Are the Niners better of worse than their Super Bowl team after the draft?

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:
I see.

The rookie who has not played a snap in professional football is better than 2 time all pro and perrenniel top 15 league leading emmanuel sanders.

got it.

The odds of aiyuk having an AV rating anywhere close to sanders is less than 10%. Probably much much less.

But, we are definitely younger.

Emmanuel Sanders was not a perennial top 15 receiver. in 2017 he was ranked 81st and 73rd in receptions and yards. In 2018 he was ranked 28th and 26th in yards and receptions. He was an aging #2 type receiver who hasn't had a 1000 yard season since 2016. Don't get me wrong, I really liked Sanders, but he is not a top tier receiver anymore.

I believe the odds of Aiyuk having a similar season to Sanders is greater than 10%.

One of the benefits to having a young team that is that you have more players that are still taking big steps up with each year of development. Contrast this with a more veteran laden team which is just working their tales off just to stay the same or achieve very marginal gains. For this reason I believe we have managed to set a roster that is on par with last years super bowl team and by the playoffs should be markedly better than what we took into the playoffs last year. This is incredibly impressive considering that we have done so without mortgaging the future. This team has the bones to be upper tier for a long time. NFC is brutally tough though and we play in easily the most competitive division so we need health and a few coin flips to go our way to get back.

I think we are in a similar position to compete. The replacement of Staley and Person with Williams and Brundskill might be an improvement. There is a chance that Aiyuk and Hurd could come close to replicating the production of Sanders. The DL was the strongest and deepest unit on the team. Covering up the loss of Buckner with our depth and a top tier prospect should keep us competitive.

We might be a little worse on paper, but that shouldn't prevent us from being just as competitive.

Originally posted by KID9R:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
I wouldn't say they're better. I mean it's pretty freaking hard to be better following a super bowl.

That said they got younger and cheaper. They have young guys who will improve.

SF was one of the most injured teams last yr as well.

No we weren't. That was the healthiest I've ever remembered our team being throughout the season.

Thats like saying they were the youngest person in a nursing home. They were healthier than the previous two years but that isnt saying much when the team has been in the top 3 IR users for the past few years. Not as many guys went to the IR like last year but it's not like we experienced much good luck in the health department.

We should be better. The Trent Williams trade was huge. He's an elite left tackle. Deebo will have another year under his belt, and with Kinlaw I think we'll still have the best d line in football. We still have the bear DJ Jones also

We have another year of consistency. The same scheme and coordinators on both sides of the ball, that is priceless

Biggest reason: the most important player on the team is going into year two post acl and he should be much better. Jimmy has another year in the same offense and he should be better physically. No early learning curve. If he is much better, and he should be, I would take our chances against anyone

seems like we've gotten better.

Originally posted by TheRickestRick:

Originally posted by KID9R:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
I wouldn't say they're better. I mean it's pretty freaking hard to be better following a super bowl.

That said they got younger and cheaper. They have young guys who will improve.

SF was one of the most injured teams last yr as well.

No we weren't. That was the healthiest I've ever remembered our team being throughout the season.

Thats like saying they were the youngest person in a nursing home. They were healthier than the previous two years but that isnt saying much when the team has been in the top 3 IR users for the past few years. Not as many guys went to the IR like last year but it's not like we experienced much good luck in the health department.

lol We were actually one of the healthiest teams in the league last year.
https://bookies.com/news/true-gambling-impact-of-injuries-heading-into-2020-nfl-playoffs

Really can't answer this until they play some games. As a guess without playing Idk how you can say they are better. They lost Buck and Sanders and replaced them with two rookies. I hope they are better and they have the potential to be better but we won't know if they are until after a few games. So right now I say worse (although I think the games will prove they are better).

We did the best we could considering our salary cap position. First step is do we have enough to win the division. Have we learned enough with our young group the able to maintain with the target on our backs? If we win this division then it's going to come down to us and NO to make the Super bowl. Can we win that battle of attrition. One thing we have going for us is that we don't have an early bye then have to play 13 weeks straight of football going into the playoffs. That accounted for a ton of injuries the schedule we had

Originally posted by IHATELOWELLCOHN:

Really can't answer this until they play some games. As a guess without playing Idk how you can say they are better. They lost Buck and Sanders and replaced them with two rookies. I hope they are better and they have the potential to be better but we won't know if they are until after a few games. So right now I say worse (although I think the games will prove they are better).

Experience and a friendlier schedule

While im not sure we make the SB without Sanders, he wasn't the HUGE impact on the field that some seem want to make him out to be besides a few games. Where his value came was in his veteran presence and that value has already been exploited. I think Aiyuk could easily contribute similar production to Sanders in a 49ers uniform. 36/502 and 3TD's in 10 total games. Deebo put up more #'s for us 57/802 3TDs' as a rookie though he did play in 5 more games, but also a rookie.

I think we replaced Sanders contributions easily imo, the loss will be Buck. If we can have guys like Blair and Jones stay healthy and with the addition of kinlaw, I think Bucks' production last year can be replaced as well.

I think at worst we are as good as last year.

Originally posted by KID9R:

Originally posted by TheRickestRick:

Originally posted by KID9R:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
I wouldn't say they're better. I mean it's pretty freaking hard to be better following a super bowl.

That said they got younger and cheaper. They have young guys who will improve.

SF was one of the most injured teams last yr as well.

No we weren't. That was the healthiest I've ever remembered our team being throughout the season.

Thats like saying they were the youngest person in a nursing home. They were healthier than the previous two years but that isnt saying much when the team has been in the top 3 IR users for the past few years. Not as many guys went to the IR like last year but it's not like we experienced much good luck in the health department.

lol We were actually one of the healthiest teams in the league last year.
https://bookies.com/news/true-gambling-impact-of-injuries-heading-into-2020-nfl-playoffs

Context... We got healthy at the right time and most of the injuries werent IR landing... getting healthy at the right time was the gist of every article leading up to the playoffs lol. That article mentions GB as having some of the most injuries but when we played them... their health and not having a single person on the injury report was one of the topics the entire week leading up to the game. I'd be more interested in comparing games missed by starters, that article definitely isnt taking that as a metric.

In terms of starters, lost both tackles, RBs,WR, FB, LB, TE, C and Safeties for multiple games. Blair and DJ, our LBs... the team was battling the injury bug pretty hard but luckily most werent season ending and healed right before the playoffs. It's hard to remember playing a team we were healthier than outside of the Steelers. Every team has injuries but there werent many we played that had as many starters missing as we did before the playoffs.

Originally posted by KID9R:

Originally posted by TheRickestRick:

Originally posted by KID9R:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
I wouldn't say they're better. I mean it's pretty freaking hard to be better following a super bowl.

That said they got younger and cheaper. They have young guys who will improve.

SF was one of the most injured teams last yr as well.

No we weren't. That was the healthiest I've ever remembered our team being throughout the season.

Thats like saying they were the youngest person in a nursing home. They were healthier than the previous two years but that isnt saying much when the team has been in the top 3 IR users for the past few years. Not as many guys went to the IR like last year but it's not like we experienced much good luck in the health department.

lol We were actually one of the healthiest teams in the league last year.
https://bookies.com/news/true-gambling-impact-of-injuries-heading-into-2020-nfl-playoffs

Not arguing one way or another, but that seems to be a superficial overall stat if they're just comparing total number of injured players without regard to length of injury, missed games, or injured reserve.

I thnk we are markedly worse, but still a SB contender.

Seems like the proper question is looking at both where the team was at this point last year combined with what it was at the end of the season. My take by position group:

1. QB -- better hopefully now that Jimmy has more starts under his belt.

2. WR-TE -- I think the current group is better now that Deebo has experience compared to after the draft last year; however I really can't say this group is better than they were at the end of the year given Sanders leaving.

3. RB -- Breida is gone, Coleman had some injuries, probably not as good, though it's pretty close.

4. OL -- better. Staley was a tremendous player, loved him. Trent Williams, however, is four years younger and like Staley is an elite player. The emergence of Brunskill last season was huge, a really good player he's an upgrade at one of the guard positions. Richburg is a question mark.

Offense overall -- a little bit better overall with Jimmy having more experience and some marginal improvement at the o-line.

DL -- Not as good. Armstead improved during the year. Bosa was great and more than worthy of the #2 overall pick. But Buckner is gone and Ronald Blair tore his ACL last year. People forget how great Blair was playing, he was getting about as many snaps as anyone other Buckner and Bosa. I feel like his loss hurt the team quite a bit. That said, if we scored on Kinlaw then I think this unit could still be dominant. Kinlaw's highlights come against some very good o-lines while he did not play along with a ton of bluechippers. I LOVE that kind of prospect -- great against elite competition while you're the guy the opposing team tries to take out of the game. Contrast that with Alabama where everyone is surrounded by other 5 star recruits.

LB -- A little better. Warner has another year under his belt and Greenlaw has some experience.

Secondary -- Not as good. Everyone is a year older, Witherspoon did not look good at the end of last year. Love Mosely. Have injury concerns in the secondary. Would like to have seen a move at Safety in free agency. I don't like drafting Safeties in the first round and it's always a iffy after the 3rd round or so. I have concerns about secondary depth. Of course, having a dominant d-line can make an average secondary look elite.