Originally posted by tankle104:
Originally posted by jdt84_2:
Originally posted by BOI49er:
We're not waiting. We have a large contract on the table for him now. He's not waiting, imo because he see this situation more clearly. Seems to me he's telling us for sure he wants to come back and to chill.
You say his worst case is he makes $14,1m this year, but then you say he'll make a lot more if he doesn't sign a contract with us. If he doesn't sign a contract with us, he Will be playing the 5th year of his contract. We're offering him $26m on average, and we all understand he'll get much of his cash up front. But even not counting that, $14m is $12m less than $26m, and even if he thinks he can do better later, it's doubtful he'll ever cover that $12m difference in these contract years, and meanwhile that injury risk is certainly real and on him beyond the current year.
Cousins was Not in the same situation. His contract was up, so he at least got the tag value from the first year. That's the difference, plus if he won't sign, we can stretch this out Three years on two tag years, and still save us a ton less than the $104m we are offering him. Don't forget, we are offering Aiyuk a contract a year before his current contract is up, with the commensurate raise we don't have to do.
I think this proves even in the short run, he's better off signing now. In the long term, your logic that contracts will go up still applies, as the cap will be still higher in 4 years than in a year or two, and he can't even control getting to free agency then, and he's certainly young enough to get another contract if he starts this one now. I believe he will, and all this consternation will become a waste of time.
He is making $14m this year, an extension will only lower that, so not sure where you are coming up with the $26m for this year.
He will however get a signing bonus, most likely majority of his year 1 money. But this is year 5, and will remain year 5. Next year will be year 1.
And he may not get that money up front, it may get locked in an escrow account depending on the terms. So the jump start investments doesn't work either. Also the niners likely can not afford to pay him the franchise tag, which gives him a lot of leverage.
His baseline is 14, 25, 30. Year 5 franchise 1 and 2. So your $26yr is less than his next 2 years would be with no extension. So anything less than $55m in new money is him taking a paycut.
And you are using 2 points that are contrary. He should want money now so sign this, and in 4 years when the market goes up he can get his money. But this is while you are talking about paying less than market now.
He can make 14 this year and get a 4yr contract next year for $120 with $70 in gtd money. So over the next 3 years make $84m or your $66m. Even assuming a great 10% ROI it is only a one year headstart so next year he will have $73m which is still less than 84. And that 84 can be in a no tax state which is an immediate 11+% gain.
Right. Lol
aiyuks decision that he has to make is how comfortable is he with risk, meaning getting potentially hurt. If he's comfortable playing this year out and banking that he won't get hurt - that's how he will make the most money.
if he plays this year out - waits for CeeDee & Chase to sign contracts and whoever else (especially if he has another top season), he will sign for a ton more money next off season.
its just the risk between securing some money now vs gambling that he won't get seriously hurt.
Two seasons. We will tag him and it's still less than what he'd get on a new deal so .....good luck lol