PYMWYMI 2019 - UPDATE 9/4

I originally had them winning 6 games, but I don't the six games we can win.

Originally posted by mayo49:

I originally had them winning 6 games, but I don't the six games we can win.

Yeah.

1. Our DC doesn't seem like the brightest.
2. Our DBs are questionable.
3. None of our WRs are #1s or if they are, they are extremely inexperienced.
4. Our OL is average at best.
5. Our QB appears a little shaken and rusty.
6. Our RBs are either injury prone or not workhorse runners.
7. All we have that is legit is Kittle.

This reminds me of the Nolan era when we just had Vernon Davis. But this time, we don't have Gore.

6 - 9 - 1

A team has to have decent or good personnel to start with for them to go from the bottom to the SB in 2-3 years. If all you need is a QB, a couple of receivers or a defensive playmaker to pull the D together it can happen. So can making a coaching change. When you need almost an entire rebuild it is a lot harder unless you really have a lot of high draft picks stockpiled. Walsh did it back in the 80's but there were fewer teams and more rounds in the draft back then. There was no free agency but you usually overpay for free agents. The draft is still the best way to build with free agency used to fill one or two positions.

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
A team has to have decent or good personnel to start with for them to go from the bottom to the SB in 2-3 years. If all you need is a QB, a couple of receivers or a defensive playmaker to pull the D together it can happen. So can making a coaching change. When you need almost an entire rebuild it is a lot harder unless you really have a lot of high draft picks stockpiled. Walsh did it back in the 80's but there were fewer teams and more rounds in the draft back then. There was no free agency but you usually overpay for free agents. The draft is still the best way to build with free agency used to fill one or two positions.

Good analysis.

Expansion made it more difficult because the incoming talent gets spread around a lot more teams. Even though the league is set up for mediocrity, it doesn't make it any easier to catch up to the really good teams.

Another thing that makes the rebuild more difficult is the fact that the college game is generally quite different than the pros. Air Raid offenses dominate the college landscape and very little of that translates into the pros. DBs would be somewhat of an exception, however offensive linemen would offset that. The proof of that is to look around the league and see how few teams have a really good OL.

All of that, plus INJURIES, makes prognostication a less-than-scientific exercise.

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
A team has to have decent or good personnel to start with for them to go from the bottom to the SB in 2-3 years. If all you need is a QB, a couple of receivers or a defensive playmaker to pull the D together it can happen. So can making a coaching change. When you need almost an entire rebuild it is a lot harder unless you really have a lot of high draft picks stockpiled. Walsh did it back in the 80's but there were fewer teams and more rounds in the draft back then. There was no free agency but you usually overpay for free agents. The draft is still the best way to build with free agency used to fill one or two positions.

2012, the Kansas City Chiefs went 2-14. I wrote at the time on my friend's blog that that would be a good place for Alex. Sounds mean, right? No, the Chiefs had talent. They had guys like Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry. They played several close games against good teams, including an OT loss to the Steelers in Pittsburgh. What they didn't have was a QB. Their starter was not NFL level.

Andy Reid arrives, a huge upgrade at HC, and he goes out and trades for Alex first thing. Boom! The Chiefs go 11-5 in 2013. New HC. New QB. That was essentially the overnight "rebuild".

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
You need a better rebuild plan than this. Shanny and Lynch have a 7 years rebuilt plan. Other teams can go from bottom to the Super Bowl in 2 - 3 years. But not us. Not the 49ers under current management.

Just for the sake of accountability, how many teams have gone from the bottom to the Super Bowl in 3 years or less? Bottom being 2 wins or less.

Just off the top of my head the Carolina Panthers went from 1 - 15 to the Super Bowl. That was 2001 - 2003. 2 years time total.

So, for the sake of comparison let's look at all teams' worst record years and then how they did 2 years later. The season before Kyle and John took over was tied for the worst season performance in team history(2-14, also in 2004). So, for the sake of fairness let's see how teams did 2 years after their worst year.

Buffalo Bills - 1971, 1-13. 1973, 9-5

Miami Dolphins 2007, 1-15. 2009 7-9

NE Patriots 1990 1-15, 1992, 2-14

NY Jets 1996 1-15, 1998 12-4

Baltimore Ravens 2007 5-11, 2009 9-7

Cincinattie Bengals 2002, 2-14, 2004, 8-8

Cleveland Browns 1993, 3-13(didn't include the 0-16 season because this year will be 2 years removed from that), 1995, 5-11

Steelers 1969, 1-13, 1970, 5-9

Houston Texans 2002, 4-12, 2004, 7-9

IND Colts 1981, 2-14, 1983, 7-9

Jaguars 2012, 2-14, 2014, 3-13

Titans 2014, 2-14, 2016, 9-7

Broncos 1966, 4-10, 1968, 5-9

Kansas City Chiefs 2012, 2-14, 2014, 9-7

Chargers 2000, 1-15, 2002, 8-8

Oakland Raiders 2014, 3-13, 2016, 12-4

Cowboys 1989, 1-15, 1991, 11-5

NY Giants 1966, 1-12-1, 1968, 7-7

Eagles 1971, 2-11-1, 1973, 5-8-1

Washington Redskins 2013, 3-13, 2015, 9-7

Chicago Bears 1975, 4-10, 1977, 9-5

Detroit Lions 2008, 0-16, 2010, 6-10

GB Packers 1986, 4-12, 1988, 4-12

Vikings 1984, 3-13, 1986, 9-7

Falcons 1967, 1-12-1, 6-8

Carolina Panthers 2001, 1-15, 2003, 11-5

Saints 1980, 1-15, 1982, 4-5

Bucs 1976, 0-14, 1978, 5-11

Cardinals 2000, 3-13, 2002, 5-11

Rams 2009, 1-15, 2011, 2-14

Seahawks 2009, 5-11, 2011, 7-9

So, in summary, in the history of the NFL and the records 2 years after each franchises worst record years, there have been 11 out of 32 teams have winning records. There have been 0 SB wins. 12 out of 32 teams have had 5 wins or less 2 years removed from their worst season. Only 4 times in the history of the NFL have teams gone from their worst season to more than 10 wins in only 2 years.

4 times......

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:

You need a better rebuild plan than this. Shanny and Lynch have a 7 years rebuilt plan. Other teams can go from bottom to the Super Bowl in 2 - 3 years. But not us. Not the 49ers under current management.

Just for the sake of accountability, how many teams have gone from the bottom to the Super Bowl in 3 years or less? Bottom being 2 wins or less.

Just off the top of my head the Carolina Panthers went from 1 - 15 to the Super Bowl. That was 2001 - 2003. 2 years time total.

So, for the sake of comparison let's look at all teams' worst record years and then how they did 2 years later. The season before Kyle and John took over was tied for the worst season performance in team history(2-14, also in 2004). So, for the sake of fairness let's see how teams did 2 years after their worst year.

Buffalo Bills - 1971, 1-13. 1973, 9-5

Miami Dolphins 2007, 1-15. 2009 7-9

NE Patriots 1990 1-15, 1992, 2-14

NY Jets 1996 1-15, 1998 12-4

Baltimore Ravens 2007 5-11, 2009 9-7

Cincinattie Bengals 2002, 2-14, 2004, 8-8

Cleveland Browns 1993, 3-13(didn't include the 0-16 season because this year will be 2 years removed from that), 1995, 5-11

Steelers 1969, 1-13, 1970, 5-9

Houston Texans 2002, 4-12, 2004, 7-9

IND Colts 1981, 2-14, 1983, 7-9

Jaguars 2012, 2-14, 2014, 3-13

Titans 2014, 2-14, 2016, 9-7

Broncos 1966, 4-10, 1968, 5-9

Kansas City Chiefs 2012, 2-14, 2014, 9-7

Chargers 2000, 1-15, 2002, 8-8

Oakland Raiders 2014, 3-13, 2016, 12-4

Cowboys 1989, 1-15, 1991, 11-5

NY Giants 1966, 1-12-1, 1968, 7-7

Eagles 1971, 2-11-1, 1973, 5-8-1

Washington Redskins 2013, 3-13, 2015, 9-7

Chicago Bears 1975, 4-10, 1977, 9-5

Detroit Lions 2008, 0-16, 2010, 6-10

GB Packers 1986, 4-12, 1988, 4-12

Vikings 1984, 3-13, 1986, 9-7

Falcons 1967, 1-12-1, 6-8

Carolina Panthers 2001, 1-15, 2003, 11-5

Saints 1980, 1-15, 1982, 4-5

Bucs 1976, 0-14, 1978, 5-11

Cardinals 2000, 3-13, 2002, 5-11

Rams 2009, 1-15, 2011, 2-14

Seahawks 2009, 5-11, 2011, 7-9

So, in summary, in the history of the NFL and the records 2 years after each franchises worst record years, there have been 11 out of 32 teams have winning records. There have been 0 SB wins. 12 out of 32 teams have had 5 wins or less 2 years removed from their worst season. Only 4 times in the history of the NFL have teams gone from their worst season to more than 10 wins in only 2 years.

4 times......

Straight up facts. Love it.

If we win 10+ this year, we will be just the fifth team in the NFL's 100 year history to do it after a franchise-worst finish 2 years prior. We have the potential, but we also need to consider the data. I think the more reasonable expectation or hope is 9-7.

I'm happy with the direction of the franchise and I love some of the potential I see, but there's still a lot of work to do and I believe we're a year or two away. So I'm going with a boring realist prediction:

7 - 9

Originally posted by jonnydel:
So, for the sake of comparison let's look at all teams' worst record years and then how they did 2 years later. The season before Kyle and John took over was tied for the worst season performance in team history(2-14, also in 2004). So, for the sake of fairness let's see how teams did 2 years after their worst year.

Buffalo Bills - 1971, 1-13. 1973, 9-5

Miami Dolphins 2007, 1-15. 2009 7-9

NE Patriots 1990 1-15, 1992, 2-14

NY Jets 1996 1-15, 1998 12-4

Baltimore Ravens 2007 5-11, 2009 9-7

Cincinattie Bengals 2002, 2-14, 2004, 8-8

Cleveland Browns 1993, 3-13(didn't include the 0-16 season because this year will be 2 years removed from that), 1995, 5-11

Steelers 1969, 1-13, 1970, 5-9

Houston Texans 2002, 4-12, 2004, 7-9

IND Colts 1981, 2-14, 1983, 7-9

Jaguars 2012, 2-14, 2014, 3-13

Titans 2014, 2-14, 2016, 9-7

Broncos 1966, 4-10, 1968, 5-9

Kansas City Chiefs 2012, 2-14, 2014, 9-7

Chargers 2000, 1-15, 2002, 8-8

Oakland Raiders 2014, 3-13, 2016, 12-4

Cowboys 1989, 1-15, 1991, 11-5

NY Giants 1966, 1-12-1, 1968, 7-7

Eagles 1971, 2-11-1, 1973, 5-8-1

Washington Redskins 2013, 3-13, 2015, 9-7

Chicago Bears 1975, 4-10, 1977, 9-5

Detroit Lions 2008, 0-16, 2010, 6-10

GB Packers 1986, 4-12, 1988, 4-12

Vikings 1984, 3-13, 1986, 9-7

Falcons 1967, 1-12-1, 6-8

Carolina Panthers 2001, 1-15, 2003, 11-5

Saints 1980, 1-15, 1982, 4-5

Bucs 1976, 0-14, 1978, 5-11

Cardinals 2000, 3-13, 2002, 5-11

Rams 2009, 1-15, 2011, 2-14

Seahawks 2009, 5-11, 2011, 7-9

So, in summary, in the history of the NFL and the records 2 years after each franchises worst record years, there have been 11 out of 32 teams have winning records. There have been 0 SB wins. 12 out of 32 teams have had 5 wins or less 2 years removed from their worst season. Only 4 times in the history of the NFL have teams gone from their worst season to more than 10 wins in only 2 years.

4 times......

Geez.....who was the piece of s**t coach in Cleveland from 1991-95. I'll tell you this much...was under .500 his first 3 years and only had 1 winning season. That guy will never amount to anything in this league.....Mark. My. Words.

Also for us

1978 2-14
1979 2-14
1980 6-10

Always forget how this one turned out....probably should have fired that guy with an 8-24 record in his first 2 years. Kind of seems like that bum in Cleveland in the early 90's

9-7 if we can finally break the streak the cardinals have on us. If not....

Originally posted by Niners816:

Originally posted by jonnydel:
So, for the sake of comparison let's look at all teams' worst record years and then how they did 2 years later. The season before Kyle and John took over was tied for the worst season performance in team history(2-14, also in 2004). So, for the sake of fairness let's see how teams did 2 years after their worst year.

Buffalo Bills - 1971, 1-13. 1973, 9-5

Miami Dolphins 2007, 1-15. 2009 7-9

NE Patriots 1990 1-15, 1992, 2-14

NY Jets 1996 1-15, 1998 12-4

Baltimore Ravens 2007 5-11, 2009 9-7

Cincinattie Bengals 2002, 2-14, 2004, 8-8

Cleveland Browns 1993, 3-13(didn't include the 0-16 season because this year will be 2 years removed from that), 1995, 5-11

Steelers 1969, 1-13, 1970, 5-9

Houston Texans 2002, 4-12, 2004, 7-9

IND Colts 1981, 2-14, 1983, 7-9

Jaguars 2012, 2-14, 2014, 3-13

Titans 2014, 2-14, 2016, 9-7

Broncos 1966, 4-10, 1968, 5-9

Kansas City Chiefs 2012, 2-14, 2014, 9-7

Chargers 2000, 1-15, 2002, 8-8

Oakland Raiders 2014, 3-13, 2016, 12-4

Cowboys 1989, 1-15, 1991, 11-5

NY Giants 1966, 1-12-1, 1968, 7-7

Eagles 1971, 2-11-1, 1973, 5-8-1

Washington Redskins 2013, 3-13, 2015, 9-7

Chicago Bears 1975, 4-10, 1977, 9-5

Detroit Lions 2008, 0-16, 2010, 6-10

GB Packers 1986, 4-12, 1988, 4-12

Vikings 1984, 3-13, 1986, 9-7

Falcons 1967, 1-12-1, 6-8

Carolina Panthers 2001, 1-15, 2003, 11-5

Saints 1980, 1-15, 1982, 4-5

Bucs 1976, 0-14, 1978, 5-11

Cardinals 2000, 3-13, 2002, 5-11

Rams 2009, 1-15, 2011, 2-14

Seahawks 2009, 5-11, 2011, 7-9

So, in summary, in the history of the NFL and the records 2 years after each franchises worst record years, there have been 11 out of 32 teams have winning records. There have been 0 SB wins. 12 out of 32 teams have had 5 wins or less 2 years removed from their worst season. Only 4 times in the history of the NFL have teams gone from their worst season to more than 10 wins in only 2 years.

4 times......

Geez.....who was the piece of s**t coach in Cleveland from 1991-95. I'll tell you this much...was under .500 his first 3 years and only had 1 winning season. That guy will never amount to anything in this league.....Mark. My. Words.

Also for us

1978 2-14
1979 2-14
1980 6-10

Always forget how this one turned out....probably should have fired that guy with an 8-24 record in his first 2 years. Kind of seems like that bum in Cleveland in the early 90's

I see what you did there.

Just in case no one has figured it out yet, that was Bill Bellichick......

Originally posted by jonnydel:

I see what you did there.

Just in case no one has figured it out yet, that was Bill Bellichick......

Will never be anything more than Parcell's DC.......

I just don't think he'll be able to put together a good staff.....(google 1995 Cleveland Brown's coaching staff....make it the 1994 staff. Wee bit better)

So here is the deal. If the Niners could stay healthy for say, a season, I would have greater confidence about our prospects. This really feels like a 6-10 or 10-6 season. Put me down for both.

We will soon see who has a better grasp on reality, the chronic skeptics, or the optimists.

For me, it's the several factors for success that cause me to believe that the sum is greater than the parts ( Since, 10 and 6 prediction.)

For this upcoming season, the team has :

• An excellent working relationship between the head coach and the GM, who have made several key additions by free agency and draft.
• The best young coach in the league.
• A state-of-the-art offensive system.
• A reloaded roster of key players, that are now coming online, who fit the system well.
• A team that has more depth in most of the squads.
• A capable, competent assistant coaching staff.
• Apparently, pretty good morale in the locker room and support for the coaching staff.

To me, if you see these factors present in any given team, that team will be a winner.
This is why I believe the optimists will be vindicated.

Or not.

We will soon find out.