Race for the nfc west and the #1 seed

Originally posted by ninerfan4life:

The #49ers loss to the #Falcons almost doesn't matter, at least as far as the NFC West goes. SF and Seattle have same records, so Week 17 between the #Seahawks and Niners matters most.

Even if the 49ers lose to LA next week and SEA wins, Week 17 is still all that matters. #49wz

— Peter Panacy (@PeterPanacy) December 16, 2019

Thats not true. Hes not looking at tie break rules

We have to win out to win the west unless seattle drops one this week.

Originally posted by HONEYBADGER:
Playing for the division in Seattle is a bad prospect, very bad. Seattle is still the soul snatching boogey man for the 49ers.

Yes , the hawks have beaten the niners in Seattle 8 times in a row, but who's counting.

We have to win out to win the west but to also still have that #1 seed. Being #1 is the most important thing this team should be focusing on these next two games. One game at a time to get that #1 seed

Originally posted by Happs:

Originally posted by 49erBrodie70:

Originally posted by RTFirefly:

Originally posted by midrdan:

Originally posted by D0PEMAN:

Originally posted by Niners418:
What happens if seattle beats AZ then loses to us
We lose to rams but beat seattle

tie breaker goes to strength of schedule?

If we both finish 12-4 but we beat Seattle and lose to Rams:

1. 1st tiebreaker is head to head. That would be even.

2. 2nd tiebreaker is division record. We both would have 2 division losses. Even.

3. 3rd tiebreaker is conference record. We would both have 3 conference losses. Even.

4. 4th tiebreaker is non conference record. We both lost to Baltimore. Even.

5. 5th tiebreaker is winning percentage of non-common opponents. Seattle played Vikings and Eagles. We played Green Bay and Washington. Currently Seattle wins this tiebreaker because Vikings/Eagles have a higher winning percentage. But if Vikings lose to GB and Eagles lose to Dallas next week, we would be tied in this category heading into Week 17 (assuming Washington beats the Giants).

6. 6th tiebreaker is points differential. We are well ahead of Seattle.

So we are rooting for Vikings and Eagles to lose out. Washington to win a game. GB to win out.

This isn't right.

NFL divisional rival tiebreakers:
1) Head-to-head
2) Divisional record
3) Common games record, minimum of 4 games
4) Conference record
5) Strength of victory record
----------------------------------------
If Seattle beats AZ then loses to us, we lose to rams but beat Seattle then it comes down to #5 Strength of Victory, which we currently lead slightly and are in good shape - Wash, GB, NO record vs. Philly, Minn, Atl record.

A poster detailed it all accurately a page or two ago on this thread. Apologies for not having his name handy to credit him.

It was captveg....titled it strength of schedule, but it was the analysis for strength of victory. The Saints and Packers wins really help, but Washington drags it down. If Atlanta keeps winning, that won't help either. It would all be moot if either Seattle loses or SF wins next week, at least for the division tie-breaker.

I agree with this analysis. But oddly enough, ESPN playoff matchup generator has Seahawks taking the higher seed in all scenarios in which we lose to the Rams and then beat the Seahawks. Seems it's wrong or am Iwe missing something?

I don't see how. I was quoting captveg, but I also went through all the tiebreakers on my own. It's not difficult. I went by the NFL's own published tiebreaking rules. The tiebreaker would be Strength of Victory, which is currently is our favor but is still up in the air.

Yes, Strength of Victory. Sorry for the typo.

I think all the online calculators are only using the current strength of victory, but this neglects the logical W16-W17 assumptions of Seattle beating the Cards a second time and the 49ers beating Seattle that are required for this tie breaker to even come into play. Those two results would increase SF's Strength of Victory win % and drop Seattle's SoV win %.

Currently - without adding the presumed W16 and W17 results of LAR > SF, SEA > ARZ and SF > SEA (both teams finishing 12-4) the SoV % is the following after you throw out the common team victories in W1-W15:

SF: 28-26-1

WAS - 3-11
NO - 10-3
GB - 11-3
ARZ (2nd Game) - 4-9-1

SEA: 33-23

ATL - 5-9
MIN - 10-4
PHI - 7-7
SF - 11-3

This is why things show SEA with the SoV tie breaker right now - because they are counting SEA's victories over SF as part of the formula vs. SF's 2nd victory over ARZ. But in the scenario that would require this tie breaker those games would be canceled out, leaving it to just the other three opponents for each team.

Originally posted by Curlin:

Originally posted by HONEYBADGER:

Playing for the division in Seattle is a bad prospect, very bad. Seattle is still the soul snatching boogey man for the 49ers.

Yes , the hawks have beaten the niners in Seattle 8 times in a row, but who's counting.

Holy ish, 8 frickin years? My God I didnt realize that.

I've spent too long researching, running simulations and calculating probabilities and I believe I have figured it out. Hang with me because this is very confusing.

Win the next two games and we're the #1 seed.

Originally posted by Kyzen:

Originally posted by Curlin:

Originally posted by HONEYBADGER:
Playing for the division in Seattle is a bad prospect, very bad. Seattle is still the soul snatching boogey man for the 49ers.

Yes , the hawks have beaten the niners in Seattle 8 times in a row, but who's counting.

Holy ish, 8 frickin years? My God I didnt realize that.

Guys are dreaming real big if they think we are going to go in there and win. I will believe that when I see it. Easier said than done for this team.

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:

Originally posted by Kyzen:

Originally posted by Curlin:

Originally posted by HONEYBADGER:

Playing for the division in Seattle is a bad prospect, very bad. Seattle is still the soul snatching boogey man for the 49ers.

Yes , the hawks have beaten the niners in Seattle 8 times in a row, but who's counting.

Holy ish, 8 frickin years? My God I didnt realize that.

Guys are dreaming real big if they think we are going to go in there and win. I will believe that when I see it. Easier said than done for this team.

lol, and I bet it would make you happy as heck to run back here and point that out if we were to lose again.

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:

Originally posted by Kyzen:

Originally posted by Curlin:

Originally posted by HONEYBADGER:
Playing for the division in Seattle is a bad prospect, very bad. Seattle is still the soul snatching boogey man for the 49ers.

Yes , the hawks have beaten the niners in Seattle 8 times in a row, but who's counting.

Holy ish, 8 frickin years? My God I didnt realize that.

Guys are dreaming real big if they think we are going to go in there and win. I will believe that when I see it. Easier said than done for this team.

we haven't been good since like 2013...... so take 6 years from that and its not all that bad... Also we were 0-8 vs the cardinals until this year as well...

Originally posted by Kyzen:
Holy ish, 8 frickin years? My God I didnt realize that.

Actually its 7 years and 1 playoff game.

but I don't care! Time for a change and I REALLY like our chances of winning there. However we are going to destroy the Lambs first on Saturday night.

WE ARE THE BEST TEAM IN THE NFC AND WE ARE WINNING THE WEST!

Originally posted by Curlin:

Originally posted by Kyzen:
Holy ish, 8 frickin years? My God I didnt realize that.

Actually its 7 years and 1 playoff game.

but I don't care! Time for a change and I REALLY like our chances of winning there. However we are going to destroy the Lambs first on Saturday night.

WE ARE THE BEST TEAM IN THE NFC AND WE ARE WINNING THE WEST!

Ol' Lefty!

Originally posted by ninerfan4life:

The #49ers loss to the #Falcons almost doesn't matter, at least as far as the NFC West goes. SF and Seattle have same records, so Week 17 between the #Seahawks and Niners matters most.

Even if the 49ers lose to LA next week and SEA wins, Week 17 is still all that matters. #49wz

— Peter Panacy (@PeterPanacy) December 16, 2019

I've been saying this for weeks.

So.....correct me if I'm wrong:

Niners win out : #1 seed

Niners lose next week but beat Seattle: #3 seed

Niners lose both:#5 seed