Originally posted by NYniner85:I think you are going about your Franchise QB analysis the wrong way. I think you are looking at 1st round picks and looking at starter level QB's and playoffs. I look at super bowl teams. First of all Super Bowl teams are outliers. They are at the extreme end of the 95% confidence interval level. Looking simply at 1st round QB starters in the NFL doesn't really tell you anything about winning super bowls. You mention the Buffalo Bills, and Jim Kelly, a franchise QB - and you look at his defenses and only in 1990 did he really have a top of the line defense that ranked high in yards and points.
Originally posted by Giedi:
I'm sure you can also give me the lotto numbers for the next million dollar lotto prize too, eh?
I don't know, maybe you are right, maybe not. But Keller would be the kind of QB I think Kyle would at least take a look at. He plays in a pro-style offense and he can be easily graded because of that. Same with Wilton. If they do well this next year - they just might be in the 2nd to 4rth rounds and I'm thinking Kyle can build a team around guys like these a lot easier than guys that play in the spread or run oriented kinds of offenses.
It's odds man...it's 5.5% success rate since 2004 and that's looking at the top 32 picks vs 192 picks on a yearly basis. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand the odds are FAR from good.
If you want to continue to go down the baalke route and not value the QB position fine....good teams invest in it and that's a fact. It's 2017 not 1970 the game is played differently and the rules have made it so that the QB position is that much more important....go look at who gets paid the most. It's not a RB, OT, or any defensive player....it's the QB.
By Inordinately focusing your attention on Franchise Level QB's, you will miss the fact that Super Bowls are won by top of the line defenses. Now, I understand your point about QB's that extraordinarily physically and mentally talented will only be available in the first round, and I agree with that, but again if you look at how super bowl teams are put together - they first of all have a system. Then they get players to play in that system.
As an example of a system, I was lucky enough to listen into a discussion with Bill Curry - center for the Green Bay Packers back in 1966. He was talking about the fact that Vince Lombardi was one of the most forward thinking coaches in the country, not because he knew X's and O's, (and he did know that - if you look at his green bay sweep play) but the fact that he racially integrated black players with white players in the NFL. No coach during that time would do it to the extent that he did during those racially charged times. Vince actively recruited, drafted, and traded for talented mid range black players. Bill says he had the highest proportion of African American players in the NFL during the heyday of the Green Bay Packers. Bill says it was an edge he had for a long time before the other coaches figured it out, and he believed that's why the Green Bay Packers three-peated, and no one else has done so ever since. Who was his QB? A guy named Bart and yeah he was picked in the first round. (kidding - he'd be undrafted today)
If you look at the Pittsburg Steelers, you are looking at a Sid Gillman offense coupled with a defense.
If you look at Tom Landry, it was basically Vince Lombardi's system, coupled with the Flex Defense, which was his own take on defending the *run to daylight* offensive approach by Vince.
Walsh - nuff said.
Point I'm making is that if you want to win super bowls, you start with defense. Not so much the QB. Yes, you do need a Franchise QB. Yes you do need a QB with *balls* as one very knowledgeable poster said very eloquently, but what you really need a QB that doesn't make bone headed mistakes and you build a balanced team around him so he can move the ball against good defenses. But you need a good system and the players to fit the system, and I just don't think Kyle needs that first round QB with a rocket launcher arm and gazelle legs, in my opinion to build a super bowl team around.
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