Race for the nfc west and the #1 seed

Originally posted by hondakillerzx:

Originally posted by Kolohe:
Awww the Seahawks thought they were #1 in the NFC, oh that's so cute.

these douchebags are lucky we missed a f**kin kick. some of these guys up here were talking s**t like they beat our ass lol. I cant wait til week 17. we need to demoralize them before the playoffs so they can lose to Dallas and we smack those sorry b*****ds afterwards

I'd love nothing more than these cawkSuckers losing to Panthers while we win out...rest starters, back ups beat em in their house

The best plausible case scenario: 1. Niners, 2. Green Bay, 3. New Orleans, 4. Dallas, 5. Seattle, 6. Vikings

Green Bay has the tiebreaker vs New Orleans. The Saints are the most dangerous team in the NFC other than the Niners, it would be nice if they didn't have the bye and were forced to play in Lambeau.

The Rams have the tiebreaker vs the Vikings and the Packers, but both teams have easy schedules other than the game they play vs each other -- and the Packers have to play at Minnesota. But the Packers have the tiebreaker vs Minnesota

New Orleans has a road game vs Tennessee next week. The Titans play Houston this week and they pretty much have to win that because they lose tiebreakers to both Pittsburgh and Buffalo for the wildcard. Let's hope they beat Houston so they're extra motivated vs New Orleans. If NO drops that game, they are unlikely to have a bye due to Green Bay's cake schedule for the remainder of the year outside of their game against the Vikings.

I feel like Dallas could beat Seattle in the Wild Card round. Philly can't do the same. Dallas has talent on offense and they have mismatches vs that Seattle D. I'd like Seattle to get knocked out in the first round. Then we'd have the opportunity to beat down Dallas in the divisional.

Saints have an away game at the smoking hot Titans in a couple weeks. Minnesota/Packers still play each other. Should get interesting.

I think Dallas is going to lose to the Rams this week. Dallas got smacked around by Buffalo and looked terrible vs Chicago.

Dallas also doesn't really have to have that game. They've already beat Philly and they play them next week. They finish up at home vs the Redskins. Philly has an easy schedule other than that Dallas game -- though Philly is really bad themselves and could lose at Washington this week. If Dallas loses to Philly but the teams otherwise end up with the same record, Dallas has the tiebreaker.

I feel adulterous in saying this, but Dallas beating the Rams this week would be nice. It doesn't knock the Rams out of the playoffs, but they'll pretty much be out and they'll know it - barring the Vikings or Packers unexpectedly losing this week. Makes the Week 16 game against them easier while we're trying to get healthy.

Seattle dancing in the endzone after they their short stint for #1. Hope they didn't put too much time into that routine that lasted all of 1 week.

*IF* the Seahawks drop one of their next two games (vs. Carolina, vs. Arizona) AND the Niners win their next two...the Niners will have locked up the #1 seed even if they rest players and lose vs. Seattle. They hold the tie-break vs. GB and NO.

I would not consider Seattle a lock in either of those games, although they are the obvious favorite. Their defense is a real concern. And crazy stuff happens in division games.

Originally posted by okdkid:
*IF* the Seahawks drop one of their next two games (vs. Carolina, vs. Arizona) AND the Niners win their next two...the Niners will have locked up the #1 seed even if they rest players and lose vs. Seattle. They hold the tie-break vs. GB and NO.

I would not consider Seattle a lock in either of those games, although they are the obvious favorite. Their defense is a real concern. And crazy stuff happens in division games.

Hell, after their showing against the Rams, their offense is a real concern too.

That being said, I'm sure Wilson and co. will right the ship there, but I am hoping they won't.

Here are the relevant games this coming week (didn't include NFC East, because someone will win and it has no bearing on anything else):

Bears @ Packers (-4.5)
--- If the Bears lose, they are eliminated. Packers lose, they stay at #2 or fall to #3 seed (depending on Saints).
Seahawks @ Panthers (+6)
--- If the Seahawks lose, they potentially fall to #6 seed, depending on Packers/Vikings outcome. If they win, they could be #1, #2, #3, or #5 depending on other results.
Vikings @ Chargers (+2.5)
--- If the Vikings win, they eliminate the Bears. If they lose, either the Vikings or Rams will be #6 seed.
Falcons @ 49ers (-11)
--- If the 49ers win, they keep #1 seed. If they lose, they could be #1 or #5 seed (depending on Seahawks).
Rams @ Cowboys (even)
--- If the Rams lose, they're either 1 or 2 games out of #6 spot, but still technically alive. If they win, they're either 1 game out or tied with Vikings for #6.
Colts @ Saints (-9)
--- If the Saints win, they either stay at #3 or go to #2 (depending on Packers). If they lose, they're pretty much locked into the #3 spot.

Hopefully the Rams are eliminated this weekend, so our game next week has much less meaning for them.

Originally posted by NinerBuff:
Hopefully the Rams are eliminated this weekend, so our game next week has much less meaning for them.

I don't think they can be eliminated this weekend, even if they do lose.

If the Rams lose and Vikings win, Rams can still be the #6 seed, as the Rams (8-6) would still be within 2 games of the Vikings (10-4).

GO PANTHERS!!!!!!

Originally posted by captveg:

Originally posted by NinerBuff:

Hopefully the Rams are eliminated this weekend, so our game next week has much less meaning for them.

I don't think they can be eliminated this weekend, even if they do lose.

If the Rams lose and Vikings win, Rams can still be the #6 seed, as the Rams (8-6) would still be within 2 games of the Vikings (10-4).

You're right, technically the Rams are not eliminated this weekend regardless of what happens, because in the scenario where the Vikings win this weekend and lose out afterwards and the Rams lose this weekend and win out, the rams would make it...

10-6 Rams (7-5 NFC, 4-2 NFCW)
10-6 Vikings (7-5 NFC, 2-4 NFCN)

According to ActionNetwork Predictive Machine (Link):

Our model — which simulates the rest of the season 10,000 times — gives the 49ers the best chance of finishing as the No. 1 seed (73.7%) while the Seahawks are down to a 13.8% chance.

. San Francisco 49ers

• Chance to make playoffs: 100.00%
• Chance to win division: 76.10%
• Chance to finish as 1-seed: 73.7%
• Chance to get first-round bye: 75.8%
• Chance to win Super Bowl: 20.30%

Interesting that out of 10,000 simulations, none of them had the Niners missing the playoffs, even though it technically can still happen.

Originally posted by NinerBuff:

Originally posted by captveg:

Originally posted by NinerBuff:
Hopefully the Rams are eliminated this weekend, so our game next week has much less meaning for them.

I don't think they can be eliminated this weekend, even if they do lose.

If the Rams lose and Vikings win, Rams can still be the #6 seed, as the Rams (8-6) would still be within 2 games of the Vikings (10-4).

You're right, technically the Rams are not eliminated this weekend regardless of what happens, because in the scenario where the Vikings win this weekend and lose out afterwards and the Rams lose this weekend and win out, the rams would make it...

10-6 Rams (7-5 NFC, 4-2 NFCW)
10-6 Vikings (7-5 NFC, 2-4 NFCN)

Divisional records mean nothing for wildcard berths when judging teams from different divisions.
It would come down to:

Head-to-head: N/A, Vikes didn't play Rams
Conference record: Even, as you wrote
Common games, minimum of 4: N/A, they'll only have 3 common games
Strength of Victory: It might be too early to judge, as teams' final records aren't yet determined. However, the Vikes SoV to date is dismal (they say WE haven't played anybody, get a load of the Vikes schedule)

So on the surface, the Rams would win any tiebreak between them and the Vikes (though it's probably too early to say for certain with SoV). So the Vikes must finish with the better W-L record.

Originally posted by RTFirefly:
Divisional records mean nothing for wildcard berths when judging teams from different divisions.
It would come down to:

Head-to-head: N/A, Vikes didn't play Rams
Conference record: Even, as you wrote
Common games, minimum of 4: N/A, they'll only have 3 common games
Strength of Victory: It might be too early to judge, as teams' final records aren't yet determined. However, the Vikes SoV to date is dismal (they say WE haven't played anybody, get a load of the Vikes schedule)

So on the surface, the Rams would win any tiebreak between them and the Vikes (though it's probably too early to say for certain with SoV). So the Vikes must finish with the better W-L record.

I have run a number of scenarios on ESPN's playoff machine to the extent that it's embarrassing to admit the amount of time I've spent on it. Everything I see points to the Rams having the tiebreaker vs the Vikings and Packers -- they don't appear to have it vs the Seahawks (which probably doesn't matter).

We're going to find out quite a bit this week with the Rams playing at the Cowboys and Vikings playing at the Chargers. The Vikings could conceivably lose to the Chargers, and/or they could lose at home vs the Packers. They're not likely to lose to the Bears at home in Week 17. But if the Vikings win this week and the Rams lose, the chance the Vikings drop two straight games at home to finish out the year is really not great.

TBH, I really think the Rams may beat the Cowboys this week. They're significantly better coached and they appear to be fairly healthy. It appears as if the sharps in Vegas have been betting the Rams.