Injuries - 9-Year Analysis

A nine year span is not a coincidence - its a trend. Average of 26.5th in the league.

Originally posted by Deebo:
A nine year span is not a coincidence - its a trend. Average of 26.5th in the league.

Good point. I probably s/h started with 2013. Technically, it is 9 straight years.

Originally posted by Deebo:
A nine year span is not a coincidence - its a trend. Average of 26.5th in the league.

Still nothing to see here (at least,....until you or anyone else give us something). Having a possible Superbowl team 2 out of 3 years with a mediocre QB is I'd say the thing that's not a coincidence.

Blindly relating injury rates to the ability of the people in the buildings to do their jobs is....shall we say...a little uneducated on how the dots are to be connected?

This causation/blame fallacy is a common one,...and it's how the salesman continues to draw you in on this side-topic instead of us simply updating ourselves on the teams' latest injury news and continuing on:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Deebo:
A nine year span is not a coincidence - its a trend. Average of 26.5th in the league.

Good point. I probably s/h started with 2013. Technically, it is 9 straight years.

I think the first four years of that 9 years - probably bad drafting and coaching plus the money-ball issue. The last 5 years, have been bad (or inexperienced) drafting and possibly the money-ball issue. Last year, they really hit on the draft to deal with injuries and I think, they tweaked their money-ball approach to take into account injuries. The result was two OLine picks and two RB picks to deal with McGlincy being out and for Mostert/Wilson being out. I hope they can do that again this year - and I think key to that is being able to get more draft picks possibly by trading down, or by successfully trading Jimmy for more draft picks. Injuries are going to happen. I hope they plan for it in their 2022 draft strategy.

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Deebo:
A nine year span is not a coincidence - its a trend. Average of 26.5th in the league.

Good point. I probably s/h started with 2013. Technically, it is 9 straight years.

I think the first four years of that 9 years - probably bad drafting and coaching plus the money-ball issue. The last 5 years, have been bad (or inexperienced) drafting and possibly the money-ball issue. Last year, they really hit on the draft to deal with injuries and I think, they tweaked their money-ball approach to take into account injuries. The result was two OLine picks and two RB picks to deal with McGlincy being out and for Mostert/Wilson being out. I hope they can do that again this year - and I think key to that is being able to get more draft picks possibly by trading down, or by successfully trading Jimmy for more draft picks. Injuries are going to happen. I hope they plan for it in their 2022 draft strategy.

Yeah, I know you liked that 3-prong approach as well. That's my favorite approach when the option is there.

Originally posted by NCommand:


Oh God. Thanks for that laugh this morning! You can't have an objective debate with someone like that...randomly all over the place and completely misses the point. He missed this whole section, clearly:

For 8 years, Football Outsiders has been tracking injuries via their Adjusted Games Lost (AGL) formula that looks deeper into the quantity and quality of injuries. Quite simply, there is an AGL Threshold (between 65.9 - 82.3), that if your team is under that threshold, the chance of getting to the playoffs is slim to none. Conversely, if your team is above the threshold, your chance of making the playoffs goes up dramatically.

But by how much? Over the last 8 years, the teams under this threshold average just 6.77 wins and the teams over it, average 9.37 wins. We all know 9 wins gives you a legit chance of making the playoffs even with a 17-game schedule. In short, there seems to be a direct correlation between team AGL (health) and the number of wins and consequently, the probability of making the playoff.

San Francisco REMAINS one of the very few outlier teams who fell (way) below the 'AGL Threshold = Between: 65.9 - 82.3 (74.1)' and STLL made the playoffs and are still the only team to make the Superbowl as well since AGL started being captured in 2008.

Sounds like some statistics folks may be clashing with contract negotiator's thinking?

Could it be that Paraag has some minions in the zone?

Originally posted by KeepRabbitsOut:
Sounds like some statistics folks may be clashing with contract negotiator's thinking?

Could it be that Paraag has some minions in the zone?

Maybe!

wait is there really someone still trying to say we are not more injured than the rest of the league?

LMAO

Originally posted by stefano89:
wait is there really someone still trying to say we are not more injured than the rest of the league?

LMAO

Nobody worth reading or responding too.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by stefano89:
wait is there really someone still trying to say we are not more injured than the rest of the league?

LMAO

Nobody worth reading or responding too.

I wholeheartedly concur. Denial and ignorance at its best

Originally posted by stefano89:
wait is there really someone still trying to say we are not more injured than the rest of the league?

LMAO

Lol,...not only does the rest of the league include all 31 teams,...but this is not at all what was being addressed anyway.

So for the logically impaired....the image has been edited for clarity.



I have yet to see anyone tie anything credible to this topic/non-topic,...but yet, here we are.

Ahh,...whatever. With the effort someone seems to be putting into conspiracy theories in driving this thread, I will oblige and say we've GOT to figure this injury thing out if we ever want to have a chance to compete for a title again!

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Deebo:
A nine year span is not a coincidence - its a trend. Average of 26.5th in the league.

Good point. I probably s/h started with 2013. Technically, it is 9 straight years.

I think the first four years of that 9 years - probably bad drafting and coaching plus the money-ball issue. The last 5 years, have been bad (or inexperienced) drafting and possibly the money-ball issue. Last year, they really hit on the draft to deal with injuries and I think, they tweaked their money-ball approach to take into account injuries. The result was two OLine picks and two RB picks to deal with McGlincy being out and for Mostert/Wilson being out. I hope they can do that again this year - and I think key to that is being able to get more draft picks possibly by trading down, or by successfully trading Jimmy for more draft picks. Injuries are going to happen. I hope they plan for it in their 2022 draft strategy.

Yeah, I know you liked that 3-prong approach as well. That's my favorite approach when the option is there.

Well, It's my favorite, and it's common sense, and you pointed it out originally. I think the option is always there - specially with the ability of the front office to find/develop day three gems and undrafted gems. One example of being able to employ the 3 prong approach is to trade (for example) Brieda for a 5th to get a guy like Trent. If you think about injuries as another way to develop depth - for example, Mostert/Wilson gets hurt, and Mitchell is put in play and is successful, now you can overcome some injuries and now you have depth (Wilson and Mitchell).

I think key to our current winning streak has been that development of the winning culture. The 49er culture expects undrafted and day three picks to be as successful as number one picks (Jauan, Mitchell for example). The other thing I want the 49ers to develop - from a culture standpoint - is that workout-warrior mentality. I'd love to have a 49er culture that says if you come into camp fat and out of shape, you will be shamed (or something like that) and I'd love the front office to monetarily reward (with Moneyball) the kind of workout-warrior attitude *as well as* gold helmet characteristics you want. I think in the past, the Dynasty years, they had Roger Craig and Jerry Rice (among others) that led the team in being in shape. I think that kind of workout warrior mentality that they had -- had led the past 49ers to be less injured than most teams during their dynasty run. I think they need to revisit that again.

Originally posted by KeepRabbitsOut:

Originally posted by NCommand:


Oh God. Thanks for that laugh this morning! You can't have an objective debate with someone like that...randomly all over the place and completely misses the point. He missed this whole section, clearly:

For 8 years, Football Outsiders has been tracking injuries via their Adjusted Games Lost (AGL) formula that looks deeper into the quantity and quality of injuries. Quite simply, there is an AGL Threshold (between 65.9 - 82.3), that if your team is under that threshold, the chance of getting to the playoffs is slim to none. Conversely, if your team is above the threshold, your chance of making the playoffs goes up dramatically.

But by how much? Over the last 8 years, the teams under this threshold average just 6.77 wins and the teams over it, average 9.37 wins. We all know 9 wins gives you a legit chance of making the playoffs even with a 17-game schedule. In short, there seems to be a direct correlation between team AGL (health) and the number of wins and consequently, the probability of making the playoff.

San Francisco REMAINS one of the very few outlier teams who fell (way) below the 'AGL Threshold = Between: 65.9 - 82.3 (74.1)' and STLL made the playoffs and are still the only team to make the Superbowl as well since AGL started being captured in 2008.

Sounds like some statistics folks may be clashing with contract negotiator's thinking?

Could it be that Paraag has some minions in the zone?

Personally I think Paarag's genius in drafting contracts should include some sort of contract design to encourage players being in shape. How that would look like, I wouldn't know, but one thing Paarag can do is talk to the medical guys and find out what kind of stuff prevents injuries and write those medical stuff things into the money ball contracts. This is where the medical staff can really help Paarag, by being on top of the most recent sports cutting edge science.

We're simply in an age now where people would rather go with the conspiracy theory instead of the utter truth. A good week after I said what I said below,...who's the new signing and what's the scoop on him, per 49ersWZ??



An injury plagued career and a guy that has never gone wire-to-wire.

As I suggested,...isin't this exact proof of the clear stategy we have towards injury-prone players? I said this before the signing a few pages back (as well as before other signings a year or so ago):

Originally posted by random49er:
2) Jason Verrett has injury problems because of our staff? Uhhh, no. He has injury problems because he's Jason Verrett. We roll the dice on oft-injured players. The propaganda here points to something in the muscle milk in our building that's causing this,...but we have a front office that roles the dice when it comes to cheaper, previously-injured players, and thus far it has paid off for us. It's not going to work 100% of the time, but it saves on the cap, and it has worked for us. Cant knock the hustle.

Verrett, that Mostert gamebreaker guy, the list goes on and on....whatever,...The strategy is clear: For the 49ers staff, Talent > Less Injuries. You win some, you lose some,...but when u win, you end up with a talent-laden team and a bunch of guys that are woefully underpaid until their next contract. Are you going to have injuries? Most certainly, but so will everyone else.

It's like the Jimmy G stuff from a couple years ago.

Just kinda perplexes me that many of you would rather go with the conspiracy theory and "your gut" than the truth that is right there in front of you with evidence provided over and over again. Amazing.

Originally posted by random49er:
We're simply in an age now where people would rather go with the conspiracy theory instead of the utter truth. A good week after I said what I said below,...who's the new signing and what's the scoop on him, per 49ersWZ??



An injury plagued career and a guy that has never gone wire-to-wire.

As I suggested,...isin't this exact proof of the clear stategy we have towards injury-prone players? I said this before the signing a few pages back (as well as before other signings a year or so ago):

Originally posted by random49er:
2) Jason Verrett has injury problems because of our staff? Uhhh, no. He has injury problems because he's Jason Verrett. We roll the dice on oft-injured players. The propaganda here points to something in the muscle milk in our building that's causing this,...but we have a front office that roles the dice when it comes to cheaper, previously-injured players, and thus far it has paid off for us. It's not going to work 100% of the time, but it saves on the cap, and it has worked for us. Cant knock the hustle.

Verrett, that Mostert gamebreaker guy, the list goes on and on....whatever,...The strategy is clear: For the 49ers staff, Talent > Less Injuries. You win some, you lose some,...but when u win, you end up with a talent-laden team and a bunch of guys that are woefully underpaid until their next contract. Are you going to have injuries? Most certainly, but so will everyone else.

It's like the Jimmy G stuff from a couple years ago.

Just kinda perplexes me that many of you would rather go with the conspiracy theory and "your gut" than the truth that is right there in front of you with evidence provided over and over again. Amazing.

the truth is yes our team does like to acquire injury prone players. that is a huge part of the problem. unfortunately that is only one part of a massive problem that is much bigger an worse than that one thing.