Mitch Wishnowsky - Punter (Utah) is a 49er

Originally posted by NCommand:

Because place kickers are more valued far more than P's?

You homeboys have some stats validation of punters picked in rounds 1-4 and their success rates?

Every one of them better be HOF-worthy or I'm coming for you defender-rascals!!!

Punters and kickers are two different positions nonetheless, apples and oranges.

There was a study done on punters, drafted VS undrafted, about 5-6 years ago. It was posted in the Pinion thread multiple times, the biggest takeaway was that most of the top punters in the league were drafted.

You seem to take issue with where we drafted Wish, not that we spent a pick on Wish. He is not a conventional punter like Dickson was, but if he turns out to be Dickson like then the juice will be worth the squeeze.

Bill Belichick and Ozzie Newsome have both drafted punters twice, Pete Carroll did the same last year and if you recall in 2007 the Steelers signed Andy Lee to an offer sheet when he was a RFA. The smarter minds in the NFL recognize the value of a punter and understand the difference a good one can make. Yes, those guys took punters in the 5th (6th for Lee) but there also was not a Dickson like punter available before last year and Dickson's impact in year one can impact the value on punters who may be the next Dickson type.

This guy is a total boss. You can tell that he'll be a great addition to the locker room. Love how John and Kyle keep bringing in guys that help contribute towards a great culture within the organization

Originally posted by evil:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Because place kickers are more valued far more than P's?

You homeboys have some stats validation of punters picked in rounds 1-4 and their success rates?

Every one of them better be HOF-worthy or I'm coming for you defender-rascals!!!

Punters and kickers are two different positions nonetheless, apples and oranges.

There was a study done on punters, drafted VS undrafted, about 5-6 years ago. It was posted in the Pinion thread multiple times, the biggest takeaway was that most of the top punters in the league were drafted.

You seem to take issue with where we drafted Wish, not that we spent a pick on Wish. He is not a conventional punter like Dickson was, but if he turns out to be Dickson like then the juice will be worth the squeeze.

Bill Belichick and Ozzie Newsome have both drafted punters twice, Pete Carroll did the same last year and if you recall in 2007 the Steelers signed Andy Lee to an offer sheet when he was a RFA. The smarter minds in the NFL recognize the value of a punter and understand the difference a good one can make. Yes, those guys took punters in the 5th (6th for Lee) but there also was not a Dickson like punter available before last year and Dickson's impact in year one can impact the value on punters who may be the next Dickson type.

Not different. PK's are valued more and go as high as the first round and OTC noted the most successful were UDFA's. Therefore, where are the best punters coming from? The mass majority of both come from 5th-UDFA and for good reason.

Now, of the punters drafted in rounds 1-4, how did they turn out? Any better than 5-UDFA?

Originally posted by Hoovtrain:

Originally posted by evil:

Originally posted by NCommand:

OTC did some research on kickers. Feel free to PM him.


Also, that's not too difficult to look up on your own for punters specifically.

But why is that?

The reason why there isn't much difference between a 5th round punter and an UDFA is because of the 32 teams annually, usually just 1 or 2 need a punter. So the difference between the top punter (5th) and the 4th (UDFA) isn't significant usually and the skill set doesn't vary much compared to a power RG vs. zone blocking RG. By the time a G is picked 5th-7th, the top ones are usually long gone no matter the system/skill set.

We talking punters, what do kickers have to do with that?

Lol was thinking the same thing

Yeah, that was part of the Gould thread to say why I am hesitant to draft a kicker over signing a proven vet or developing a current UDFA like Jon Brown who is entering his 2nd season. Both the latter options seemed to be supported by that research as superior options. Punters on the other hand are a different story. Haven't looked up that info, but a quick look-up is pretty easy.

Among top 10 punters in terms of average last year, the majority were drafted. See below their rank and round picked.

1. Michael Dickson (5th)
2. Andy Lee (6th)
3. Sam Koch (6th)
4. Cameron Johnston (UDFA)
5. Brett Kern (UDFA)
6. Matt Bosher (6th)
7. Britton Colquitt (UDFA)
8. Rigoberto Sanchez (UDFA)
9. Lachlan Edwards (7th)
T10. Matt Wile (UDFA)
T10. Bryan Anger (3rd)
T10. Pat O'Donnell (6th)

So there was a three-way tie for 10th, but as you can see, it was more common for top NFL punters to be drafted. Although only one in the top 10 went in the 4th or earlier. Still, 7/12 drafted if you count the ones tied for 10th. Time will tell if we overdrafted Wishnowsky. He better be really good for us to take him that early instead of waiting to get Bailey from Stanford instead. In this case, the value was inflated by pressure of another team who was definitely willing to take a punter in the 5th and might've been willing to take a different player in the 4th.

Originally posted by NCommand:
Because place kickers are more valued far more than P's?

You homeboys have some stats validation of punters picked in rounds 1-4 and their success rates?

Every one of them better be HOF-worthy or I'm coming for you defender-rascals!!!

lol.... as you know NC....there is only 1 punter in the hall of fame. our own Ray Guy

But....
Surprise -Surprise- Surprise

Since 1993 (so we can skip the years with 12 rounds)

1993- HAROLD alexander 3rd round played 2 seasons ( below player average of 3.3 years)
1995- Todd Sauerbrun 2nd round 13 years 4 time all-pro
1997 Brad Maynard- 3rd round 15 seasons 3 time all Pro
1999- Josh bidwell- 4th round 13 seasons 1 time all pro
2001- Nick Harris-4th round 12 seasons no all pros
2002- Dave Zastudil- 4th round 14 seasons no all pro
2004- BJ Sander-3rd round 2 seasons
2005- Dustin Colquitt- 3rd round 15 seasons and still counting 2 time pro-bowler
2007- Adam Podlesh- 4th round 8 seasons no awards
2007- Daniel Sepulveda- 4th round 5 seasons No awards- Walked away from football to take on a law degree
2012- Bran Anger-3rd round 8th season and counting no awards. Odd as hell considering life time average OVER 46 yards.

this list tells us that a punter is far more likely to out live any other position in the NFL at 2nd /3rd/4th round. Oddly 3rd round is a 50/50 bet on getting a decade of success or a 2nd year wash out. Yay Low sample size

4th round averages 10+ years even with Daniel Sepulveda killing it by retiring early.

I am surprised there was not more players like Todd Sauerbrun. 4 all pros over 13 years kinda makes him the T.O of his era. Then a guy like Anger averages over 46 for his career, with 34% of his kicks inside the 20.....and nothing....he is .3 yards per kick behind Andy Lee who pins teams 32% inside the 20.

So i don't know..... I like our guy and i feel statically safe with a 4th rounder.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Yeah, that was part of the Gould thread to say why I am hesitant to draft a kicker over signing a proven vet or developing a current UDFA like Jon Brown who is entering his 2nd season. Both the latter options seemed to be supported by that research as superior options. Punters on the other hand are a different story. Haven't looked up that info, but a quick look-up is pretty easy.

Among top 10 punters in terms of average last year, almost all of them were drafted. See below their rank and round picked.

1. Michael Dickson (5th)
2. Andy Lee (6th)
3. Sam Koch (6th)
4. Cameron Johnston (UDFA)
5. Brett Kern (UDFA)
6. Matt Bosher (6th)
7. Britton Colquitt (UDFA)
8. Rigoberto Sanchez (UDFA)
9. Lachlan Edwards (7th)
T10. Matt Wile (UDFA)
T10. Bryan Anger (3rd)
T10. Pat O'Donnell (6th)

So there was a three-way tie for 10th, but as you can see, it was more common for top NFL punters to be drafted. Although only one in the top 10 went in the 4th or earlier. Still, 7/12 drafted if you count the ones tied for 10th. Time will tell if we overdrafted Wishnowsky. He better be really good for us to take him that early instead of waiting to get Bailey from Stanford instead. In this case, the value was inflated by pressure of another team who was definitely willing to take a punter in the 5th and might've been willing to take a different player in the 4th.

Originally posted by Dshearn:

lol.... as you know NC....there is only 1 punter in the hall of fame. our own Ray Guy

But....
Surprise -Surprise- Surprise

Since 1993 (so we can skip the years with 12 rounds)

1993- HAROLD alexander 3rd round played 2 seasons ( below player average of 3.3 years)
1995- Todd Sauerbrun 2nd round 13 years 4 time all-pro
1997 Brad Maynard- 3rd round 15 seasons 3 time all Pro
1999- Josh bidwell- 4th round 13 seasons 1 time all pro
2001- Nick Harris-4th round 12 seasons no all pros
2002- Dave Zastudil- 4th round 14 seasons no all pro
2004- BJ Sander-3rd round 2 seasons
2005- Dustin Colquitt- 3rd round 15 seasons and still counting 2 time pro-bowler
2007- Adam Podlesh- 4th round 8 seasons no awards
2007- Daniel Sepulveda- 4th round 5 seasons No awards- Walked away from football to take on a law degree
2012- Bran Anger-3rd round 8th season and counting no awards. Odd as hell considering life time average OVER 46 yards.

this list tells us that a punter is far more likely to out live any other position in the NFL at 2nd /3rd/4th round. Oddly 3rd round is a 50/50 bet on getting a decade of success or a 2nd year wash out. Yay Low sample size

4th round averages 10+ years even with Daniel Sepulveda killing it by retiring early.

I am surprised there was not more players like Todd Sauerbrun. 4 all pros over 13 years kinda makes him the T.O of his era. Then a guy like Anger averages over 46 for his career, with 34% of his kicks inside the 20.....and nothing....he is .3 yards per kick behind Andy Lee who pins teams 32% inside the 20.

So i don't know..... I like our guy and i feel statically safe with a 4th rounder.

Now THIS is what I love about you two. Soooooo much better that the defender-approach of this guy being guaranteed to be a HOF, punt for us for 10 years, an all pro, pro bowler, will change the game, etc. simply because WE drafted him in the 4th.

Well done boys. Kudos.

So yes, as the above shows, if teams believe there is a special punter in that draft class, they have no problem drafting them high. It hasn't been as common lately, but historically, plenty have gone high and had great careers. Mitch has certainly had the hype as a "special" player (no puns intended), so Shanahan could very well be right about his comment that Mitch wouldn't have been there in the 5th.

There's no guarantee he becomes an All Pro, but he certainly comes with hype for the leg power, accuracy, holding ability, kickoff ability, and athleticism to be used on trick plays/fakes. So it's not totally shocking that a few teams -- including us -- would've targeted him in the 4th.

I've learned over time to not get overly emotional about punters getting selected. It's never a sexy pick that people praise right away, especially if it's before the 6th or 7th rounds. Evidence shows though that you can get commensurate value if you pick the right guy. We just have to hope Mitch is worth what we used on him.

Originally posted by Dshearn:

2012- Bran Anger-3rd round 8th season and counting no awards. Odd as hell considering life time average OVER 46 yards.

FWIW Tampa recently cut him and is currently a FA. His 45 yards per punt last year ranks 18th & his net average is 25th.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

So yes, as the above shows, if teams believe there is a special punter in that draft class, they have no problem drafting them high. It hasn't been as common lately, but historically, plenty have gone high and had great careers. Mitch has certainly had the hype as a "special" player (no puns intended), so Shanahan could very well be right about his comment that Mitch wouldn't have been there in the 5th.

There's no guarantee he becomes an All Pro, but he certainly comes with hype for the leg power, accuracy, holding ability, kickoff ability, and athleticism to be used on trick plays/fakes. So it's not totally shocking that a few teams -- including us -- would've targeted him in the 4th.

I've learned over time to not get overly emotional about punters getting selected. It's never a sexy pick that people praise right away, especially if it's before the 6th or 7th rounds. Evidence shows though that you can get commensurate value if you pick the right guy. We just have to hope Mitch is worth what we used on him.

Originally posted by Jcool:

Originally posted by Dshearn:

2012- Bran Anger-3rd round 8th season and counting no awards. Odd as hell considering life time average OVER 46 yards.

FWIW Tampa recently cut him and is currently a FA. His 45 yards per punt last year ranks 18th & his net average is 25th.

Net's a dead giveaway. That's the stat, along with % success rate downed inside 10/20 that I prefer. Generally gives an idea about hang time. All of these depend in some measure from how good the coverage team is. Tough to do comparisons strictly on such stats.

Originally posted by RTFirefly:

Originally posted by Jcool:

Originally posted by Dshearn:

2012- Bran Anger-3rd round 8th season and counting no awards. Odd as hell considering life time average OVER 46 yards.

FWIW Tampa recently cut him and is currently a FA. His 45 yards per punt last year ranks 18th & his net average is 25th.

Net's a dead giveaway. That's the stat, along with % success rate downed inside 10/20 that I prefer. Generally gives an idea about hang time. All of these depend in some measure from how good the coverage team is. Tough to do comparisons strictly on such stats.

fair catch rate.....

truth be told if we get any deeper in to this punter statistics....we are going to start bring in crap like space time and quark particles

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

So yes, as the above shows, if teams believe there is a special punter in that draft class, they have no problem drafting them high. It hasn't been as common lately, but historically, plenty have gone high and had great careers. Mitch has certainly had the hype as a "special" player (no puns intended), so Shanahan could very well be right about his comment that Mitch wouldn't have been there in the 5th.

There's no guarantee he becomes an All Pro, but he certainly comes with hype for the leg power, accuracy, holding ability, kickoff ability, and athleticism to be used on trick plays/fakes. So it's not totally shocking that a few teams -- including us -- would've targeted him in the 4th.

I've learned over time to not get overly emotional about punters getting selected. It's never a sexy pick that people praise right away, especially if it's before the 6th or 7th rounds. Evidence shows though that you can get commensurate value if you pick the right guy. We just have to hope Mitch is worth what we used on him.

When pinion was shown the door I was all for drafting mitch.

When I logged onto the net a little late for start of 4th round and saw mitch had been selected I was, to say the least, stunned. 5th,6th,7th not an issue for me.

Going by various vids that have found their way to this thread, mitch was as surprised as anyone to get the call so early. Unless it appears later, there also doesn't look like anyone filmed the call from mitch's end cos nobody was expecting it so soon.

If he only turns out to be just an above average punter in the nfl, Lynch, Shanahan and scouting corps really need a good kicking.

That said, I have confidence in my boy being very effective.

Originally posted by Dshearn:

Originally posted by RTFirefly:

Originally posted by Jcool:

Originally posted by Dshearn:

2012- Bran Anger-3rd round 8th season and counting no awards. Odd as hell considering life time average OVER 46 yards.

FWIW Tampa recently cut him and is currently a FA. His 45 yards per punt last year ranks 18th & his net average is 25th.

Net's a dead giveaway. That's the stat, along with % success rate downed inside 10/20 that I prefer. Generally gives an idea about hang time. All of these depend in some measure from how good the coverage team is. Tough to do comparisons strictly on such stats.

fair catch rate.....

truth be told if we get any deeper in to this punter statistics....we are going to start bring in crap like space time and quark particles

Originally posted by Dshearn:

fair catch rate.....

truth be told if we get any deeper in to this punter statistics....we are going to start bring in crap like space time and quark particles

Stats are screwed. Average yards net or not don't really tell accurate story.
Percentage of available field covered should somehow be factored in or measured.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Yeah, that was part of the Gould thread to say why I am hesitant to draft a kicker over signing a proven vet or developing a current UDFA like Jon Brown who is entering his 2nd season. Both the latter options seemed to be supported by that research as superior options. Punters on the other hand are a different story. Haven't looked up that info, but a quick look-up is pretty easy.

Among top 10 punters in terms of average last year, almost all of them were drafted. See below their rank and round picked.

1. Michael Dickson (5th)
2. Andy Lee (6th)
3. Sam Koch (6th)
4. Cameron Johnston (UDFA)
5. Brett Kern (UDFA)
6. Matt Bosher (6th)
7. Britton Colquitt (UDFA)
8. Rigoberto Sanchez (UDFA)
9. Lachlan Edwards (7th)
T10. Matt Wile (UDFA)
T10. Bryan Anger (3rd)
T10. Pat O'Donnell (6th)

So there was a three-way tie for 10th, but as you can see, it was more common for top NFL punters to be drafted. Although only one in the top 10 went in the 4th or earlier. Still, 7/12 drafted if you count the ones tied for 10th. Time will tell if we overdrafted Wishnowsky. He better be really good for us to take him that early instead of waiting to get Bailey from Stanford instead. In this case, the value was inflated by pressure of another team who was definitely willing to take a punter in the 5th and might've been willing to take a different player in the 4th.

Originally posted by Dshearn:

lol.... as you know NC....there is only 1 punter in the hall of fame. our own Ray Guy

But....
Surprise -Surprise- Surprise

Since 1993 (so we can skip the years with 12 rounds)

1993- HAROLD alexander 3rd round played 2 seasons ( below player average of 3.3 years)
1995- Todd Sauerbrun 2nd round 13 years 4 time all-pro
1997 Brad Maynard- 3rd round 15 seasons 3 time all Pro
1999- Josh bidwell- 4th round 13 seasons 1 time all pro
2001- Nick Harris-4th round 12 seasons no all pros
2002- Dave Zastudil- 4th round 14 seasons no all pro
2004- BJ Sander-3rd round 2 seasons
2005- Dustin Colquitt- 3rd round 15 seasons and still counting 2 time pro-bowler
2007- Adam Podlesh- 4th round 8 seasons no awards
2007- Daniel Sepulveda- 4th round 5 seasons No awards- Walked away from football to take on a law degree
2012- Bran Anger-3rd round 8th season and counting no awards. Odd as hell considering life time average OVER 46 yards.

this list tells us that a punter is far more likely to out live any other position in the NFL at 2nd /3rd/4th round. Oddly 3rd round is a 50/50 bet on getting a decade of success or a 2nd year wash out. Yay Low sample size

4th round averages 10 years even with Daniel Sepulveda killing it by retiring early.

I am surprised there was not more players like Todd Sauerbrun. 4 all pros over 13 years kinda makes him the T.O of his era. Then a guy like Anger averages over 46 for his career, with 34% of his kicks inside the 20.....and nothing....he is .3 yards per kick behind Andy Lee who pins teams 32% inside the 20.

So i don't know..... I like our guy and i feel statically safe with a 4th rounder.

Now THIS is what I love about you two. Soooooo much better that the defender-approach of this guy being guaranteed to be a HOF, punt for us for 10 years, an all pro, pro bowler, will change the game, etc. simply because WE drafted him in the 4th.

Well done boys. Kudos.

Yes, it was great to see them put out valid stats and rankings of actual punters vs throwing out a random blurb about Kickers as evidence to support their view