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Mitch Wishnowsky - Punter (Utah) is a 49er
May 4, 2019 at 9:06 AM
- theduke85
- Veteran
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Also let me add that field position absolutely does matter, and statistically the further you are away, the harder it is to score. Nobody is disputing that. The question is, how much added value does one punter have over another, and just as importantly, can he do this year-to-year? A lot of times statistics like this are subject to a lot of random noise/variation, i.e. a punter ranks good one year but not necessarily the next.
May 4, 2019 at 9:17 AM
- NCommand
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Originally posted by goodthings19:Originally posted by Nastastical:Originally posted by NCommand:Create a custom 49ers jersey ⇨Here is why the @49ers went in the 4th for this guy @mitchwish and he'll be a big asset to the defence this season. He also has a very accurate going in kick, so they see him as quite a weapon @jenniferleechan pic.twitter.com/5yoCJ1SrFd
— Prokick Australia (@ProkickAus) May 4, 2019
He gets so much hang time on his kicks. You can clearly see why returners struggle to get any yards against him.
5 seconds of hang time
Mostert will be there in 3...tie his shoe...then force a fair catch or down it inside the 20.
May 4, 2019 at 9:20 AM
- Giedi
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Originally posted by goodthings19:Originally posted by Nastastical:Originally posted by NCommand:Here is why the @49ers went in the 4th for this guy @mitchwish and he'll be a big asset to the defence this season. He also has a very accurate going in kick, so they see him as quite a weapon @jenniferleechan pic.twitter.com/5yoCJ1SrFd
— Prokick Australia (@ProkickAus) May 4, 2019
He gets so much hang time on his kicks. You can clearly see why returners struggle to get any yards against him.
5 seconds of hang time
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May 4, 2019 at 9:21 AM
- Giedi
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Originally posted by NCommand:Mostert will be there in 3...tie his shoe...then force a fair catch or down it inside the 20.
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He probably can make a cheese sandwich too with that kind of hangtime.
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May 4, 2019 at 9:22 AM
- NCommand
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Originally posted by theduke85:Also let me add that field position absolutely does matter, and statistically the further you are away, the harder it is to score. Nobody is disputing that. The question is, how much added value does one punter have over another, and just as importantly, can he do this year-to-year? A lot of times statistics like this are subject to a lot of random noise/variation, i.e. a punter ranks good one year but not necessarily the next.
https://www.49erswebzone.com/commentary/2078-punter-theory-deconstructing-49ers-fourth-round-pick/
An opponent's starting field position does not corollate to whether the 49ers win or lose a game.
Back in 2011, 49er opponents started drives on their own 24.3-yard line. The next year, opponents started drives on the 24.9-yard line. Six-tenths of a yard was not the reason the 49ers won 13 games in 2011, nor was it the reason the team dropped to 11 wins in 2012.
In 2012, Lee had 36 punts that put opposing teams inside the 20-yard line. It's a useful statistic, and a small reason opposing offenses started drives behind the 25-yard line.
Coincidentally, Pinion had 36 punts inside the 20 in 2015 when the 49ers finished 5-11 and again in 2017 when the 49ers finished 6-10. The 49ers' defense was 18th overall in 2015, and 25th in 2017.
Of note, Lee had 42 punts inside the 20 in 2007, but the opposition started drives on their own 30.2-yard line. A thin defense allowed an average of almost 30 yards per drive, and the 49ers only finished with 5 wins.
The 49ers' defense was 2nd in the NFL in 2011 and 2012, racking up 63 takeaways and allowing an average of 3.6 yards per rush. The defense also finished both seasons second in the league in the number of first downs allowed.
Even with the 11th best offense in 2011 and 2012, the 49ers were able to sustain drives over 2:30 seconds. The offense benefited from excellent field position both seasons, starting drives at its own 33.5-yard line in 2011 and 31.8-yard line in 2012 – both league bests.
Translation: punters are pretty useless in affecting the outcome of a game as long as they don't get kicks blocked on the regular.
I'd even argue having a great gunner is even more important than the punter themselves.
[ Edited by NCommand on May 4, 2019 at 9:26 AM ]
May 4, 2019 at 9:28 AM
- NCommand
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Originally posted by Giedi:Originally posted by NCommand:Mostert will be there in 3...tie his shoe...then force a fair catch or down it inside the 20.
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He probably can make a cheese sandwich too with that kind of hangtime.
That'll certainly help: 5.52 and 5.58.
May 4, 2019 at 9:33 AM
- RTFirefly
- Veteran
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Originally posted by thl408:
Originally posted by hondakillerzx:
Can we start calling him Mitch "The Weapon" Wishnowsky? Any punter drafted in the 4th round needs a badass nickname
Wishy Mitch the Ostrich. Or, "The Oztrich". Ostriches are known for their powerful legs. If you don't think an ostrich is fearsome or badass I recommend searching Youtube for "ostrich attacks man". (NSFW, RIP man)
"Thunder from Down Under". Thunder because he has a booming leg and he could be a stripper if he wanted to be. And he's from the "Land down under".
"Cassy" for cassowary. Similar but better idea than ostrich, because the cassowary is a rare Aussie bird. A bit smaller than the ostrich but much worse tempered. One just killed a person a few weeks ago.
May 4, 2019 at 9:39 AM
- frenchmov
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Originally posted by theduke85:It's not about whether a punter is important or not, it's more a question of how much variance and added value there between a "good" punter over a "bad" punter. Randy Moss is transcendent, having him as your WR1 is going to be a huge boon versus having Arnaz Battle as your WR1. Tom Brady is phenomenal, having him as your starting QB is going to be dramatically different than having CJ Beathard as your starting QB. The difference between the best punter in the league and the worst punter in the league is nowhere near that.
You call Andy Lee a "weapon". What is your basis for him being a "weapon"? Because a commentator said "he's really good"? Because he got voted to a Pro Bowl? Because he "looked good"? Relative to what? See, that's largely the problem -- punters are so hard to objectively evaluate that we just resort to shallow, hand-wavy explanations like "yeah he's a weapon". There are so many factors outside the punter's control (where was he punting from on average, how many times did he punt, how good were his gunners, was he kicking indoors, what were the weather conditions like in his outdoor games) that it's hard to truly assess a punter's abilities.
Even if Wishnowsky is "good", he's going to be a marginal upgrade over some random, nondescript punter. And taking him in the 4th round came with the opportunity cost of finding an impact player. Richard Sherman was a 4th round pick. Kam Chancellor was a 5th round pick. George Kittle was a 5th round pick. Do you think Andy Lee was more impactful than Sherman/Chancellor/Kittle?
Further exacerbating this is the fact that great offenses (which we will likely have with Shanahan) don't even use their punter much. Andy Lee punted 94 times for the Cardinals last season. Thomas Morstead of the Saints punted only 43 times! Now the return on investment drops even more, because he's not even out there very often. It's kind of like having a great kick returner in the NFL in 2019. That's great and all, but kick returners are being marginalized because of the increased touchbacks as a result of kickoffs being moved up.
Marcus lattimore, Cory lemonier, Marcus Martin, tank carradine, and thousands of others were 4th round pick or higher and did nothing. You are picking out a few exceptions to the rule when the likely outcome is a 4th round backup CB would never amount to s**t
May 4, 2019 at 9:41 AM
- qnnhan7
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Originally posted by RTFirefly:"Cassy" for cassowary. Similar but better idea than ostrich, because the cassowary is a rare Aussie bird. A bit smaller than the ostrich but much worse tempered. One just killed a person a few weeks ago.
Big long talons. Kicks you and then rips your innards open. Horrible way to die. Makes me shudder just thinking about. Then there are tourist people trying to get close to one
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[ Edited by qnnhan7 on May 4, 2019 at 9:42 AM ]
May 4, 2019 at 9:42 AM
- Alfienator
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Originally posted by qnnhan7:Originally posted by RTFirefly:"Cassy" for cassowary. Similar but better idea than ostrich, because the cassowary is a rare Aussie bird. A bit smaller than the ostrich but much worse tempered. One just killed a person a few weeks ago.
Big long talons. Kicks you and then rips your innards open. Horrible way to die. Makes me shudder just thinking about. Then there are tourist people trying to get close to one
If it kicks even a more better comparison
May 4, 2019 at 9:47 AM
- Nastastical
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Originally posted by theduke85:It's not about whether a punter is important or not, it's more a question of how much variance and added value there between a "good" punter over a "bad" punter. Randy Moss is transcendent, having him as your WR1 is going to be a huge boon versus having Arnaz Battle as your WR1. Tom Brady is phenomenal, having him as your starting QB is going to be dramatically different than having CJ Beathard as your starting QB. The difference between the best punter in the league and the worst punter in the league is nowhere near that.Originally posted by Chance:Good teams aren't punting from the 50. They're converting their third downs more frequently and getting into scoring position. Further a five yard field position difference is the equivalent of having every field goal try be 5 yards further back for the opposing team. In a game of inches, field position is critical. I can't believe a Niner fan who got to witness how much of a weapon Andy Lee was, write off how important a punter can be.
You call Andy Lee a "weapon". What is your basis for him being a "weapon"? Because a commentator said "he's really good"? Because he got voted to a Pro Bowl? Because he "looked good"? Relative to what? See, that's largely the problem -- punters are so hard to objectively evaluate that we just resort to shallow, hand-wavy explanations like "yeah he's a weapon". There are so many factors outside the punter's control (where was he punting from on average, how many times did he punt, how good were his gunners, was he kicking indoors, what were the weather conditions like in his outdoor games) that it's hard to truly assess a punter's abilities.
Even if Wishnowsky is "good", he's going to be a marginal upgrade over some random, nondescript punter. And taking him in the 4th round came with the opportunity cost of finding an impact player. Richard Sherman was a 4th round pick. Kam Chancellor was a 5th round pick. George Kittle was a 5th round pick. Do you think Andy Lee was more impactful than Sherman/Chancellor/Kittle?
Further exacerbating this is the fact that great offenses (which we will likely have with Shanahan) don't even use their punter much. Andy Lee punted 94 times for the Cardinals last season. Thomas Morstead of the Saints punted only 43 times! Now the return on investment drops even more, because he's not even out there very often. It's kind of like having a great kick returner in the NFL in 2019. That's great and all, but kick returners are being marginalized because of the increased touchbacks as a result of kickoffs being moved up.
The biggest thing that you seem to ignore is the value of a good punter over the value of a normal 4th round pick at another position. Most times that 4th round pick is merely just a depth player that will mostly contribute only on special teams, with a chance of developing into something more down the road if you're lucky.
I'd rather have the best punter in the draft than the 15th best OL or DB. At least we know from day 1 that our punter will play a significant role and the likelihood that he'll be amongst the very best punters in the league if he kicks it the way he did in college. Punters aren't like place kickers, so what they do in college usually carries over because they don't have to deal with pressure situations that can ruin them and their fragile nerves. This is why many college kickers fail after being considered great at their job. What you see with a punter is what you usually get.
The next biggest thing is that a great punter definitely helps a top offense or defense because field position will always come into play. No one rolls every single game and never punts. You'll be in games against top defenses time to time and this is where he'll make his draft selection worth it. There is a huge difference between starting at the 20-30 and starting pinned inside the 10. The error for mistakes that could cause a game changing momentum swing is increased big time when a team is close to their own endzone. Basically if we have a drive stall out at midfield, you can almost guarantee that Wishnowsky will put the opposing team in a position they don't want to be in. You very rarely could say that about an average punter like Pinion because he couldn't directional punt to save his life. Andy Lee's ability to flip the field in our favor was a big time asset considering the type of teams we had when he was here. Those few extra yards can mean the difference in the opposing team getting to kick a FG or having to punt themselves. This is a game of inches and yards and every single one matters in close games.
Some act like an elite punter has no value when we play in a division against 2 of them and get a first hand look at how it can swing a game in their favor.
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May 4, 2019 at 9:48 AM
- Bobdawg78
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Another perk of having drafted this punter, is that we have 4 years of cost certainty in him. He is gonna cost far less than a FA punter would, and guaranteeing a minimum 4 year starter for us with a 4th round pick is not a bad investment, especially when it was a position of need, and we drafted one of the best to come out of college over the last 20 years. No point in whining over this pick anymore, we need to embrace it, and be happy we got a good punter again.
May 4, 2019 at 9:57 AM
- theduke85
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Originally posted by frenchmov:I'm picking out a few exceptions because I'm pointing out that taking a punter this high comes with the opportunity cost of possibly missing out on a player like that.
Originally posted by theduke85:
It's not about whether a punter is important or not, it's more a question of how much variance and added value there between a "good" punter over a "bad" punter. Randy Moss is transcendent, having him as your WR1 is going to be a huge boon versus having Arnaz Battle as your WR1. Tom Brady is phenomenal, having him as your starting QB is going to be dramatically different than having CJ Beathard as your starting QB. The difference between the best punter in the league and the worst punter in the league is nowhere near that.
You call Andy Lee a "weapon". What is your basis for him being a "weapon"? Because a commentator said "he's really good"? Because he got voted to a Pro Bowl? Because he "looked good"? Relative to what? See, that's largely the problem -- punters are so hard to objectively evaluate that we just resort to shallow, hand-wavy explanations like "yeah he's a weapon". There are so many factors outside the punter's control (where was he punting from on average, how many times did he punt, how good were his gunners, was he kicking indoors, what were the weather conditions like in his outdoor games) that it's hard to truly assess a punter's abilities.
Even if Wishnowsky is "good", he's going to be a marginal upgrade over some random, nondescript punter. And taking him in the 4th round came with the opportunity cost of finding an impact player. Richard Sherman was a 4th round pick. Kam Chancellor was a 5th round pick. George Kittle was a 5th round pick. Do you think Andy Lee was more impactful than Sherman/Chancellor/Kittle?
Further exacerbating this is the fact that great offenses (which we will likely have with Shanahan) don't even use their punter much. Andy Lee punted 94 times for the Cardinals last season. Thomas Morstead of the Saints punted only 43 times! Now the return on investment drops even more, because he's not even out there very often. It's kind of like having a great kick returner in the NFL in 2019. That's great and all, but kick returners are being marginalized because of the increased touchbacks as a result of kickoffs being moved up.
Marcus lattimore, Cory lemonier, Marcus Martin, tank carradine, and thousands of others were 4th round pick or higher and did nothing. You are picking out a few exceptions to the rule when the likely outcome is a 4th round backup CB would never amount to s**t
May 4, 2019 at 10:07 AM
- Nastastical
- Veteran
- Posts: 2,887
Originally posted by Bobdawg78:Another perk of having drafted this punter, is that we have 4 years of cost certainty in him. He is gonna cost far less than a FA punter would, and guaranteeing a minimum 4 year starter for us with a 4th round pick is not a bad investment, especially when it was a position of need, and we drafted one of the best to come out of college over the last 20 years. No point in whining over this pick anymore, we need to embrace it, and be happy we got a good punter again.
It's not even so much about the punter, but the notion that some 4th round DB or OL was going to come in and play a significant role on this team. It's the arrogance of some fans that feel like their uninformed draft grades on a prospect hold more weight than our front office. Any of you guys ever stop to think that maybe our guys running the show just didn't have high grades on most of the players on the board? Or even that they might've had similar grades on a ton of prospects and felt that there will be guys drafted in the 4th round that have similar grades to the guys selected in the 6th-7th? If this is the case, why wouldn't you grab a player a little early if you felt he'd be gone before you picked again? Why risk losing him if you aren't in love with any of the other prospects available?
Everyone just assumes that they know everything all the time when it comes to sports and being a fan. Go grind your *ss off and climb the ladder of a NFL team if y'all feel you can contribute so much to building a team.
May 4, 2019 at 10:07 AM
- theduke85
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Originally posted by Nastastical:Andy Lee landed punts inside the 20 ~32% of the time. Bradley Pinion in his time with the 49ers landed punts inside the 20 about 34% of the time (Pro Football Focus claimed he did this 39% of the time). You're just making sweeping, hand-wavy statements that aren't really backed up by stats.
The next biggest thing is that a great punter definitely helps a top offense or defense because field position will always come into play. No one rolls every single game and never punts. You'll be in games against top defenses time to time and this is where he'll make his draft selection worth it. There is a huge difference between starting at the 20-30 and starting pinned inside the 10. The error for mistakes that could cause a game changing momentum swing is increased big time when a team is close to their own endzone. Basically if we have a drive stall out at midfield, you can almost guarantee that Wishnowsky will put the opposing team in a position they don't want to be in. You very rarely could say that about an average punter like Pinion because he couldn't directional punt to save his life. Andy Lee's ability to flip the field in our favor was a big time asset considering the type of teams we had when he was here. Those few extra yards can mean the difference in the opposing team getting to kick a FG or having to punt themselves. This is a game of inches and yards and every single one matters in close games.
Also you mention "because of the type of teams we had here". As I said in my previous post, the 49ers are going to have one of the best offenses in the league if things go as planned. Better offense = less punts = ROI on the punter is marginalized more and more. Again, Andy Lee punted 94 times with the Cardinals last year, whereas the Saints only punted 43 times.
[ Edited by theduke85 on May 4, 2019 at 10:08 AM ]