Injuries - 9-Year Analysis

Originally posted by stefano89:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

The 49ers have one of the most robust medical staffs in the NFL. @ConorOrr on the man who can seemingly read players' minds and help keep them healthyhttps://t.co/TzZExzi2Yf

— The MMQB (@theMMQB) January 28, 2022

most robust an most inept. time to clean house an get to work getting to the bottom of our real problem, replacing these clowns.

Let's just steal the Rams strength and conditioning staff or pay a ton for their protocols and so on.

Originally posted by elguapo:
Let's just steal the Rams strength and conditioning staff or pay a ton for their protocols and so on.

If they can throw deep outs consistently let's do it!

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by elguapo:
Let's just steal the Rams strength and conditioning staff or pay a ton for their protocols and so on.

If they can throw deep outs consistently let's do it!

I concur. I should of concurred

It'll be interesting to see where we end up in AGL this year. If it's where I expect, we'll now have been the only team to be that low in AGL to make a Superbowl (2019) and an NFCCG (2021).

That's a sign of a very deep and resilient roster.

Originally posted by NCommand:
It'll be interesting to see where we end up in AGL this year. If it's where I expect, we'll now have been the only team to be that low in AGL to make a Superbowl (2019) and an NFCCG (2021).

That's a sign of a very deep and resilient roster.

Too bad deductive reasoning's not pointing you towards the idea that possibly, maybe, you're overplaying this subject a just little.

Tracking is good. Obsession is bad.

Originally posted by NCommand:
Updated annually in April once released.

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For 7 years, Football Outsiders has been tracking injuries via their Adjusted Games Lost (AGL) formula that looks deeper into the quantity and quality of injuries. Quite simply, there is an AGL Threshold (between 65.9 - 76.1), that if your team is under that threshold, the chance of getting to the playoffs is slim to none. Conversely, if your team is above the threshold, your chance of making the playoffs goes up dramatically.

--- For an updated chart, PM NCommand ---

https://twitter.com/NCommand55/status/1378415757571264512

But by how much? The teams under this threshold average just 6.87 wins and the teams over it, average 9.27 wins. We all know 9 wins gives you a legit chance of making the playoffs. In short, there seems to be a direct correlation between team AGL injuries and the number of wins and consequently, the probability of making the playoff.

What does that mean for us? The San Francisco 49ers over the past 7 years have ranked as the 31st most injured team, only behind, Washington, as the most injured team in the NFL.

Kyle Shanahan spoke of the importance of staying healthy:

"I feel confident with our guys," Shanahan said. "We got some guys who compete. Collectively, we have a smart group of people who can all play together. And I think we'll be able to surprise some people. But the biggest thing that always comes into (play) is injuries."

In every analysis, there are outliers, naturally...teams that had a high AGL (i.e. lots of quality injuries) one year but still made the playoffs, but in ALL of these cases, they had a veteran or Franchise QB such as Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins, Drew Brees, Alex Smith, Andrew Luck, Nick Foles, Philip Rivers, etc. to pull them through that. You can now add Jimmy Garoppolo to that list based on 2019. But NONE of them had enough steam to win a Superbowl.

What was also interesting is that many teams that were hit hard one year (i.e. Chicago 2017-2018 - Playoffs), rebounded the next year (extreme/outlier stats). Not us...Washington and San Francisco have been consistently hammered every year. Conversely, our rivals in the NFCW in Los Angeles and Seattle, remain the two healthiest teams over the same span.

So the next time a fan says, "Every team deals with injuries" you can point to the fact that while all teams do deal with injuries, not all teams deal with the same level of quantity and quality of injuries and this fact has a direct correlation to wins and losses and your team's chances of making the playoffs.

So here's to a healthy 2021!

We're loooooooooooooooooooooooong overdue.

Football Outsiders - Adjusted Games Lost

PS: This correlation appears to be as strong as the, 'turnovers-to-wins/losses correlation' metric.

For additional, up to the minute I.R. information, follow this link: Spotrac Injury Tracker [Courtesy of CatchMaster80]

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Historical AGL Ranks: Lower = Healthiest
2008 - 6th
2009 - 23rd
2010 - 4th
2011 - 8th
2012 - 1st
2013 - 23rd
2014 - See Above through Current

The OP. For those who got lost in the point of this thread. Or who never knew to begin with. Or never bothered to review. LOL

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by NCommand:
Updated annually in April once released.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For 7 years, Football Outsiders has been tracking injuries via their Adjusted Games Lost (AGL) formula that looks deeper into the quantity and quality of injuries. Quite simply, there is an AGL Threshold (between 65.9 - 76.1), that if your team is under that threshold, the chance of getting to the playoffs is slim to none. Conversely, if your team is above the threshold, your chance of making the playoffs goes up dramatically.

--- For an updated chart, PM NCommand ---

https://twitter.com/NCommand55/status/1378415757571264512

But by how much? The teams under this threshold average just 6.87 wins and the teams over it, average 9.27 wins. We all know 9 wins gives you a legit chance of making the playoffs. In short, there seems to be a direct correlation between team AGL injuries and the number of wins and consequently, the probability of making the playoff.

What does that mean for us? The San Francisco 49ers over the past 7 years have ranked as the 31st most injured team, only behind, Washington, as the most injured team in the NFL.

Kyle Shanahan spoke of the importance of staying healthy:

"I feel confident with our guys," Shanahan said. "We got some guys who compete. Collectively, we have a smart group of people who can all play together. And I think we'll be able to surprise some people. But the biggest thing that always comes into (play) is injuries."

In every analysis, there are outliers, naturally...teams that had a high AGL (i.e. lots of quality injuries) one year but still made the playoffs, but in ALL of these cases, they had a veteran or Franchise QB such as Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins, Drew Brees, Alex Smith, Andrew Luck, Nick Foles, Philip Rivers, etc. to pull them through that. You can now add Jimmy Garoppolo to that list based on 2019. But NONE of them had enough steam to win a Superbowl.

What was also interesting is that many teams that were hit hard one year (i.e. Chicago 2017-2018 - Playoffs), rebounded the next year (extreme/outlier stats). Not us...Washington and San Francisco have been consistently hammered every year. Conversely, our rivals in the NFCW in Los Angeles and Seattle, remain the two healthiest teams over the same span.

So the next time a fan says, "Every team deals with injuries" you can point to the fact that while all teams do deal with injuries, not all teams deal with the same level of quantity and quality of injuries and this fact has a direct correlation to wins and losses and your team's chances of making the playoffs.

So here's to a healthy 2021!

We're loooooooooooooooooooooooong overdue.

Football Outsiders - Adjusted Games Lost

PS: This correlation appears to be as strong as the, 'turnovers-to-wins/losses correlation' metric.

For additional, up to the minute I.R. information, follow this link: Spotrac Injury Tracker [Courtesy of CatchMaster80]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Historical AGL Ranks: Lower = Healthiest
2008 - 6th
2009 - 23rd
2010 - 4th
2011 - 8th
2012 - 1st
2013 - 23rd
2014 - See Above through Current

The OP. For those who got lost in the point of this thread. Or who never knew to begin with. Or never bothered to review. LOL

Will everyone still under contract and on IR be healthy for next season camp?

Any stand out as looking long term or likely recurrence?

Have the draft guys spotted any injury prone players to avoid?

Originally posted by KeepRabbitsOut:
Will everyone still under contract and on IR be healthy for next season camp?

Any stand out as looking long term or likely recurrence?

Have the draft guys spotted any injury prone players to avoid?

Here's the grand list. Most made it back to Active. The bold are the ones of your interest.

T/G Justin Skule
SS Tarvarius Moore
WR/PR Richie James
RB Raheem Mostert
CB Jason Verrett
3T Javon Kinlaw
RT Mike McGlinchey
DT Darrion Daniels
WR Devin Funchess
FS Doug Middleton
ER Dee Ford
RB Trenton Cannon - Active
SWR Mohamed Sanu - Active
SS Tavon Wilson - Active
CB Emmanuel Moseley - Active
RB Trey Sermon - Active
WILL Dre Greenlaw - Active
SS Jaquiski Tartt - Active
TE George Kittle - Active
RB Jeff Wilson Jr. - Active
K Robbie Gould - Active
3T Kevin Givens - Active
RB JaMycal Hasty - Active
3T Maurice Hurst Jr. - Active
FS Kai Nacua - Released - Resigned - Active
SS Tony Jefferson - Injury Settlement - Resigned - Active
ZWR/F Jalen Hurd - Released
LT Shon Coleman - Injury Settlement
MIKE Mychal Kendricks - Injury Settlement
ZWR Austin Watkins - Injury Settlement
CB Tim Harris Jr. - Browns
CB Davontae Harris - Chargers
ER Jordan Willis - Suspended - Active

2021 (32) --- 2020 (45) --- 2019 (16) --- 2018 (18) --- 2017 (26) --- 2016 (22) --- 2015 (17) --- 2014 (21)

Originally posted by NCommand:
Here's the grand list. Most made it back to Active. The bold are the ones of your interest.

T/G Justin Skule
SS Tarvarius Moore
WR/PR Richie James
RB Raheem Mostert
CB Jason Verrett
3T Javon Kinlaw
RT Mike McGlinchey
DT Darrion Daniels
WR Devin Funchess
FS Doug Middleton
ER Dee Ford
RB Trenton Cannon - Active
SWR Mohamed Sanu - Active
SS Tavon Wilson - Active
CB Emmanuel Moseley - Active
RB Trey Sermon - Active
WILL Dre Greenlaw - Active
SS Jaquiski Tartt - Active
TE George Kittle - Active
RB Jeff Wilson Jr. - Active
K Robbie Gould - Active
3T Kevin Givens - Active
RB JaMycal Hasty - Active
3T Maurice Hurst Jr. - Active
FS Kai Nacua - Released - Resigned - Active
SS Tony Jefferson - Injury Settlement - Resigned - Active
ZWR/F Jalen Hurd - Released
LT Shon Coleman - Injury Settlement
MIKE Mychal Kendricks - Injury Settlement
ZWR Austin Watkins - Injury Settlement
CB Tim Harris Jr. - Browns
CB Davontae Harris - Chargers
ER Jordan Willis - Suspended - Active

2021 (32) --- 2020 (45) --- 2019 (16) --- 2018 (18) --- 2017 (26) --- 2016 (22) --- 2015 (17) --- 2014 (21)

Thank you.

Originally posted by KeepRabbitsOut:

Originally posted by NCommand:
Here's the grand list. Most made it back to Active. The bold are the ones of your interest.

T/G Justin Skule
SS Tarvarius Moore
WR/PR Richie James
RB Raheem Mostert
CB Jason Verrett
3T Javon Kinlaw
RT Mike McGlinchey
DT Darrion Daniels
WR Devin Funchess
FS Doug Middleton
ER Dee Ford
RB Trenton Cannon - Active
SWR Mohamed Sanu - Active
SS Tavon Wilson - Active
CB Emmanuel Moseley - Active
RB Trey Sermon - Active
WILL Dre Greenlaw - Active
SS Jaquiski Tartt - Active
TE George Kittle - Active
RB Jeff Wilson Jr. - Active
K Robbie Gould - Active
3T Kevin Givens - Active
RB JaMycal Hasty - Active
3T Maurice Hurst Jr. - Active
FS Kai Nacua - Released - Resigned - Active
SS Tony Jefferson - Injury Settlement - Resigned - Active
ZWR/F Jalen Hurd - Released
LT Shon Coleman - Injury Settlement
MIKE Mychal Kendricks - Injury Settlement
ZWR Austin Watkins - Injury Settlement
CB Tim Harris Jr. - Browns
CB Davontae Harris - Chargers
ER Jordan Willis - Suspended - Active

2021 (32) --- 2020 (45) --- 2019 (16) --- 2018 (18) --- 2017 (26) --- 2016 (22) --- 2015 (17) --- 2014 (21)

Thank you.

Any time!

These would be the most important, IMHO:
SS Tarvarius Moore
RB Raheem Mostert
CB Jason Verrett
3T Javon Kinlaw
RT Mike McGlinchey
DT Darrion Daniels

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by KeepRabbitsOut:

Originally posted by NCommand:
Here's the grand list. Most made it back to Active. The bold are the ones of your interest.

T/G Justin Skule
SS Tarvarius Moore
WR/PR Richie James
RB Raheem Mostert
CB Jason Verrett
3T Javon Kinlaw
RT Mike McGlinchey
DT Darrion Daniels
WR Devin Funchess
FS Doug Middleton
ER Dee Ford
RB Trenton Cannon - Active
SWR Mohamed Sanu - Active
SS Tavon Wilson - Active
CB Emmanuel Moseley - Active
RB Trey Sermon - Active
WILL Dre Greenlaw - Active
SS Jaquiski Tartt - Active
TE George Kittle - Active
RB Jeff Wilson Jr. - Active
K Robbie Gould - Active
3T Kevin Givens - Active
RB JaMycal Hasty - Active
3T Maurice Hurst Jr. - Active
FS Kai Nacua - Released - Resigned - Active
SS Tony Jefferson - Injury Settlement - Resigned - Active
ZWR/F Jalen Hurd - Released
LT Shon Coleman - Injury Settlement
MIKE Mychal Kendricks - Injury Settlement
ZWR Austin Watkins - Injury Settlement
CB Tim Harris Jr. - Browns
CB Davontae Harris - Chargers
ER Jordan Willis - Suspended - Active

2021 (32) --- 2020 (45) --- 2019 (16) --- 2018 (18) --- 2017 (26) --- 2016 (22) --- 2015 (17) --- 2014 (21)

Thank you.

Any time!

These would be the most important, IMHO:
SS Tarvarius Moore
RB Raheem Mostert
CB Jason Verrett
3T Javon Kinlaw
RT Mike McGlinchey
DT Darrion Daniels

It will be interesting how they will draft in 2022, with only DB and OLine as true weaknesses of this team. In 2021, it felt like they added more depth than talent. Two RB's, three DB's, a QB and two OLine - these traditionally were areas that were hit hard by injuries in years past. It just so happens that Mitchell was a day three surprise Gem and Ambry and Huf were surprise players that are probably starter level players if they can continue to develop.

I can see them going the same way again, adding two Oline, two Rb's, two Db's, and this time adding a DLineman instead of a QB. I can see them going for a guy like Tyrod Taylor, or his clone in free agency to bolster the QB depth. But I think they will (or should) draft for possible injuries in 2022. Lucky they drafted mitchell when Mostert and Wilson went down. They had some OLine depth when McGlinchy went down. They had promising DB rookies when Vertett went down, and for the most part Jimmy stayed healthy at QB.

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by KeepRabbitsOut:

Originally posted by NCommand:
Here's the grand list. Most made it back to Active. The bold are the ones of your interest.

T/G Justin Skule
SS Tarvarius Moore
WR/PR Richie James
RB Raheem Mostert
CB Jason Verrett
3T Javon Kinlaw
RT Mike McGlinchey
DT Darrion Daniels
WR Devin Funchess
FS Doug Middleton
ER Dee Ford
RB Trenton Cannon - Active
SWR Mohamed Sanu - Active
SS Tavon Wilson - Active
CB Emmanuel Moseley - Active
RB Trey Sermon - Active
WILL Dre Greenlaw - Active
SS Jaquiski Tartt - Active
TE George Kittle - Active
RB Jeff Wilson Jr. - Active
K Robbie Gould - Active
3T Kevin Givens - Active
RB JaMycal Hasty - Active
3T Maurice Hurst Jr. - Active
FS Kai Nacua - Released - Resigned - Active
SS Tony Jefferson - Injury Settlement - Resigned - Active
ZWR/F Jalen Hurd - Released
LT Shon Coleman - Injury Settlement
MIKE Mychal Kendricks - Injury Settlement
ZWR Austin Watkins - Injury Settlement
CB Tim Harris Jr. - Browns
CB Davontae Harris - Chargers
ER Jordan Willis - Suspended - Active

2021 (32) --- 2020 (45) --- 2019 (16) --- 2018 (18) --- 2017 (26) --- 2016 (22) --- 2015 (17) --- 2014 (21)

Thank you.

Any time!

These would be the most important, IMHO:
SS Tarvarius Moore
RB Raheem Mostert
CB Jason Verrett
3T Javon Kinlaw
RT Mike McGlinchey
DT Darrion Daniels

It will be interesting how they will draft in 2022, with only DB and OLine as true weaknesses of this team. In 2021, it felt like they added more depth than talent. Two RB's, three DB's, a QB and two OLine - these traditionally were areas that were hit hard by injuries in years past. It just so happens that Mitchell was a day three surprise Gem and Ambry and Huf were surprise players that are probably starter level players if they can continue to develop.

I can see them going the same way again, adding two Oline, two Rb's, two Db's, and this time adding a DLineman instead of a QB. I can see them going for a guy like Tyrod Taylor, or his clone in free agency to bolster the QB depth. But I think they will (or should) draft for possible injuries in 2022. Lucky they drafted mitchell when Mostert and Wilson went down. They had some OLine depth when McGlinchy went down. They had promising DB rookies when Vertett went down, and for the most part Jimmy stayed healthy at QB.

We've got plenty of depth now. I'd like to see them add a few more top end difference makers how at difference making positions.

Originally posted by NCommand:
We've got plenty of depth now. I'd like to see them add a few more top end difference makers how at difference making positions.

Do you mean medical staff or strength and conditioning?

Originally posted by NCommand:
Any time!

These would be the most important, IMHO:
SS Tarvarius Moore
RB Raheem Mostert
CB Jason Verrett
3T Javon Kinlaw
RT Mike McGlinchey
DT Darrion Daniels

Verrett was the one that hurt the most. We gave up over 200 yards to Kupp/OBJ, and a boat load of third down conversions in the NFCCG. We still would've had a hard time with those two, but in a close 3 point loss…. having our starting CB could've made a huge difference.

Mostert hurt a lot in the beginning of the season, but Elijah Mitchell's emergence and Deebo playing at RB worked out very well.