Super Bowl preview: stats, matchups, and breakdowns

Originally posted by thl408:
49ers run the ball = win the game

Along that thought-
#Chiefs losses / opp rushing yds:
Wk 5 Indy 45 rushes 180 yds
Wk 6 Hou 41 Rushes 192 yds
Wk 8 GB 26 rushes 118 yds
Wk 10 Tenn 26 rushes 225 yds

Ave: 34.5 rushes 179 yds.

Hmmm... Wonder what #49ers will do?? KC gives up 4.9 ypc. Keep KC offense off field https://t.co/nZleQH14jX

— John Lund (@JohnLundRadio) January 20, 2020

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which plays right into the hands of the 49ers...

Originally posted by thl408:
One thread isn't enough and I don't want interesting stats and breakdowns being lost due to how quickly the main pregame thread moves. I'll post stats, tweets, video breakdowns, etc. If anyone finds something intriguing involving matchup breakdowns, please post it here.

is it honestly safe to say..that....

the Vikings were the toughest defense the niners have/had really faced all season?

Originally posted by SkyZer0:
is it honestly safe to say..that....

the Vikings were the toughest defense the niners have/had really faced all season?

I'd say PIT and perhaps NO could put their name in the conversation for toughest defense the 49ers have played in 2019. Although when they played PIT it was Minkah's first game as a Steeler so he wasn't fully acclimated yet. One thing is for sure, it isn't the Chiefs.

There is nothing scary about the Chiefs defense. I see us putting 40+ points on these chumps. This victory is in the hands of Saleh and the defense.

The public is betting heavy KC

Instead of Vegas increasing the spread (to even out the beta) they lowered it . Making more people bet KC.

Vegas pretty much picked us to win .

Originally posted by blizzuntz:

The public is betting heavy KC

Instead of Vegas increasing the spread (to even out the beta) they lowered it . Making more people bet KC.

Vegas pretty much picked us to win .

If you're not a 49er fan or in the NFC West, you're going to believe the hype.

There aren't many people who really understand this team, and especially the defense. In fact, the defense hasn't looked like this since after the Panthers game, so I guess people can be forgiven thinking we are going to get torched.

It seems like people who understand football think the 49ers have a good chance

Originally posted by trogdor:

Originally posted by blizzuntz:

The public is betting heavy KC

Instead of Vegas increasing the spread (to even out the beta) they lowered it . Making more people bet KC.

Vegas pretty much picked us to win .

If you're not a 49er fan or in the NFC West, you're going to believe the hype.

There aren't many people who really understand this team, and especially the defense. In fact, the defense hasn't looked like this since after the Panthers game, so I guess people can be forgiven thinking we are going to get torched.

The last time I saw this in a SB , was when Seattle crushed Peyton and the Broncos

People bet hard on the Manning hype and never changed the spread to even it out

I'm kinda waiting on the line to move higher for the chiefs so my money line bet on the niners pays more

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by kbarlows1000ydseason:

One thread isn't enough and I don't want interesting stats and breakdowns being lost due to how quickly the main pregame thread moves. I'll post stats, tweets, video breakdowns, etc. If anyone finds something intriguing involving matchup breakdowns, please post it here.

Hey @thl408, I'm wondering if you know of any good stat comps for Jimmy G. Been kind of surprised by so many in the national media comparing him to Flacco, Delhomme, etc. i.e. pocket passing stiffs who can't win a game unless everything goes exactly right. Even when he's not throwing for a million yards he still passes the pretty-damn-good-qb eye test for me: accurate, quick release, guts in the pocket, can hit the 2nd/3rd option, can make a play off-script, etc. Not saying he's Mahomes either, though. Guess I'm trying to take my fandom out of it for a second and see him a little more clearly.

Anyway, thanks for the insight. Been lurking on the Zone for a while and you and @jonnydel are the gold (no pun intended) standard

The national media only remembers the past 3 weeks of playoffs when it comes to analyzing JG, and it's no surprise they think Jimmy has been coddled. I don't have any stat comps, but I'm constantly scouring twitter so if I find any it'll be posted here. His total numbers for this playoffs are going to be trashy since he hasn't thrown many passes. But as far as his regular season efficiency numbers, I think those favor him very well (comp%, yards per pass, etc). He's still the same guy with the quick release and accuracy in the short/intermediate range, just hasn't had to show that off vs MIN/GB.

QB stats lean so heavy into yards and completion percentages that you are going to come up with bad comps.

"They" say QBs make their money on 3rd downs, so i would like to see where he sits with some of the media hyped guys this year and also in history for 3rd down conversion rates.

ALEX would be interesting to see as well since we get so much YAC.

Originally posted by blizzuntz:
The public is betting heavy KC

Instead of Vegas increasing the spread (to even out the beta) they lowered it . Making more people bet KC.

Vegas pretty much picked us to win .

This.

Vegas knows exactly what they're doing. They know that the Niners have been flying under the radar all season long, and they also know that Mahomes is a media darling and that their offense gets all the publicity.

I'm just a dude who sits at home and eats chips during most games, but opening at KC -1.5 tells me that Vegas is expecting the Niners to win but are looking to cash in on the KC hype. If they opened as a pick, then there would be a bigger betting pool for both teams and effectively limiting the amount they bring in.

Both defenses at top of the league in preventing open targets at sticks or further downfield

I'm most fascinated by the obvious matchup of KC D vs 9er run. What's also fascinating is how confident KC fans are after stopping Henry. I mean anyone who watched that game saw KC sell-out on the run and basically just wait for Henry to come rumbling down. They made sure they tackled and didn't get blown off the line and for sure that deserves credit. Just seems like those same fans are trying their best to ignore how completely different our run game is. There's no bruiser back coming down the gut every play. Instead you've got dudes - fast dudes - running every which way. If KC wants to stack the box, they can go ahead and do that but they shouldn't be surprised when it turns out to be completely ineffective.

Originally posted by Pillbusta:

Originally posted by DRCHOWDER:

49ers by 3 touchdowns.

I know it will be a three score win. Last half of the fourth quarter will be a freaking coronation. This game is about a defense that excels vs the pass and KC is an offense that generally can't run the ball well. We want to make teams one dimensional towards the pass and viola it's pretty much baked in the cake vs these guys. You come out vs us trying to throw the ball 45 times you're gonna lose!

I'm with these guys. Just saying. We are built for this.

Love all these stats we have been seeing.

I feel like everything I'm seeing is in our favor? I'm not positive if people are only posting favorable stuff here or if this really is just a great matchup for us?

Either way, Reading all the info in this thread and others has really increased my confidence.