Super Bowl preview: stats, matchups, and breakdowns

Originally posted by jonnydel:
It was and wasn't. They also gave up 2 passing TD's and Mahomes 27 yard TD run was the same thing as well. Reid is too adept when teams do the same thing over and over again.

The chargers, Pats and Colts all didn't use this approach and were more effective, IMO against the Chiefs. They were more disciplined in their rush lanes and collapsed the edge or, in the case of the Bears, when Mack won, it was over. We have that ability. I think we have to mix it up with a slower, more disciplined rush and a full on speed rush. We're going to give up some plays but don't let Mahomes have a predictable clock. If you pure speed rush and try and get to him every single play, he speeds up his, "get out of there" clock, like Russel Wilson. Yet if you delay, like this, he'll eventually adjust and get more patient and just keep drifting back, buying time. You have to mix it up.

It was frustrating watching the Texans vs them because HOU was in man-coverage and the Chiefs were dropping passes left and right. Reid was drawing up stuff to beat their man-coverage, lots of pick/rub plays, and beating the coverage, guys just weren't catching the ball. Yet, HOU didn't adjust. Watching it, you could tell it was just a matter of time until KC blew them off the field. It was sad, really.
They were up but couldn't see the writing on the wall that their defensive scheme was getting beat. By the time they started throwing in more zone, they were already down in the game.

Same thing with TEN. They got too stubborn with their scheme, at times. Staying in this man-coverage about 3 plays too long in some stretches.

IN both playoff games, Chiefs fell behind early. I'm pretty sure if they fall behind us, it's going to be fatal to their super bowl dreams. Our pass defense is too elite for any team trying to come back via the pass. I can see this as another Russel Midget/Kyler Murray game. In the last Seadderall game, without Ford, Seadderall was able to come back via some off schedule plays. I don't think that will happen with Ford being able to track down Mahomes. I know he tracked down Kyler Murray and horsecollered him for a loss the Cardinal game. I expect the game to be much more like the first Cardinal game where Mahomes will get his off schedule passes, but it's not going to be enough to win because of our own offense.

Kingsbury is a good OC (and I think Fat Andy will have a similar gameplan to Kliff) and AZ gameplanned to stuff the 49er run game, and I think Kyle will be ready with some explosives if KC is going to overload the run game and force Jimmy to pass the ball. I think KC is going to **have** to stop the run because if they don't -- they give us control of the game and give us the ability to ice KC's offense. Spagnola is 1-5 against Kyle for a reason, he blitzes a lot, and I feel Kyle *knows* when Spagnulo is going to blitz and burn him. Add in the fact that Jimmy's QBR rating goes UP when he's blitzed and I see this game over in the third or beginning of the fourth quarter.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Mahomes vs top 5 passing defenses this year

LAC: 182 yards 1 TD 1 Int

LAC: 174 yards 1 TD 1 Int

BLT: 374 yards 2 TD 1 Int

Pats: 283 yards 1 TD 1 Int

That's an average of 253 yards 1.25 TD 1 Int, and none of these teams even have a top 10 pass rush.

— Mike (@NinerTribe004) January 25, 2020

As more and more stats come along with history repeating itself all favoring the niners, it just shows the niners being a great matchup against the chiefs. On top of that im glad the media is giving the niners even more motivation to demolish the chiefs. Not thinking were going to steamroll the chiefs but i just keep getting more and more confident that the niners win against these chiefs.

Originally posted by Team49ers:
As more and more stats come along with history repeating itself all favoring the niners, it just shows the niners being a great matchup against the chiefs. On top of that im glad the media is giving the niners even more motivation to demolish the chiefs. Not thinking were going to steamroll the chiefs but i just keep getting more and more confident that the niners win against these chiefs.

I saw where the biggest bets so far are going on the Niners. More people betting the Chiefs but smaller amounts.

I'm a little worried about the Chiefs using the threat of their passing game to run the ball early in the game. The Packers had some success moving the ball on the ground on a couple of drives, before turnovers and the score being 0-27 to get them out of running the ball...

Absolutely cannot let KC run the ball early on

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by SlowDownBoy:

Originally posted by thl408:
Greg Cossell was on local radio and mentioned TEN's gameplan vs KC. He thought TEN did a good job of limiting KC's explosives but that TEN's pass rush failed them. I'm watching the TEN/KC game and I see TEN doing what has been suggested in the SB preview thread, rush 3 and bring the 4th rusher late once the three force Mahomes from the pocket. That seemed to be TEN's plan on some plays. The problem for TEN was that the first three rushers were mostly ineffective, making the 4th guy not effective in pressuring Mahomes.

Here are two plays where it kinda worked even though the first three rushers weren't very good at getting pressure. The coverage was good and once Mahomes escaped the pocket, the 4th guy activated.

TEN in soft man coverage here. The cushion gives off a zone look, but they match up once the cushion is eaten up. imo this is the type of muddy presnap look that SF needs to use to cause Mahomes to hold on to the ball. Incomplete.


Cover 3 in the backend. Same thing here. Rush 3. Once Mahomes escapes, the 4th rusher activates. If SF uses this tactic on some downs, the key is having the three rushers be disruptive enough that the 4th rusher is able to activate sooner and the coverage won't have to hold up as long.

This is actually a brilliant defensive plan.

Should have did more this vs Russell Wilson and the Seahawks

It was and wasn't. They also gave up 2 passing TD's and Mahomes 27 yard TD run was the same thing as well. Reid is too adept when teams do the same thing over and over again.

The chargers, Pats and Colts all didn't use this approach and were more effective, IMO against the Chiefs. They were more disciplined in their rush lanes and collapsed the edge or, in the case of the Bears, when Mack won, it was over. We have that ability. I think we have to mix it up with a slower, more disciplined rush and a full on speed rush. We're going to give up some plays but don't let Mahomes have a predictable clock. If you pure speed rush and try and get to him every single play, he speeds up his, "get out of there" clock, like Russel Wilson. Yet if you delay, like this, he'll eventually adjust and get more patient and just keep drifting back, buying time. You have to mix it up.

It was frustrating watching the Texans vs them because HOU was in man-coverage and the Chiefs were dropping passes left and right. Reid was drawing up stuff to beat their man-coverage, lots of pick/rub plays, and beating the coverage, guys just weren't catching the ball. Yet, HOU didn't adjust. Watching it, you could tell it was just a matter of time until KC blew them off the field. It was sad, really.
They were up but couldn't see the writing on the wall that their defensive scheme was getting beat. By the time they started throwing in more zone, they were already down in the game.

Same thing with TEN. They got too stubborn with their scheme, at times. Staying in this man-coverage about 3 plays too long in some stretches.

I think that strategy (rush 3, delayed 4th rusher) could work on occasion as a changeup look. My hope, if the 49ers do this, is that the three 49ers rushing will be more effective than what TEN had to offer.

Like many have stated, and I agree, the key is keeping KC off balance, but while staying zone dominant as they have been all year. Mix it up with all the different zone coverages and pattern match a lot so that by the time Mahomes escapes the pocket, it's man coverage. It appears LAC went with a heavy dose of Cover3, and that could be Saleh's gameplan, but the 49ers are capable of doing so much more than just sit in Cover3 most of the game.

Great work on the preview video, jd. If presnap disguise can help Mahomes hold onto the ball just 0.2 seconds longer, do it. My hope is that Mahomes won't stay patient taking the 5-7 yard throws. But if he does, and the 49ers start to creep up to cover the short throws, that's when bad things could happen.

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by SlowDownBoy:

Originally posted by thl408:
Greg Cossell was on local radio and mentioned TEN's gameplan vs KC. He thought TEN did a good job of limiting KC's explosives but that TEN's pass rush failed them. I'm watching the TEN/KC game and I see TEN doing what has been suggested in the SB preview thread, rush 3 and bring the 4th rusher late once the three force Mahomes from the pocket. That seemed to be TEN's plan on some plays. The problem for TEN was that the first three rushers were mostly ineffective, making the 4th guy not effective in pressuring Mahomes.

Here are two plays where it kinda worked even though the first three rushers weren't very good at getting pressure. The coverage was good and once Mahomes escaped the pocket, the 4th guy activated.

TEN in soft man coverage here. The cushion gives off a zone look, but they match up once the cushion is eaten up. imo this is the type of muddy presnap look that SF needs to use to cause Mahomes to hold on to the ball. Incomplete.


Cover 3 in the backend. Same thing here. Rush 3. Once Mahomes escapes, the 4th rusher activates. If SF uses this tactic on some downs, the key is having the three rushers be disruptive enough that the 4th rusher is able to activate sooner and the coverage won't have to hold up as long.

This is actually a brilliant defensive plan.

Should have did more this vs Russell Wilson and the Seahawks

It was and wasn't. They also gave up 2 passing TD's and Mahomes 27 yard TD run was the same thing as well. Reid is too adept when teams do the same thing over and over again.

The chargers, Pats and Colts all didn't use this approach and were more effective, IMO against the Chiefs. They were more disciplined in their rush lanes and collapsed the edge or, in the case of the Bears, when Mack won, it was over. We have that ability. I think we have to mix it up with a slower, more disciplined rush and a full on speed rush. We're going to give up some plays but don't let Mahomes have a predictable clock. If you pure speed rush and try and get to him every single play, he speeds up his, "get out of there" clock, like Russel Wilson. Yet if you delay, like this, he'll eventually adjust and get more patient and just keep drifting back, buying time. You have to mix it up.

It was frustrating watching the Texans vs them because HOU was in man-coverage and the Chiefs were dropping passes left and right. Reid was drawing up stuff to beat their man-coverage, lots of pick/rub plays, and beating the coverage, guys just weren't catching the ball. Yet, HOU didn't adjust. Watching it, you could tell it was just a matter of time until KC blew them off the field. It was sad, really.
They were up but couldn't see the writing on the wall that their defensive scheme was getting beat. By the time they started throwing in more zone, they were already down in the game.

Same thing with TEN. They got too stubborn with their scheme, at times. Staying in this man-coverage about 3 plays too long in some stretches.

do you feel like we can be stubborn at all at times on defense whether it be playcalling-wise or scheme?

They don't blitz often, but when they do it often works

Originally posted by thl408:
They don't blitz often, but when they do it often works

The #49ers have only blitzed 140 times (including playoffs), 25th among defenses.

They've won 71% of those rushes.

#1 in the NFL pic.twitter.com/BRUjXXqkcp

— PFF SF 49ers (@PFF_49ers) January 27, 2020

was pretty effective vs. Seattle in the first half week 17

KWilliams:
"We just preach about plastering. When guys extend plays, just plaster to your coverage. If a guy's in your particular zone or whatever and quarterbacks are extending time, just plaster next to your guy," said K'Waun Williams, who insisted that there's no secret to covering faster receivers when a quarterback like Mahomes starts improvising.

JTartt:
"With their scheme they do a lot, to be honest. They do a lot of things where it's really the same stuff. It's just different formations, different personnel. So when you watch the film, that's huge this week," Tartt said. "We'll see a lot of stuff (where) it's the same play just with different formations. That kind of slows the game for you. Like, OK, there's only so many routes in a play they can run from that formation. So it kind of just cleans up a lot of things for you so you can play fast."

DGreenlaw:
"When you're playing a quarterback that's as smart as Mahomes, he's going to give you a bunch of different things. So you gotta mix it up," Greenlaw said. "That's really more for, you know, the coaches and the game plan of what they think we should play. I don't really know exactly … I mean, I know what we're playing, but I'm not saying (laughs). You know what I mean? It's just about giving him different looks and giving him different disguises."

This is the best statistic that I have come across to date. In fact, I had a 80+% win percentage on my pools this year when picking a winner without the spread.

This can be thought of as a team rating: it is sorted by each team's Offensive Adj Y/P average minus its Defensive Adj Y/P average. The 49ers stand out as the best team in the NFL.

http://www.footballperspective.com/2019-team-ratings-adjusted-yards-per-play/

Originally posted by BigBossBosa97:
This is the best statistic that I have come across to date. In fact, I had a 80+% win percentage on my pools this year when picking a winner without the spread.

This can be thought of as a team rating: it is sorted by each team's Offensive Adj Y/P average minus its Defensive Adj Y/P average. The 49ers stand out as the best team in the NFL.

http://www.footballperspective.com/2019-team-ratings-adjusted-yards-per-play/

That article did a good job of explaining that statistic (adjusted yards/play). Sometimes those advanced stats makes my head spin. Basically it adjusts for the NFL being a passing league, and in this case it doesn't penalize the 49ers for being light on passing plays.

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by BigBossBosa97:

This is the best statistic that I have come across to date. In fact, I had a 80+% win percentage on my pools this year when picking a winner without the spread.

This can be thought of as a team rating: it is sorted by each team's Offensive Adj Y/P average minus its Defensive Adj Y/P average. The 49ers stand out as the best team in the NFL.

http://www.footballperspective.com/2019-team-ratings-adjusted-yards-per-play/

That article did a good job of explaining that statistic (adjusted yards/play). Sometimes those advanced stats makes my head spin. Basically it adjusts for the NFL being a passing league, and in this case it doesn't penalize the 49ers for being light on passing plays.

From what I have read it has been the most accurate stat for predicting wins and losses since they began using it in the early 90's.

^^ That chart will make your head spin imo. People should read the article to understand that

Must take away their run game early, then concentrate on stopping their passing game. Can't defend their passing game AND their run game. That would be a disaster.