Super Bowl preview: stats, matchups, and breakdowns | Page 9

Jan 28, 2020 at 11:18 AM

BigBossBosa97
Veteran
Posts: 245

Originally posted by thl408:
^^ That chart will make your head spin imo. People should read the article to understand that

I know this is off subject but Cowboys seemed to be a real anomaly. Do you think coaching was the real problem? If that is the case, they could be a real threat in the NFC next season.

Jan 28, 2020 at 11:27 AM

#122

CatchMaster80
Veteran
Posts: 16,239

Chiefs unstoppable receivers
Hill 7 TDs
Kelce 5 Tds
Robinson 4 Tds
Watkins 3 Tds

Total 19 Tds

49ers mediocre recivers
Kittle 5 Tds
Bourne 5 Tds
Samuel 3 Tds plus 3 rushing
Sanders 3 Tds

Total 16 Tds plus 3 rushing

Chiefs don't look that intimidating. They just do it on bigger plays

Jan 28, 2020 at 11:33 AM

#123

BigBossBosa97
Veteran
Posts: 245

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
Chiefs unstoppable receivers
Hill 7 TDs
Kelce 5 Tds
Robinson 4 Tds
Watkins 3 Tds

Total 19 Tds

49ers mediocre recivers
Kittle 5 Tds
Bourne 5 Tds
Samuel 3 Tds plus 3 rushing
Sanders 3 Tds

Total 16 Tds plus 3 rushing

Chiefs don't look that intimidating. They just do it on bigger plays

On top of that, Niners lead the league with 25 rushing td's. Our offense is just as explosive as the Chiefs. This game really comes down to which defense holds their own and I believe our defense is better than theirs.

Jan 28, 2020 at 12:04 PM

#124

thl408
Moderator
Posts: 33,071

Mahomes vs pressure

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/super-bowl-matchup-patrick-mahomes-49ers-defense/
The 49ers have boasted one of the better pass defenses in the NFL this season, ranking near the top of the league in multiple categories. During the regular season, San Francisco ranked second in the league in expected points added via their pass defense (66.2), second in pressure rate (28.7%) and sack rate (8.5%) and first yards per pass attempt allowed (5.9) and first in yards per completion (9.7).

In terms of facing elite defenses on the pressure front, Mahomes and the Chiefs had just five games this season (including the postseason) against teams in the top-12 of the league in pressure rate. In the playoffs, they've faced the 25th ranked Titans and 31st ranked Texans in pressure rate. Despite handling pressure at high levels from a league perspective, Mahomes's raw totals still took a step back in those games versus his other games.

Jan 28, 2020 at 1:07 PM

#125

NYniner85
Veteran
Posts: 111,034

I didn't even see this thread!

love it

Jan 28, 2020 at 1:09 PM

#126

NYniner85
Veteran
Posts: 111,034

After crunching the numbers on 15 seasons of data, @cfrelund identifies 10 key figures that should play a massive role in deciding the winner of Super Bowl LIV.https://t.co/jr7y4zddWk pic.twitter.com/IO4UnsI6Jd
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) January 28, 2020

Jan 28, 2020 at 1:10 PM

#127

thl408
Moderator
Posts: 33,071

The 49ers play off-coverage at one of the highest rates in the league, which has funneled passes to the short area of the field—

Opponents average 6.9 air yards per attempt against the @49ers (shortest in NFL) and gain 60% of yards after the catch (highest).#SBLIV | #GoNiners pic.twitter.com/lQEzoQCjJX
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 28, 2020

Tyreek Hill (by Pre-Snap Cushion)—

Off-Coverage: 11.7 air yards/target
Press-Coverage: 19.7 air yards/target

Hill averages 3.4 yards per route against press, best in the NFL (min. 200 press routes).#SBLIV | #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/bR5J1vKuxJ
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 28, 2020

So give Hill the underneath stuff? You can press him, but if you miss, you're chasing and no one catches him from behind.

Jan 28, 2020 at 1:11 PM

#128

thl408
Moderator
Posts: 33,071

Originally posted by NYniner85:
I didn't even see this thread!

love it

Jan 28, 2020 at 1:31 PM

#129

NYniner85
Veteran
Posts: 111,034

Great insight BELOW from Baldy on the Niners' run attack...and why KC stopping Derrick Henry isn't necessarily relevant come Sunday. #BaldysBreakdowns
FULL #DDFP w @BaldyNFL -> https://t.co/WmpbPgFNeF pic.twitter.com/NonPdm9uGy
— Dave Dameshek (@Dameshek) January 28, 2020

Jan 28, 2020 at 1:33 PM

#130

Niners_D
Veteran
Posts: 1,498

Originally posted by BigBossBosa97:

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
Chiefs unstoppable receivers
Hill 7 TDs
Kelce 5 Tds
Robinson 4 Tds
Watkins 3 Tds

Total 19 Tds

49ers mediocre recivers
Kittle 5 Tds
Bourne 5 Tds
Samuel 3 Tds plus 3 rushing
Sanders 3 Tds

Total 16 Tds plus 3 rushing

Chiefs don't look that intimidating. They just do it on bigger plays

On top of that, Niners lead the league with 25 rushing td's. Our offense is just as explosive as the Chiefs. This game really comes down to which defense holds their own and I believe our defense is better than theirs.

And how many did The People's Tight End: Furious George have called back this year? Like 4 or 5 due to stupid or phantom penalties....

Jan 28, 2020 at 1:33 PM

#131

NYniner85
Veteran
Posts: 111,034

When Richard Sherman has been on the field this season, opposing quarterbacks rarely throw deep right (20+ air yards).@RSherman_25 did not allow a deep completion in coverage this season until the NFC Championship game.#SBLIV | #GoNiners pic.twitter.com/jSPHiZG9Mc
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 28, 2020

Sherman (13% target rate) has been targeted at a considerably lower rate the rest of the @49ers cornerbacks this season—

K'Waun Williams - 21%
Ahkello Witherspoon - 20%
Emmanuel Moseley - 19%#SBLIV | #GoNiners pic.twitter.com/cQy7kx2z0S
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 28, 2020

[ Edited by NYniner85 on Jan 28, 2020 at 1:33 PM ]

Jan 28, 2020 at 1:42 PM

#132

CatchMaster80
Veteran
Posts: 16,239

Originally posted by Niners_D:
And how many did The People's Tight End: Furious George have called back this year? Like 4 or 5 due to stupid or phantom penalties....

Very true but to be fair, I don't know how many the Chiefs got called back either. They were one of the most penalized teams in the league and I wouldn't be surprised if some of them weren't holding on a pass play as they tried to protect Mahomes. Just as I fear our DBs getting called for holding or PI against their receivers, they may get called for holding when they try and stop our pass rush.

Jan 28, 2020 at 1:44 PM

#133

Niners_D
Veteran
Posts: 1,498

Originally posted by NYniner85:

When Richard Sherman has been on the field this season, opposing quarterbacks rarely throw deep right (20+ air yards).@RSherman_25 did not allow a deep completion in coverage this season until the NFC Championship game.#SBLIV | #GoNiners pic.twitter.com/jSPHiZG9Mc
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 28, 2020

Sherman (13% target rate) has been targeted at a considerably lower rate the rest of the @49ers cornerbacks this season—

K'Waun Williams - 21%
Ahkello Witherspoon - 20%
Emmanuel Moseley - 19%#SBLIV | #GoNiners pic.twitter.com/cQy7kx2z0S
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 28, 2020

Good find. I wonder how much Sherman's study of the game and excellent pre-snap recognition of plays has helped him stay ahead of plays and negate his 'loss of a step' now that he is in his 30s. Clearly the WR production hasn't been there.

Jan 28, 2020 at 1:59 PM

#134

Niners_D
Veteran
Posts: 1,498

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:

Originally posted by Niners_D:
And how many did The People's Tight End: Furious George have called back this year? Like 4 or 5 due to stupid or phantom penalties....

Very true but to be fair, I don't know how many the Chiefs got called back either. They were one of the most penalized teams in the league and I wouldn't be surprised if some of them weren't holding on a pass play as they tried to protect Mahomes. Just as I fear our DBs getting called for holding or PI against their receivers, they may get called for holding when they try and stop our pass rush.

The SB officiating will be led by Bill Vinocich which poses a few thoughts and/or questions:

1. His crew threw 2 less flags per game than the league average 11 vs. 13. Is it his usual crew or a blend of officiating crews for the big game?
2. Bill was the guy who officiated last years NFC Championship Game between the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints which included the infamous non-call. In the national spotlight will he be more inclined to call PI this weekend?
3. Bill officiated one playoff game this year: Titans vs. Ravens. In that game his crew threw 12 flags, so only one above his average and one below the league average.

Jan 28, 2020 at 2:06 PM

#135

ColorMeBaddFan
Veteran
Posts: 742

Originally posted by BigBossBosa97:
This is the best statistic that I have come across to date. In fact, I had a 80+% win percentage on my pools this year when picking a winner without the spread.

This can be thought of as a team rating: it is sorted by each team's Offensive Adj Y/P average minus its Defensive Adj Y/P average. The 49ers stand out as the best team in the NFL.

http://www.footballperspective.com/2019-team-ratings-adjusted-yards-per-play/

Maybe I'm fishing for something to bolster who I hope wins, but that's a great article. I'm very curious about why the Cowboys ended up losing so many games, was it just Jason Garret screwing up game time decisions or is Dak Prescott the reverse Russel Wilson? My suspicion is the NFC East was historically bad and the Cowboys feasted on the division going 5-1 and then proceeded to go 3-7 outside of it, even while they were playing the second worst divsion in football -- the AFC East.

Tampa also looks like an outlier on that chart, but I suppose that system can't necessarily take into account Jameis Winston's copious amount of interceptions.