Originally posted by KeepRabbitsOut:
Originally posted by NCommand:
I mostly come here for the LOL's now but you bring up a good topic.
Does the best P in the draft at #110 (immediate starter) have more value than a PK (starter), WILL (insurance), FS (challenger/starter), C/G/T (challenger/starter/insurance), TE2 (starter), XWR (dynamic returner) or S/CB (starter)?
Pick #110:
PK (starter) - Puts actual points on the board and often times IS the difference in a game. And we're in a major contract dispute.
WILL (insurance) - Kwon is coming off late season ACL surgery. We have Elijah Lee. Finding a short-term starter, depth and ST help here is very important.
FS (challenger/starter) - Let's be real. A quality UDFA could genuinely challenge Ward and Colbert for a starting job if Woods is objective.
C/G/T (challenger/starter/insurance) - Richburg won't be back until July after 2 surgeries. Person was signed to be a backup. There's nobody behind Staley/MM. Tomlinson had a MCL.
TE2 (starter) - This is a 500 snap player on offense alone. Just like the slot CB.
XWR (dynamic returner) - What if Goodwin goes down again and we lose that speed? Are we ever going to find a Ted Ginn Jr.?
S/CB (starter) - Reed had shoulder surgery and Williams is streaky at best and struggles with injuries too.
Pinion 2018: 68 Punts - 64LG - 43.7AVG - 22 (inside 20)
Hekker 2018: 43 - 68 - 46.3 - 21
Hekker plays for the Rams and is a pro bowl P.
If we're being honest, with a healthy roster, our P will be punting around 45 times a year (not factoring in the success of our defense). Now, average yards isn't the best metric for measuring the effectiveness of a P but this does provide perspective. Also, we're now the #1 team on the aggregate over 5 years in adjusted games lost due to injuries. In short our backups play...and play A LOT.
Are 45 punts, a 46 yard average and 21 punts inside the 20 going to add more value than the aforementioned? I'll even throw in a couple tricks plays for first downs.
The average ST snaps are around 200 alone.
Good insight. Just as well they traded back a little. Seems like they were caught in between a rock and a hard place to justify the pick.
The thing is though in this part of the draft I keep hearing that it is all such a crap shoot and trying to be scientific with depth is tough. At least this guy starts I suppose.
Your comparison with Hekker and Pinion is interesting. It's the one with Michael Dickson which intrigues me.
Dickson 78 punts 69 long 48.2 avg 28 inside 20 trick plays, kick offs(drop punts) although blocked later in season.
That type of play will justify the pick against someone with a traditional style you can get in the 7th Or UDFA
Good post and thank you for that. Good objective post.
Nobody seems to want to talk about that...style. Hekker is more traditional and Dickson non-traditional. Dickson had to adjust late in the year d/t blocked kicks.
In line with Dickson, MW lead the NCAA with blocked kicks too - 3.
So it's a boom or bust kicking game.
A blocked kick CAN change the game probably more than a deep pin. Also, it's hard to imagine Hightower coaching up his blockers up front sliding to the right after the snap with 3 point men while MW rolls right and punts.
What made him effective in college will probably have to change at the NFL level and the balls are bigger as well. He'll be kicking at sea level in Santa Clara.
[ Edited by NCommand on Apr 29, 2019 at 4:08 PM ]