of their 2nd downs? That's insanely bad, and not true. Either I don't understand your math, or I don't understand your stat. If that's the stat you stand by, then you gotta dig deep to find some games that swing this towards your favor.

This looks familiar.

http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/niners/180458-seattle-seahawks-coaches-game-analysis-week/page2/

Check out post 21.

Originally posted by thl408:
You're a respected poster that spits a lot of truth. So when you put out a stat like that, many will take it as truth. I know ragging on the HaRo offense is the trendy thing right now, but we don't have to make them seem worse than they were.

I just remember them being in 2nd and long A LOT, 2nd and 7, 2nd and 8 was pretty normal from what I can recall. They ranked either second or third worst in the NFL in first down production, right around heavyweights like Jacksonville.

Originally posted by thl408:

Let's just take the first game of the season and see what the 49ers faced on 2nd downs. This is omitting plays on 1st down where the 49ers netted more than 10 yards. Meaning they moved the chains on 1st down. My source is ESPN Play by play page. I'll bold the ones that help to favor your stat.
@DAL
2nd & 3
2nd & 8
2nd & 7
2nd & 11
2nd & 10
2nd & 9
2nd & 4
2nd & 10
2nd & 4
2nd & 6
2nd & 10
2nd & 3
2nd & 10
2nd & 12
2nd & 4
2nd & 6
2nd & 6
2nd & 11 (due to QB kneeldown, but let's count it)

That's an average of 2nd and 7.4. I know that's not the stat you claim though. Still, I might be cherry picking games, so let's take the crappiest offensive game of the season. In the vs SEA game, the 49ers netted 164 yards. Surely this game should swing the stat towards your claim that "We AVERAGED 2nd and 12 two-thirds of the time. Averaged."

vs SEA
2nd & 3
2nd & 10
2nd & 10
2nd & 7
2nd & 8
2nd & 20
2nd & 11
2nd & 12
2nd & 2
2nd & 5
2nd & 5
2nd & 7
2nd & 16
2nd & 10
2nd & 10
2nd & 7
2nd & 10
2nd & 4
2nd & 15

That's an average of 2nd & 9.05.
I know you stated that they averaged 2nd & 12, two-thirds of the time, not that they averaged 2nd & 12. Are you saying they are in 2nd & 12 for 66% of their 2nd downs? That's insanely bad, and not true. Either I don't understand your math, or I don't understand your stat. If that's the stat you stand by, then you gotta dig deep to find some games that swing this towards your favor.

I read it as the bottom 2/3 of 2nd downs averaged out at 12 yards to go. For the Seattle game, the worst 12 second downs averaged 11 yards to the line of gain. Not 12, but not far off. If he fudged a bit and took the worst 11, it's ~11.3.

For Dallas, it's ~9.2. That was actually a pretty good game for us, iirc.

Originally posted by VinculumJuris:

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by Pillbusta:

Originally posted by NCommand:
I wish we were stuck in 2nd in 10! We AVERAGED 2nd and 12 two-thirds of the time. Averaged. Averaged I said. Lol

This is a very damning statement. WTF OC runs an NFL offense like this? This is amateur hour ish right here!

That is an incorrect stat and we discused this in the NYG film thread. It's half cherry picked.

It shouldn't be. I kept weekly tabs on it through the year and posted here for everyone. I may have missed the NYG film thread and the counter?

Let's just take the first game of the season and see what the 49ers faced on 2nd downs. This is omitting plays on 1st down where the 49ers netted more than 10 yards. Meaning they moved the chains on 1st down. My source is ESPN Play by play page. I'll bold the ones that help to favor your stat.
@DAL
2nd & 3
2nd & 8
2nd & 7
2nd & 11
2nd & 10
2nd & 9
2nd & 4
2nd & 10
2nd & 4
2nd & 6
2nd & 10
2nd & 3
2nd & 10
2nd & 12
2nd & 4
2nd & 6
2nd & 6
2nd & 11 (due to QB kneeldown, but let's count it)

That's an average of 2nd and 7.4. I know that's not the stat you claim though. Still, I might be cherry picking games, so let's take the crappiest offensive game of the season. In the vs SEA game, the 49ers netted 164 yards. Surely this game should swing the stat towards your claim that "We AVERAGED 2nd and 12 two-thirds of the time. Averaged."

vs SEA
2nd & 3
2nd & 10
2nd & 10
2nd & 7
2nd & 8
2nd & 20
2nd & 11
2nd & 12
2nd & 2
2nd & 5
2nd & 5
2nd & 7
2nd & 16
2nd & 10
2nd & 10
2nd & 7
2nd & 10
2nd & 4
2nd & 15

That's an average of 2nd & 9.05.
I know you stated that they averaged 2nd & 12, two-thirds of the time, not that they averaged 2nd & 12. Are you saying they are in 2nd & 12 for 66% of their 2nd downs? That's insanely bad, and not true. Either I don't understand your math, or I don't understand your stat. If that's the stat you stand by, then you gotta dig deep to find some games that swing this towards your favor.

This looks familiar.

http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/niners/180458-seattle-seahawks-coaches-game-analysis-week/page2/

Check out post 21.

Correct. Post #23 explains it a bit further. Thanks Vin!

This was from my old notes:

So, someone wondered how we were doing on 1st down production for the year. Here you go (if you want to skip the details, see "Overall" at the end):

Dallas Game:
2nd and 8
2nd and 7
2nd and 11
2nd and 10
2nd and 9
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 12

Of the 16 2nd downs we had this game here is the breakdown:
9 of the 16 times we had >7 to go averaging 9.7 yards left to go

Bears Game:
2nd and 8
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 8
2nd and 10

2nd and 10
2nd and 7
2nd and 15
2nd and 16
2nd and 7
2nd and 8
2nd and 12

Of the 20 2nd downs we had this game here is the breakdown:
14 of the 20 times we had >7 to go averaging 10.1 yards left to go

Cardinals Game:
2nd and 9
2nd and 10
2nd and 9
2nd and 13
2nd and 9
2nd and 7
2nd and 10

Of the 22 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
7 of the 22 times we had >7 to go averaging 9.6 yards left to go

Eagles Game:
2nd and 7
2nd and 10
2nd and 8
2nd and 14
2nd and 8
2nd and 18
2nd and 17
2nd and 8
2nd and 8
2nd and 7
2nd and 15
2nd and 11
2nd and 12
2nd and 9
2nd and 7
2nd and 9
2nd and 13
2nd and 7

Of the 26 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
18 of the 26 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 10.4 yards to go

Rams Game:
2nd and 10
2nd and 9
2nd and 8
2nd and 10
2nd and 9
2nd and 17
2nd and 8
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 8
2nd and 7
2nd and 7
2nd and 10
2nd and 11

Of the 22 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
14 of the 22 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 9.6 yards to go

Broncos Game:
2nd and 10
2nd and 9
2nd and 8
2nd and 10
2nd and 11
2nd and 18
2nd and 7
2nd and 8
2nd and 19
2nd and 24
2nd and 11
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 14
2nd and 9
2nd and 8
2nd and 11
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 10

Of the 26 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
20 of the 26 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 11.4 yards to go

Rams Game:
2nd and 9
2nd and 10
2nd and 17
2nd and 10
2nd and 7
2nd and 9
2nd and 10
2nd and 11
2nd and 7
2nd and 7
2nd and 19
2nd and 11
2nd and 10

Of the 20 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
13 of the 20 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 11.2 yards to go

Saints Game:
2nd and 10
2nd and 12
2nd and 8
2nd and 10
2nd and 17
2nd and 10
2nd and 12
2nd and 10
2nd and 8
2nd and 9
2nd and 19
2nd and 7
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 8
2nd and 10

Of the 25 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
17 of the 25 times we had >7 to go averaging 10.6 yards left to go

Giant's Game:
2nd and 10
2nd and 8
2nd and 7
2nd and 18
2nd and 7
2nd and 17
2nd and 9
2nd and 10
2nd and 8
2nd and 11
2nd and 7
2nd and 8
2nd and 11
2nd and 10
2nd and 9

Of the 22 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
15 of the 22 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 10 yards to go

Redskin's Game:
2nd and 10
2nd and 7
2nd and 10
2nd and 9
2nd and 9
2nd and 13
2nd and 10
2nd and 7
2nd and 15
2nd and 7
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 11
2nd and 16
2nd and 8

Of the 21 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
15 of the 21 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 10.13 yards to go

Hawk's Game:
2nd and 3
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 7
2nd and 8
2nd and 20
2nd and 11
2nd and 12
2nd and 5
2nd and 7
2nd and 16
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 7
2nd and 10
2nd and 4
2nd and 15

Of the 17 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
14 of the 17 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 12.6 yards to go

Raider's Game:
2nd and 17
2nd and 11
2nd and 5
2nd and 6
2nd and 8
2nd and 6
2nd and 7
2nd and 7
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 1
2nd and 3
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 5
2nd and 5
2nd and 8
2nd and 15

Of the 19 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
12 of the 19 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 10.3 yards to go

Overall:
On 2nd downs, 66% of the time (170 of 256) we had >7 yards to go averaging 11+ yards to go. In short, 2/3rds of the time we're going BACKWARDS on 1st downs and putting ourselves in 2nd and longs, which as you know, often times snowballs from there.

I believe we ended the year still as 31st or 32nd on first production/offense? Either way...VERY much looking forward to turning the page and hoping first down production (4 or more yards) becomes a heavier focus setting ourselves up for an open playbook on 2nd and 3rd downs and helping us to become way less predictable.

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by NCommand:
Thanks thl. It's a bit late and I'm on my cell so I'll f/u tomorrow on this. Don't want to misguide anyone esp. off my memory (even if it's a bit of a moot point).

You're a respected poster that spits a lot of truth. So when you put out a stat like that, many will take it as truth. I know ragging on the HaRo offense is the trendy thing right now, but we don't have to make them seem worse than they were.

Absolutely agree. I know my original look at our first down production wasn't meant to discredit the HaRoman offense, rather something I noticed under that tenure dating back to IIRC, when Alex was here. First down production was a big focus of mine and I could usually tell you the end results just by watching how we did on first downs...even if we did have the capabilities to overcome it on 2nd and 3rd downs (CK was solid here) but it certainly wasn't making life easy on a young QB and our offense became more and more predictable to defend on 1st downs and thereafter as a result.

Originally posted by NCommand:
Correct. Post #23 explains it a bit further. Thanks Vin!

This was from my old notes:
.
.
.
Of the 19 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
12 of the 19 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 10.3 yards to go

Overall:
On 2nd downs, 66% of the time (170 of 256) we had >7 yards to go averaging 11+ yards to go. In short, 2/3rds of the time we're going BACKWARDS on 1st downs and putting ourselves in 2nd and longs, which as you know, often times snowballs from there.

I believe we ended the year still as 31st or 32nd on first production/offense? Either way...VERY much looking forward to turning the page and hoping first down production (4 or more yards) becomes a heavier focus setting ourselves up for an open playbook on 2nd and 3rd downs and helping us to become way less predictable.

I don't agree that a +3 yard gain on 1st down is "going backwards". Let's not redefine words. I telling stat would be, "of all the 2nd downs, how many were 2nd &11+." Now that's going backwards. Don't take 2nd & 7s and group that into "going backwards" so that the frequency of "going backwards" becomes higher.

Based on the handful of games you listed above, you're going to have to find quite a number of games to tip that average towards your claim that the 49ers, "AVERAGED 2nd and 12 two-thirds of the time. Averaged. Averaged I said."

My argument isn't that the 49ers were good with 1st down production, we know they were not. My argument is that going backwards, as in negative yardage, on 2/3s of their 1st downs would be a stat in futility of epic proportion, and it is not the case.

Did they go backwards on 2/3s of their 1st downs? Nope. Unless we redefine "backwards" as anything worse than a 4 yard gain.
Did they average 2nd & 12 on 2/3s of their 2nd downs over the course of the season? Nope.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by VinculumJuris:

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by Pillbusta:

Originally posted by NCommand:
I wish we were stuck in 2nd in 10! We AVERAGED 2nd and 12 two-thirds of the time. Averaged. Averaged I said. Lol

This is a very damning statement. WTF OC runs an NFL offense like this? This is amateur hour ish right here!

That is an incorrect stat and we discused this in the NYG film thread. It's half cherry picked.

It shouldn't be. I kept weekly tabs on it through the year and posted here for everyone. I may have missed the NYG film thread and the counter?

Let's just take the first game of the season and see what the 49ers faced on 2nd downs. This is omitting plays on 1st down where the 49ers netted more than 10 yards. Meaning they moved the chains on 1st down. My source is ESPN Play by play page. I'll bold the ones that help to favor your stat.
@DAL
2nd & 3
2nd & 8
2nd & 7
2nd & 11
2nd & 10
2nd & 9
2nd & 4
2nd & 10
2nd & 4
2nd & 6
2nd & 10
2nd & 3
2nd & 10
2nd & 12
2nd & 4
2nd & 6
2nd & 6
2nd & 11 (due to QB kneeldown, but let's count it)

That's an average of 2nd and 7.4. I know that's not the stat you claim though. Still, I might be cherry picking games, so let's take the crappiest offensive game of the season. In the vs SEA game, the 49ers netted 164 yards. Surely this game should swing the stat towards your claim that "We AVERAGED 2nd and 12 two-thirds of the time. Averaged."

vs SEA
2nd & 3
2nd & 10
2nd & 10
2nd & 7
2nd & 8
2nd & 20
2nd & 11
2nd & 12
2nd & 2
2nd & 5
2nd & 5
2nd & 7
2nd & 16
2nd & 10
2nd & 10
2nd & 7
2nd & 10
2nd & 4
2nd & 15

That's an average of 2nd & 9.05.
I know you stated that they averaged 2nd & 12, two-thirds of the time, not that they averaged 2nd & 12. Are you saying they are in 2nd & 12 for 66% of their 2nd downs? That's insanely bad, and not true. Either I don't understand your math, or I don't understand your stat. If that's the stat you stand by, then you gotta dig deep to find some games that swing this towards your favor.

This looks familiar.

http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/niners/180458-seattle-seahawks-coaches-game-analysis-week/page2/

Check out post 21.

Correct. Post #23 explains it a bit further. Thanks Vin!

This was from my old notes:

So, someone wondered how we were doing on 1st down production for the year. Here you go (if you want to skip the details, see "Overall" at the end):

Dallas Game:
2nd and 8
2nd and 7
2nd and 11
2nd and 10
2nd and 9
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 12

Of the 16 2nd downs we had this game here is the breakdown:
9 of the 16 times we had >7 to go averaging 9.7 yards left to go

Bears Game:
2nd and 8
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 8
2nd and 10

2nd and 10
2nd and 7
2nd and 15
2nd and 16
2nd and 7
2nd and 8
2nd and 12

Of the 20 2nd downs we had this game here is the breakdown:
14 of the 20 times we had >7 to go averaging 10.1 yards left to go

Cardinals Game:
2nd and 9
2nd and 10
2nd and 9
2nd and 13
2nd and 9
2nd and 7
2nd and 10

Of the 22 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
7 of the 22 times we had >7 to go averaging 9.6 yards left to go

Eagles Game:
2nd and 7
2nd and 10
2nd and 8
2nd and 14
2nd and 8
2nd and 18
2nd and 17
2nd and 8
2nd and 8
2nd and 7
2nd and 15
2nd and 11
2nd and 12
2nd and 9
2nd and 7
2nd and 9
2nd and 13
2nd and 7

Of the 26 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
18 of the 26 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 10.4 yards to go

Rams Game:
2nd and 10
2nd and 9
2nd and 8
2nd and 10
2nd and 9
2nd and 17
2nd and 8
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 8
2nd and 7
2nd and 7
2nd and 10
2nd and 11

Of the 22 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
14 of the 22 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 9.6 yards to go

Broncos Game:
2nd and 10
2nd and 9
2nd and 8
2nd and 10
2nd and 11
2nd and 18
2nd and 7
2nd and 8
2nd and 19
2nd and 24
2nd and 11
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 14
2nd and 9
2nd and 8
2nd and 11
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 10

Of the 26 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
20 of the 26 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 11.4 yards to go

Rams Game:
2nd and 9
2nd and 10
2nd and 17
2nd and 10
2nd and 7
2nd and 9
2nd and 10
2nd and 11
2nd and 7
2nd and 7
2nd and 19
2nd and 11
2nd and 10

Of the 20 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
13 of the 20 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 11.2 yards to go

Saints Game:
2nd and 10
2nd and 12
2nd and 8
2nd and 10
2nd and 17
2nd and 10
2nd and 12
2nd and 10
2nd and 8
2nd and 9
2nd and 19
2nd and 7
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 8
2nd and 10

Of the 25 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
17 of the 25 times we had >7 to go averaging 10.6 yards left to go

Giant's Game:
2nd and 10
2nd and 8
2nd and 7
2nd and 18
2nd and 7
2nd and 17
2nd and 9
2nd and 10
2nd and 8
2nd and 11
2nd and 7
2nd and 8
2nd and 11
2nd and 10
2nd and 9

Of the 22 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
15 of the 22 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 10 yards to go

Redskin's Game:
2nd and 10
2nd and 7
2nd and 10
2nd and 9
2nd and 9
2nd and 13
2nd and 10
2nd and 7
2nd and 15
2nd and 7
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 11
2nd and 16
2nd and 8

Of the 21 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
15 of the 21 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 10.13 yards to go

Hawk's Game:
2nd and 3
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 7
2nd and 8
2nd and 20
2nd and 11
2nd and 12
2nd and 5
2nd and 7
2nd and 16
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 7
2nd and 10
2nd and 4
2nd and 15

Of the 17 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
14 of the 17 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 12.6 yards to go

Raider's Game:
2nd and 17
2nd and 11
2nd and 5
2nd and 6
2nd and 8
2nd and 6
2nd and 7
2nd and 7
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 1
2nd and 3
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 5
2nd and 5
2nd and 8
2nd and 15

Of the 19 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
12 of the 19 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 10.3 yards to go

Overall:
On 2nd downs, 66% of the time (170 of 256) we had >7 yards to go averaging 11+ yards to go. In short, 2/3rds of the time we're going BACKWARDS on 1st downs and putting ourselves in 2nd and longs, which as you know, often times snowballs from there.

I believe we ended the year still as 31st or 32nd on first production/offense? Either way...VERY much looking forward to turning the page and hoping first down production (4 or more yards) becomes a heavier focus setting ourselves up for an open playbook on 2nd and 3rd downs and helping us to become way less predictable.

My question though is, are you omitting 2nd downs effected by penalties? There were a lot of 1st and 2nd downs where we had holding calls, delay of game, false start, offensive PI - If average holds, 2/3 of your penalties will be coming on those downs - so, that can greatly skew the numbers if we don't take those into account.

For example - the last one is "2nd and 15" sounds like a false start or delay of game there.

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by NCommand:
Correct. Post #23 explains it a bit further. Thanks Vin!

This was from my old notes:
.
.
.
Of the 19 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
12 of the 19 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 10.3 yards to go

Overall:
On 2nd downs, 66% of the time (170 of 256) we had >7 yards to go averaging 11+ yards to go. In short, 2/3rds of the time we're going BACKWARDS on 1st downs and putting ourselves in 2nd and longs, which as you know, often times snowballs from there.

I believe we ended the year still as 31st or 32nd on first production/offense? Either way...VERY much looking forward to turning the page and hoping first down production (4 or more yards) becomes a heavier focus setting ourselves up for an open playbook on 2nd and 3rd downs and helping us to become way less predictable.

I don't agree that a +3 yard gain on 1st down is "going backwards". Let's not redefine words. I telling stat would be, "of all the 2nd downs, how many were 2nd &11+." Now that's going backwards. Don't take 2nd & 7s and group that into "going backwards" so that the frequency of "going backwards" becomes higher.

Based on the handful of games you listed above, you're going to have to find quite a number of games to tip that average towards your claim that the 49ers, "AVERAGED 2nd and 12 two-thirds of the time. Averaged. Averaged I said."

My argument isn't that the 49ers were good with 1st down production, we know they were not. My argument is that going backwards, as in negative yardage, on 2/3s of their 1st downs would be a stat in futility of epic proportion, and it is not the case.

Did they go backwards on 2/3s of their 1st downs? Nope. Unless we redefine "backwards" as anything worse than a 4 yard gain.
Did they average 2nd & 12 on 2/3s of their 2nd downs over the course of the season? Nope.

I'm starting to wonder if we should do a film thread on 1st downs alone....maybe....not sure...

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by NCommand:
Correct. Post #23 explains it a bit further. Thanks Vin!

This was from my old notes:
.
.
.
Of the 19 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
12 of the 19 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 10.3 yards to go

Overall:
On 2nd downs, 66% of the time (170 of 256) we had >7 yards to go averaging 11+ yards to go. In short, 2/3rds of the time we're going BACKWARDS on 1st downs and putting ourselves in 2nd and longs, which as you know, often times snowballs from there.

I believe we ended the year still as 31st or 32nd on first production/offense? Either way...VERY much looking forward to turning the page and hoping first down production (4 or more yards) becomes a heavier focus setting ourselves up for an open playbook on 2nd and 3rd downs and helping us to become way less predictable.

I don't agree that a +3 yard gain on 1st down is "going backwards". Let's not redefine words. I telling stat would be, "of all the 2nd downs, how many were 2nd &11+." Now that's going backwards. Don't take 2nd & 7s and group that into "going backwards" so that the frequency of "going backwards" becomes higher.

Based on the handful of games you listed above, you're going to have to find quite a number of games to tip that average towards your claim that the 49ers, "AVERAGED 2nd and 12 two-thirds of the time. Averaged. Averaged I said."

My argument isn't that the 49ers were good with 1st down production, we know they were not. My argument is that going backwards, as in negative yardage, on 2/3s of their 1st downs would be a stat in futility of epic proportion, and it is not the case.

Did they go backwards on 2/3s of their 1st downs? Nope. Unless we redefine "backwards" as anything worse than a 4 yard gain.
Did they average 2nd & 12 on 2/3s of their 2nd downs over the course of the season? Nope.

Granted I get what you're saying and we all should probably be a bit more careful with our words when speaking in absolutes, but that overall average is f**king terrible.

I just took a quick look at the stats for the Raiders game (because I'm on my phone and at work and don't have much time) and averaging it out it comes to about 8.5. So 2nd and 8.5 is where we usually started, atleast against the Raiders. It'd be interesting to see 2nd down production also because I remember us being in 3rd and long quite often.

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Correct. Post #23 explains it a bit further. Thanks Vin!

This was from my old notes:
.
.
.
Of the 19 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
12 of the 19 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 10.3 yards to go

Overall:
On 2nd downs, 66% of the time (170 of 256) we had >7 yards to go averaging 11+ yards to go. In short, 2/3rds of the time we're going BACKWARDS on 1st downs and putting ourselves in 2nd and longs, which as you know, often times snowballs from there.

I believe we ended the year still as 31st or 32nd on first production/offense? Either way...VERY much looking forward to turning the page and hoping first down production (4 or more yards) becomes a heavier focus setting ourselves up for an open playbook on 2nd and 3rd downs and helping us to become way less predictable.

I don't agree that a +3 yard gain on 1st down is "going backwards". Let's not redefine words. I telling stat would be, "of all the 2nd downs, how many were 2nd &11+." Now that's going backwards. Don't take 2nd & 7s and group that into "going backwards" so that the frequency of "going backwards" becomes higher.

Based on the handful of games you listed above, you're going to have to find quite a number of games to tip that average towards your claim that the 49ers, "AVERAGED 2nd and 12 two-thirds of the time. Averaged. Averaged I said."

My argument isn't that the 49ers were good with 1st down production, we know they were not. My argument is that going backwards, as in negative yardage, on 2/3s of their 1st downs would be a stat in futility of epic proportion, and it is not the case.

Did they go backwards on 2/3s of their 1st downs? Nope. Unless we redefine "backwards" as anything worse than a 4 yard gain.
Did they average 2nd & 12 on 2/3s of their 2nd downs over the course of the season? Nope.

I'm starting to wonder if we should do a film thread on 1st downs alone....maybe....not sure...

What will it accomplish...the playcalling was horrible and they didn't know how to set up a rhythm or use the whole field

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
What will it accomplish...the playcalling was horrible and they didn't know how to set up a rhythm or use the whole field

but that's what it can accomplish - answering if it was playcalling, execution or what. We can't just throw out "the playcalling was horrible" just because it sounds good or say that(I've heard this a LOT) "it was obvious to anyone watching". Well, no, it's really not.

I've watched nearly every passing play the 49ers ran all last year nearly 9 times each play. What I can tell you is that almost all of our passing plays are WCO plays and we saw cover 3 zone most of the time - the question that I would like to have answered is, why we couldn't get better passing production on first down? Was the defense just playing run and trying to take away the intermediate passing lanes? Were they focused on removing Boldin on first down? What was the problem? Was it in the design of the plays?(I highly doubt from what I recall), was it in CK's footwork? Was it in his progression reading? Was it in receivers running crisp routes? Was it in the timing of the routes and QB? Was it in the types of plays called?

Each answer will lead to different solutions and possible problems. If it's footwork and progressions - that's both on coaching and player(Chryst would be included in that coaching as well) if it's play type(i.e. always calling a levels concept on 1st down) that's predictable - on the playcaller. If it's the receivers' timing being out of sync - that's on the players and WR coach.

So, if we're going to assign blame - what right do we have to assign blame ignorantly?