Colin Kaepernick Thread

Originally posted by jonnydel:
I'm starting to wonder if we should do a film thread on 1st downs alone....maybe....not sure...

That might be a great idea. I think through it we can ID some patterns that sort of played into that lack of production while keeping perspective. For instance, we ran between the tackles quite a bit on first downs and whether successful or not, that approach was used to set up play action on second downs?

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
What will it accomplish...the playcalling was horrible and they didn't know how to set up a rhythm or use the whole field

but that's what it can accomplish - answering if it was playcalling, execution or what. We can't just throw out "the playcalling was horrible" just because it sounds good or say that(I've heard this a LOT) "it was obvious to anyone watching". Well, no, it's really not.

I've watched nearly every passing play the 49ers ran all last year nearly 9 times each play. What I can tell you is that almost all of our passing plays are WCO plays and we saw cover 3 zone most of the time - the question that I would like to have answered is, why we couldn't get better passing production on first down? Was the defense just playing run and trying to take away the intermediate passing lanes? Were they focused on removing Boldin on first down? What was the problem? Was it in the design of the plays?(I highly doubt from what I recall), was it in CK's footwork? Was it in his progression reading? Was it in receivers running crisp routes? Was it in the timing of the routes and QB? Was it in the types of plays called?

Each answer will lead to different solutions and possible problems. If it's footwork and progressions - that's both on coaching and player(Chryst would be included in that coaching as well) if it's play type(i.e. always calling a levels concept on 1st down) that's predictable - on the playcaller. If it's the receivers' timing being out of sync - that's on the players and WR coach.

So, if we're going to assign blame - what right do we have to assign blame ignorantly?

Truth!

Originally posted by NCommand:
That might be a great idea. I think through it we can ID some patterns that sort of played into that lack of production while keeping perspective. For instance, we ran between the tackles quite a bit on first downs and whether successful or not, that approach was used to set up play action on second downs?

I know it'd be quite a chore to tabulate all that info - might take a few weeks. We might have to tag team it. But, i'm down. When I went through all the passing concepts on the year, I didn't watch much of the run game - so I don't have the numbers on that and I didn't record down and distance all the time. I did some of the time if I felt it affected the play, but, for the most part, I was just focused on the play design, defense and results of the play.

Originally posted by NCommand:
Correct. Post #23 explains it a bit further. Thanks Vin!

You're welcome. Just to be clear: I still disagree with the way you are using those numbers to draw that conclusion. Based on this thread, it sounds like I'm not the only one. I just don't see much reason to argue about it because I agree with the conclusion (we were garbage on first down).

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by NCommand:
Correct. Post #23 explains it a bit further. Thanks Vin!

This was from my old notes:
.
.
.
Of the 19 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown:
12 of the 19 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 10.3 yards to go

Overall:
On 2nd downs, 66% of the time (170 of 256) we had >7 yards to go averaging 11+ yards to go. In short, 2/3rds of the time we're going BACKWARDS on 1st downs and putting ourselves in 2nd and longs, which as you know, often times snowballs from there.

I believe we ended the year still as 31st or 32nd on first production/offense? Either way...VERY much looking forward to turning the page and hoping first down production (4 or more yards) becomes a heavier focus setting ourselves up for an open playbook on 2nd and 3rd downs and helping us to become way less predictable.

I don't agree that a +3 yard gain on 1st down is "going backwards". Let's not redefine words. I telling stat would be, "of all the 2nd downs, how many were 2nd &11+." Now that's going backwards. Don't take 2nd & 7s and group that into "going backwards" so that the frequency of "going backwards" becomes higher.

Based on the handful of games you listed above, you're going to have to find quite a number of games to tip that average towards your claim that the 49ers, "AVERAGED 2nd and 12 two-thirds of the time. Averaged. Averaged I said."

My argument isn't that the 49ers were good with 1st down production, we know they were not. My argument is that going backwards, as in negative yardage, on 2/3s of their 1st downs would be a stat in futility of epic proportion, and it is not the case.

Did they go backwards on 2/3s of their 1st downs? Nope. Unless we redefine "backwards" as anything worse than a 4 yard gain.
Did they average 2nd & 12 on 2/3s of their 2nd downs over the course of the season? Nope.

Yeah, "success," by the books, on first down production is defined as 4 or more yards. That's the operational definition. And you are right, my statement was based on a cumulative average yards to go on 2nd downs for the year. But this is why, like you, I listed all 2nd-and-yards-to-go as well for each game. While gaining 3 yards is not a negative play, if the next play we get a 7 yard sack, the average of that...and cumulative...will be a average loss of those two plays.

Dallas Game:
2nd and 8 2nd and 7
2nd and 11
2nd and 10
2nd and 9
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 12

Of the 16 2nd downs we had this game here is the breakdown: 9 of the 16 times we had >7 to go averaging 9.7 yards left to go


Conversely, this mean 7 times we gained 4 or more yards (i.e. success).

But you are right...I probably s/h worded it more detailed to be more accurate so that fans here knew it was a cumulative average-yards-to-go for the year.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

What will it accomplish...the playcalling was horrible and they didn't know how to set up a rhythm or use the whole field

but that's what it can accomplish - answering if it was playcalling, execution or what. We can't just throw out "the playcalling was horrible" just because it sounds good or say that(I've heard this a LOT) "it was obvious to anyone watching". Well, no, it's really not.

I've watched nearly every passing play the 49ers ran all last year nearly 9 times each play. What I can tell you is that almost all of our passing plays are WCO plays and we saw cover 3 zone most of the time - the question that I would like to have answered is, why we couldn't get better passing production on first down? Was the defense just playing run and trying to take away the intermediate passing lanes? Were they focused on removing Boldin on first down? What was the problem? Was it in the design of the plays?(I highly doubt from what I recall), was it in CK's footwork? Was it in his progression reading? Was it in receivers running crisp routes? Was it in the timing of the routes and QB? Was it in the types of plays called?

Each answer will lead to different solutions and possible problems. If it's footwork and progressions - that's both on coaching and player(Chryst would be included in that coaching as well) if it's play type(i.e. always calling a levels concept on 1st down) that's predictable - on the playcaller. If it's the receivers' timing being out of sync - that's on the players and WR coach.

So, if we're going to assign blame - what right do we have to assign blame ignorantly?

Truth!

You can break down any play...but it's how and when you use they play

How many of the pass plays where a rb was the first option like a wco, how many Times was it predicable we were passing after a run for no gain....how many times did we run the same damn plays every game

The plays might look good , but if coach can't use them correctly then the plays are useless

Naw I'm not doing a breakdown on all 1st down plays. I did that for the NYG game and it was tedious.
http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/niners/180298-giants-coaches-film-analysis/page25/#post365

Originally posted by Dsoto87:
Granted I get what you're saying and we all should probably be a bit more careful with our words when speaking in absolutes, but that overall average is f**king terrible.

I just took a quick look at the stats for the Raiders game (because I'm on my phone and at work and don't have much time) and averaging it out it comes to about 8.5. So 2nd and 8.5 is where we usually started, atleast against the Raiders. It'd be interesting to see 2nd down production also because I remember us being in 3rd and long quite often.

No arguments here that 2nd and 8.5 is bad, but it's not going backwards to set up 2nd & 12. NC, I don't want to bust your balls any further, but like I said, you are a respected poster and when you put out stats, many will take it as truth. A stat such as the one you put forth, the way you worded it, would set some sort of record for offensive ineptness. The HaRo offense doesn't need our help to look worse.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
I just remember them being in 2nd and long A LOT, 2nd and 7, 2nd and 8 was pretty normal from what I can recall. They ranked either second or third worst in the NFL in first down production, right around heavyweights like Jacksonville.

why did we always call for a pass play that got five yards when we were at third and 9
why did they line up miller up top of your tv screen
why were they in love with the fullback dive

I trust and have faith ck , the players and the new coaches learned from those mistakes and we will never see that garbage again

Originally posted by NCommand:
Yeah, "success," by the books, on first down production is defined as 4 or more yards. That's the operational definition. And you are right, my statement was based on a cumulative average yards to go on 2nd downs for the year. But this is why, like you, I listed all 2nd-and-yards-to-go as well for each game. While gaining 3 yards is not a negative play, if the next play we get a 7 yard sack, the average of that...and cumulative...will be a average loss of those two plays.

Dallas Game:
2nd and 8 2nd and 7
2nd and 11
2nd and 10
2nd and 9
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 12

Of the 16 2nd downs we had this game here is the breakdown: 9 of the 16 times we had >7 to go averaging 9.7 yards left to go


Conversely, this mean 7 times we gained 4 or more yards (i.e. success).

But you are right...I probably s/h worded it more detailed to be more accurate so that fans here knew it was a cumulative average-yards-to-go for the year.

I listed all the 2nd downs for DAL in a recent previous post. The 49ers need to step it up on 1st downs. We good.

Originally posted by thl408:
Naw I'm not doing a breakdown on all 1st down plays. I did that for the NYG game and it was tedious.
http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/niners/180298-giants-coaches-film-analysis/page25/#post365

Originally posted by Dsoto87:
Granted I get what you're saying and we all should probably be a bit more careful with our words when speaking in absolutes, but that overall average is f**king terrible.

I just took a quick look at the stats for the Raiders game (because I'm on my phone and at work and don't have much time) and averaging it out it comes to about 8.5. So 2nd and 8.5 is where we usually started, atleast against the Raiders. It'd be interesting to see 2nd down production also because I remember us being in 3rd and long quite often.

No arguments here that 2nd and 8.5 is bad, but it's not going backwards to set up 2nd & 12. NC, I don't want to bust your balls any further, but like I said, you are a respected poster and when you put out stats, many will take it as truth. A stat such as the one you put forth, the way you worded it, would set some sort of record for offensive ineptness. The HaRo offense doesn't need our help to look worse.

haha, tell me about it, the passing concepts for the season was tedious lol. I still have 2 games to watch - not including week 17 haha.

Originally posted by cciowa:

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
I just remember them being in 2nd and long A LOT, 2nd and 7, 2nd and 8 was pretty normal from what I can recall. They ranked either second or third worst in the NFL in first down production, right around heavyweights like Jacksonville.

why did we always call for a pass play that got five yards when we were at third and 9
why did they line up miller up top of your tv screen
why were they in love with the fullback dive

I trust and have faith ck , the players and the new coaches learned from those mistakes and we will never see that garbage again

The bolded does make me chuckle because i've heard that so many times from different people. It's about creatively using a personnel package. If a defense ALWAYS plays you cover 3 zone when you're in a 21 personnel, why not use 21 personnel to spread the field and isolate a WR on a LB??? Isn't that playing to the predictability of the defense? Also, we averaged a high completion percentage whenever Miller was spread out wide.....

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by NCommand:
That might be a great idea. I think through it we can ID some patterns that sort of played into that lack of production while keeping perspective. For instance, we ran between the tackles quite a bit on first downs and whether successful or not, that approach was used to set up play action on second downs?

I know it'd be quite a chore to tabulate all that info - might take a few weeks. We might have to tag team it. But, i'm down. When I went through all the passing concepts on the year, I didn't watch much of the run game - so I don't have the numbers on that and I didn't record down and distance all the time. I did some of the time if I felt it affected the play, but, for the most part, I was just focused on the play design, defense and results of the play.

I'll tell you want, you can just about cherry pick any game (or 2) for the year b/c for the most part, that pattern was pretty consistent game-to-game. The worst IIRC was the Hawks game at home (the game Harbaugh was allegibly fired after).

Hawk's Game:
2nd and 3
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 7
2nd and 8
2nd and 20
2nd and 11
2nd and 12
2nd and 5
2nd and 7
2nd and 16
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 7
2nd and 10
2nd and 4
2nd and 15

Of the 17 2nd downs we had this game, here is the breakdown (only 3 successes on first down):
14 of the 17 times we had >7 yards to go averaging 12.6 yards to go


One of the better games was the first games...Dallas:

Dallas Game:
2nd and 8
2nd and 7
2nd and 11
2nd and 10
2nd and 9
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 10
2nd and 12

Of the 16 2nd downs we had this game here is the breakdown (7 successes on first downs!):
9 of the 16 times we had >7 to go averaging 9.7 yards left to go

Originally posted by jonnydel:
but that's what it can accomplish - answering if it was playcalling, execution or what. We can't just throw out "the playcalling was horrible" just because it sounds good or say that(I've heard this a LOT) "it was obvious to anyone watching". Well, no, it's really not.

I've watched nearly every passing play the 49ers ran all last year nearly 9 times each play. What I can tell you is that almost all of our passing plays are WCO plays and we saw cover 3 zone most of the time - the question that I would like to have answered is, why we couldn't get better passing production on first down? Was the defense just playing run and trying to take away the intermediate passing lanes? Were they focused on removing Boldin on first down? What was the problem? Was it in the design of the plays?(I highly doubt from what I recall), was it in CK's footwork? Was it in his progression reading? Was it in receivers running crisp routes? Was it in the timing of the routes and QB? Was it in the types of plays called?

Each answer will lead to different solutions and possible problems. If it's footwork and progressions - that's both on coaching and player(Chryst would be included in that coaching as well) if it's play type(i.e. always calling a levels concept on 1st down) that's predictable - on the playcaller. If it's the receivers' timing being out of sync - that's on the players and WR coach.

So, if we're going to assign blame - what right do we have to assign blame ignorantly?

It's hard for me to believe someone who says he's watched every pass play nine times and then wonders about the possible reasons for lack of production, but never mentions pass protection.

Kaepernick was sacked 52 times, the most in the league. Any analysis that overlooks this doesn't have much credibility IMO. And according to PFF, Kaepernick is responsible for just 7% of those sacks. The pass protection was horrible. That's the first thing anyone should know about the Niners passing game last season. Without good protection, no scheme is going to work well.

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by cciowa:

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
I just remember them being in 2nd and long A LOT, 2nd and 7, 2nd and 8 was pretty normal from what I can recall. They ranked either second or third worst in the NFL in first down production, right around heavyweights like Jacksonville.

why did we always call for a pass play that got five yards when we were at third and 9
why did they line up miller up top of your tv screen
why were they in love with the fullback dive

I trust and have faith ck , the players and the new coaches learned from those mistakes and we will never see that garbage again

The bolded does make me chuckle because i've heard that so many times from different people. It's about creatively using a personnel package. If a defense ALWAYS plays you cover 3 zone when you're in a 21 personnel, why not use 21 personnel to spread the field and isolate a WR on a LB??? Isn't that playing to the predictability of the defense? Also, we averaged a high completion percentage whenever Miller was spread out wide.....

i guess you are a fan of that, sorry. to me it made no sense to line him up , play miss lloyd while you had stevie and two kids on the bench playing checkers,, s**t like that retarded the development of our two kids and as a result we still do not know what we have in those two

Originally posted by thl408:
I listed all the 2nd downs for DAL in a recent previous post. The 49ers need to step it up on 1st downs. We good.

You bet!