What's Kittles Value?

Originally posted by tjd808185:

Originally posted by random49er:
Coaches would literally fistfight over the right to sign George Kittle,..if they could. I think it's just that you selfishly want the most we can get out of all of our great players so we can win as many games as possible,...which isin't at all a surprising view of a fan. I'd just suggest a lil more realism,...Kittle's extremely valuable and players like him dont grow on trees.

Franchises would fight over him on the open market but that number still isn't going to be 16 mil a year right now. Revenues in the NFL are likely to decrease by 1/3rd and attendance could struggle for years afterwards.
Cap wise they'll likely be borrowing against future years so they don't have to slash the cap but that explosion of $ just isn't there anymore. Dak, Mahomes, Kittle. Anyone looking for a beyond record shattering new contract is likely going to be disappointed.

Kittle is the best tight end in football by a considerable margin and he should be paid accordingly but it really needs to be in tight end range.

(I defer to AB81 on what facts I state here)
I *think* there is some sort of calibration every couple of years. I'd like to say four. But basically each team *Has* to spend a certain amount of money by a certain date. The CBA has just been renewed, and so I think those numbers zero out (or are supposed to zero out) after the end of one CBA and the beginning of the next. That means that beginning in 2021, the arrearages or the deficits begin, and you can deficit spend on the cap for a couple of years before it begins to catch up to you and you have to artifically lower your cap spending below the average NFL to catch up, so to speak. So the time to overspend if there is one, is this next year, despite an almost certain reduction in the cap, because the next years after that, the economy should improve and the cap should bounce back and continue it's annual increase. At least that's what I'd be thinking if I was Paraag and Kittle's agent.

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
I think i come down on this as stated but also agree with Random's sentiment , "if you aren't going to pay a guy like Kittle, then who are you going to pay.?"

It isn't like we have several of these running around loose, on the sideline. We don't. We have some superb talent, picked by both JL and KS, which as noted are going to have to get paid. Understood. But if we have to go back 30 some yrs to find another example like Kittle, the Joe and Jerry yrs, then i think we have to raise the bar for this unique one of a kind TE/WR/RB, who was rated highest (in non QBs) in the NFL, meaning he graded out as the best player in the NFL. That is a rare honor. And he was just several 1/100s off being even better when QBs were added in....he trailed Mahomes by just a tiny percentage point.

Note: when i first read this off the PFF site, Kittle was a fraction of a percentage point rated at 95.0 just behind Mahomes. In an article written by Bonilla on our site he lists Mahomes, Aaron Donald, Julio, and Quentin Nelson rated above George. That's fine, but i read off their site when this first came out that Kittle was just a hair behind top dog, Mahomes. So maybe they changed their calculations or maybe they added something else ....point is everyone recognizes the work PRODUCT (ie what George puts out on the field) as superstar quality. Best in the NFL, would be another way to put it. Just note what Bonilla quoted is contrary to what i read some 4 months ago ...on their site.

Will we have to wait another 30 yrs for another Montana, Rice, Kittle to come around, or do we see more headed our way. Nope, this is an aberration, and has to be treated as such. No one here would argue about kittle's salary if we didn't have others we need to pay. But point is WE got kittle, and we need to pay him to stay here...without wrecking a big chunk of the team. We can cut corners here and there, shave some salary off in different places, but i wonder.: just how bad is the NFL income for the yr going to hammered by covid and related issues? If cap next yr is substantially less, then we won't have money to pay Kittle, and best bet for George would be to tag him and wait for NFL $$$ to go back up.

If all stadiums were open to all, i wonder just how many would actually show up? NFL income almost surely has to dive and in that case, Kittle doesn't want to e redoing his contract at that time, in that he could get clobbered by the covid. But again we come to random's "if we don't pay kittle, who do we pay?" That is about as fair a question as there could be. And it has been over 30 yrs since we had that good showing,

Regarding the cap, I think the economy is recovering - it's not like a an earthquake or a tornado destroyed the economy and equipment and buildings. The virus freaked everybody out and the polices enacted basically stopped the economy dead in it's tracks. I think - if the policies change - and there has to be a will to do it, the economy can bounce back almost as soon as the Virus policies will be retracted. I don't think it will depend on a vaccine either. Eboa, Haunta Virus, and I think even SARS virus *still* do not have a vaccine (I defer to the MD Doctors on the Boards on these facts). But even without vaccines to these viruses, we haven't shut the economy down because we don't have a vaccine. So vaccine or not, sometime around (taking a stab at it) the beginning the usual football season, people will be tired of all the virus policies and just reduce them to the point the economy will come roaring back. I think by next year - the economy should be back to full strength if not stronger. So the cap will take a hit, but probably a one year hit, and then after that - it might just double in size if the economy explodes -- specially if a vaccine is found. (personally I don't think a vaccine will be found because it's basically a flu/cold virus and they haven't been able to cure the common cold in ages) Just my opinion.

Originally posted by LasVegasWally:
In the end, I'm confident he'll be a Niner for life and the numbers will be worked out.

AGree. I'm not too worried either.

Originally posted by Polkadots:

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
^^^ nah, NY, i'm Aware of that. It is just that someone saying "we can't pay over 20% of top TE in league" isn't necessarily right either. The market seems to be somewhere between what Julio (top paid WR) makes ($20 + change) and what's his name top TE who is making $10.5 per. As i said earlier, i would ask to pay less but settle for $15.

The highest paid TE is being paid 10.6M. That is the market. The market is not between Julio and Henry. 15M is an absurd number to pay a TE when the going rate for the "best" TE in football (since you can typically assume salary paid for services rendered represents quality) is 70% the number you suggest.

The agent is trying to *creatively* redefine the *market.* Will it work? I don't know. TE's *are* pass catchers as well as run and pass blockers, and it's a creative argument to redefine Kittle being really a WR or a Left Tackle. I think if the agent was dealing with a Fangio or Joe Woods - he may have a shot at selling that viewpoint, but Kyle's not going to bite on that - he knows this offense too well to fall for obfuscations like that.

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Originally posted by Giedi:
The agent is trying to *creatively* redefine the *market.* Will it work? I don't know. TE's *are* pass catchers as well as run and pass blockers, and it's a creative argument to redefine Kittle being really a WR or a Left Tackle. I think if the agent was dealing with a Fangio or Joe Woods - he may have a shot at selling that viewpoint, but Kyle's not going to bite on that - he knows this offense too well to fall for obfuscations like that.

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I would go the LT market and get some Tunsil $$$

Originally posted by 49ers81:
I think the bolded line is the salient point of this issue. I think everyone agrees that George needs to be paid. The question remains how much. I have no problem with them resetting the TE market for George $11 million or $12 million a year perhaps. But when people start throwing around numbers like $15 million or more then you have to start asking yourself how many additional players is Kittle worth. Lynch and Shanahan have both made the point that they are trying to build the team for the long haul,so that they can be competitive over the course of many years not just for the two or three year window that cap constraints usually allow for. There is little benefit of having a superstar player on your team if you can't afford to put a decent supporting cast around him but you can continue to compete if you have a roster of good players who you are able to rotate through the system.

The latter is the way the Patriots have done it and the former is the path that the Lions seem to have taken, and that has been, at least in one instance, without the constraints of the cap. Barry Sanders was the best running back of his generation, and you can certainly make the case that he was perhaps one of the top five backs of all time, but the Lions never finished better that 9-7 while he was playing. The same is true of Megatron. A top of the line WR who the Lions could never build a decent team around. Now a lot of that has to do with the general incompetence of the Lion's organization and perhaps is not directly related to the amount that they paid either of those guys, but the idea is the same. Is it better to have one superstar or a roster of solid players.

I think that, generally speaking, Lynch and Shanahan have shown that they have a better grasp of the team building process than the Lions have ever shown. Have there been some missteps, you bet, but the bottom line is that they rebuilt one of the worst rosters in the league in two years and have the team in a position to legitimately compete for the playoffs. It sucks that they had to move Buckner but it put them in a position to draft Kinlaw who they had targeted as a guy who could make an impact on their defensive line, which they have decided is what they want to be the strength of their team. Now they will have Kinlaw for five years, will he be as steady and durable as Buckner, hard to say, but they had a vision for what they want the team to be and trading Buck helped them to try and realize that vision.

To a certain extent the same logic applies to Kittle. They drafted Woerner specifically for what he brings to the team as a blocker in the running game. They have Dwelley who has demonstrated the ability to be at least a competent receiver. Are either of them Kittle, no, but together they can perhaps make up some of what George brings to the team on his own. At times like this I also go back to what Bill Walsh said, you can scheme offense but you need talent on defense. It would truly suck if Kittle's agent decided to price him out of the 49ers budget but the compensation they could get for him in return would allow them find other players who could help keep them competitive moving forward. For the record I REALLY want Kittle to stay, just not at the expense of the rest of the team.

Agree with the Bold. No *one* TE can replace Kittle - so he *should* be paid as the highest TE in the NFL simply because he's the best - bar none. I don't think there is any real dispute to that. But Kittle *can* be replaced, just as Joe was replaced by Steve, Staley with Trent. In this case it's taken a ton of years but there have been some credible QB's like Jeff Garcia (and for a very short while - Kaepernick). Kittle can be replaced by a combination of WR's TE's and OLinemen -for what he does in this offense. If he's going to overprice himself, then the F-tag and Free Agency will serve to restrain his over valuation. Those facts, I think, the Agent simply cannot make disappear. It's a serious limitation to his ability to overvalue Kittle.

Originally posted by Polkadots:

Originally posted by Giedi:
The agent is trying to *creatively* redefine the *market.* Will it work? I don't know. TE's *are* pass catchers as well as run and pass blockers, and it's a creative argument to redefine Kittle being really a WR or a Left Tackle. I think if the agent was dealing with a Fangio or Joe Woods - he may have a shot at selling that viewpoint, but Kyle's not going to bite on that - he knows this offense too well to fall for obfuscations like that.

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I would go the LT market and get some Tunsil $$$

I'll go with that if they can front-load the hell out of that contract. Say 50% of the guaranteed payments go in, in year 1 (or something like that).

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:

I think i come down on this as stated but also agree with Random's sentiment , "if you aren't going to pay a guy like Kittle, then who are you going to pay.?"

It isn't like we have several of these running around loose, on the sideline. We don't. We have some superb talent, picked by both JL and KS, which as noted are going to have to get paid. Understood. But if we have to go back 30 some yrs to find another example like Kittle, the Joe and Jerry yrs, then i think we have to raise the bar for this unique one of a kind TE/WR/RB, who was rated highest (in non QBs) in the NFL, meaning he graded out as the best player in the NFL. That is a rare honor. And he was just several 1/100s off being even better when QBs were added in....he trailed Mahomes by just a tiny percentage point.

Note: when i first read this off the PFF site, Kittle was a fraction of a percentage point rated at 95.0 just behind Mahomes. In an article written by Bonilla on our site he lists Mahomes, Aaron Donald, Julio, and Quentin Nelson rated above George. That's fine, but i read off their site when this first came out that Kittle was just a hair behind top dog, Mahomes. So maybe they changed their calculations or maybe they added something else ....point is everyone recognizes the work PRODUCT (ie what George puts out on the field) as superstar quality. Best in the NFL, would be another way to put it. Just note what Bonilla quoted is contrary to what i read some 4 months ago ...on their site.

Will we have to wait another 30 yrs for another Montana, Rice, Kittle to come around, or do we see more headed our way. Nope, this is an aberration, and has to be treated as such. No one here would argue about kittle's salary if we didn't have others we need to pay. But point is WE got kittle, and we need to pay him to stay here...without wrecking a big chunk of the team. We can cut corners here and there, shave some salary off in different places, but i wonder.: just how bad is the NFL income for the yr going to hammered by covid and related issues? If cap next yr is substantially less, then we won't have money to pay Kittle, and best bet for George would be to tag him and wait for NFL $$$ to go back up.

If all stadiums were open to all, i wonder just how many would actually show up? NFL income almost surely has to dive and in that case, Kittle doesn't want to e redoing his contract at that time, in that he could get clobbered by the covid. But again we come to random's "if we don't pay kittle, who do we pay?" That is about as fair a question as there could be. And it has been over 30 yrs since we had that good showing,

Regarding the cap, I think the economy is recovering - it's not like a an earthquake or a tornado destroyed the economy and equipment and buildings. The virus freaked everybody out and the polices enacted basically stopped the economy dead in it's tracks. I think - if the policies change - and there has to be a will to do it, the economy can bounce back almost as soon as the Virus policies will be retracted. I don't think it will depend on a vaccine either. Eboa, Haunta Virus, and I think even SARS virus *still* do not have a vaccine (I defer to the MD Doctors on the Boards on these facts). But even without vaccines to these viruses, we haven't shut the economy down because we don't have a vaccine. So vaccine or not, sometime around (taking a stab at it) the beginning the usual football season, people will be tired of all the virus policies and just reduce them to the point the economy will come roaring back. I think by next year - the economy should be back to full strength if not stronger. So the cap will take a hit, but probably a one year hit, and then after that - it might just double in size if the economy explodes -- specially if a vaccine is found. (personally I don't think a vaccine will be found because it's basically a flu/cold virus and they haven't been able to cure the common cold in ages) Just my opinion.

Had i read this yesterday, i would have disagreed. To wake up this a.m. and see we just added several million jobs (expectations were to lose something in that range), is a huge ...a terrific surprise . Most of those came not from new jobs but from workers who had been furloughed. This was especially critical in small business jobs, the largest employer in the US. Now...i'm Not so sure. Could it really end up being a "V" recovery? Hard to say because no one has seen anything like this before, where the country was just shut down. Unemployment dropped to 13.3%. That doesn't mean there isn't a lot of hurt out there in job market but still, it is going in right direction.

If this continues, (rapid return of jobs), and somehow we don't get a rebound in covid cases/deaths, then Giedi may very well have it right. Right this moment , it is gratifying to see that big a chunk of jobs return. Without jobs we go nowhere. So lots to be thankful for this morning. As it relates to NFL, we'll see. Like most others, i still think revenues will be way down, especially because we already know that early in season, Ballparks will be empty. Capwise we are talking about 2021, which is dependent on NFL income this yr. It just has to be down.


As for the top paid , TE, Henry setting the market at $10.5 mil per, maybe he sets the market, maybe he doesn't. Certainly he is current top end TE, but a 20% bump would be in the $12 mil + range. Maybe that, and not $15 is the max high end for George, and even at $12 mil that is a big hick on cap, if revenues this NFL yr are down...if WAY down...mmmm...that would be interesting. Still if every team has to meet it, it's fair,, and some might say, "Great, these guys are way overpaid already". Surely there is some sentiment for this.

As for Kittle, like others, i hope his agent is blowing smoke, and if decr NFL revenues actually come to pass, then George might be lucky to get $10.5. Sentimentally, i just want to keep him, just like i wanted to keep Buck....only later did i get over the DeFo trade, and yes, it was wise. I was sure it would be Arik, but no question, the F.O got it right. I could be dead wrong here, also, but with decr revenues, it is just inconceivable that cap is not going down. The surprising drop in unemployment numbers, however, makes this a bit less certain. The covid issue makes it a tad more certain.

Whether Geo gets $12 mil or $15 mil , or who knows, even less due to cap decr, i still feel the guy is the heart of this talented group and it is key to keep him here. If cap is substantially down, then my guess is George's agent waits til 2022 to negotiate, and we just tag him and wait for NFL to return to "normal" ....whatever that is.. (Actually, we don't have to do anything as he is under contract another couple yrs)/

The wise sentiment on WZ is correct from financial standpoint, as i mentioned above we can't overpay if it results in losing 2, 3 or 4 other necessary players. Still, i believe F.O does what it has to do to keep Geo....up to a point. And no one here knows how much can be cut elsewhere to pad Kittle's offer, nor does anyone know what actually can be offered...and this will be totally dependent upon just how much NFL revenues get hit. But it HAS to be less... perhaps that makes the case for not negotiating anymore this yr, IDK.

Ultimately, we have some dead wood on payroll and those guys will probably be cut, freeing up some cap space. No need to name them, most know who that includes. So, yes there is some room there. Interestingly, i recall back to the Flacco SB win and the $20 mil per that he got. At that time that was a massive boost in pay and with cap back then, just busted the Raven's cap to pieces. The loss of talented players followed because of no cap room, and Ravens were relegated to the waste bin of NFL hx. If Geo gets paid, the argument (and it is a good one) is that then TW has to get paid, then Warner, then McG, then.....and on it goes. So, that is also a big part here, and it will be really hard to overpay George but not others. So a good argument right there not to overpay. I have often wondered if Flacco knew that at the time of his $20 mil payday, would he have been happy with just a slight bump in pay.?

Probably that same thot will (hopefully) go thru Kiittle's mind also, and he will be more anxious than Flacco was to keep a winning team together and not be a salary buster. But that is hope...and the cap decr is right around the corner. As to what's going to happen, i've got no idea.

Right now tho, decr NFL revenues, return (or not) of millions more jobs, Kittle's thots on salary busting vs keeping team together, F.O valuation, unreasonable other team's demand for Kittle at grossly inflated prices...all that and more will all come into play. That is a lot of moving parts. Where it goes? IDK.

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
[...]
As for Kittle, like others, i hope his agent is blowing smoke, and if decr NFL revenues actually come to pass, then George might be lucky to get $10.5. Sentimentally, i just want to keep him, just like i wanted to keep Buck....only later did i get over the DeFo trade, and yes, it was wise. I was sure it would be Arik, but no question, the F.O got it right. I could be dead wrong here, also, but with decr revenues, it is just inconceivable that cap is not going down. The surprising drop in unemployment numbers, however, makes this a bit less certain. The covid issue makes it a tad more certain.

Whether Geo gets $12 mil or $15 mil , or who knows, even less due to cap decr, i still feel the guy is the heart of this talented group and it is key to keep him here. If cap is substantially down, then my guess is George's agent waits til 2022 to negotiate, and we just tag him and wait for NFL to return to "normal" ....whatever that is.. (Actually, we don't have to do anything as he is under contract another couple yrs)/

The wise sentiment on WZ is correct from financial standpoint, as i mentioned above we can't overpay if it results in losing 2, 3 or 4 other necessary players. Still, i believe F.O does what it has to do to keep Geo....up to a point. And no one here knows how much can be cut elsewhere to pad Kittle's offer, nor does anyone know what actually can be offered...and this will be totally dependent upon just how much NFL revenues get hit. But it HAS to be less... perhaps that makes the case for not negotiating anymore this yr, IDK.

Ultimately, we have some dead wood on payroll and those guys will probably be cut, freeing up some cap space. No need to name them, most know who that includes. So, yes there is some room there. Interestingly, i recall back to the Flacco SB win and the $20 mil per that he got. At that time that was a massive boost in pay and with cap back then, just busted the Raven's cap to pieces. The loss of talented players followed because of no cap room, and Ravens were relegated to the waste bin of NFL hx. If Geo gets paid, the argument (and it is a good one) is that then TW has to get paid, then Warner, then McG, then.....and on it goes. So, that is also a big part here, and it will be really hard to overpay George but not others. So a good argument right there not to overpay. I have often wondered if Flacco knew that at the time of his $20 mil payday, would he have been happy with just a slight bump in pay.?

Probably that same thot will (hopefully) go thru Kiittle's mind also, and he will be more anxious than Flacco was to keep a winning team together and not be a salary buster. But that is hope...and the cap decr is right around the corner. As to what's going to happen, i've got no idea.

Right now tho, decr NFL revenues, return (or not) of millions more jobs, Kittle's thots on salary busting vs keeping team together, F.O valuation, unreasonable other team's demand for Kittle at grossly inflated prices...all that and more will all come into play. That is a lot of moving parts. Where it goes? IDK.

Once your teams appear in the playoffs, you are on the negative side of talent acquisition. In other words, the Draft, Free Agency, and the Cap work in concert to *reduce* your team talents pool. Whereas on the reverse side - if your team *didn't* make the playoffs and are one of the bottom feeding teams, versus a 8-8 record team, you are on the positive side of talent acquisition. The Draft, Cap and Free agency - serve to *help* you get talent in that situation.

ShanaLynch is in the negative territory right now, and while they probably will pay Kittle what he's worth, come next year (assuming we appear in the playoffs and possibly the super bowl again). We're going to lose more talent, whether we like it or not. Patriots couldn't keep Trent Brown after they won the super bowl (for example). We might not be able to keep Trent Williams, Warner etc... and ShanaLynch will have to prioritize who they want to keep and who they can trade and who they can do another Buckner deal with next year. The George Kittle deal will be very important in the coming years once it's done - and it will be done and he'll probably be a 49er for a very long time. But his contract is going to affect a lot of other players contacts at least in the first two years of his contract where the Guaranteed payments are being eliminated via front loading.

It's a team game, but the contracts are on an individual basis -- Kittle's contract will be very important to the team from an overall cap standpoint and also from a team culture standpoint. ShanaLynch can't allow Kittle's contract to imbalance the cap and jeopardize future big cap contracts - like Trent Willions, Warner, Bosa etc...

^^^yeah, Giedi, that's always been an odd juxtaposition. And as you point out, the team culture is joint, but the salary culture is VERY personal, private, and only a very few think more of team than self. Hard to name one? Easy, Tom Brady, until he hit 42 yrs old. Then he was out for Tom, not the PATS. Still that was a very odd arrangement, with a wife reportedly making more money than he. We all should be so lucky. At the end of his career, however, he is definitely in it for the $$$ and also the "rush" of being a NFL QB.

That said, i don't expect Kittle to stay here if somebody "forces" him to take $17 mil...or $16 mil for that matter. Honestly, anybody doing a contract right now that doesn't have to be done, whether on player side or F.O side, seems ill advised. Man i would really want to know at least how bad, bad really is wiht nobody in the seats for "x" number of games...maybe first half season? First 4 games? All season? Or do we do a tweener and go the Texas Aggies Kyle field route....every other row, and every 4th seat. That comes out 1/8 the capacity or 12,000 for the Aggies. For us it would be 9000 fans in seats. Just a thot, but with seating like that, no concessions, lines marked in the cement where you stand in line to get in, and then general thermal screening with a pulse oximeter to slip on the finger of anyone with slight temp elevation....and MASKS! Is that worth it for ownership? Sure seems like a lot of expensive hoops to go thru, but i have no idea TBH.

Until the other variables are ironed out, sitting up here in the cheap seats it looks like a contract ironed out now before knowing what happens with fans in stadium and covid... makes doing any contract really uncomfortable , at least for the Payer. I sure wouldn't do it if i were the owner.

After all that is ironed out...and assuming we can get a handle on covid 19...(that's a helluva IF)...then contracts make sense. Right this moment? Nope. As for how we value George, a lot of that is how kyle himself values Geo. If he is just primarily a TE in kyle's Scheme, that's one thing...and $10.5 with a tiny bump. But we all know he is a lot more than that, but how does kyle value "More than that". Personally all those times last yr Kittle had to be kept back for blocking because our beat up OL was so peppered with rotational or relatively new guys, and JimmyG was getting creamed if kittle was on a passing route, that i really wondered why Kyle and JL hadn''t done a better job on backstopping the OL with more talent? (That sure sounds like NCommand, )

I would prefer 100% of the time kittle being in passing routes and not blocking. If it is a run play, sure. But on passing plays, i want him as a target, not blocking for the OLineman who just flat out missed his block. We saw a lot of that in the SB. Once again, injury was like a fricking albatross around our necks.

So if Kyle uses Geo maximally, we see him on more passing routes but he continues to run block. But keeping him back to block because the OL can't ...that just sucks. So...how does kyle envision what he will do with Kittle? All that goes into what he is offered. We know he can block like a mutha, but it would really be nice if he could be on a passing route instead. Hope Brunskill is even better than last yr, and hope Benton has personally worked with Laken on PP. Also, altho a great run blocker, McG needs some hands on help from Benton for PP. And I PRAY Richburg is healthy and can hold down Center. If so, then we get a huge infusion in our O with Kittle on a lot more passing routes.

Then, how does kyle see kittle? Just an A+ #1 WR altho he is a TE, or does he see him as a part time PP blocker because the OL can't cut it? If so, his value is less, altho JimmyG will sure appreciate him. We know he is one helluva run blocker. How one goes thru this and figures out how to use Kittle maximally will ultimately put a value on what he does. Kyle has to first find out what his OL can do ...and then he can figure out how he wants to use Kittle. Right now he knows neither one, and that makes it harder yet to put a value on arguably our best player. Our best player? Well, PFF sure liked him last season. And that is part of figuring his value also. We've only had a couple guys rated one of the top few best players in the game, and that was over 30+ yrs ago, Jerry and Joe. And now we got George.