Originally posted by AB81Rules:
Posted this on Facebook replying to a friend of mine on there, about the 49ers cap, I'm posting the tweet/post i put out on X/Twitter.
Damnit, how do you imbed tweets/posts now that Twitter.com is X.com, again the stupidest name for a social media platform I've ever heard of.
Here's my post from Facebook broken down into paragraphs, when I did it on my iPad it wouldn't let me do paragraphs, so here it is for those who don't want to go to my X/Twitter account.
I know I don't post much but my educated guess is he signs a 4-5yr extension worth between $28m-$29m, likely $28.5m, which beats what Jaylen Waddle got, he gets $80m GTD, with $40m of it fully GTD, & he also beats Amon-Ra St. Brown's first 3yrs cash flow, he got around $65m, so I'd say between $68m-$70m over the first 3 yrs, but remember that it's cash, which is what the player earns, not their cap numbers which will likely end up in the $6.125m for 2024 if they do a $25m signing bonus, around $12m in 2025, & around $20m in 2026, while he likely gets 2 option bonuses, 1 in 2025, & 1 in 2026, both prorating over 5yrs, same for the signing bonus.
But that's my best guess on what type of deal Aiyuk would end up signing, now could he get $30m APY? Sure, but with same GTD money & 3yr cash flow. Also remember that the whole APY thing is a fluff number. Also those saying we can't keep Aiyuk, Brock, plus extend Deebo, Kittle & keep Ward are wrong, the 49ers can extend Trent Williams which would be thru 2028, he'd once again reset the LT market, & if they do it in 2025 it could save as much as $16.996m in cap room, an Aiyuk extension, w/the $25m signing bonus saves the team $7.999m for 2024, they have around $30.359m in cap room right now, add in the $7.999m, that's $38.358m in cap room.
But remember that you need to subtract at least $795k times 2 for players 52 & 53 on the 53-man roster, plus you need to factor in the teams practice squad, with 6 players w/3 or more accrued seasons(max of 6 allowed plus the 49ers always sign 6 anyway) & 10 players with under 3 accrued seasons, that'd be $2.25m for the 10 players as they'll get $12,500 a week, or $225k for 2024, & $2,300,400 for the 6 players that can earn a high of $21,300 a week, or $383,400 for 2024, so that's $4,550,400 for their 16-man practice squad, so subtract players 52 & 53($795k each, $1.59m) & the $4,550,400 for their practice squad from the $38.358m in projected cap room after an Aiyuk extension, that leaves them around $32.218m under their adjusted cap, which is close to $297.5m.
Set aside $5m for in season roster moves(practice squad elevations, new signings due to injuries, or emergency issues), the 49ers could end up with around $27.218m to carryover into 2025, where they'd be around $23m over a projected $280m cap, but that's with 50 players currently signed, in my roster projections, i come up with around 36-37 players signed for 2025, not including Aiyuk, they'd be about $9.131m over w/37 players under my latest projectIon, $20.891m over w/51 players signed(required to meet the top 51 rule), again before Aiyuk is included. Also the team could extend Mooney Ward this year, save up to $9.148m, have him signed long term, & wiping out his pending $12.298m in dead money from his void yrs added when signed in 2022 & his restructure in 2023, meaning they could theoretically get his cap hit in that $12.298m range, or a bit lower, by say $2m-$3m.
Finally for Brock Purdy's extension, some think he'll count more than $20m in 2025, but 1. The 49ers can't afford a $20m+ cap hit in 2025, & 2. They'll structure his deal how they did it with Bosa, where Brock would get league minimum base salaries in 2025, 2026, & 2027, so with say a $55m signing bonus, his cap hit for 2025 would be just $12.1m($1.1m base & $11m prorated), while they'd likely rise to around $17.065m($1.215m base, $11m prorated Signing Bonus from 2024, $750k per game roster bonus, a $100k workout bonus, & $4m prorated from a $20m option bonus in 2026) in 2026, & $19.695m($1.345m base, $11m prorated from 2025 signing bonus, $4m prorated from 2026 option bonus, $750k per game roster bonus, a $100k workout bonus, & $2.5m prorated from 2027 option bonus) in 2027, & the reason for low cap hits is because that's how the 49ers structure deals.
Plus when looking at Lawrence's deal, he has the following cap hits in yrs 1-3(2024-2026) $15m in 2024, $17m in 2025, & $24m in 2026, so there's no reason why the 49ers can't structure Brock's deal like they did Bosa & CMC, where in yrs 1-3(including the yr they signed the extension) they had/have the league minimum base salaries, while having a 3 bonus tier structure(1 signing bonus in yr deal is signed, & 1 option bonus in both yr 2 & yr 3), & still be able to keep guys like Deebo($8.493m pending dead money in 2026) & Kittle($13.625m pending dead money in 2026) while wiping out those dead money numbers, & getting both of them extended to shorter multi-year deals, like 3yr deals thru 2028.
Plus as said before they can extend Ward, save up to $9.148m in 2024, but also 1. Wipe out his 2025 $12.298m dead money hit, 2. Get him signed long term, & 3. Get his 2025 cap number at or below the $12.298m while he'd likely become on of the top 5 paid CB's, around $20m a year on average, & if they did the Trent Williams extension in 2025 they'd save as much as nearly $17m, which would help the team potentially retain Greenlaw & Lenoir.
Sorry for the long run on, i'm on my iPad so not sure how to break it up.
Now if the 49ers did the Ward extension now, saving $9.148m for 2024, they'd have $41.366m in cap room, minus $5m, they'd be able to carryover as much as $36.366m into 2025 from 2024. With the Aiyuk & Purdy extensions I'm using as a projection, the 49ers would be around $31.551m over a projected $280m 2025 cap, with 39 players signed, while they'd end up $43.331m over with 51 players signed, but carryover the $36.366m, leaves them $4.815m under with 39 players signed, or $6.945m over with 51 players signed, so you restructure or extend someone.
Again extending Trent saves $16.996m giving the 49ers either $21.811m in cap room w/39 players signed, or $14.866m in cap room w/51 players signed, this includes new deals for Brock, Aiyuk, Trent, & Ward, while no players would be let go of, while they'd have room to potentially retain Greenlaw and/or Lenoir, and they'd save money in 2026 as well w/Trent's extension, & no one in 2026 that's on a rookie deal in need of an expensive extension, as that'd be the year the 2023 draft class is eligible for extensions in which they took Ji'Ayir Brown, Jake Moody, Cameron Latu, Darrell Luter Jr., Robert Beal Jr., Dee Winters, Brayden Willis, Ronnie Bell & Jalen Graham, w/Latu, Willis, & Bell on the roster bubble for 2024.
