The Air Raid Killer Defense: Why I think we're trying out so many safeties...

There are numerous theories WRT stockpiling S's...including my own that they could trade Tartt this year to get something tangible in return. There will be more extensions coming...Warner, X-number of DB's, WR's, DL, etc. Where SS fits in that mix is debatable. I do think it's safe to say it may not be as highly prioritized as others. We'll see. Adding players like Cyprien make total sense...as Lynch and Shanahan would be quick to point out, you can never have too many good football players. Excellent discussion...thoroughly enjoy posts like this.

Originally posted by thl408:
What combination of Big Nickel, Tite front, and 3-3-5 do you think the 49ers are adopting to help combat ARI? All three are kind of independent of one another. There are counterarguments for each regarding them being used to specifically counter what ARI does.

Good question.I thought about it for awhile and decided I'd like to see something like the 3-3-3 defense Iowa State runs out there in the Big 12 where Air Raid offenses are all the rave. It looks like this:



Several points on why:

1. "Tite" Three Man (4i-1-5) Defensive Line: Fortunately, we have the D-Line depth and versatility to put together this type of a front. I foresee an optimal formation with Armstead lined at 4iT, Jones lined at 1, and Bosa lined at 5T. The alignment is a kind of compromise with normal of Tite fronts which line up both ends inside the tackles around the 4iT by placing our best edge rusher, Bosa, outside of offensive tackle at 5T so he has a little more room to navigate around the end. Now, I know that the drawback is that we take away an extra edge rusher like Ford to rush the passer. But there are multiple ways to generate pressure without an extra lineman, especially in employing a formation like this that gives the illusion of a light front, especially at the gaping hole between the 1T and 5T which leads me to our LBs...
2. Three Linebackers (1 ILB/2 OLB): It will be our LBs who will hold it down as a second line of defense, seeing that the loss of one edge rushing D lineman allows us to play Warner at ILB and Alexander/Greenlaw at OB together at the same time. The idea, as with all Tite fronts, is to clog up the interior A and B gaps to flush the run game outside the tackles for our wide-ranging LBs and a hybrid S/LB to plug the remaining holes, as the scheme is designed to rely upon faster players up front who can buzz out into coverage, especially around the flats where plenty of Air Raid offenses exploit in spreading out defenses. Normally, I wouldn't endorse this plan for most NFL teams but we have the depth and versatility of talent at LB to execute well in pass coverage and blitz the passer. Both Warner and Alexander, in particular, are very good pass rushers in the open gaps and are not liabilities in coverage against LBs and RBs.
3. "Big Nickel": Tony Oden used to run more match quarters with 3 safety looks back in Detroit and Miami than Joe Woods usually did for us. The key to this secondary scheme will revolve around our ability to plug in various safeties for our "Middle/Joker safety" position along with Tartt and Ward depending on a particular down and situation. Having that extra safety out there gives us a lot of versatility. If we're in a situation where we're afraid of a team going 22 personnel on us we can put a Cyprien out there as a hybrid S/LB type who will punish the run and cover a TE. If teams look to exploit 11 personnel a hybrid safety/nickelback type like Moore can play the Joker role while the other stays out in deep coverage. The latter look will be especially important should K'waun Williams' injury issues linger going into week 1 vs. Arizona.

- Big Nickel is used to defend 2WR sets, which ARI does not use a lot of. But they do use 2WR sets so this change I think is the most likely of the three.

Correct me if I am wrong but we used it against KC in the SB when they went 11 personnel. But regardless, part of the reason why I want a Tite formation is the help substituting an extra LB provides in intermediate coverage. The reason Arizona gave us defensive fits last year was because of the horizontal pressure it immediately put on our 4-2-5 defenses in the flats, which then opened up the interior passing lanes especially against our wide 9 defensive line formations.

- 3-3-5 personnel removes one of the better players whether it's Kinlaw or DJJ and puts Ford in a tough position as a run defender that may have to take on double team blocks. Perhaps Ford is not in the lineup in these situations, opting for a bigger DE that can better handle run blocks.

I know this isn't a popular opinion, but Ford is the DL I remove on this alignment, rather than Kinlaw or Jones - either one of which would line up at the 1-Tech eating up blocks. It's true that we could use Ford as a hybrid OLB/DE which college defenses (think Arden Key at LSU or a Josh Allen at Kentucky), but as you note, he's not very good at it and if I recall correctly he quarrelled with his coaches in Kansas on the subject of having to move back into coverage there. Ultimately, I do believe we have the DL talent capable of pulling off a 3 man DL front with anyone of our three being able to win 1 on 1 matchups depending on who offensive lines wish to double team.

- Tite front puts two of the LBs into overhang positions which they aren't used to. Only Warner has experience doing this from his college days but he's now a MIKE and we'd want him staying at MIKE in a Tite front. So now you have Kwon and Greenlaw learning new reads and keys.

If anything it will reduce the responsibility both OLBs have in coverage by allowing all three of our LBs to play together in pass coverage with an extra safety substituted as backup.

I think the least intrusive wrinkle would be using more Big Nickel personnel, but that's very situation dependent (when ARI uses 2 WRs). The other two changes (Tite, 3-3-5) are a big shift in what's been being taught and I have reservations about altering what is the foundation in the wide9 (4 man front, 3 in the box LBs). I won't rule anything out because the offseason is the time to add layers to the playbook, just want to point out that the Tite front and 3-3-5 personnel I consider as big-ish changes to the 49ers defense.

These are valid concerns, but we have to remember that 3-3-3 front is just one of many tools in the toolbox for the Air Raid offense. And I can see why we'd invest in extra safety help to counter the Kingsbury Arizona-type offenses we'll be seeing down the road.

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by Willisfn4life:
Yes many of the air raid principals are in the NFL but the niners transitioned more split coverage last year into their scheme to counterattack those heavy spread type schemes just like your seeing in college. Nick Saban does this alot. They also used three safety looks when they went into their dime packages.

I have no doubt there will be more wrinkles into their scheme (I agree about that) but the guys their bringing in don't speak much of a philosophical change to me. They were signed last minute after camp had already started. That should be telling enough. Cyprien is a typical box safety that is trash in pass defense and has been injured the last couple of seasons. Foster is another box safety type with speed that could be a nice special teams gem. No reason to overthink the moves. Like I said before, I just see these moves as due diligence type moves. Special teams, push for depth spots against guys like Marcell Harris, season speed dial guys that will have some schematic knowledge and not have to catch up on the fly. That's all those moves tell me imo.

Agreed about not trying to read too much into the recent signings (Cyprien, Foster). If the 49ers were serious about making these types of changes, they wouldn't be signing these guys as afterthought street free agents. These signings would have happened much earlier in free agency to make sure they had the players they wanted to execute these scheme changes.

K'waun Williams wasn't injured early in camp though. I also think its conceivable they were willing to implement these changes with guys like Harris but upgraded.

Originally posted by libertyforever:
Makes no sense to not play any edge rushers when we have N. Boss and Ford.

I'd play Bosa in this alignment, not Ford. But I do want to reiterate that this is formation is just one tool in the toolbox against a very heavy Air Raid offensive team. Ultimately, what I like about the concept is that it takes advantage of our great depth at LB right now and rests our DL in a way that doesn't waste them out against no-huddle offenses like the one Kingsbury runs. They're designed to tire out bigger teams up front through a war of attrition that adds up as games drag on. A three man D-Line rotation keeps us lighter on the field against a smaller, faster paced offense.

Originally posted by RasSuar:

Originally posted by libertyforever:
Makes no sense to not play any edge rushers when we have N. Boss and Ford.

I'd play Bosa in this alignment, but not Ford. But I do want to reiterate that this is formation is just one tool in the toolbox against a very heavy Air Raid offensive team. Ultimately, what I like about the concept is that it takes advantage of our great depth at LB right now and rests our DL in a way that doesn't waste them out against no-huddle offenses like the one Kingsbury runs. They're designed to tire out bigger teams up front through a war of attrition that adds up as games drag on. A three man D-Line rotation keeps us lighter on the field against a smaller, faster paced offense.

this "tool" only works against a pocket QB that can't run

Murray is a runner and would pick up the first down with his legs every time

Originally posted by libertyforever:
Makes no sense to not play any edge rushers when we have N. Boss and Ford.

My initial thought as well.

We spend all this draft capitol on DL just to give the QB all the time in the world to shred our secondary.

I think using the same defense implemented in the superbowl would work just fine against this offense. The whole theme of this offseason was to keep a strength a strength

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
this "tool" only works against a pocket QB that can't run

Murray is a runner and would pick up the first down with his legs every time

In 2018 Iowa St. ran this offense in the Big 12 against Kyler Murray. Oklahoma was held to 11 points under its season average. That year Iowa State gave up the fewest points per game (22.9) in their entire high-powered Air Raid passing conference. They literally are the reason this 3-3-3 defense is called "Air Raid Killer"...

Originally posted by RasSuar:

Originally posted by thl408:
What combination of Big Nickel, Tite front, and 3-3-5 do you think the 49ers are adopting to help combat ARI? All three are kind of independent of one another. There are counterarguments for each regarding them being used to specifically counter what ARI does.

Good question.I thought about it for awhile and decided I'd like to see something like the 3-3-3 defense Iowa State runs out there in the Big 12 where Air Raid offenses are all the rave. It looks like this:



Several points on why:

1. "Tite" Three Man (4i-1-5) Defensive Line: Fortunately, we have the D-Line depth and versatility to put together this type of a front. I foresee an optimal formation with Armstead lined at 4iT, Jones lined at 1, and Bosa lined at 5T. The alignment is a kind of compromise with normal of Tite fronts which line up both ends inside the tackles around the 4iT by placing our best edge rusher, Bosa, outside of offensive tackle at 5T so he has a little more room to navigate around the end. Now, I know that the drawback is that we take away an extra edge rusher like Ford to rush the passer. But there are multiple ways to generate pressure without an extra lineman, especially in employing a formation like this that gives the illusion of a light front, especially at the gaping hole between the 1T and 5T which leads me to our LBs...
2. Three Linebackers (1 ILB/2 OLB): It will be our LBs who will hold it down as a second line of defense, seeing that the loss of one edge rushing D lineman allows us to play Warner at ILB and Alexander/Greenlaw at OB together at the same time. The idea, as with all Tite fronts, is to clog up the interior A and B gaps to flush the run game outside the tackles for our wide-ranging LBs and a hybrid S/LB to plug the remaining holes, as the scheme is designed to rely upon faster players up front who can buzz out into coverage, especially around the flats where plenty of Air Raid offenses exploit in spreading out defenses. Normally, I wouldn't endorse this plan for most NFL teams but we have the depth and versatility of talent at LB to execute well in pass coverage and blitz the passer. Both Warner and Alexander, in particular, are very good pass rushers in the open gaps and are not liabilities in coverage against LBs and RBs.
3. "Big Nickel": Tony Oden used to run more match quarters with 3 safety looks back in Detroit and Miami than Joe Woods usually did for us. The key to this secondary scheme will revolve around our ability to plug in various safeties for our "Middle/Joker safety" position along with Tartt and Ward depending on a particular down and situation. Having that extra safety out there gives us a lot of versatility. If we're in a situation where we're afraid of a team going 22 personnel on us we can put a Cyprien out there as a hybrid S/LB type who will punish the run and cover a TE. If teams look to exploit 11 personnel a hybrid safety/nickelback type like Moore can play the Joker role while the other stays out in deep coverage. The latter look will be especially important should K'waun Williams' injury issues linger going into week 1 vs. Arizona.

- Big Nickel is used to defend 2WR sets, which ARI does not use a lot of. But they do use 2WR sets so this change I think is the most likely of the three.

Correct me if I am wrong but we used it against KC in the SB when they went 11 personnel. But regardless, part of the reason why I want a Tite formation is the help substituting an extra LB provides in intermediate coverage. The reason Arizona gave us defensive fits last year was because of the horizontal pressure it immediately put on our 4-2-5 defenses in the flats, which then opened up the interior passing lanes especially against our wide 9 defensive line formations.

- 3-3-5 personnel removes one of the better players whether it's Kinlaw or DJJ and puts Ford in a tough position as a run defender that may have to take on double team blocks. Perhaps Ford is not in the lineup in these situations, opting for a bigger DE that can better handle run blocks.

I know this isn't a popular opinion, but Ford is the DL I remove on this alignment, rather than Kinlaw or Jones - either one of which would line up at the 1-Tech eating up blocks. It's true that we could use Ford as a hybrid OLB/DE which college defenses (think Arden Key at LSU or a Josh Allen at Kentucky), but as you note, he's not very good at it and if I recall correctly he quarrelled with his coaches in Kansas on the subject of having to move back into coverage there. Ultimately, I do believe we have the DL talent capable of pulling off a 3 man DL front with anyone of our three being able to win 1 on 1 matchups depending on who offensive lines wish to double team.

- Tite front puts two of the LBs into overhang positions which they aren't used to. Only Warner has experience doing this from his college days but he's now a MIKE and we'd want him staying at MIKE in a Tite front. So now you have Kwon and Greenlaw learning new reads and keys.

If anything it will reduce the responsibility both OLBs have in coverage by allowing all three of our LBs to play together in pass coverage with an extra safety substituted as backup.

I think the least intrusive wrinkle would be using more Big Nickel personnel, but that's very situation dependent (when ARI uses 2 WRs). The other two changes (Tite, 3-3-5) are a big shift in what's been being taught and I have reservations about altering what is the foundation in the wide9 (4 man front, 3 in the box LBs). I won't rule anything out because the offseason is the time to add layers to the playbook, just want to point out that the Tite front and 3-3-5 personnel I consider as big-ish changes to the 49ers defense.

These are valid concerns, but we have to remember that 3-3-3 front is just one of many tools in the toolbox for the Air Raid offense. And I can see why we'd invest in extra safety help to counter the Kingsbury Arizona-type offenses we'll be seeing down the road.

Good post Ras. The defenses in the Big 12 can adopt this 3-3-5 as their primary defensive scheme because they face multiple Air Raid offenses in their conference. While the 49ers could adopt these changes, it's a major shift away from what they specialize in, all for an offense they face twice a season. You addressed many of the concerns about moving to a 3-3-5 except one, the OLBs moving outside the box to become overhang defenders in a Tite front. In a Tite front, those LBs would now be force defenders, different than their current responsibilities in a wide9 where they are assigned an interior gap. You already mentioned the assignment changes to the DL.

Again, I won't rule anything out. In 2017/18 Saleh was all about being an execution defense. Meaning the 49ers did what they did and tried to master it, not changing much regardless of the opposing offense. Saleh kept it simple so his players could play fast. In 2019, he swung a tad towards being a scheme defense, meaning he adjusted his gameplan on a weekly basis depending on the opponent. With ARI being a unique offense compared to the other opponents, this had to be done when they played ARI. Now that there's two game's worth of film to dissect vs ARI, perhaps he adds some pages to the playbook that are designed to counter the Air Raid.

When TMoore played in the SB (he only played 5 snaps) it was a three safeties, three CBs, 1 LB personnel package (4 DL), used to matchup against KC's 11 personnel. That's not Big Nickel personnel. Big Nickel is defined as 3 safeties, 2 CBs.

I agree with your statement above about how ARI tried to attack with quick passes: "especially around the flats where plenty of Air Raid offenses exploit in spreading out defenses". It was clear that's how ARI wanted to pick up some easy yards against a predominantly zone defense. I'l try to show some snaps on how Saleh wanted to defend ARI. The gameplan was simply to play more split safety coverages. This is a minor gameplan adjustment compared to using three safeties and a Tite front which really deviates away from their defensive foundation.

I'm not saying that 3-3-5, Tite can't defend the Air Raid, I'm saying it's such a big schematic change from what the 49ers specialize in. If 2020 shows that what the 49ers do can't stop ARI, and ARI emerges as a contender, then perhaps I would be more open to Saleh switching things up with these types of big changes.

When Crabtree was at Texas Tech, they went to become #1 for a week or two... and I remember one of the defenses that they faced use nothing but CBs in their dime defense... they took out the FS and the SS, and inserted CBs for those position so that the D would have a better match up when Air Raid sent the Slot Receivers against the SS and the FS.

Originally posted by GangstaGangsta:

Originally posted by libertyforever:
Makes no sense to not play any edge rushers when we have N. Boss and Ford.

We spend all this draft capitol on DL just to give the QB all the time in the world to shred our secondary.

In two games versus us last season Murray had a 114.0 passer rating against our world class DL (the 2nd highest of his career with the exception of the Falcons) with a 72% completion percentage despite being sacked 7 times in those two games. He was able to scorch us for 7.77 yards per attempt, threw 4 TDs, ran for 1 and didn't throw an interception. In other words, this rookie who merely threw 20 TDs to 12 INTs with pedestrian 87.4 passer rating owned our elite defense bad. Why? Because the Kingsbury Air Raid Offense was a nightmare for our Wide 9-oriented defensive scheme, a scheme that was stretched out so horizontally that interior running lanes were gaped wide open. And now that this same offense has a new vertical dimension that can stretch us vertically with Hopkins.

Considering this, its clear to see that our secondary was already shredded running the scheme you're so attached to. So why would should we continue to try the same thing that failed twice in allowing 27 ppg from an offense that scored 22 ppg? Because Ford might not play as much? Yeah, I am willing to consider trying something a little different that's had success against Air Raid concepts in the past.

Originally posted by thl408:
Good post Ras. The defenses in the Big 12 can adopt this 3-3-5 as their primary defensive scheme because they face multiple Air Raid offenses in their conference. While the 49ers could adopt these changes, it's a major shift away from what they specialize in, all for an offense they face twice a season. You addressed many of the concerns about moving to a 3-3-5 except one, the OLBs moving outside the box to become overhang defenders in a Tite front. In a Tite front, those LBs would now be force defenders, different than their current responsibilities in a wide9 where they are assigned an interior gap. You already mentioned the assignment changes to the DL.

Again, I won't rule anything out. In 2017/18 Saleh was all about being an execution defense. Meaning the 49ers did what they did and tried to master it, not changing much regardless of the opposing offense. Saleh kept it simple so his players could play fast. In 2019, he swung a tad towards being a scheme defense, meaning he adjusted his gameplan on a weekly basis depending on the opponent. With ARI being a unique offense compared to the other opponents, this had to be done when they played ARI. Now that there's two game's worth of film to dissect vs ARI, perhaps he adds some pages to the playbook that are designed to counter the Air Raid.

When TMoore played in the SB (he only played 5 snaps) it was a three safeties, three CBs, 1 LB personnel package (4 DL), used to matchup against KC's 11 personnel. That's not Big Nickel personnel. Big Nickel is defined as 3 safeties, 2 CBs.

I agree with your statement above about how ARI tried to attack with quick passes: "especially around the flats where plenty of Air Raid offenses exploit in spreading out defenses". It was clear that's how ARI wanted to pick up some easy yards against a predominantly zone defense. I'l try to show some snaps on how Saleh wanted to defend ARI. The gameplan was simply to play more split safety coverages. This is a minor gameplan adjustment compared to using three safeties and a Tite front which really deviates away from their defensive foundation.

I'm not saying that 3-3-5, Tite can't defend the Air Raid, I'm saying it's such a big schematic change from what the 49ers specialize in. If 2020 shows that what the 49ers do can't stop ARI, and ARI emerges as a contender, then perhaps I would be more open to Saleh switching things up with these types of big changes.

Fair enough. I see your points though I am fairly convinced Greenlaw can play that overhang and we know Warner can as well.

Originally posted by RasSuar:

Originally posted by elguapo:

That's interesting but I believe it's just because this year we are allowed to keep veteran players on the practice squad. It's much better to have cheap veteran players than rookies especially because they have the experience in the NFL and college players barely got any this year. At least they don't have to waste time preparing for preseason games so that may help the rookies a little to make up for time lost

Jonathan Cyprien is a veteran. Evan Foster is not, though. Also, its not just us getting veterans but the type we're signing in the secondary. It's our slot corner position which has thinned out with injuries to K'wuan Williams and DJ Reed but we're signing box safeties. Makes little sense unless we're thinking about retooling our secondary schemes with more hybrid SS/LB types. That "middle safety" spot is exactly the type of role which those guys could conceivably fill.

I couldn't agree more and this is exactly why I had these S's making the team. Also, should we need another SCB (i.e. K'Waun Williams goes down), Verrett plays outside and either Moseley or Ward slide into that spot. We already know they wanted more T.Moore too. They're also moving Sherman around now too. I think we're about to see some new wrinkles.

FS: Jimmie Ward; Tarvarius Moore
SS: Jaquiski Tartt; Johnathan Cyprien & Marcell Harris

Big Nickle is the only defense I can stop anyone with in Madden so...there's that.

Originally posted by RasSuar:
Fair enough. I see your points though I am fairly convinced Greenlaw can play that overhang and we know Warner can as well.

Thank you for making this thread . I love talking about this stuff, trying to arm chair coach. If we see Saleh employ a 3-3-5 personnel package and/or use a Tite front, I'll be sure to bump this thread again.
One way to stop all those little bubble screens is to play man, but that wasn't the 49ers in 2019. I do agree that ARI requires a somewhat unique gameplan. Just how much will it differ from what the 49ers usually do we'll see soon in week 1.

Originally posted by thl408:
Thank you for making this thread . I love talking about this stuff, trying to arm chair coach. If we see Saleh employ a 3-3-5 personnel package and/or use a Tite front, I'll be sure to bump this thread again.
One way to stop all those little bubble screens is to play man, but that wasn't the 49ers in 2019. I do agree that ARI requires a somewhat unique gameplan. Just how much will it differ from what the 49ers usually do we'll see soon in week 1.

It was my pleasure to write it and engage with your wonderful critiques. My own feeling is that Kenyon Drake and Kyler Murray's feet, were the problem for our defense to stop in this scheme. I want that extra LB and S in the scheme to stop them.