Originally posted by tankle104:
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Originally posted by NinerBuff:
I get the feeling that Bosa doesn't GAF, so it comes down to when the FO will cave.
But he does, he loves the game, the team, football, he loves all that stuff. Can't imagine this dude, just watching week 1 football from the couch. No way on earth.
I wonder what the issues are. I mean this has been known for 2 years. Lol nothing about this contract and what he would demand is a surprise. Hell his brother signed his extension in 2020 and said at the time that his brother would set the market when his time comes.
i just don't know what they could be fighting about, we really don't have any leverage.
I am hoping this was just an understood delay that is a soft impasse, something having to do with evaluating back up talent or something... not an actual hard impasse between two sides. Maybe they punted on hard talks knowing they didn't even want to risk him in TC and preseason...and the talks got started in earnest later then we think.
As far as leverage goes, from my limited understanding.... it is only really nuclear leverage..... I think they have him for what 2? more years then at least 3 more years of Franchise tag.... The last 4 years of that 5 year total is likely going to be close to 90 million dollars by that point. I am sure by that point Bosa will be pissed off and be skipping 8 games a year to turn in the bare minimum. I believe once he hits his 8 games, he can sit out playoff games as well. I have no idea how hold out fines work against the salary cap. So odds of keeping him past those 5 years are zero probably.
Net result 49ers loose 2 years of Bosa 5+1 vs 1+3 and can forget keeping him for the next decade but they likely save 60-80 million.
Sucks for the 49ers, but it does share the risk with Bosa... the 49ers would have to pay Bosa regardless of injury, but a performance altering injury takes away from Bosa's future earning potential. Sitting out likely hurts the pool of future teams as well. That risk is on him, plus if he became a shell of his formal self, the 49ers could just walk away.
Bosa has to keep his ELITE earning potential to make up 5 years of 50% pay.
The rumor mill right now has him somewhere around $167m with 100m guaranteed. Franchise tag is just short of 20m-22m-24.2m those 3 years unless it changes (it will likely change) So lets say 5th year plus 3y franchise is 90m-ish. Dude lost 80m, he sits out 8 games a year he is likely at $45-$50m Dude just lost 110-120m.
He will be 30ish by the end of that and be right in line for a great contract if he kept wowing people, but what are the odds of that playing half the games a year? I don't think he can make up $100 million.
I am no salary expert, or Franchise Tag expert...but googling it that is my take on it....
We all knew going in what the Bosa family was like.....hold out was always a legitimate fear.
I dunno its all crazy at this point...
[ Edited by Dshearn on Aug 28, 2023 at 3:19 PM ]