Super Bowl preview: stats, matchups, and breakdowns

Originally posted by mitpdub:
Team Defense DVOA rankings
Chiefs #8 pass, #29 run
49ers # 2 pass, #11 run

DVOA takes out those teams with weak schedules and compares them over average.
Football Outsiders link

Originally posted by All22:
So KC is one of the worst run defending team in that league? Is that due to scheme, lack of talent, or because they play so much dime?

About why KC was playing so much dime, I think it's because instead of using nickel to match up with 3WRs, they just skip nickel and go straight to dime. I haven't watched them closely, but my guess is some games they are up big and other teams are forced to throw. So KC puts out dime to help defend the pass. When it comes to why they are bad at defending the run, I don't know (yet?).

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by All22:

So KC is one of the worst run defending team in that league? Is that due to scheme, lack of talent, or because they play so much dime?

About why KC was playing so much dime, I think it's because instead of using nickel to match up with 3WRs, they just skip nickel and go straight to dime. I haven't watched them closely, but my guess is some games they are up big and other teams are forced to throw. So KC puts out dime to help defend the pass. When it comes to why they are bad at defending the run, I don't know (yet?).

I thought the Titans were in position to play their style of ground and pound with Henry, but they started getting pass happy, then were forced to pass in 3rd and longs.

We're much more balanced and with play action I can see Kittle/Debo/Sanders getting chunk plays. At some point KC will have to sell out to stop the run, and Jimmy will do just like he did yesterday when he called an audible at the line and threw it to Kittle

I'm guessing that there will be more fans placing small bets( $100-500) on the Chiefs because they have the high flying offense but I wonder where the big bets will go. One half million dollar bet can cancel out a lot of individual fan bets. We'll see if the line moves.

Originally posted by All22:
So KC is one of the worst run defending team in that league? Is that due to scheme, lack of talent, or because they play so much dime?

That's a great question. When I saw they were #29 against the run, my first reaction was they must play against the pass because opposing teams have to keep up.

Originally posted by mitpdub:

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by All22:
So KC is one of the worst run defending team in that league? Is that due to scheme, lack of talent, or because they play so much dime?

About why KC was playing so much dime, I think it's because instead of using nickel to match up with 3WRs, they just skip nickel and go straight to dime. I haven't watched them closely, but my guess is some games they are up big and other teams are forced to throw. So KC puts out dime to help defend the pass. When it comes to why they are bad at defending the run, I don't know (yet?).

I thought the Titans were in position to play their style of ground and pound with Henry, but they started getting pass happy, then were forced to pass in 3rd and longs.

I was surprised by that. Score was 21-17 (w/ KC in the red zone) at the start of the 4th. TN could've keep running it.

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
I'm guessing that there will be more fans placing small bets( $100-500) on the Chiefs because they have the high flying offense but I wonder where the big bets will go. One half million dollar bet can cancel out a lot of individual fan bets. We'll see if the line moves.

I say the 49ers win outright. Getting + points with the Chiefs favored is robbery. It's like the sports books haven't seen us play. When healthy this is a heck of a team. They have a great QB. But we have a great team.

49ers by 3 touchdowns.

Originally posted by DRCHOWDER:

49ers by 3 touchdowns.

One thread isn't enough and I don't want interesting stats and breakdowns being lost due to how quickly the main pregame thread moves. I'll post stats, tweets, video breakdowns, etc. If anyone finds something intriguing involving matchup breakdowns, please post it here.

Hey @thl408, I'm wondering if you know of any good stat comps for Jimmy G. Been kind of surprised by so many in the national media comparing him to Flacco, Delhomme, etc. i.e. pocket passing stiffs who can't win a game unless everything goes exactly right. Even when he's not throwing for a million yards he still passes the pretty-damn-good-qb eye test for me: accurate, quick release, guts in the pocket, can hit the 2nd/3rd option, can make a play off-script, etc. Not saying he's Mahomes either, though. Guess I'm trying to take my fandom out of it for a second and see him a little more clearly.

Anyway, thanks for the insight. Been lurking on the Zone for a while and you and @jonnydel are the gold (no pun intended) standard

Originally posted by father49er:

Originally posted by All22:
So KC is one of the worst run defending team in that league? Is that due to scheme, lack of talent, or because they play so much dime?

That's a great question. When I saw they were #29 against the run, my first reaction was they must play against the pass because opposing teams have to keep up.

They're also 28th in yards per rush allowed so that argument doesn't really hold up.

Originally posted by kbarlows1000ydseason:

One thread isn't enough and I don't want interesting stats and breakdowns being lost due to how quickly the main pregame thread moves. I'll post stats, tweets, video breakdowns, etc. If anyone finds something intriguing involving matchup breakdowns, please post it here.

Hey @thl408, I'm wondering if you know of any good stat comps for Jimmy G. Been kind of surprised by so many in the national media comparing him to Flacco, Delhomme, etc. i.e. pocket passing stiffs who can't win a game unless everything goes exactly right. Even when he's not throwing for a million yards he still passes the pretty-damn-good-qb eye test for me: accurate, quick release, guts in the pocket, can hit the 2nd/3rd option, can make a play off-script, etc. Not saying he's Mahomes either, though. Guess I'm trying to take my fandom out of it for a second and see him a little more clearly.

Anyway, thanks for the insight. Been lurking on the Zone for a while and you and @jonnydel are the gold (no pun intended) standard

The national media only remembers the past 3 weeks of playoffs when it comes to analyzing JG, and it's no surprise they think Jimmy has been coddled. I don't have any stat comps, but I'm constantly scouring twitter so if I find any it'll be posted here. His total numbers for this playoffs are going to be trashy since he hasn't thrown many passes. But as far as his regular season efficiency numbers, I think those favor him very well (comp%, yards per pass, etc). He's still the same guy with the quick release and accuracy in the short/intermediate range, just hasn't had to show that off vs MIN/GB.

Rush with 4? 49ers can do that

Originally posted by thl408:

Rush with 4? 49ers can do that

Per @NextGenStats 16 of Patrick Mahomes 17 INT since 2018 have come vs 4 or fewer pass rushers. Mahomes INT pct is 3.5 when those 4 rushers get pressure and 1.2 when they do not.

The 49ers are getting pressure rushing 4 on 33.5 pct of dropbacks with Dee Ford on the field in 2019 pic.twitter.com/yT8XdBsu69

— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) January 21, 2020

The more I think about this game the more I think we're going to crush them.

Originally posted by DRCHOWDER:

49ers by 3 touchdowns.

I know it will be a three score win. Last half of the fourth quarter will be a freaking coronation. This game is about a defense that excels vs the pass and KC is an offense that generally can't run the ball well. We want to make teams one dimensional towards the pass and viola it's pretty much baked in the cake vs these guys. You come out vs us trying to throw the ball 45 times you're gonna lose!