Race for the nfc west and the #1 seed

Originally posted by midrdan:

Originally posted by D0PEMAN:

Originally posted by Niners418:
What happens if seattle beats AZ then loses to us
We lose to rams but beat seattle

tie breaker goes to strength of schedule?

If we both finish 12-4 but we beat Seattle and lose to Rams:

1. 1st tiebreaker is head to head. That would be even.

2. 2nd tiebreaker is division record. We both would have 2 division losses. Even.

3. 3rd tiebreaker is conference record. We would both have 3 conference losses. Even.

4. 4th tiebreaker is non conference record. We both lost to Baltimore. Even.

5. 5th tiebreaker is winning percentage of non-common opponents. Seattle played Vikings and Eagles. We played Green Bay and Washington. Currently Seattle wins this tiebreaker because Vikings/Eagles have a higher winning percentage. But if Vikings lose to GB and Eagles lose to Dallas next week, we would be tied in this category heading into Week 17 (assuming Washington beats the Giants).

6. 6th tiebreaker is points differential. We are well ahead of Seattle.

So we are rooting for Vikings and Eagles to lose out. Washington to win a game. GB to win out.

This isn't right.

NFL divisional rival tiebreakers:
1) Head-to-head
2) Divisional record
3) Common games record, minimum of 4 games
4) Conference record
5) Strength of victory record
----------------------------------------
If Seattle beats AZ then loses to us, we lose to rams but beat Seattle then it comes down to #5 Strength of Victory, which we currently lead slightly and are in good shape - Wash, GB, NO record vs. Philly, Minn, Atl record.

A poster detailed it all accurately a page or two ago on this thread. Apologies for not having his name handy to credit him.

Originally posted by okdkid:

Originally posted by judodono:

Originally posted by okdkid:

Originally posted by judodono:
Sucks that Seattle will be able to rest up and treat the upcoming week like a bye. Fully rested at home for the visit in the last week of the season.

??

Even if you assume the Niners lose both games...the Seahawks still have to win for playoff seeding. There is no chance they view any of their two remaining divisional games as a bye.

Hope I'm wrong! But right now we're tied... so imagine 9ers win and Seattle loses. Then Seattle is a win behind the 9ers.

Given that scenario, Seattle needs to win the last week of the season and if they do, both teams will be tied for first in the NFC West. And if Seattle wins, they'll obviously take the seed.

So yeah, isn't this Cards game for them irrelevant?

No, because this isn't just about winning the division. There are four teams tied with the same record (after Saints win tonight). And Minnesota is only one game back.

Unlike the Niners...Seattle DOES NOT hold tie breakers over all of those teams. They likely need to win out to control their destiny.

awesome

i like the Cards chances to spoil

Assuming we wind up winning the Strength of Victory tiebreaker against Seattle, which is a good bet since we're leading and also have NO and GB on our side, the Rams game is meaningless for our divisional battle against Seattle. We can gain a game against the Seahawks next week, lose a game, or remain tied in overall record. It doesn't matter. It will come down to our game in Seattle no matter what.

But,
1) If we wind up losing the Strength of Victory tiebreaker to the Seahawks, then we must keep pace with the Seahawks next week. They beat the Cards, we have to beat the Rams, and;
2) Seeding battles against the Saints and Packers are a whole 'nuther fish. We need to beat the Rams and the Seahawks and we win those.

Beat the Rams and the Seahawks and we're the NFC #1 seed. Guaranteed. That's the easiest scenario.

Originally posted by RTFirefly:

Originally posted by midrdan:

Originally posted by D0PEMAN:

Originally posted by Niners418:
What happens if seattle beats AZ then loses to us
We lose to rams but beat seattle

tie breaker goes to strength of schedule?

If we both finish 12-4 but we beat Seattle and lose to Rams:

1. 1st tiebreaker is head to head. That would be even.

2. 2nd tiebreaker is division record. We both would have 2 division losses. Even.

3. 3rd tiebreaker is conference record. We would both have 3 conference losses. Even.

4. 4th tiebreaker is non conference record. We both lost to Baltimore. Even.

5. 5th tiebreaker is winning percentage of non-common opponents. Seattle played Vikings and Eagles. We played Green Bay and Washington. Currently Seattle wins this tiebreaker because Vikings/Eagles have a higher winning percentage. But if Vikings lose to GB and Eagles lose to Dallas next week, we would be tied in this category heading into Week 17 (assuming Washington beats the Giants).

6. 6th tiebreaker is points differential. We are well ahead of Seattle.

So we are rooting for Vikings and Eagles to lose out. Washington to win a game. GB to win out.

This isn't right.

NFL divisional rival tiebreakers:
1) Head-to-head
2) Divisional record
3) Common games record, minimum of 4 games
4) Conference record
5) Strength of victory record
----------------------------------------
If Seattle beats AZ then loses to us, we lose to rams but beat Seattle then it comes down to #5 Strength of Victory, which we currently lead slightly and are in good shape - Wash, GB, NO record vs. Philly, Minn, Atl record.

A poster detailed it all accurately a page or two ago on this thread. Apologies for not having his name handy to credit him.

It was captveg....titled it strength of schedule, but it was the analysis for strength of victory. The Saints and Packers wins really help, but Washington drags it down. If Atlanta keeps winning, that won't help either. It would all be moot if either Seattle loses or SF wins next week, at least for the division tie-breaker.

Originally posted by 49erBrodie70:
It was captveg....titled it strength of schedule, but it was the analysis for strength of victory. The Saints and Packers wins really help, but Washington drags it down. If Atlanta keeps winning, that won't help either. It would all be moot if either Seattle loses or SF wins next week, at least for the division tie-breaker.

Also, keep in mind NO has to play Tennessee. And GB has to play Minn.

That tie break is not a lock in the favor of the Niners.

Originally posted by judodono:
So yeah, isn't this Cards game for them irrelevant?

All teams with hpoe of #1 seed, which is is in play for SF, GB, NO, and SEA, can't take a game off.

Originally posted by okdkid:

Originally posted by 49erBrodie70:
It was captveg....titled it strength of schedule, but it was the analysis for strength of victory. The Saints and Packers wins really help, but Washington drags it down. If Atlanta keeps winning, that won't help either. It would all be moot if either Seattle loses or SF wins next week, at least for the division tie-breaker.

Also, keep in mind NO has to play Tennessee. And GB has to play Minn.

That tie break is not a lock in the favor of the Niners.

Totally agree....that's always part of the insanity when they involve multiple games still to be played....a multitude of variations as well.

We all know that if we win the next two games we get the #1 seed.

If we lose to the RAMS and beat the SEAHAWKS, it comes down to strength of victory tie breaker (combine record all the teams beaten that season). this is because head to head, division, common games, and conference tiebreakers would be the same, This record is now even at 76-90 for both teams. With two games remaining, there are only four teams that can affect the outcome - the 49ers played Washington and Green bay vs Seattle played Eagles and Vikings. The rest of the opponents are the same.

So only IF we lose the to RAMS on Saturday, we want to cheer for Packers (ironically) and Redskins the rest of the way, and against the Eagles and Vikings in the rest of the way. We won't get the #1 seed, but we can at least have chance at the division still. In week 17, we play in the afternoon, the week 17 games below will already have been played - so we will know the outcome of the strength of victory tiebreaker prior to the Seahawks game,.

Week 16:

Cowboys at Eagles - Cheer for Cowboys
Packers at Vikings - Cheer for Packers - THIS ONE IS HUGE
Giants at Redskins - Cheer for Redskins

Week 17:
Bears at Vikings - Cheer for Bears
Packers at Lions - Cheer for Packers
Redskins at Cowboys- Cheer for Redskins
Eagles at Giants - Cheer for Giants

Cheering against the Vikings also helps us get the #5 seed if we get the wildcard. No one wants play at GB, NO or Seahawks first.

Originally posted by okdkid:

Originally posted by 49erBrodie70:

It was captveg....titled it strength of schedule, but it was the analysis for strength of victory. The Saints and Packers wins really help, but Washington drags it down. If Atlanta keeps winning, that won't help either. It would all be moot if either Seattle loses or SF wins next week, at least for the division tie-breaker.

Also, keep in mind NO has to play Tennessee. And GB has to play Minn.

That tie break is not a lock in the favor of the Niners.

How are those matches not in favor of the Niners?

BEAT L.A.

BEAT L.A.

BEAT L.A.

Originally posted by 49erBrodie70:

Originally posted by RTFirefly:

Originally posted by midrdan:

Originally posted by D0PEMAN:

Originally posted by Niners418:

What happens if seattle beats AZ then loses to us
We lose to rams but beat seattle

tie breaker goes to strength of schedule?

If we both finish 12-4 but we beat Seattle and lose to Rams:

1. 1st tiebreaker is head to head. That would be even.

2. 2nd tiebreaker is division record. We both would have 2 division losses. Even.

3. 3rd tiebreaker is conference record. We would both have 3 conference losses. Even.

4. 4th tiebreaker is non conference record. We both lost to Baltimore. Even.

5. 5th tiebreaker is winning percentage of non-common opponents. Seattle played Vikings and Eagles. We played Green Bay and Washington. Currently Seattle wins this tiebreaker because Vikings/Eagles have a higher winning percentage. But if Vikings lose to GB and Eagles lose to Dallas next week, we would be tied in this category heading into Week 17 (assuming Washington beats the Giants).

6. 6th tiebreaker is points differential. We are well ahead of Seattle.

So we are rooting for Vikings and Eagles to lose out. Washington to win a game. GB to win out.

This isn't right.

NFL divisional rival tiebreakers:
1) Head-to-head
2) Divisional record
3) Common games record, minimum of 4 games
4) Conference record
5) Strength of victory record
----------------------------------------
If Seattle beats AZ then loses to us, we lose to rams but beat Seattle then it comes down to #5 Strength of Victory, which we currently lead slightly and are in good shape - Wash, GB, NO record vs. Philly, Minn, Atl record.

A poster detailed it all accurately a page or two ago on this thread. Apologies for not having his name handy to credit him.

It was captveg....titled it strength of schedule, but it was the analysis for strength of victory. The Saints and Packers wins really help, but Washington drags it down. If Atlanta keeps winning, that won't help either. It would all be moot if either Seattle loses or SF wins next week, at least for the division tie-breaker.

I agree with this analysis. But oddly enough, ESPN playoff matchup generator has Seahawks taking the higher seed in all scenarios in which we lose to the Rams and then beat the Seahawks. Seems it's wrong or am Iwe missing something?

We got to get Sherm and Ford back for the Seachickens. Can't wait.

Originally posted by Alfienator:

Originally posted by okdkid:

Originally posted by 49erBrodie70:

It was captveg....titled it strength of schedule, but it was the analysis for strength of victory. The Saints and Packers wins really help, but Washington drags it down. If Atlanta keeps winning, that won't help either. It would all be moot if either Seattle loses or SF wins next week, at least for the division tie-breaker.

Also, keep in mind NO has to play Tennessee. And GB has to play Minn.

That tie break is not a lock in the favor of the Niners.

How are those matches not in favor of the Niners?

It doesn't matter who is favored. Only the result matters. We were favored heavily yesterday and lost.

Originally posted by ComeOnDeberg:
We all know that if we win the next two games we get the #1 seed.

If we lose to the RAMS and beat the SEAHAWKS, it comes down to strength of victory tie breaker (combine record all the teams beaten that season). this is because head to head, division, common games, and conference tiebreakers would be the same, This record is now even at 76-90 for both teams. With two games remaining, there are only four teams that can affect the outcome - the 49ers played Washington and Green bay vs Seattle played Eagles and Vikings. The rest of the opponents are the same.

So only IF we lose the to RAMS on Saturday, we want to cheer for Packers (ironically) and Redskins the rest of the way, and against the Eagles and Vikings in the rest of the way. We won't get the #1 seed, but we can at least have chance at the division still. In week 17, we play in the afternoon, the week 17 games below will already have been played - so we will know the outcome of the strength of victory tiebreaker prior to the Seahawks game,.

Week 16:

Cowboys at Eagles - Cheer for Cowboys
Packers at Vikings - Cheer for Packers - THIS ONE IS HUGE
Giants at Redskins - Cheer for Redskins

Week 17:
Bears at Vikings - Cheer for Bears
Packers at Lions - Cheer for Packers
Redskins at Cowboys- Cheer for Redskins
Eagles at Giants - Cheer for Giants

Cheering against the Vikings also helps us get the #5 seed if we get the wildcard. No one wants play at GB, NO or Seahawks first.

I think you need to include New Orleans (for SF) and Atlanta (for Seattle) because those two opponents had differing results between the teams.