My latest roster projection,
https://49erscap.com/index.php/2021/05/24/2021-49ers-projected-53-man-roster-plus-practice-squad-injured-lists-plus-cap-implications-2-0/
2021 49ers Roster:
QB(3): 10 Jimmy Garoppolo(2022)/ 5 Trey Lance(2024)/ 7 Nate Sudfeld(2021)
RB(4): 31 Raheem Mostert(2021)/ 30 Jeff Wilson Jr.(2021)/ 28 Trey Sermon(2024)/ 49 Elijah Mitchell(2024)
FB(1): 44 Kyle Juszyzck(2025)
WR(6): 11 Brandon Aiyuk(2023)/ 19 Deebo Samuel(2022)/ 81 Trent Sherfield(2021)/ 13 Richie James Jr.(2021)/ 14 Jalen Hurd(2022)/ 7 Austin Watkins Jr.(2023)
TE(3): 85 George Kittle(2025)/ 82 Ross Dwelley(2021)/ 89 Charlie Woerner(2023)
C(2): 50 Alex Mack(2023)/ 60 Daniel Brunskill(2021)
OG(3): 75 Laken Tomlinson(2021)/ 65 Aaron Banks(2024)/ 68 Colton McKivitz(2023)
OT(4): 71 Trent Williams(2026)/ 69 Mike McGlinchey(2022)/ 76 Jaylon Moore(2024)/ 67 Justin Skule(2022)
DE(5): 97 Nick Bosa(2022)/ 91 Arik Armstead(2024)/ 56 Samson Ebukam(2022)/ 98 Arden Key(2021)/ 94 Jordan Willis(2021)/ 55 Dee Ford(2022)*PUP or Short Term IR*
DT(2): 99 Javon Kinlaw(2023)/ 96 Maurice Hurst Jr.(2021)/ 90 Kevin Givens(2021)*SUSPENDED*
NT(2): 93 D.J. Jones(2021)/ 92 Zach Kerr(2021)
LB(4): 54 Fred Warner(2021)/ 57 Dre Greenlaw(2022)/ 51 Azeez Al-Shaair(2021)/ 58 Justin Hilliard(2023)
CB(6): 2 Jason Verrett(2021)/ 4 Emmanuel Moseley(2022)/ 24 K'Waun Williams(2021)/ 41 Ambry Thomas(2024)/ 38 Deommodore Lenoir(2024)/ 27 Dontae Johnson(2021)
FS(2): 20 Jimmie Ward(2022)/ 33 Tarvarius Moore(2021)
SS(3): 26 Jaquiski Tartt(2021)/ 36 Marcell Harris(2021)/ 29 Talanoa Hufanga(2024)
PK(1): 9 Robbie Gould(2022)
P(1): 6 Mitch Wishnowsky(2022)
LS(1): 46 Taybor Pepper(2022)
Practice Squad:
RB 22 Wayne Gallman Jr.*
RB 23 JaMycal Hasty
FB 40 Josh Hokit
WR 15 Jauan Jennings
TE 83 Josh Pederson
C 64 Jake Brendel*
RG 61 Dakoda Shepley
LT 78 Shon Coleman*
OT 77 Alfredo Guiterrez**
DE 64 Alex Barrett
NT 65 Darrion Daniels
SLB 59 Elijah Sullivan
MLB 47 Nathan Gerry*
WLB 45 Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles
CB 35 Tim Harris Jr.
FS 7 Jared Mayden
FS 32 Tavon Wilson*
*- Denotes 1 of allowed 6 players on the practice squad with 3 or more accrued years.
**- Denotes a player who should be exempt from the total of 16 players on the practice squad due to the international pathway program.
This roster, 53-man roster, 17 practice squad players, 1 player on IR or PUP, and 1 Suspended player, would account for $174,255,338, with $14,583,911 in dead money, which would leave the team with just $7,306,773 in cap room for 2021.
Now the 49ers will need to extend All Pro MLB Fred Warner to a new deal, which should take away at least $3 million in 2021 salary cap room, which would leave the team with just $4,306,773 in cap room.
The players on my 53 who have their jobs secured IMO are below.
QB Garopoolo, QB Lance, RB Mostert, RB Wilson, RB Sermon, RB Mitchell, FB Juszcyzk, WR Aiyuk, WR Samuel, WR Hurd, WR Sherfield, WR James, TE Kittle, TE Dwelley, TE Woerner, C Mack, C Brunskill, LG Tomlinson, LG McKivitz, RG Banks, LT Williams, LT Moore, RT McGlinchey, DE Bosa, DE Armstead, DE Ebukam, DE Key, DT Kinlaw, DT Hurst, NT Jones, NT Kerr, MLB Warner, WLB Greenlaw, CB Verrett, CB Moseley, CB Williams, CB Thomas, CB Lenior, FS Ward, FS Moore, SS Tartt, SS Harris, SS Hufanga, PK Gould, P Wishnowsky, & LS Pepper.
Which leaves the following the most vulnerable IMO.
QB Sudfeld, WR Watkins, RT Skule, DE Willis, SLB Al-Shaair, SLB Hilliard, & CB Johnson.
The 49ers can create additional cap room with the following 4 players.
Jimmy Garoppolo, this is the least likely in my opinion, as it would indeed create a maximum of $18.42 million, while Garoppolo's cap savings in 2022 would go from $25.6 million to $7.18 million.
Laken Tomlinson, the 49ers already are on the hook for $1,005,530 in dead money for 2022, so if the 49ers were to restructure his contract they would gain $2.808 million in cap room, but his 2022 dead money would go up $2.808 million to $3,813,530.
Arik Armstead, the 49ers would gain $4.528 million in salary cap room, while adding $1.132 million to his 2022-2025 salary cap numbers, but note that his 2025 contract year is voidable, so his 2025 dead money would go from $1.5 million to $2.632 million.
Jimmie Ward, the last of the 4 players, the 49ers would gain $5.86 million in salary cap room, while adding $1.465 million to Ward's 2022 cap number, but it would make his cap savings for 2022 go from $7.5 million down to just $1.64 million.
Of these 4, the only one(s) that make sense are Armstead, and then Tomlinson, which would add between $4.528 million to $7.336 million in salary cap room, which would give the team $14,642,773, minus at least $3 million for Warner's extension, which would leave the team with $11,642,773 in cap room for in season moves, or to potentially sign a veteran CB like Richard Sherman, or a veteran EDGE like Justin Houston or Melvin Ingram.
Now looking towards 2022, with this roster, the 49ers would have 33 players signed, but add in Warner on a manageable $5.5M cap number for 2022, giving them 34 players signed, that would technically put them $13,431,156 over the 2022 $203M projected cap, now it's obvious that Jimmy won't be back on his $27M cap number in 2022, not with Trey Lance on a very cheaper rookie contract, and viewed as the future franchise QB.
So by cutting or trading Garoppolo before the 2022 league year begins in March 2020, they'd save $24.895M after factoring in the top 51 rule where someone making $705K replaces him on the top 51, so that would put the 49ers at $11,463,484 under the 2022 salary cap, I should also mention I escalated Deebo Samuel, Dre Greenlaw, & Mitch Wishnowsky's base salaries for their play time, due to the PPE.
The 49ers would have the following free agents based on my 53 man roster, plus Dee Ford, who I have on Short Terms IR, & Kevin Givens who I do have being suspended for the first 4 games.
QB Nate Sudfeld – UFA
RB Raheem Mostert – UFA
RB Jeff Wilson Jr. – UFA
WR Trent Sherfield – UFA
WR Richie James Jr. – UFA
TE Ross Dwelley – UFA
C Daniel Brunskill – RFA
LG Laken Tomlinson – UFA
DE Arden Key – UFA
DE Jordan Willis – UFA
DT Maurice Hurst Jr. – UFA
DT Kevin Givens – ERFA
NT D.J. Jones – UFA
NT Zach Kerr – UFA
SLB Azeez Al-Shaair – RFA
CB Jason Verrett – UFA
CB K'Waun Williams – UFA
CB Dontae Johnson – UFA
FS Tarvarius Moore – UFA
SS Jaquiski Tartt – UFA
SS Marcell Harris – UFA
Now that's a total of 21 FAs, with 18 UFAs, 2 RFAs, and 1 ERFA.
I imagine the 49ers would re-sign Brunskill & Al-Shaair to cheap 1yr deals worth less than the $2.348M projected tender, as they did with Dwelley & Harris this year.
I also imagine, if all goes well, Givens will be tendered at the 3rd-yr minimum of $895K.
Now for the 18 UFAs, if things go well, the 49ers will likely want to keep most of these guys, let's look at each of those 18 UFAs below..
QB Nate Sudfeld
If Sudfeld looks good, and does earn the 3rd QB job, they could bring him back, or try to sign a better vet QB to be the #2 QB in 2022.
RB Raheem Mostert
RB Jeff Wilson Jr.
I imagine they'll want to bring back 1 or both of these 2.
WR Trent Sherfield
WR Richie James Jr.
These two depend on how well they play, both should be relatively cheap to bring back.
TE Ross Dwelley
Dwelley is an underrated #2 TE, I can see the 49ers trying to lock him up to a cheap 3yr deal.
LG Laken Tomlinson
I just don't see the team bringing back Tomlinson, as they'll likely have some combination of Banks, McKivitz, and Moore as the teams LG-RG tandem.
DE Arden Key
DE Jordan Willis
Key is the most likely to be brought back, and if by some chance Dee Ford is ready for 2021 or we bring in a vet, then Willis will be the odd man out, I don't see the team bringing him back unless on veteran minimum deal.
DT Maurice Hurst Jr.
I see the 49ers bringing back Hurst as long as he looks good.
NT D.J. Jones
NT Zach Kerr
I think Jones will be one of the team top priorities to get extended, something in the 3-4 yr deal, this depends on him staying healthy. As for Kerr, I'd love to see him back if he plays well, he's a guy who can play Big End, 3T, and NT.
CB Jason Verrett
CB K'Waun Williams
CB Dontae Johnson
I think Verrett will be a big priority as long as he plays well and stays healthy, they'll likely want to get a multi year deal done. Williams could be brought back, but if they like Lenior to take over in year 2, then they may let K'Waun walk, even though I'd love to see him back on a 3yr deal. I just don't see Johnson back, I don't know what the 49ers see in him, yes he's a good backup Slot CB, and Outside CB, but I wouldn't want him starting, that's why adding a vet would be great.
FS Tarvarius Moore
SS Jaquiski Tartt
SS Marcell Harris
My ideal Safety duo in 2022 is Moore at FS & 2021 5th-Round pick Talanoa Hufanga at SS, which would mean the team let's Tartt walk, re-signs Moore, I'll get into Ward in a moment, and Harris is a 50/50.
So the 49ers would have around $11.463 million in cap room, now if they decide not to redo anyone, their cap room would go up to around $15.403 million, I do believe that would be enough to bring back most of the players the 49ers will want back, so Mostert and/or Wilson, Sherfield, James, Dwelley, Brunskill, Key, Hurst, Givens, Jones, Kerr, Al-Shaair, Verrett, K'Waun, Moore & Harris.
Now the 49ers could create more cap room by releasing Ward, and redoing Armstead & Kittle's deals.
Cutting Ward would save the team $6.795M, they'd save $8.388M by redoing Kittle, and $10.492M by redoing Armstead.
These would add up to $25.675 million to either $11,463,484(if the 49ers redid AA & Tomlinson in 2021) or $15,403,484(If the 49ers don't redo AA & Tomlinson in 2021), which would give the team between $11,463,484-$37,138,484 if the 49ers do redo AA & Tomlinson, or between $15,403,484-$41,078,484 with AA & Tomlinson not redone in 2021.
If the 49ers chose not to redo Armstead, Tomlinson or anyone in 2021, then it's highly unlikely the 49ers will add a veteran CB or EDGE rusher.
Also on the Julio Jones topic, I did an article not that far back, which you can find here, where I discuss why it's not financially feasible both now or in the long term, and I still stand by that, but if the Falcons were to eat some of Jones's 2021 & maybe 2022 salary, and/or Jones is willing to take less in both 2021 & 2022, in exchange for a new deal, then it may work, but my conditions would be that it wouldn't cost so much in draft capitol to get him, and it won't screw up the salary cap long term, when we have guys like Greenlaw, Samuel, Bosa, Aiyuk, Kinlaw, and guys from the 2021 class needing to be extended.
. That's a lot of work you put in there. Thanks. Nice post!