Really? Vegas picks us for 4.5 Ws...

Depends if we win the close ones.

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
True, but looking at the weekly point spread, (Vegas), we are 1-15. Now a question for you all with betting experience. How do the oddsmakers in Vegas set the Wins at 4.5, yet on a weekly basis we come out 1-15 given the Vegas weekly point spreads. Someone want to explain that one?

Point spreads are set so Vegas can make the most money on a line. It is not set to represent the outcome of a game.

That means good/public teams (Packers, Steelers, Cowboys) are "overrated" by Vegas and their point spreads are inflated as a result. Because more people bet on those homer/good teams, Vegas makes the line higher in order to generate more income and protect themselves from losing money.

(SIDE NOTE - The Patriots are often so good that they "break" Vegas, meaning the sportsbooks often can't figure out how to set the line high enough in order to protect themselves from Bill & Brady covering consistently... it's an issue week-to-week)

So generally, in most cases, it favors the public to take underrated teams, especially if those teams are underdogs in a favorable spot.

The easiest way I can explain it... the public-Cardinals were -4.5 point favorites going into Buffalo in Week 3.

The dog-Bills were coming off a worse-than-it-looked loss to the Jets on a TNF game. Greg Roman had just been fired as offensive coordinator. The narrative that week was that the Bills were done, and thus, Vegas smelled blood and made the Cardinals road-favorites. That's the first sign of a trap game.

A highly-rated Cardinals team, that nearly made it to the Super Bowl, coming off a blowout-win over the Bucs in Arizona... easy public play.

A mediocre Bills team with a new OC, but with extra rest and playing at home, getting points... sexy sharp play.

The public was all over the Cardinals, despite them having to travel across the country and play at 10AM PST. The sharps were all over the Bills.

Bills stomped the Cards 33-18.

Not only did the Cards lose, they didn't keep it close. And even if they somehow did win the game, Vegas still had the -4.5 protection.

Lines are mostly about making money off of the dumb-Budweiser-drinking-public. It's based off of team-rankings Vegas adjusts every week and is not necessarily the predicted margin of victory or loss. It's simply how many points they're willing to spot in order to make the most money.

I love the 49ers and have been a fan since I was 5, and I am now 41. We added a solid #2 WR with Garcon, another WR from the Bills that I would say is a solid #2 as well. Tim Hightower was a good add for 1 year, but is on the tail end of his career. Hoyer is a good 'hold me over' type of QB who i do feel is a solid #2 QB, which is better then we had the last two years in that Hoyer is a traditional pocket qb. Adding Foster and Solomon in the draft was just awesome. Joe Williams at RB will be a steal in the draft. And we got a good CB too. With all that said, I have to agree with a previous veteran poster; we still are a ways away from competing for division titles let alone a Superbowl birth. We had the worst team talent-wise, and adding good, not great, but good veterans that are mostly at the tail end of their careers, was good for us. They know Kyle's system and can help teach it to the younger guys, which i think is why we got them above some other free agents out there. And having an 'A' Draft was a great way for Lynch and Kyle to begin the rebuilding process. But a good offseason along with a great draft is just the start and in no way alone puts us where we need to be.
There is a lot of talent in our division, and with where we were and where we still need to get to, I think we are looking at a 6 win season my friends. I am OK with that. To go from 2-14 to 6-10, while I am NOT settling here, it still is a solid beginning to a turn-around. With a 6-10 record, that should put us at about #15-18 in the 2018 Draft. If for some reason the deal with Kirk Cousins does not go thru, we should have the picks needed to put together a package to move up the draft board to select a good QB in 2018, with 2018 being much much deeper at the QB position. There are 3 QB's that are looked at right now in 2018 as potential franchise QB's, and that may increase depending on how that QB class performs this year in college.
Regardless, it has been a while since I have been this excited for the 49ers during an offseason! And wow, looking back at Trent, and the guys he picked in his drafts, along with the guys he passed on, holy crap guys! I know to a certain degree the draft is a crap-shoot, but still, we do get a rough idea of what the players can be like with solid scouting. And Trent really screwed up the last few drafts, I feel, since that horrible 2012 draft. He had a very few decent picks mixed in, but all-in-all, he did not do a good job drafting. He was afraid to draft a WR ever since Jenkins, and look where that got us at that position?! Anyway, he is gone, and if this past draft is any sort of clue at all about how Lynch will do as a GM, then I am pretty excited. If Lynch turns out to be a really good GM, and Kyle a real good couch, then I tell ya, Jed York would have turned around his own reputation pretty darn well. Looking at things like contracts though, I would not be too surprised to see us trade Vance McDonald (they already tried during the draft), as well as Brooks. Brooks is up there in age, and carries a heavy price tag.

4 1/2 is about right. I don't know how long Hoyer can hold down the fort before giving way to Barkley or Beathard. Our Qb situation is not ideal. I'd be surprised if we win more than 5 games.

Originally posted by JBrack:

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
True, but looking at the weekly point spread, (Vegas), we are 1-15. Now a question for you all with betting experience. How do the oddsmakers in Vegas set the Wins at 4.5, yet on a weekly basis we come out 1-15 given the Vegas weekly point spreads. Someone want to explain that one?

Its not always what vegas believes is the win total. The number represents what they think will bring in even bets on both sides.

Yep, not too many people understand how Vegas actually works. It is a vig based industry. They are not in the gambling business, they are in the facilitating business. The losers pay the winners and since nobody gets true odds the house takes their cut.

The job of the oddsmakers(whom are extremely intelligent) is to attract even betting on both sides. Once betting begins the odds/lines will adjust to keep the balance, but if the opening was too far off, the house has to put skin in the game which is exactly what they don't want.

To specifically answer your question, the win/loss odds have been thoroughly researched and open for significant action, the actual games are not going to garner much action so the opening lines are still far from hardened. Also not all bet types rely on the opening as heavily as proposition bets; the actual contests are less reliant on the opening and more reliant on the ability to adjust the spread.

Originally posted by SanFranDan21:
I love the 49ers and have been a fan since I was 5, and I am now 41. We added a solid #2 WR with Garcon, another WR from the Bills that I would say is a solid #2 as well. Tim Hightower was a good add for 1 year, but is on the tail end of his career. Hoyer is a good 'hold me over' type of QB who i do feel is a solid #2 QB, which is better then we had the last two years in that Hoyer is a traditional pocket qb. Adding Foster and Solomon in the draft was just awesome. Joe Williams at RB will be a steal in the draft. And we got a good CB too. With all that said, I have to agree with a previous veteran poster; we still are a ways away from competing for division titles let alone a Superbowl birth. We had the worst team talent-wise, and adding good, not great, but good veterans that are mostly at the tail end of their careers, was good for us. They know Kyle's system and can help teach it to the younger guys, which i think is why we got them above some other free agents out there. And having an 'A' Draft was a great way for Lynch and Kyle to begin the rebuilding process. But a good offseason along with a great draft is just the start and in no way alone puts us where we need to be.
There is a lot of talent in our division, and with where we were and where we still need to get to, I think we are looking at a 6 win season my friends. I am OK with that. To go from 2-14 to 6-10, while I am NOT settling here, it still is a solid beginning to a turn-around. With a 6-10 record, that should put us at about #15-18 in the 2018 Draft. If for some reason the deal with Kirk Cousins does not go thru, we should have the picks needed to put together a package to move up the draft board to select a good QB in 2018, with 2018 being much much deeper at the QB position. There are 3 QB's that are looked at right now in 2018 as potential franchise QB's, and that may increase depending on how that QB class performs this year in college.
Regardless, it has been a while since I have been this excited for the 49ers during an offseason! And wow, looking back at Trent, and the guys he picked in his drafts, along with the guys he passed on, holy crap guys! I know to a certain degree the draft is a crap-shoot, but still, we do get a rough idea of what the players can be like with solid scouting. And Trent really screwed up the last few drafts, I feel, since that horrible 2012 draft. He had a very few decent picks mixed in, but all-in-all, he did not do a good job drafting. He was afraid to draft a WR ever since Jenkins, and look where that got us at that position?! Anyway, he is gone, and if this past draft is any sort of clue at all about how Lynch will do as a GM, then I am pretty excited. If Lynch turns out to be a really good GM, and Kyle a real good couch, then I tell ya, Jed York would have turned around his own reputation pretty darn well. Looking at things like contracts though, I would not be too surprised to see us trade Vance McDonald (they already tried during the draft), as well as Brooks. Brooks is up there in age, and carries a heavy price tag.

Yeah, I'm really excited about this season too, and I agree, I'll be happy with a 6-10 season so long as the offense looks good. I'd love for the defense to look good also. But that might be too much to ask.

Originally posted by CRABTREE:

EZ 7 Wins Panthers , rams twice, Cardinals, bears,Jaguars, titans.

Why do you think we'll beat the Cards? Did Palmer retire?

4.5 wins seems spot on to me

Originally posted by NickSh49:

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
True, but looking at the weekly point spread, (Vegas), we are 1-15. Now a question for you all with betting experience. How do the oddsmakers in Vegas set the Wins at 4.5, yet on a weekly basis we come out 1-15 given the Vegas weekly point spreads. Someone want to explain that one?

Point spreads are set so Vegas can make the most money on a line. It is not set to represent the outcome of a game.

That means good/public teams (Packers, Steelers, Cowboys) are "overrated" by Vegas and their point spreads are inflated as a result. Because more people bet on those homer/good teams, Vegas makes the line higher in order to generate more income and protect themselves from losing money.

(SIDE NOTE - The Patriots are often so good that they "break" Vegas, meaning the sportsbooks often can't figure out how to set the line high enough in order to protect themselves from Bill & Brady covering consistently... it's an issue week-to-week)

So generally, in most cases, it favors the public to take underrated teams, especially if those teams are underdogs in a favorable spot.

The easiest way I can explain it... the public-Cardinals were -4.5 point favorites going into Buffalo in Week 3.

The dog-Bills were coming off a worse-than-it-looked loss to the Jets on a TNF game. Greg Roman had just been fired as offensive coordinator. The narrative that week was that the Bills were done, and thus, Vegas smelled blood and made the Cardinals road-favorites. That's the first sign of a trap game.

A highly-rated Cardinals team, that nearly made it to the Super Bowl, coming off a blowout-win over the Bucs in Arizona... easy public play.

A mediocre Bills team with a new OC, but with extra rest and playing at home, getting points... sexy sharp play.

The public was all over the Cardinals, despite them having to travel across the country and play at 10AM PST. The sharps were all over the Bills.

Bills stomped the Cards 33-18.

Not only did the Cards lose, they didn't keep it close. And even if they somehow did win the game, Vegas still had the -4.5 protection.

Lines are mostly about making money off of the dumb-Budweiser-drinking-public. It's based off of team-rankings Vegas adjusts every week and is not necessarily the predicted margin of victory or loss. It's simply how many points they're willing to spot in order to make the most money.

Solid explanation. I think the 49ers are easily an over in terms of 4.5 wins. Almost all media is talking them down about the fact that they have such a long way to go and still don't have enough talent...
...but here's what I think

49ers have a QB who seems to found his own last season in CHI. On top of that, the QB's best year was with Kyle. Now include the additions of Pierre Garcon, and other increased talent at FB, TE, and more speed at RB and WR and we have some real talent. Maybe not 6+ win talent on offense but I think our defense is highly underrated as well.

Defense has added way more speed and size. It does pend on some key players: Ward at FS, Bowman, Armstead, and Foster's health.

I'm saying we can get 8 wins.

Originally posted by Joecool:

Solid explanation. I think the 49ers are easily an over in terms of 4.5 wins. Almost all media is talking them down about the fact that they have such a long way to go and still don't have enough talent...
...but here's what I think

49ers have a QB who seems to found his own last season in CHI. On top of that, the QB's best year was with Kyle. Now include the additions of Pierre Garcon, and other increased talent at FB, TE, and more speed at RB and WR and we have some real talent. Maybe not 6+ win talent on offense but I think our defense is highly underrated as well.

Defense has added way more speed and size. It does pend on some key players: Ward at FS, Bowman, Armstead, and Foster's health.

I'm saying we can get 8 wins.

If we flash in preseason with the first teams the line would instantly go up.. sometimes the good bets are when the early lines come out. On a side note Cawks at 10.5 wins. I'll take the under for sure, they barely beat us towards the end of the season on a depleted team that had tanking on their minds with Kap at QB. They're definitely over rated, Max my boy Kellerman even said they're on a down swing and Max knows his ish. I pretty much never seem to disagree with him lol, just saying.

Wilson isn't that good.

5 wins and I well won't be happy but I won't be disappointed either.

Yes, like kissing your sister. You kind of sort of scored. Lol.

Originally posted by GoldenGateGlory:

Yes, like kissing your sister. You kind of sort of scored. Lol.

Interesting, Tell me more now!

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by NickSh49:

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
True, but looking at the weekly point spread, (Vegas), we are 1-15. Now a question for you all with betting experience. How do the oddsmakers in Vegas set the Wins at 4.5, yet on a weekly basis we come out 1-15 given the Vegas weekly point spreads. Someone want to explain that one?

Point spreads are set so Vegas can make the most money on a line. It is not set to represent the outcome of a game.

That means good/public teams (Packers, Steelers, Cowboys) are "overrated" by Vegas and their point spreads are inflated as a result. Because more people bet on those homer/good teams, Vegas makes the line higher in order to generate more income and protect themselves from losing money.

(SIDE NOTE - The Patriots are often so good that they "break" Vegas, meaning the sportsbooks often can't figure out how to set the line high enough in order to protect themselves from Bill & Brady covering consistently... it's an issue week-to-week)

So generally, in most cases, it favors the public to take underrated teams, especially if those teams are underdogs in a favorable spot.

The easiest way I can explain it... the public-Cardinals were -4.5 point favorites going into Buffalo in Week 3.

The dog-Bills were coming off a worse-than-it-looked loss to the Jets on a TNF game. Greg Roman had just been fired as offensive coordinator. The narrative that week was that the Bills were done, and thus, Vegas smelled blood and made the Cardinals road-favorites. That's the first sign of a trap game.

A highly-rated Cardinals team, that nearly made it to the Super Bowl, coming off a blowout-win over the Bucs in Arizona... easy public play.

A mediocre Bills team with a new OC, but with extra rest and playing at home, getting points... sexy sharp play.

The public was all over the Cardinals, despite them having to travel across the country and play at 10AM PST. The sharps were all over the Bills.

Bills stomped the Cards 33-18.

Not only did the Cards lose, they didn't keep it close. And even if they somehow did win the game, Vegas still had the -4.5 protection.

Lines are mostly about making money off of the dumb-Budweiser-drinking-public. It's based off of team-rankings Vegas adjusts every week and is not necessarily the predicted margin of victory or loss. It's simply how many points they're willing to spot in order to make the most money.

Solid explanation. I think the 49ers are easily an over in terms of 4.5 wins. Almost all media is talking them down about the fact that they have such a long way to go and still don't have enough talent...
...but here's what I think

49ers have a QB who seems to found his own last season in CHI. On top of that, the QB's best year was with Kyle. Now include the additions of Pierre Garcon, and other increased talent at FB, TE, and more speed at RB and WR and we have some real talent. Maybe not 6+ win talent on offense but I think our defense is highly underrated as well.

Defense has added way more speed and size. It does pend on some key players: Ward at FS, Bowman, Armstead, and Foster's health.

I'm saying we can get 8 wins.

The 49ers are a decent play based on a few reasons:

1. They could easily sweep the Rams and steal a game from the Cardinals or Seahawks. That's 3 wins there.

2. They will be bringing out a new offense AND defense, which opposing teams will not have film for... at least not 49ers specific film. They could surprise some opponents early.

3. Hoyer is a competitive QB, capable of keeping games close.

4. They play the Jaguars at home, which is the closest thing to a "gimme" on the schedule.

5. @ Bears on the road is also a close gimme.

So I say 6 wins at most, but you never know.