Race for the nfc west and the #1 seed

Originally posted by ColorMeBaddFan:

Originally posted by TheRickestRick:
The teams they beat out of division which we didnt play have a better record than the teams we beat and they didnt play. We need GB and Washington to win they need Philly and Minn to win. They have the edge right now.

But we beat New Orleans. Supposedly ESPN's playoff machine has an issue with the common games tiebreaker.

I ran this scenario the other day where we both end up at 12-4. If GB, Minnesota and New Orleans also both end up 12-4, then we still get the #1 seed.

Where it gets close is how the Eagles, Falcons and Redskins play. Basically I ran who was most likely favored in the remaining games and the teams the Niners beat totaled 90 wins vs something like 87 for the Seahawks.

Then thats my bad. Seemed like the past week it was always GB & Wash Vs Minn & Philly.

Surprisingly drowning my b*tching in bourbon is working, another couple drinks and Ill be back in that silver lining thread.

So if we win against la and seatle (assuming seatle beats arizonA) then we are 1 seed?

Originally posted by mattster03:
That's not my understanding of how it works. I believe it's final standings of these teams not if you beat them or not. In which case NO and ATL are not a factor because they are common opponents.

Let's assume we lose to the Rams and beat the Seahawks (and the Seahawks beat the Cardinals), I believe the tiebreaker would go like this:

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs). 49ers and Seahawks TIED 1-1, move to 2
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. 49ers and Seahawks TIED 4-2, move to 3
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. 49ers and Seahawks TIED 10-4, move to 4
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. 49ers and Seahawks TIED 9-3, move to 5
5. Strength of victory. 49ers and Seahawks beat the same teams, except 49ers beat GB, NO and Washington and the Seahawks beat Philly, Minn and ATL. The Win-Loss record between these two sets of teams is the tiebreaker
6. Strength of schedule. IRRELEVANT, see above (assuming that GB, NO and Washington combined don't have the same record as Philly, Minn and ATL combined, in which case strength of schedule comes into play).
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

Originally posted by mattster03:

Originally posted by Aporia88:

Originally posted by TheRickestRick:

The teams they beat out of division which we didnt play have a better record than the teams we beat and they didnt play. We need GB and Washington to win they need Philly and Minn to win. They have the edge right now.

You are forgetting our win vs. the Saints. Its GB, NO and Washington vs. Philly, Minn and ATL. We are more likely to win that tiebreaker as of today.

That's not my understanding of how it works. I believe it's final standings of these teams not if you beat them or not. In which case NO and ATL are not a factor because they are common opponents.

Beat Rams and Seattle = #1 Seed

Beat Rams and lose to Seattle = #5th or #6th depending on tie breaker with Vikings

Lose to Rams and beat Seattle = #1 seed if win strength of victory tie breaker or #5th/6th seed depending on tie breaker with Vikings

Lose to Rams and Seahawks = most likely 6th seed

Remember, we are 3-3 in last 6 games.

Originally posted by Aporia88:

Originally posted by mattster03:

That's not my understanding of how it works. I believe it's final standings of these teams not if you beat them or not. In which case NO and ATL are not a factor because they are common opponents.

Let's assume we lose to the Rams and beat the Seahawks (and the Seahawks beat the Cardinals), I believe the tiebreaker would go like this:

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs). 49ers and Seahawks TIED 1-1, move to 2
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. 49ers and Seahawks TIED 4-2, move to 3
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. 49ers and Seahawks TIED 10-4, move to 4
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. 49ers and Seahawks TIED 9-3, move to 5
5. Strength of victory. 49ers and Seahawks beat the same teams, except 49ers beat GB, NO and Washington and the Seahawks beat Philly, Minn and ATL. The Win-Loss record between these teams is the tiebreaker
6. Strength of schedule. IRRELEVANT, see above.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

Is there any legitimacy to this?

2 weeks
2 games
2 division rivals
One home
One away

We lost to the hapless Falcons. Beat the SB favorite Saints. Thrashed an 11-3 Packers team. Lost to a division of rival in the Seahawks. Based on this, I think all stats go out the window.

Our season will be defined over the next two weeks. As most pundits have claimed, a rested Niners team with home field will be a tough outing for most teams. However a banged up 49ers team limping into the playoffs...well, it'll be pretty much impossible to beat Dallas, then New Orleans, then Seattle all on the road.

If this team is SB championship worthy, we will know in two weeks.

What say you ?!

Originally posted by Aporia88:
Let's assume we lose to the Rams and beat the Seahawks (and the Seahawks beat the Cardinals), I believe the tiebreaker would go like this:

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs). 49ers and Seahawks TIED 1-1, move to 2
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. 49ers and Seahawks TIED 4-2, move to 3
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. 49ers and Seahawks TIED 10-4, move to 4
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. 49ers and Seahawks TIED 9-3, move to 5
5. Strength of victory. 49ers and Seahawks beat the same teams, except 49ers beat GB, NO and Washington and the Seahawks beat Philly, Minn and ATL. The Win-Loss record between these two sets of teams is the tiebreaker
6. Strength of schedule. IRRELEVANT, see above.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

Yeah well we would have to go into Seattle and win. A place we seem to go decades without being able to in BIG GAMES. The way this team is playing now at the end of the year. What are the odds of that? Not very good I would say.

I say, win the games.

We"re beat up and tired but we have control of our own destiny. Have to get it done.

Originally posted by ComeOnDeberg:
Beat Rams and Seattle = #1 Seed

Beat Rams and lose to Seattle = #5th or #6th depending on tie breaker with Vikings

Lose to Rams and beat Seattle = #1 seed if win strength of victory tie breaker or #5th/6th seed depending on tie breaker with Vikings

Lose to Rams and Seahawks = most likely 6th seed

Remember, we are 3-3 in last 6 games.

Thats really the most worrisome part. We were supposed to be getting healthy and peaking yet getting more injured and the guys that were supposed to come back to help us peak arent up to their previous form. Its the toughest stretch of the schedule by far but its not going to be any easier in the playoffs. I got confidence in beating the cowboys if we fall to from #1 but after that... not so much.

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
Yeah well we would have to go into Seattle and win. A place we seem to go decades without being able to in BIG GAMES. The way this team is playing now at the end of the year. What are the odds of that? Not very good I would say.

I hear you, but we were going to have to beat the Seahawks in Seattle to win the division whether we beat the Falcons or not today, unless the Cardinals pulled off a huge upset next week.

Originally posted by genus49:

I say, win the games.

We"re beat up and tired but we have control of our own destiny. Have to get it done.

Will have some players back next week.
Hopefully close to full force vs Seattle (minus DFord).

Heads up men. We are still in it.

Originally posted by DrEll:

2 weeks
2 games
2 division rivals
One home
One away

We lost to the hapless Falcons. Beat the SB favorite Saints. Thrashed an 11-3 Packers team. Lost to a division of rival in the Seahawks. Based on this, I think all stats go out the window.

Our season will be defined over the next two weeks. As most pundits have claimed, a rested Niners team with home field will be a tough outing for most teams. However a banged up 49ers team limping into the playoffs...well, it'll be pretty much impossible to beat Dallas, then New Orleans, then Seattle all on the road.

If this team is SB championship worthy, we will know in two weeks.

What say you ?!

Impossible? No. Probable? No. The 49ers have a tough road. But in this league you just never know. Show up each week and give it 100% which I believe they will. The games will most likely all be in reach either way. 3 last second losses are not as much of the problem than the injuries. Ford, Sherman, tartt, and Williams are needed healthy in a bad way. And losing a center this late in the season is devastating.

Originally posted by TheRickestRick:

Originally posted by ComeOnDeberg:

Beat Rams and Seattle = #1 Seed

Beat Rams and lose to Seattle = #5th or #6th depending on tie breaker with Vikings

Lose to Rams and beat Seattle = #1 seed if win strength of victory tie breaker or #5th/6th seed depending on tie breaker with Vikings

Lose to Rams and Seahawks = most likely 6th seed

Remember, we are 3-3 in last 6 games.

Thats really the most worrisome part. We were supposed to be getting healthy and peaking yet getting more injured and the guys that were supposed to come back to help us peak arent up to their previous form. Its the toughest stretch of the schedule by far but its not going to be any easier in the playoffs. I got confidence in beating the cowboys if we fall to from #1 but after that... not so much.

3-3 beating two Div leaders and losing on the last play of the game in all three losses...... The losses this year dont bother me (this one a little bit) its the injuries that are becoming crippling to this years team.

One game at a time, the Rams are a dumpster fire TCOB. The Seahawks will beat you with the help of short fields, no mistakes . If we play mistake free we are the better team. Don't let it come down to the final play as in our 3 losses.