Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Seahawks record in common games: 8-3
Rams L
Saints L
Ravens L
Cardinals W
Steelers W
Bengals W
Browns W
Falcons W
Bucs W
Rams W
Panthers W
49ers record in common games: 9-2
Ravens L
Falcons L
Cardinals W
Cardinals W
Steelers W
Bengals W
Browns W
Bucs W
Rams W
Panthers W
Saints W
If we lose to the Rams but beat Seattle, head-to-head will be tied 1-1, the division record will be tied at 4-2, common games record tied at 9-3, and conference records tied at 9-3. So it then moves to tie-breaker #5 with strength of victory.
Therefore, the Seahawks cannot win the division unless they win the strength of victory tie-breaker. The ESPN scenario engine incorrectly keeps saying "Seattle wins based on common games W-L-T percentage" even though that is tied in this scenario.
but what if we lose to the Rams and Seattle beats the Cards? does that render our week 17 matchup with them useless?
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Fanaticofnfl
- Veteran
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- Posts: 20,313
Originally posted by global_nomad:
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Seahawks record in common games: 8-3
Rams L
Saints L
Ravens L
Cardinals W
Steelers W
Bengals W
Browns W
Falcons W
Bucs W
Rams W
Panthers W
49ers record in common games: 9-2
Ravens L
Falcons L
Cardinals W
Cardinals W
Steelers W
Bengals W
Browns W
Bucs W
Rams W
Panthers W
Saints W
If we lose to the Rams but beat Seattle, head-to-head will be tied 1-1, the division record will be tied at 4-2, common games record tied at 9-3, and conference records tied at 9-3. So it then moves to tie-breaker #5 with strength of victory.
Therefore, the Seahawks cannot win the division unless they win the strength of victory tie-breaker. The ESPN scenario engine incorrectly keeps saying "Seattle wins based on common games W-L-T percentage" even though that is tied in this scenario.
Thanks OTC. Never using ESPN playoff generator ever again. Like EVER again.
IIRC the "common games" tiebreaker was messed up last season, too. Unbelievable that they haven't fixed it yet.
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Jeepzilla
- Veteran
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- Posts: 6,709
- NFL Pick 'em
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Seahawks record in common games: 8-3
Rams L
Saints L
Ravens L
Cardinals W
Steelers W
Bengals W
Browns W
Falcons W
Bucs W
Rams W
Panthers W
49ers record in common games: 9-2
Ravens L
Falcons L
Cardinals W
Cardinals W
Steelers W
Bengals W
Browns W
Bucs W
Rams W
Panthers W
Saints W
If we lose to the Rams but beat Seattle, head-to-head will be tied 1-1, the division record will be tied at 4-2, common games record tied at 9-3, and conference records tied at 9-3. So it then moves to tie-breaker #5 with strength of victory.
Therefore, the Seahawks cannot win the division unless they win the strength of victory tie-breaker. The ESPN scenario engine incorrectly keeps saying "Seattle wins based on common games W-L-T percentage" even though that is tied in this scenario.
Ummm
You forgot an important common team That we played..
Seattle.. and we lost to them
Or doesn't that count?
What am I missing?
[ Edited by Jeepzilla on Dec 18, 2019 at 10:24 AM ]
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NinerBuff
- The Election Dude
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Originally posted by Jeepzilla:
Ummm
You forgot an important common team That we played..
Seattle.. and we lost to them
Or doesn't that count?
What am I missing?
The assumption is that we win Week 17, so its 1-1 for those games.
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genus49
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Stop talking about tie breaker situations guys. If we lose 2 at home this late in the season after beating New Orleans on the road then we may as well close up shop and look at next year.
This team took a little stumble. They better bring everything they got and beat the Rams - pretty, ugly, whatever - just win.
You don't want to limp into the playoffs, it very rarely works out for teams.
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OnTheClock
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Originally posted by Jeepzilla:
Ummm
You forgot an important common team That we played..
Seattle.. and we lost to them
Or doesn't that count?
What am I missing?
"Common games" refers to games outside of the ones against each other. Games against each other are head-to-head. Each division team plays 12 common games every year. The only one we have left, relative to Seattle, is the Rams game. Beating the Rams is important to us capturing the #1 seed and home field.
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9moon
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- NFL Pick 'em
Originally posted by NCommand:
REST EVERYONE NOW!
JUST another excuse if they happen to FAIL this year..
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global_nomad
- Veteran
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Originally posted by 9moon:
Originally posted by NCommand:
REST EVERYONE NOW!
JUST another excuse if they happen to FAIL this year..
So the #5 seed is now heading to Philly.
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OnTheClock
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Originally posted by SkyZer0:
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Seahawks record in common games: 8-3
Rams L
Saints L
Ravens L
Cardinals W
Steelers W
Bengals W
Browns W
Falcons W
Bucs W
Rams W
Panthers W
49ers record in common games: 9-2
Ravens L
Falcons L
Cardinals W
Cardinals W
Steelers W
Bengals W
Browns W
Bucs W
Rams W
Panthers W
Saints W
If we lose to the Rams but beat Seattle, head-to-head will be tied 1-1, the division record will be tied at 4-2, common games record tied at 9-3, and conference records tied at 9-3. So it then moves to tie-breaker #5 with strength of victory.
Therefore, the Seahawks cannot win the division unless they win the strength of victory tie-breaker. The ESPN scenario engine incorrectly keeps saying "Seattle wins based on common games W-L-T percentage" even though that is tied in this scenario.
but what if we lose to the Rams and Seattle beats the Cards? does that render our week 17 matchup with them useless?
No. We can still win the division in that scenario but it depends on other teams at that point.
If the 49ers lose to the Rams, the Seahawks could clinch the division with a lot of help. Right now Seattle's strength of victory is 72 wins to the 49ers 68 wins. The scenario is definitely complicated as to the possibilities on how many wins each team can add in the next two weeks.
Basically, if we lost to the Rams but beat Seattle, then Seattle would have to at least tie our SOV to win the division (because we wouldn't win the SOS tie-breaker). Therefore, Seattle would have to achieve a net gain of 8 or more wins in the next two weeks.
[ Edited by OnTheClock on Dec 18, 2019 at 11:07 AM ]
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KittleMeThis
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I think deep down all of us fans are scared to lose this game on saturday.
We are desperate for this win.
It's your money, use it when you need it.
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OnTheClock
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Looking at the scenario where it comes down to SOV tie-breaker (meaning if SEA beat ARI and we lost vs. LA), this is what I see:
Current SOV:
Seahawks 72
49ers 68
Potential SOV Gains for 49ers in this scenario:
Week 16: LAR (1 - the only silver lining of them beating us, lol), NO (1), WASH (1), GB (1) = +4
Week 17: SEA (12), NO (1), WASH (1), GB (1) = +15
Worse case gain if the only other gain is us beating Seattle: +13
Total SOV: 68 + 13 = 81
Potential SOV Gains for Seahawks in this scenario:
Week 16: ARI (4), MIN (1), PHI (1), ATL (1), LAR (1) = +8
Week 17: MIN (1), PHI (1), ATL (1) = +3
Best case gains if Seahawks lose to us: +11
Total SOV: 72 + 11 = 83
In conclusion, if we beat Seattle, the worst case SOV we can get if we lose to the Rams and no one else helps us out, is 81. If Seattle loses to us in Week 17, they would have to hope to have things go their way in at least 8 of the 11 unique games that would affect both their and our SOVs. If 4/11 of those games go in our favor, we win the SOV tie-breaker. All that said.. the only way this tie-breaker even comes into play is if we don't beat LA. BEAT LA, BEAT SEA, and go into the playoffs with the 13-3 record as the #1 seed.