Re-doing 2020 (e.g. a few terrible decisions that killed the 49ers)

One of the most prominent clichés in life and sports, especially, is that hindsight is 20/20. The Niners thought they were making sound decisions after coming up just short in the SuperBowl. Midway through the 2020 season however a combination of bad luck (errr historically bad luck with injuries) and bad decisions are costing this team dearly. The problem is bad decisions in personnel matters aren't one-time taxes, they impose costs on the team for many years to come and I'm afraid the 49ers front office made several cataclysmic manuevers that will be very hard to recover from.

It's not a good use of time to stew over these poor choices and replay what-might-have been scenarios, but it could all be so so different now.

Let's replay what the 49ers did in the spring of 2020. To me, it ultimately comes down to one central decision...

Faced with the choice to resign their budding Pro Bowl DT, Deforest Buckner, the team's most consistent player and leader on defense, or spread that money around to several positions, the 49ers fooled themselves.

Buckner is NOT Aaron Donald, he's not even quite in Chris Jones territory, but he is a top 5 DT with a non-stop motor, leadership skills who NEVER misses time to injury. Simply put, there are almost no players who can match his level of availability, productivity and leadership. What would it have taken for the 49ers to keep him? I suspect an extension for 4 years at $80M would've done it.

Now this decision would've invariably had downstream consequences. Almost assuredly the 49ers would have needed to let Jimmie Ward walk in FA. More likely than not, they would have had to franchise and then trade Arik Armstead.

OR, they could have just cut Dee Ford. The 49ers gambled on Ford and when he played the 49ers pass rush was historic. Yes, they sacrificed a late 2nd round pick but that was a sunk cost. Keeping a DE on the downside of his career who hasn't had played more than two entire seasons ever on the roster at $18M per year made NO SENSE. And yet, to save face, the 49ers gambled. They believed that a healthy* Ford + Bosa + Armstead would be enough. Maybe they could've been right, but by what we're seeing now they were woefully wrong.

Now the 49ers are saddled with 3 terrible contracts. Jimmie Ward is a middling FS at best. Dee Ford may likely never see the field again. Armstead I still believe is a talented player, but he better be your 2nd or 3rd best DL, not your go-to guy (which he is right now).

The 49ers combined cap hit for these three players will be $44.2M in 2021, representing more than a QUARTER of the projected cap. It gets worse, in 2022, these cap numbers climb to $53.2M.

The 49ers paid these players like stars. They are not stars. They are all flawed players who, when everything lines up just so, can play at close to an elite level. The real star, however, was DeForest Buckner and the 49ers thought they could save $2-3M per year by signing Armstead and using those incremental dollars to keep Jimmie Ward. BRUTAL.

Now what could / should have they done?

At very least, they should have NEVER restructured Dee Ford's deal to convert his 2021 base salary into a bonus. That way they could've at least gotten out of his contract after this year w/ no financial ramifications. Whoops...

What they really should have done was trade Dee Ford after the season for a 5th or 6th round pick and move on from his salary.

Then, they should have then signed Buckner to a 4 year $80M extension, letting him play this year on his 5th year option.

The savings from trading Ford should, hypothetically, allowed the 49ers to keep Armstead OR Jimmie Ward in 2020, if not both.

So, the 49ers could have have Franchised Arik Armstead and then tried to sign him to a longer term deal OR traded him for a 2nd Round Pick in the draft.

IF, the 49ers traded Armstead, they could have resigned Jimmie Ward walk but the right move would have been to let him walk in FA and received a 3rd or 4th round compensatory pick in this year's draft.

If Ward was let go and Armstead was traded, the 49ers could have moved up in the 2nd Round to S Antoine Winfield Jr. to become the starting FS for this team.

Had they done this, the 49ers defensive nucleus going into 2021 would be Buckner, Bosa, Warner and Winfield. That's ELITE talent at every level.

They would also have MUCH more financial flexibility to resign Trent Williams AND Fred Warner.

Instead, this team is less talented and much more financially strapped.

These were EGREGIOUS decisions that at least put John Lynch's job into question. Instead he got rewarded with a five year extension...

Those are nice and all, but there would have never been a guarantee they could have afforded Trent Williams's $12.5M salary.

Also moving up in the 2nd round likely would have meant no Aiyuk in the 1st either.

Actually, there was ONE big decision that went the wrong way. TOM BRADY wanted to play for the Niners who could have sent JimmyG back home. That changed the entire season...

Originally posted by frenchtoast:
Actually, there was ONE big decision that went the wrong way. TOM BRADY wanted to play for the Niners who could have sent JimmyG back home. That changed the entire season...

I don't think it was ever really an option, wasn't it reported he wanted to stay on the east coast to be near his son.

Also on guys like AA and Ward, their cap numbers are so low, while Buckner's would have been crazy high, making it hard to sign anyone, or trade for someone like Trent.

Thought this post was going to be all hindsight. But paying Armstead and Ward over Buck was obviously stupid, even when it happened.

Originally posted by AB81Rules:
Those are nice and all, but there would have never been a guarantee they could have afforded Trent Williams's $12.5M salary.

Also moving up in the 2nd round likely would have meant no Aiyuk in the 1st either.

I would say draft Aiyuk and let Moore start instead of trading up for Winfield.

Yes, the bottom line is the 49ers made the choice to role with Armstead, Ward and Ford instead of Buckner.

If the 49ers allowed Ward to walk they could've afforded Trent Williams EVEN IF we re-signed Armstead on the exact same deal. The decision to ultimately keep Ward for $9.5M a year completely hamstrung the 49ers and they will be paying a huge toll for that in the coming years.

This says nothing about them committing long term to Dee Ford too, which now looks like a terrible decision.

Spreading money around from one great player to three very good players is one thing, but the 49ers badly miscalculated on Ford's health and Ward's effectiveness. They now have $31M committed just to these two players next year and another $35M in 2022. They can cut Ford this offseason and save $6M but they'd incur $14M of dead cap. They can't cut Ward until after 2021.

Long story short is the 49ers thought they were being economical, but they ended up with LESS talent and MORE money spent.

Hindsight is 20/20. Glad you agreed. Rest of the post wasn't needed.

Originally posted by mike86:
Yes, the bottom line is the 49ers made the choice to role with Armstead, Ward and Ford instead of Buckner.

If the 49ers allowed Ward to walk they could've afforded Trent Williams EVEN IF we re-signed Armstead on the exact same deal. The decision to ultimately keep Ward for $9.5M a year completely hamstrung the 49ers and they will be paying a huge toll for that in the coming years.

This says nothing about them committing long term to Dee Ford too, which now looks like a terrible decision.

Spreading money around from one great player to three very good players is one thing, but the 49ers badly miscalculated on Ford's health and Ward's effectiveness. They now have $31M committed just to these two players next year and another $35M in 2022. They can cut Ford this offseason and save $6M but they'd incur $14M of dead cap. They can't cut Ward until after 2021.

Long story short is the 49ers thought they were being economical, but they ended up with LESS talent and MORE money spent.

They can cut Ward, they'd save about $1.47M if they cut him in 2021, they can save an extra $3.5M if they are able to trade him, the Ward deal looks bad right now. I'm ok with Dee, cause he was healthy in the offseason, honestly the neck/back thing is a b***h to have, my Mom has went through it for years, can happen at any time. As for AA, I thought the deal was a bit much, but he's been very good, sacks aren't everything, he's getting pressure on the QB and backs, just bad luck with no sacks, hurts not having Ford and Bosa out there, yes no DeFo hurts, but when Kinlaw develops more, he'll be a beast IMO. Long term, we couldn't afford Buckner at what he wanted/got, plus try and pay guys like Warner, Trent, Deebo, Dre, Aiyuk, and others down the road. I don't blame John for making the tough call, plus DeFo never looked like he would take a team friendly deal, AA did, they can get out of it after 2021. There was no way they would have gotten DeFo to take a small cap number, when you figure the later years would have been gigantic compared to AA's numbers.

As for Trent, I doubt they'd have cut Ford, it would have made no sense with him being healthy at the time, would you really had rather have Bosa, DeFo, and whoever/AA over Ford-Bosa-Kinlaw-AA? I'll take the 2nd any day, I loved Buck, but he turned down a lot of money from us in 2019, we tried to extend him, his agent told us he wouldn't take less than $20M a yr, then he says he wishes they met him half way? Like WTF? Why have your agent say no less than $20M, when you should know the 49ers won't pay that when he refused to take a team friendly deal, then say i wish they met me half way, like what's half way in his mind? GTD money? What $17M or $18M a yr?

Lynch deserved the EOTY award, and 5yr extension, he's done a great job of building the team, lots of young guys, talent all over the field, not his fault we've been hit with so many injuries, no one can prepare for that, no one expected Bosa to tear his ACL, and as I always say our bodies were never meant for this punishment, so I don't get angry with either the team or the players when an injury happens, it sucks, but it's a part of the game, it happens to every team. Some get luckier than others.

naw, he probably would have died of some freak injury or some subtropical virus if he came to the 49ers this year.

Originally posted by frenchtoast:
Actually, there was ONE big decision that went the wrong way. TOM BRADY wanted to play for the Niners who could have sent JimmyG back home. That changed the entire season...

Originally posted by 9erReign:
Thought this post was going to be all hindsight. But paying Armstead and Ward over Buck was obviously stupid, even when it happened.

Yea.....

Originally posted by scottym:
naw, he probably would have died of some freak injury or some subtropical virus if he came to the 49ers this year.

Originally posted by frenchtoast:
Actually, there was ONE big decision that went the wrong way. TOM BRADY wanted to play for the Niners who could have sent JimmyG back home. That changed the entire season...

Another thing on Brady is the fact that Gronk ended up in TB too, we wouldn't have had the room to take on his cap number, and as I said, Tom wanted to be close to his son who lives in NY.

Injuries killed the Niners season. So it didn't matter what moves the Niners made in the offseason.

Sorry but the premise of this thread is a fallacy. The only thing that killed the Niners this season is injuries. If Jimmy plus half of the guys that are out were healthy, we'd still be in the playoff hunt.

Tom Brady's #1 choice was the 49ers.