Really? Vegas picks us for 4.5 Ws...

Originally posted by JBrack:
No its not.

Odds have a favorite and an underdog.

The 49ers are -110 each way like most teams.

What are the odds of -110 vs -110? Whos is the favorite and how does the pay structure work?

easy, the odds are equal of both happening

-110 has 52% chance of winning which gives you 90% of what ever you bet

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

OP.....Vegas didnt "pick us for 4.5 wins." That is not how lines work.

Lines are set at a number that the linesmakers believe there will be as close to even amount of bets on both sides. It has absolutely NOTHING to do with what they think is going to be the outcome. They set lines to generate interest in betting on both sides.

In this example, the Niners over/under was set at 4.5 because they think that is the number that will generate similar amount of bets on both over 4.5 and under 4.5. It doesnt mean Vegas thinks the 49ers will win 4.5 games (as everyone knows is physically impossible).

Yes and no.

The original line is based on their estimates.

How the line moves after is based on how heavy the bets are on one side. Usually they adjust the juice to sway the bets. If it is still one sided, then they move the line.

Originally posted by blizzuntz:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

OP.....Vegas didnt "pick us for 4.5 wins." That is not how lines work.

Lines are set at a number that the linesmakers believe there will be as close to even amount of bets on both sides. It has absolutely NOTHING to do with what they think is going to be the outcome. They set lines to generate interest in betting on both sides.

In this example, the Niners over/under was set at 4.5 because they think that is the number that will generate similar amount of bets on both over 4.5 and under 4.5. It doesnt mean Vegas thinks the 49ers will win 4.5 games (as everyone knows is physically impossible).

Yes and no.

The original line is based on their estimates.

How the line moves after is based on how heavy the bets are on one side. Usually they adjust the juice to sway the bets. If it is still one sided, then they move the line.

The original line is set to at a number to hope for even amount of bets on each side. Period. It is not what they think will happen. How the line moves is based on bets to attempt to even out the bets on both sides.

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:

This was a 5 WIN team with tomsul? You gotta be kidding about 4.5 with every single aspect of this team improved except QB...and there is no guarantee with kyle, we aren't improved there also. This just seems so lopsided.

I have a feeling you are in for a long painful season.

The team filled holes, but this team is in transition and rebuilding. They have a lot of young talent that needs to progress and gain experience. Hoyer isn't a winning qb with minimal wr talent. Thomas and Foster look good, but how good will Thomas be in year one, and It's possible Foster will need more surgery. Will Foster even be available next year, that's up in the air right now. I love the Whitherspoon pick but again he's a rookie and needs to learn to be more physical. There are questions all up and down this roster. Till those questions are answered... u can't possibly be certain we will get more then 4-5 wins.

With that said the team in headed in the right direction. It wouldn't surprise me one way or another only 4 wins or more.

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Originally posted by CityKing415:
We will shock the league like we did in 2011... all on Hoyers ability and Bows health..

Originally posted by JBrack:

I think im going to start a gambling thread up. These guys need major help and are really confused!

I would love a gambling thread. I say do it

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by blizzuntz:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

OP.....Vegas didnt "pick us for 4.5 wins." That is not how lines work.

Lines are set at a number that the linesmakers believe there will be as close to even amount of bets on both sides. It has absolutely NOTHING to do with what they think is going to be the outcome. They set lines to generate interest in betting on both sides.

In this example, the Niners over/under was set at 4.5 because they think that is the number that will generate similar amount of bets on both over 4.5 and under 4.5. It doesnt mean Vegas thinks the 49ers will win 4.5 games (as everyone knows is physically impossible).

Yes and no.

The original line is based on their estimates.

How the line moves after is based on how heavy the bets are on one side. Usually they adjust the juice to sway the bets. If it is still one sided, then they move the line.

The original line is set to at a number to hope for even amount of bets on each side. Period. It is not what they think will happen. How the line moves is based on bets to attempt to even out the bets on both sides.

Nope .

They creates lines with a formula involving power rankings.

That info is handed to a head lines man who puts a final line.

Next they go to a closed room where early lines are shown to sharps and heavy hitters and they make wagers.

Then based on that action , the head lines adjust the lines before releasing to public.

Then the lines moves based on public money and sharp money to even it out (like I said in original quote)

And that's how lines are set.

Usually mirage goes 1st and planet holly wood.

But of course the books WANT equal action on both sides.

Originally posted by Senzino:

Originally posted by JBrack:
I think im going to start a gambling thread up. These guys need major help and are really confused!

I would love a gambling thread. I say do it

+2

Oh yes, the weeping and gnashing of teeth on a weekly basis... and of course the bragging rights... and the arguing / debates

Originally posted by LVJay:

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Originally posted by CityKing415:

We will shock the league like we did in 2011... all on Hoyers ability and Bows health..

Hoyer will be Alex Smith 2.0 with better play calling and Bow will benefit from the scheme changes IMO.

Originally posted by LVJay:
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Originally posted by CityKing415:
We will shock the league like we did in 2011... all on Hoyers ability and Bows health..

Would appreciate that. However, back then we had a QB that was taken 1st ovr and a solid defense that "just" needed a pass-rusher and a little bit of help in the secondary.
However, this year we seem to have some talent on the defensive side of the ball but we also have a lot of question marks due to new coaching staff, a rookie DC and a new system. And Hoyer, with all due respect to Shanahan, is average at best; there is absolutely potential left.

Originally posted by SmokeCrabtrees:
Hoyer will be Alex Smith 2.0 with better play calling and Bow will benefit from the scheme changes IMO.

Sorry but Alex is a starter in this league for a reason. Hoyer isn't. And it's not like the NFL teams are set at QB...
I see, a "good" draft and all of the sudden a hype as high as a monsterwave is rolling through the 'zone.

Originally posted by communist:

Originally posted by SmokeCrabtrees:

Hoyer will be Alex Smith 2.0 with better play calling and Bow will benefit from the scheme changes IMO.

Sorry but Alex is a starter in this league for a reason. Hoyer isn't. And it's not like the NFL teams are set at QB...
I see, a "good" draft and all of the sudden a hype as high as a monsterwave is rolling through the 'zone.

Alex was not considered a good starter before 2011, I had hopes he'd turn it around and he did so. Hoyer has a chance to show he can be a good game manager here as well.

Originally posted by communist:

Originally posted by LVJay:
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Originally posted by CityKing415:
We will shock the league like we did in 2011... all on Hoyers ability and Bows health..

Would appreciate that. However, back then we had a QB that was taken 1st ovr and a solid defense that "just" needed a pass-rusher and a little bit of help in the secondary.
However, this year we seem to have some talent on the defensive side of the ball but we also have a lot of question marks due to new coaching staff, a rookie DC and a new system. And Hoyer, with all due respect to Shanahan, is average at best; there is absolutely potential left.

As I recall (correct me if I'm wrong), Alex got some training in the offseason with a pitching coach plus time with Harbaugh so that was good for us because he did improve a lot from the previous Alex. You're on point about the defense then too.

I'm just enjoying some fine koolaid in here, that's all. However, I'm not going to underestimate Shanny's ability. He's an unknown as far as being a head coach (from coordinator)... he can either be average, which isn't bad for the first year, or he can over achieve. I don't think underachieving is something he does. If a lot of the players turn out to be average / mediocre I'd still say he can pull out 5 wins w/out a doubt. Even with Hoyer, I'm sticking with 7-9

Originally posted by LVJay:

Originally posted by communist:

Originally posted by LVJay:

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Originally posted by CityKing415:

We will shock the league like we did in 2011... all on Hoyers ability and Bows health..

Would appreciate that. However, back then we had a QB that was taken 1st ovr and a solid defense that "just" needed a pass-rusher and a little bit of help in the secondary.
However, this year we seem to have some talent on the defensive side of the ball but we also have a lot of question marks due to new coaching staff, a rookie DC and a new system. And Hoyer, with all due respect to Shanahan, is average at best; there is absolutely potential left.

As I recall (correct me if I'm wrong), Alex got some training in the offseason with a pitching coach plus time with Harbaugh so that was good for us because he did improve a lot from the previous Alex. You're on point about the defense then too.

I'm just enjoying some fine koolaid in here, that's all. However, I'm not going to underestimate Shanny's ability. He's an unknown as far as being a head coach (from coordinator)... he can either be average, which isn't bad for the first year, or he can over achieve. I don't think underachieving is something he does. If a lot of the players turn out to be average / mediocre I'd still say he can pull out 5 wins w/out a doubt. Even with Hoyer, I'm sticking with 7-9

I don't really care for the term over achieving in the NFL if we're talking records. I mean unless a team gets 4 game winning ST TD's, I don't think you really stumble. Am I wrong for saying we could've finished 6-10 or 7-9 last year? I don't think you could say NO Smoke, cause we had chances to WIN ball games, against some good teams too. That, along with the off season, I'm not predicting anything and gonna hope for the best no matter what.

Originally posted by SmokeCrabtrees:

Originally posted by LVJay:

Originally posted by communist:

Originally posted by LVJay:
.

Originally posted by CityKing415:
We will shock the league like we did in 2011... all on Hoyers ability and Bows health..

Would appreciate that. However, back then we had a QB that was taken 1st ovr and a solid defense that "just" needed a pass-rusher and a little bit of help in the secondary.
However, this year we seem to have some talent on the defensive side of the ball but we also have a lot of question marks due to new coaching staff, a rookie DC and a new system. And Hoyer, with all due respect to Shanahan, is average at best; there is absolutely potential left.

As I recall (correct me if I'm wrong), Alex got some training in the offseason with a pitching coach plus time with Harbaugh so that was good for us because he did improve a lot from the previous Alex. You're on point about the defense then too.

I'm just enjoying some fine koolaid in here, that's all. However, I'm not going to underestimate Shanny's ability. He's an unknown as far as being a head coach (from coordinator)... he can either be average, which isn't bad for the first year, or he can over achieve. I don't think underachieving is something he does. If a lot of the players turn out to be average / mediocre I'd still say he can pull out 5 wins w/out a doubt. Even with Hoyer, I'm sticking with 7-9

I don't really care for the term over achieving in the NFL if we're talking records. I mean unless a team gets 4 game winning ST TD's, I don't think you really stumble. Am I wrong for saying we could've finished 6-10 or 7-9 last year? I don't think you could say NO Smoke, cause we had chances to WIN ball games, against some good teams too. That, along with the off season, I'm not predicting anything and gonna hope for the best no matter what.

We were so out coached last year, especially in 2nd half of most games (no adjustments)... the upgrade on depth and new coaching staff is why I'm enjoying some fine koolaid. Not only will we look better as a team in 4 qtrs, we'll be in more close games (winning some of them). Can't wait for camp, preseason, then kickoff.