Race for the nfc west and the #1 seed

Originally posted by ColorMeBaddFan:

Originally posted by RTFirefly:
Divisional records mean nothing for wildcard berths when judging teams from different divisions.
It would come down to:

Head-to-head: N/A, Vikes didn't play Rams
Conference record: Even, as you wrote
Common games, minimum of 4: N/A, they'll only have 3 common games
Strength of Victory: It might be too early to judge, as teams' final records aren't yet determined. However, the Vikes SoV to date is dismal (they say WE haven't played anybody, get a load of the Vikes schedule)

So on the surface, the Rams would win any tiebreak between them and the Vikes (though it's probably too early to say for certain with SoV). So the Vikes must finish with the better W-L record.

I have run a number of scenarios on ESPN's playoff machine to the extent that it's embarrassing to admit the amount of time I've spent on it. Everything I see points to the Rams having the tiebreaker vs the Vikings and Packers -- they don't appear to have it vs the Seahawks (which probably doesn't matter).

We're going to find out quite a bit this week with the Rams playing at the Cowboys and Vikings playing at the Chargers. The Vikings could conceivably lose to the Chargers, and/or they could lose at home vs the Packers. They're not likely to lose to the Bears at home in Week 17. But if the Vikings win this week and the Rams lose, the chance the Vikings drop two straight games at home to finish out the year is really not great.

TBH, I really think the Rams may beat the Cowboys this week. They're significantly better coached and they appear to be fairly healthy. It appears as if the sharps in Vegas have been betting the Rams.

The Rams should crush the Cowboys, but neither team is consistent enough to say anything with confidence.

I'll just say that I wouldn't write off that Bears@Vikes game yet. Trubs has played 3 good games in a row, actually looking like a QBOTF. With the Bears D, that could make them a bit of a force. The flip side, of course, is that Trub's 3 straight good games were close ones against the Giants and Lions, then that better game against the collapsing Cowboys.

Originally posted by RTFirefly:
The Rams should crush the Cowboys, but neither team is consistent enough to say anything with confidence.

I'll just say that I wouldn't write off that Bears@Vikes game yet. Trubs has played 3 good games in a row, actually looking like a QBOTF. With the Bears D, that could make them a bit of a force. The flip side, of course, is that Trub's 3 straight good games were close ones against the Giants and Lions, then that better game against the collapsing Cowboys.

I really don't want the Bears to beat the Packers this week. Getting the #1 seed combined with the Packers getting the #2 would be a gift. New Orleans having to go up to Lambeau would put that game in question even though New Orleans is the far superior team. Imagine Dallas beating the Seahawks in Round 1 (I think it's bad matchup for the Seahawks), so we then get Dallas in the divisional round and then seeing the Packers beat the Saints at Lambeau.

On top of all of this, LaMar Jackson has a quad injury. That's the issue with running QBs-- once they're not a peak athleticism, they often become very limited if their passing game hasn't similarly evolved, particular when Greg Roman is your offensive coordinator.

Originally posted by da209:

Originally posted by Fresno49er:

we havent been talking about the playoffs like this for half a decade. Man it feels good!

me:
when the niners are the #1 seed after seahawks lost


me if the niners lose for some damn reason to the Falcons,Rams or Hawks.

Not saying its going to happen, but lets say if we lose out and the rams/hawks win out are we still in the playoffs?

Originally posted by DRCHOWDER:

Not saying its going to happen, but lets say if we lose out and the rams/hawks win out are we still in the playoffs?

I think for rams to make it they need to win out + have minny lose either 1-2 games at home

Originally posted by DRCHOWDER:

Not saying its going to happen, but lets say if we lose out and the rams/hawks win out are we still in the playoffs?

There is a chance we can miss the playoffs, but for reference, the playoff prediction machine was run 10,000 and none of them has us missing the playoffs. So I guess it's <0.01% chance

Originally posted by Mertonschickendance:

Originally posted by DRCHOWDER:
Not saying its going to happen, but lets say if we lose out and the rams/hawks win out are we still in the playoffs?

I think for rams to make it they need to win out + have minny lose either 1-2 games at home

no i'm saying what happens to us if we lose out and the rams win out, we'll both be at 11-5 and tied 1-1 in division games. Are we out of the playoffs, wildcard ??

Originally posted by Mertonschickendance:

Originally posted by DRCHOWDER:
Not saying its going to happen, but lets say if we lose out and the rams/hawks win out are we still in the playoffs?

I think for rams to make it they need to win out + have minny lose either 1-2 games at home

Would also depend on how the #2 team in the NFC North finishes for that other WC spot.

In 1991 we finished 10-6 and missed the playoffs. I believe that was the only time and we've never finished 11-5 or better and missed. Its possible but not all that likely.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

So running the simulator if we lose all of our games, vikings win all, packers win all minus the vikings game, rams win all, seahawks win all then we are out

...actually if the Vikings beat the packers and lose one more we are also out as long as the rest happens above. So not making the playoffs is pretty unlikely.

Edit: One more correction. If the seahawks lose the rest in this scenario but beat us then we are also out.

So our current odds of making the playoffs stand at 99%

If we beat Seattle and win one of the other two games, we finish with the #1 seed.

Originally posted by Niners_D:
If we beat Seattle and win one of the other two games, we finish with the #1 seed.

In my opinion it's this or bust for the 49ers. I simply dont see us getting to the superbowl as a 5 seed as banged up as we are.

Originally posted by Niners_D:
http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Originally posted by Niners_D:
...actually if the Vikings beat the packers and lose one more we are also out as long as the rest happens above. So not making the playoffs is pretty unlikely.

Edit: One more correction. If the seahawks lose the rest in this scenario but beat us then we are also out.

So our current odds of making the playoffs stand at 99%

thanks~!

I ran the machine and the only way we don't make the playoffs is if the packers lose @ vikings and lions lose to packers. I could be wrong though.