Brandon Aiyuk is a 49er! Pick #25, 2020 NFL Draft

Originally posted by BOI49er:
"The Market" is what you can access (ability to enter, per Webster). We know exactly what that is: It's $14.1m and change, with no guaranteed money beyond that. We are offering Way above "market".

Come on people. Aiyuk Told you what he is going to do. He's "for sure" going to sign with the Niners. He's realistic, so why aren't fans?

The Niners are offering Much more than that. We may go higher. This is a non issue. The Niners aren't playing hardball, offering a Much better deal, and yes they are going to get a deal they can message for other teammates (do fans expect you to object to that, Brandon?, yeah, I know you won't), but also a deal that will lock him up for years. Brandon is getting a much better deal than the "market", locking up a generational wealth deal you have to be an inbecile to walk away from, and I'm saying Brandon is no imbecile, and a deal with a team he does not hate, and can win with, and has a Great young QB he Knows can get him the ball, and you know you will see a "next" contract, and next time with a ring or two on your finger. What's the market then?

Again, we are offering Way above "Market", and Brandon knows it.

Everybody, Chill. Can you spell "Super Bowl"?

That's going to reset Market.

BA isn't accessing the market for this upcoming year - he is negotiating for future years that he isn't under contract.

At worst, the market is $25M-$28M for him cause that's the franchise tag going rate for next season. He wants inline with what the receiver market is going forward.

it benefits him to negotiate this early cause it secures the future and he gets a large signing bonus upfront but if he wants to risk it - he will get more than what he will if he signs this off season.

Originally posted by Montana:
Everyone rest easy..lol I was really breaking a sweat. He signing before too long. TMZ following him around, was that planned? Hehe. BA wants all that coverage. 📺. Next up..Nightly News jk

I wonder if he's doing this additional news coverage to make his name more known so he's more marketable for endorsements. Wouldn't be a bad idea on his part.

i think he will sign something but ultimately, there is no way he isn't here this year at least. So im not super concerned. Just would like us to lock him down for his prime years cause of the connection he has with Brock.

BA will be signed at the price he should be signed at based on the market and based on where he ranks among those signed. He will be paid to slot in amongst Tyreek Hill and Amon St Ra based on his talent level and ability. He won't get JJ money but he will be paid a a top 5 WR and that is that. If he wants more than that we will let him play this year out tag him and likely trade him as we have CMC Kittle Deebo JJ Pearsall and Cowing. That is more than enough mouths to feed after this year's Super Bowl run. We are not forced and we have the leverage to avoid having to do the dumb deal that MIN did

Originally posted by tankle104:
I wonder if he's doing this additional news coverage to make his name more known so he's more marketable for endorsements. Wouldn't be a bad idea on his part.

i think he will sign something but ultimately, there is no way he isn't here this year at least. So im not super concerned. Just would like us to lock him down for his prime years cause of the connection he has with Brock.

I mean, why not get every dolla you can? He just did the Superbowl. Milk it lol. Soon he will be on T-Mobile and Subway commercials..pretending to eat a footlong cookie sticks or whatever the hell that is lol

My latest article showing how the 49ers can indeed keep Aiyuk, Purdy, even Deebo long term, & others.

https://49erscap.com/index.php/2024/06/29/a-look-at-how-the-49ers-can-indeed-keep-brandon-aiyuk-brock-purdy-as-well-as-deebo-samuel-others-long-term/

AB>TMZ

Originally posted by tankle104:

Originally posted by BOI49er:
"The Market" is what you can access (ability to enter, per Webster). We know exactly what that is: It's $14.1m and change, with no guaranteed money beyond that. We are offering Way above "market".

Come on people. Aiyuk Told you what he is going to do. He's "for sure" going to sign with the Niners. He's realistic, so why aren't fans?

The Niners are offering Much more than that. We may go higher. This is a non issue. The Niners aren't playing hardball, offering a Much better deal, and yes they are going to get a deal they can message for other teammates (do fans expect you to object to that, Brandon?, yeah, I know you won't), but also a deal that will lock him up for years. Brandon is getting a much better deal than the "market", locking up a generational wealth deal you have to be an inbecile to walk away from, and I'm saying Brandon is no imbecile, and a deal with a team he does not hate, and can win with, and has a Great young QB he Knows can get him the ball, and you know you will see a "next" contract, and next time with a ring or two on your finger. What's the market then?

Again, we are offering Way above "Market", and Brandon knows it.

Everybody, Chill. Can you spell "Super Bowl"?

That's going to reset Market.

BA isn't accessing the market for this upcoming year - he is negotiating for future years that he isn't under contract.

At worst, the market is $25M-$28M for him cause that's the franchise tag going rate for next season. He wants inline with what the receiver market is going forward.

it benefits him to negotiate this early cause it secures the future and he gets a large signing bonus upfront but if he wants to risk it - he will get more than what he will if he signs this off season.

$25-$28m with no bank account and no guaranteed future income and already being at least $12m in the hole playing for $14m this year is worth less than $26m/yr, or more, with a fat investment account and many years of guaranteed money. Optimistically, yes, he can earn more later, so he should and will get the clock moving on his next contract, because I believe he and his agent are rational and are not fools.

Originally posted by AB81Rules:
My latest article showing how the 49ers can indeed keep Aiyuk, Purdy, even Deebo long term, & others.

https://49erscap.com/index.php/2024/06/29/a-look-at-how-the-49ers-can-indeed-keep-brandon-aiyuk-brock-purdy-as-well-as-deebo-samuel-others-long-term/

that is impressive, thorough stuff, great article.

Originally posted by AB81Rules:
My latest article showing how the 49ers can indeed keep Aiyuk, Purdy, even Deebo long term, & others.

https://49erscap.com/index.php/2024/06/29/a-look-at-how-the-49ers-can-indeed-keep-brandon-aiyuk-brock-purdy-as-well-as-deebo-samuel-others-long-term/

I doubt they keep Deebo. He's the odd man out after this season easily.

https://www.49erswebzone.com/articles/181547-brandon-aiyuk-everybody-wants-49ers/

It was a Pirates hat

Originally posted by BOI49er:

Originally posted by tankle104:

Originally posted by BOI49er:
"The Market" is what you can access (ability to enter, per Webster). We know exactly what that is: It's $14.1m and change, with no guaranteed money beyond that. We are offering Way above "market".

Come on people. Aiyuk Told you what he is going to do. He's "for sure" going to sign with the Niners. He's realistic, so why aren't fans?

The Niners are offering Much more than that. We may go higher. This is a non issue. The Niners aren't playing hardball, offering a Much better deal, and yes they are going to get a deal they can message for other teammates (do fans expect you to object to that, Brandon?, yeah, I know you won't), but also a deal that will lock him up for years. Brandon is getting a much better deal than the "market", locking up a generational wealth deal you have to be an inbecile to walk away from, and I'm saying Brandon is no imbecile, and a deal with a team he does not hate, and can win with, and has a Great young QB he Knows can get him the ball, and you know you will see a "next" contract, and next time with a ring or two on your finger. What's the market then?

Again, we are offering Way above "Market", and Brandon knows it.

Everybody, Chill. Can you spell "Super Bowl"?

That's going to reset Market.

BA isn't accessing the market for this upcoming year - he is negotiating for future years that he isn't under contract.

At worst, the market is $25M-$28M for him cause that's the franchise tag going rate for next season. He wants inline with what the receiver market is going forward.

it benefits him to negotiate this early cause it secures the future and he gets a large signing bonus upfront but if he wants to risk it - he will get more than what he will if he signs this off season.

$25-$28m with no bank account and no guaranteed future income and already being at least $12m in the hole playing for $14m this year is worth less than $26m/yr, or more, with a fat investment account and many years of guaranteed money. Optimistically, yes, he can earn more later, so he should and will get the clock moving on his next contract, because I believe he and his agent are rational and are not fools.

huh? His $14.1M this year is guaranteed. Hypothetically, if he played next year on the tag - that's roughly another $28M fully guaranteed. If we didn't tag him, then he would get a fat contract elsewhere.

worst case scenario for Aiyuk is that he makes $14.1M this year, financially.

it's just a matter of health risk for BA. The reality is that the longer we wait to sign him, the more expensive he will be. If BA is willing to do what Cousins did and risk it health wise, he's going to make a lot more than he would if he signed a contract with us. He could make $40M+ fully guaranteed over the next two years and then sign a fat contract at 28, which is how cousins maximized his money cause he was in the same situation we are with BA.

Ceedee lamb and Chase are still unsigned this off season too. I bet Chase will get something in the
$32M range and lamb will get $30M-$31M, BA Is going to want more than lamb.

so the longer we wait, the more unlikely it is that we sign him, IMO. That or we give him a ton of guaranteed money.

Originally posted by tankle104:

Originally posted by BOI49er:

Originally posted by tankle104:

Originally posted by BOI49er:
"The Market" is what you can access (ability to enter, per Webster). We know exactly what that is: It's $14.1m and change, with no guaranteed money beyond that. We are offering Way above "market".

Come on people. Aiyuk Told you what he is going to do. He's "for sure" going to sign with the Niners. He's realistic, so why aren't fans?

The Niners are offering Much more than that. We may go higher. This is a non issue. The Niners aren't playing hardball, offering a Much better deal, and yes they are going to get a deal they can message for other teammates (do fans expect you to object to that, Brandon?, yeah, I know you won't), but also a deal that will lock him up for years. Brandon is getting a much better deal than the "market", locking up a generational wealth deal you have to be an inbecile to walk away from, and I'm saying Brandon is no imbecile, and a deal with a team he does not hate, and can win with, and has a Great young QB he Knows can get him the ball, and you know you will see a "next" contract, and next time with a ring or two on your finger. What's the market then?

Again, we are offering Way above "Market", and Brandon knows it.

Everybody, Chill. Can you spell "Super Bowl"?

That's going to reset Market.

BA isn't accessing the market for this upcoming year - he is negotiating for future years that he isn't under contract.

At worst, the market is $25M-$28M for him cause that's the franchise tag going rate for next season. He wants inline with what the receiver market is going forward.

it benefits him to negotiate this early cause it secures the future and he gets a large signing bonus upfront but if he wants to risk it - he will get more than what he will if he signs this off season.

$25-$28m with no bank account and no guaranteed future income and already being at least $12m in the hole playing for $14m this year is worth less than $26m/yr, or more, with a fat investment account and many years of guaranteed money. Optimistically, yes, he can earn more later, so he should and will get the clock moving on his next contract, because I believe he and his agent are rational and are not fools.

huh? His $14.1M this year is guaranteed. Hypothetically, if he played next year on the tag - that's roughly another $28M fully guaranteed. If we didn't tag him, then he would get a fat contract elsewhere.

worst case scenario for Aiyuk is that he makes $14.1M this year, financially.

it's just a matter of health risk for BA. The reality is that the longer we wait to sign him, the more expensive he will be. If BA is willing to do what Cousins did and risk it health wise, he's going to make a lot more than he would if he signed a contract with us. He could make $40M+ fully guaranteed over the next two years and then sign a fat contract at 28, which is how cousins maximized his money cause h12me was in the same situation we are with BA.

Ceedee lamb and Chase are still unsigned this off season too. I bet Chase will get something in theWe
$32M range and lamb will get $30M-$31M, BA Is going to want more than lamb.

so the longer we wait, the more unlikely it is that we sign him, IMO. That or we give him a ton of guaranteed money.

We're not waiting. We have a large contract on the table for him now. He's not waiting, imo because he see this situation more clearly. Seems to me he's telling us for sure he wants to come back and to chill.

You say his worst case is he makes $14,1m this year, but then you say he'll make a lot more if he doesn't sign a contract with us. If he doesn't sign a contract with us, he Will be playing the 5th year of his contract. We're offering him $26m on average, and we all understand he'll get much of his cash up front. But even not counting that, $14m is $12m less than $26m, and even if he thinks he can do better later, it's doubtful he'll ever cover that $12m difference in these contract years, and meanwhile that injury risk is certainly real and on him beyond the current year.

Cousins was Not in the same situation. His contract was up, so he at least got the tag value from the first year. That's the difference, plus if he won't sign, we can stretch this out Three years on two tag years, and still save us a ton less than the $104m we are offering him. Don't forget, we are offering Aiyuk a contract a year before his current contract is up, with the commensurate raise we don't have to do.

I think this proves even in the short run, he's better off signing now. In the long term, your logic that contracts will go up still applies, as the cap will be still higher in 4 years than in a year or two, and he can't even control getting to free agency then, and he's certainly young enough to get another contract if he starts this one now. I believe he will, and all this consternation will become a waste of time.

Originally posted by BOI49er:
We're not waiting. We have a large contract on the table for him now. He's not waiting, imo because he see this situation more clearly. Seems to me he's telling us for sure he wants to come back and to chill.

You say his worst case is he makes $14,1m this year, but then you say he'll make a lot more if he doesn't sign a contract with us. If he doesn't sign a contract with us, he Will be playing the 5th year of his contract. We're offering him $26m on average, and we all understand he'll get much of his cash up front. But even not counting that, $14m is $12m less than $26m, and even if he thinks he can do better later, it's doubtful he'll ever cover that $12m difference in these contract years, and meanwhile that injury risk is certainly real and on him beyond the current year.

Cousins was Not in the same situation. His contract was up, so he at least got the tag value from the first year. That's the difference, plus if he won't sign, we can stretch this out Three years on two tag years, and still save us a ton less than the $104m we are offering him. Don't forget, we are offering Aiyuk a contract a year before his current contract is up, with the commensurate raise we don't have to do.

I think this proves even in the short run, he's better off signing now. In the long term, your logic that contracts will go up still applies, as the cap will be still higher in 4 years than in a year or two, and he can't even control getting to free agency then, and he's certainly young enough to get another contract if he starts this one now. I believe he will, and all this consternation will become a waste of time.

He is making $14m this year, an extension will only lower that, so not sure where you are coming up with the $26m for this year.
He will however get a signing bonus, most likely majority of his year 1 money. But this is year 5, and will remain year 5. Next year will be year 1.
And he may not get that money up front, it may get locked in an escrow account depending on the terms. So the jump start investments doesn't work either. Also the niners likely can not afford to pay him the franchise tag, which gives him a lot of leverage.

His baseline is 14, 25, 30. Year 5 franchise 1 and 2. So your $26yr is less than his next 2 years would be with no extension. So anything less than $55m in new money is him taking a paycut.

And you are using 2 points that are contrary. He should want money now so sign this, and in 4 years when the market goes up he can get his money. But this is while you are talking about paying less than market now.
He can make 14 this year and get a 4yr contract next year for $120 with $70 in gtd money. So over the next 3 years make $84m or your $66m. Even assuming a great 10% ROI it is only a one year headstart so next year he will have $73m which is still less than 84. And that 84 can be in a no tax state which is an immediate 11+% gain.

Originally posted by jdt84_2:

Originally posted by BOI49er:
We're not waiting. We have a large contract on the table for him now. He's not waiting, imo because he see this situation more clearly. Seems to me he's telling us for sure he wants to come back and to chill.

You say his worst case is he makes $14,1m this year, but then you say he'll make a lot more if he doesn't sign a contract with us. If he doesn't sign a contract with us, he Will be playing the 5th year of his contract. We're offering him $26m on average, and we all understand he'll get much of his cash up front. But even not counting that, $14m is $12m less than $26m, and even if he thinks he can do better later, it's doubtful he'll ever cover that $12m difference in these contract years, and meanwhile that injury risk is certainly real and on him beyond the current year.

Cousins was Not in the same situation. His contract was up, so he at least got the tag value from the first year. That's the difference, plus if he won't sign, we can stretch this out Three years on two tag years, and still save us a ton less than the $104m we are offering him. Don't forget, we are offering Aiyuk a contract a year before his current contract is up, with the commensurate raise we don't have to do.

I think this proves even in the short run, he's better off signing now. In the long term, your logic that contracts will go up still applies, as the cap will be still higher in 4 years than in a year or two, and he can't even control getting to free agency then, and he's certainly young enough to get another contract if he starts this one now. I believe he will, and all this consternation will become a waste of time.

He is making $14m this year, an extension will only lower that, so not sure where you are coming up with the $26m for this year.
He will however get a signing bonus, most likely majority of his year 1 money. But this is year 5, and will remain year 5. Next year will be year 1.
And he may not get that money up front, it may get locked in an escrow account depending on the terms. So the jump start investments doesn't work either. Also the niners likely can not afford to pay him the franchise tag, which gives him a lot of leverage.

His baseline is 14, 25, 30. Year 5 franchise 1 and 2. So your $26yr is less than his next 2 years would be with no extension. So anything less than $55m in new money is him taking a paycut.

And you are using 2 points that are contrary. He should want money now so sign this, and in 4 years when the market goes up he can get his money. But this is while you are talking about paying less than market now.
He can make 14 this year and get a 4yr contract next year for $120 with $70 in gtd money. So over the next 3 years make $84m or your $66m. Even assuming a great 10% ROI it is only a one year headstart so next year he will have $73m which is still less than 84. And that 84 can be in a no tax state which is an immediate 11+% gain.

Right. Lol
aiyuks decision that he has to make is how comfortable is he with risk, meaning getting potentially hurt. If he's comfortable playing this year out and banking that he won't get hurt - that's how he will make the most money.

if he plays this year out - waits for CeeDee & Chase to sign contracts and whoever else (especially if he has another top season), he will sign for a ton more money next off season.

its just the risk between securing some money now vs gambling that he won't get seriously hurt.

Originally posted by jdt84_2:
He is making $14m this year, an extension will only lower that, so not sure where you are coming up with the $26m for this year.
He will however get a signing bonus, most likely majority of his year 1 money. But this is year 5, and will remain year 5. Next year will be year 1.
And he may not get that money up front, it may get locked in an escrow account depending on the terms. So the jump start investments doesn't work either. Also the niners likely can not afford to pay him the franchise tag, which gives him a lot of leverage.

His baseline is 14, 25, 30. Year 5 franchise 1 and 2. So your $26yr is less than his next 2 years would be with no extension. So anything less than $55m in new money is him taking a paycut.

And you are using 2 points that are contrary. He should want money now so sign this, and in 4 years when the market goes up he can get his money. But this is while you are talking about paying less than market now.
He can make 14 this year and get a 4yr contract next year for $120 with $70 in gtd money. So over the next 3 years make $84m or your $66m. Even assuming a great 10% ROI it is only a one year headstart so next year he will have $73m which is still less than 84. And that 84 can be in a no tax state which is an immediate 11+% gain.

An extension lowers his cap hit while his cash flow increases for 2024. Using the 116.825M/4 extension described in the post linked above (sry, can't link) for expository purposes, Aiyuk would have a minimized P5 Salary of $1.125M for 2024 and a signing bonus of $25M. While year 1 of the extension wouldn't start until 2025, Aiyuk gets that signing bonus this year at whatever payout date gets worked out. For cap accounting purposes though, that signing bonus is considered paid as soon as he signs the extension. The signing bonus would be prorated over 5 years, resulting in a $6.125M cap hit the 49ers would account for in 2024 while his cash earnings for 2024 would go from $14M to $26.125M.

The league doesn't require exercised guaranteed money be put into escrow until the end of March AFTER they do their yearly accounting. The yearly accounting is done around the end of January. So any extension for any player between February 1, 2024 and January 31, 2025, wouldn't need the money escrowed until March 31, 2025. By then, his 2024 Salary plus signing bonus would have already been paid out, thus not needing to be escrowed.

Players pay taxes on game-related checks (salary, per-game bonuses) based on the location of the game. Some states even offer credits to athletes. At the end of the day, players will end up spending the difference no matter where they go (other taxes exist besides income tax) and should just take the highest bid for their services.