Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Originally posted by thl408:
Someone went through the trouble to crunch some numbers and concluded that a 49er 4th rounder has a 83% bust rate. I look at that as a 17% hit rate that I wouldn't mind taking a flier on with a mid 4th rounder. The draft experts said that there was value in the mid rounds. I wouldn't know, but it's not like there is a lot of competition at backup OG/OT/FS. A gamble on a mid 4th round OL/DB might amount to something that's better than Magnusson, SColeman, Exum.
"Well which player would you have taken?". I don't know. My big board consisted of 2 prospects (Bosa, QW) so I never scouted the top 150. That's for Kyle to trust his scouts and take a BPA at a non-ST position. Then go ahead and settle for a middling punter in the 7th/UDFA.
By that point in the 4th round, there really wasn't meaningful difference between the caliber of OL available and Ross Reynolds that they brought in via UDFA.
Its going to be interesting to follow up on the players taken after Wishnowsky. Even with Pinion, as much as people complained you'd have thought that the 49ers missed on numerous star players.
These are the 20 guys taken right after Pinion.
snipped
Pinion was a major disappointment and is still far better than the majority of guys taken right after him.
You listed lots of 5th rounders - Wishy was a mid 4th. Every draft is different, there might be a position player worth taking in the 2019 mid 4th. If you want to use the 2015 draft with Pinion, Kwon Alexander was taken after the 110 pick (draft slot Wishy was taken). Looking at some of the recent drafts, there are worthy players to be had in the middle 4th. I won't list them because it's just cherry picking. A team can do their homework, take an educated gamble, and hit on a position player.
The logic of, "the position player chosen will likely bust so why not take the sure thing punter", isn't logic I'll buy into. I know that most picks will bust, but that means some picks will hit. It's a chance I think a young team should take in the middle 4th. IMO, the roster isn't talented enough that a mid 4th can't come in and provide arrow up potential to one of the weaker position groups.
Yes it will be interesting to follow up on the players after Wishy. Doesn't mean the 49ers were even considering them, but it will show some of the talent (or non talent) in this year's mid 4th. I don't think anyone is talking about star players, or all pros, or HoF talent in the mid 4th. I'd take a solid starter at a position that plays offense/defense and call that a 4th round hit.
