Mitch Wishnowsky - Punter (Utah) is a 49er

Originally posted by KeepRabbitsOut:

Andy Lee

The guy that we dumped for pinion because we didn't want to pay an extra million to the best punter in the league. Championship-level decision right there by the front office

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:

Originally posted by KeepRabbitsOut:
Andy Lee

The guy that we dumped for pinion because we didn't want to pay an extra million to the best punter in the league. Championship-level decision right there by the front office

I know your being snarky a bit here, but it gives rise to an interesting question. Do you spend a middle round pick on a punter every four years or so, or do you invest money in the position by adding a couple mill of cap at the spot? I see value in either philosophy. Clearly the front office thinks that drafting a quality prospect a little higher than average once the current guy is due for a deal is the way to go and there is a part of me that gets that. After all cap space can be vastly more important than a middle round pick in certain situations and it is a position that that you don't want a ton of sunk cost at. On the other hand, what if that fourth became somebody that could change the complexion of the team? Not super likely, but it does happen. It is an interesting debate, I would be curious what the split is amongst the forum.

If this guy turns out to be an all pro punter then the math and analytics would probably back the decision. If he ends us leading the league in punts blocked or is more on the average side then it will go down as a bad decision. I would feel better about this guy if he was as effective in college kicking traditional. His style has some boom or bust given how athletic special teamers are in the nfl. He does have the potential to be something the league has never seen though given his own athleticism and because his technique lends itself to being really effective on fake punts. Going to be exciting to watch how this one works out for us.

Originally posted by Goatie:
The good thing is when you get a punter in the draft you have a good history to gauge him on his distance, hang time and accuracy. You know what you are going to get. They can start straight away and less likely to be a dud. Sure they still have stuff to learn but the transition will not be as big a step as for an offensive or defensive draftee.

The later have a steep learning curve to step up to the big league as well as playing amongst bigger men.

The later might show potential but not cut in the NFL as they fail to up skill quickly enough, or at all, or they get injured due to more physical contact or training too hard when they are trying to make the grade. How many blow ups have there been because of this?

I would suggest there is more chance of Bosa being a dud due to injury or getting beaten up playing against big experienced Oline guards and blockers then there is of Wishnowsky getting injured or lacking the skill in the big league. We know he can kick at an elite level and he is a ten year investment. Long term.

The odds are Bosa will be great but will he still be here in 10 years or even after 3 years?

You said everything I feel about this pick. He may have been taken a round early but based on what the Pats did maybe not. All the guys that were available at that slot are no sure things. If he can consistently make the other team start inside their own 20 then he's worth the pick.

Originally posted by Chief:
Wait, so who is Gay?

this, i'm confused now.

player gets picked by a team and team is ridiculed for reaching for a pick. player becomes all pro at his position and plays for 12 years breaking numerous team records at his position. is player still considered a reach?

Originally posted by Debryune:

Originally posted by Chief:
Wait, so who is Gay?

this, i'm confused now.

His teammate is Gay.

Originally posted by Waterbear:

Originally posted by Debryune:

Originally posted by Chief:

Wait, so who is Gay?

this, i'm confused now.

His teammate is Gay.

To elaborate more, his teammate is Matt Gay who is a kicker.

I think this guy already has more posts than the Staley thread lol

Dude better make first team all pro considering where he was picked....

Originally posted by NinerGM:
Best summary on how I feel about the Wish selection. The odds of a 4th OL, CB, S or even TE becoming something special with the ability with greater impact (snap count) for our team IMHO is greater than the ability of the "best punter in the draft" to impact a team with so many needs in other areas. If I'm going to take a risk in an area of talent, why not take that risk in an area of need even if you feel initially that player "may not beat out" who you have there currently? I think it's pretty presumptuous to say given all the draft-eligible players, not one OL, CB, S or even TE available in the 4th has and absolute zero chance of challenging a starter or depth - especially on the OL. Especially. And it happens every year, some team wins that bet by turning a 4th rounder into a good/great player. More art than science I understand.

I disagree that the odds are better for one of the position players to have an impact than a punter. If they made the team and if they got significant playing time then that would be true. The punter is probably 99% sure of making the team and being the guy. Look at the stats on the chance of scoring vs. starting field position. It increases about 10% for every 10 yards. That's why it's important to keep the other team pinned back. When the punter keeps the other team pinned deep it gives the defense a better chance of stopping them, a better chance of getting the ball back in good field position and a better chance of forcing a turnover. This was a problem last year for us. We were constantly forced to try and drive the length of the field while our opponents too often got the ball near midfield. Unless this guy is a bust he solves one more problem for this team.

Originally posted by NinerGM:

Originally posted by thl408:

Yeah the guy can motor. I hope Hightower puts in a fake punt play. Just put it on film once and other teams will have to take time preparing for it. Might as well take advantage of his athleticism.

I don't have an issue with selecting a punter in the middle 4th round. Andy Lee flipping the field was an impactful part of the defense so I get the importance of a good punter. We just need Wishy to be a good punter and not just 'solid'. You can get solid punting in round 7 or UDFA. Punters drafted mid 4th have to be good, very good. I feel like punters should be bust proof. Catch ball, kick ball - exact same thing as it was in college.

Best summary on how I feel about the Wish selection. The odds of a 4th OL, CB, S or even TE becoming something special with the ability with greater impact (snap count) for our team IMHO is greater than the ability of the "best punter in the draft" to impact a team with so many needs in other areas. If I'm going to take a risk in an area of talent, why not take that risk in an area of need even if you feel initially that player "may not beat out" who you have there currently? I think it's pretty presumptuous to say given all the draft-eligible players, not one OL, CB, S or even TE available in the 4th has and absolute zero chance of challenging a starter or depth - especially on the OL. Especially. And it happens every year, some team wins that bet by turning a 4th rounder into a good/great player. More art than science I understand.

I mostly come here for the LOL's now but you bring up a good topic.

Does the best P in the draft at #110 (immediate starter) have more value than a PK (starter), WILL (insurance), FS (challenger/starter), C/G/T (challenger/starter/insurance), TE2 (starter), XWR (dynamic returner) or S/CB (starter)?

Pick #110:
PK (starter) - Puts actual points on the board and often times IS the difference in a game. And we're in a major contract dispute.
WILL (insurance) - Kwon is coming off late season ACL surgery. We have Elijah Lee. Finding a short-term starter, depth and ST help here is very important.
FS (challenger/starter) - Let's be real. A quality UDFA could genuinely challenge Ward and Colbert for a starting job if Woods is objective.
C/G/T (challenger/starter/insurance) - Richburg won't be back until July after 2 surgeries. Person was signed to be a backup. There's nobody behind Staley/MM. Tomlinson had a MCL.
TE2 (starter) - This is a 500 snap player on offense alone. Just like the slot CB.
XWR (dynamic returner) - What if Goodwin goes down again and we lose that speed? Are we ever going to find a Ted Ginn Jr.?
S/CB (starter) - Reed had shoulder surgery and Williams is streaky at best and struggles with injuries too.

Pinion 2018: 68 Punts - 64LG - 43.7AVG - 22 (inside 20)
Hekker 2018: 43 - 68 - 46.3 - 21

Hekker plays for the Rams and is a pro bowl P.

If we're being honest, with a healthy roster, our P will be punting around 45 times a year (not factoring in the success of our defense). Now, average yards isn't the best metric for measuring the effectiveness of a P but this does provide perspective. Also, we're now the #1 team on the aggregate over 5 years in adjusted games lost due to injuries. In short our backups play...and play A LOT.

Are 45 punts, a 46 yard average and 21 punts inside the 20 going to add more value than the aforementioned? I'll even throw in a couple tricks plays for first downs.

The average ST snaps are around 200 alone.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by NinerGM:

Originally posted by thl408:
Yeah the guy can motor. I hope Hightower puts in a fake punt play. Just put it on film once and other teams will have to take time preparing for it. Might as well take advantage of his athleticism.

I don't have an issue with selecting a punter in the middle 4th round. Andy Lee flipping the field was an impactful part of the defense so I get the importance of a good punter. We just need Wishy to be a good punter and not just 'solid'. You can get solid punting in round 7 or UDFA. Punters drafted mid 4th have to be good, very good. I feel like punters should be bust proof. Catch ball, kick ball - exact same thing as it was in college.

Best summary on how I feel about the Wish selection. The odds of a 4th OL, CB, S or even TE becoming something special with the ability with greater impact (snap count) for our team IMHO is greater than the ability of the "best punter in the draft" to impact a team with so many needs in other areas. If I'm going to take a risk in an area of talent, why not take that risk in an area of need even if you feel initially that player "may not beat out" who you have there currently? I think it's pretty presumptuous to say given all the draft-eligible players, not one OL, CB, S or even TE available in the 4th has and absolute zero chance of challenging a starter or depth - especially on the OL. Especially. And it happens every year, some team wins that bet by turning a 4th rounder into a good/great player. More art than science I understand.

I mostly come here for the LOL's now but you bring up a good topic.

Does the best P in the draft at #110 (immediate starter) have more value than a PK (starter), WILL (insurance), FS (challenger/starter), C/G/T (challenger/starter/insurance), TE2 (starter), XWR (dynamic returner) or S/CB (starter)?

Pick #110:
PK (starter) - Puts actual points on the board and often times IS the difference in a game. And we're in a major contract dispute.
WILL (insurance) - Kwon is coming off late season ACL surgery. We have Elijah Lee. Finding a short-term starter, depth and ST help here is very important.
FS (challenger/starter) - Let's be real. A quality UDFA could genuinely challenge Ward and Colbert for a starting job if Woods is objective.
C/G/T (challenger/starter/insurance) - Richburg won't be back until July after 2 surgeries. Person was signed to be a backup. There's nobody behind Staley/MM. Tomlinson had a MCL.
TE2 (starter) - This is a 500 snap player on offense alone. Just like the slot CB.
XWR (dynamic returner) - What if Goodwin goes down again and we lose that speed? Are we ever going to find a Ted Ginn Jr.?
S/CB (starter) - Reed had shoulder surgery and Williams is streaky at best and struggles with injuries too.

Pinion 2018: 68 Punts - 64LG - 43.7AVG - 22 (inside 20)
Hekker 2018: 43 - 68 - 46.3 - 21

Hekker plays for the Rams and is a pro bowl P.

If we're being honest, with a healthy roster, our P will be punting around 45 times a year. Now, average yards isn't the best metric for measuring the effectiveness of a P but this does provide perspective.

Are 45 punts, a 46 yard average and 21 punts inside the 20 going to add more value than the aforementioned?

The average ST snaps are around 200 alone.

That's 49% inside the 20 vs. Pinion's 32%, a tremendous difference.

How much had to do with the punter is another matter. I'd have to see the LOS Punted From stat for that.

Originally posted by RTFirefly:

That's 49% inside the 20 vs. Pinion's 32%, a tremendous difference.

How much had to do with the punter is another matter. I'd have to see the LOS Punted From stat for that.

That's simply showing you an average to great punter range.

What's the rest of the point?

Hint: It starts with a letter 'V'...

Originally posted by RTFirefly:
That's 49% inside the 20 vs. Pinion's 32%, a tremendous difference.

How much had to do with the punter is another matter. I'd have to see the LOS Punted From stat for that.

On top of this,

Bradley Pinion's numbers coming out of Clemson:

Mitch Wishnowsky's numbers coming out of Utah:

Bradley's best year wasn't even Mitch's worst. I still don't know about taking a punter in the 4th, but on the bright side we upgraded the position which was needed. Giving opponents the ball at the damn 35-40 all year was killing us, we needed a guy that can pin teams deep and we got him. Maybe this guy wasn't going to be there when we picked again, who knows.. the Pats did take a punter in the 5th. He will also be our kickoff guy.