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Blake_Fever
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Barring injuries or post June 1 releases/trades, there doesn't seem to be a ton of intrigue. I think both Rookie RBs make it to guarantee having at least 2 under contract for the next couple years. Same for the rookie CBs. And Rosen makes it because Sudfeld is trash and Josh Johnson can easily be stashed on the practice squard.
QB (3): Jimmy, Trey, Rosen
RB (5): Mostert, Wilson, Sermon, Mitchell, Juice
TE (3): Kittle, Dwelly, Woerner
WR (6): Aiyuk, Deebo, James, Hurd, Sherfield, (Benjamin/Cracraft/Austin Watkins)
OL (9): Williams, Tomlinson, Mack, Banks, McGlinchey, Coleman, Brunskill, McKivitz, Moore
DL (9): Bosa, Armstead, Jones, Kinlaw, Ebukam, Willis, Key, Kerr, (Hurst/Givens/Hall)
LB (5): Warner, Greenlaw, Al-Shaair, Gerry, (Griffith/Hilliard)
CB (6): Verrett, Moseley, Williams, Thomas, Lenoir, Johnson
S (4): Ward, Tartt, Moore, Hufanga
LS (1): Pepper
K (1): Gould
P (1): Mitch
Josh Johnson or Sudfeld will be on the practice squad and Dee Ford will start off on PUP.
PS should be (if 14 spots):
1 QB
2 RB
2 WR
1 TE
3 DL
1 LB
2 CB
2 S
[ Edited by Blake_Fever on May 2, 2021 at 9:57 AM ]
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AB81Rules
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Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by Crown:
NC - no Jeff Wilson?
Nope. Keep in mind a ton of the cuts will go to the PS like Jeff Wilson, Kevin White, Arden Key, etc.
I wouldn't mind bringing in a veteran C, TE2, LB and CB.
Just an FYI Wilson signed a fully GTD 1yr $2.05M deal, so the team would lose $2.05M in cap room, I doubt that happens, you don't give him $2.05M fully GTD to just cut him, plus he played really well in 2020. I'm more inclined to keep all 5 backs, as I don't see Kyle wanting to let any of them go, Mostert is likely gone after 2021, Wilson is most likely to re-sign, Gallman would be an easy re-sign, while Sermon & Mitchell would be signed thru 2024.
I know the 49ers & Dee are optimistic about him being ready week 1, but I think he ends up making the 53, then on Sunday(next day) he gets placed on IR so he only missed 3 weeks instead of 6 on PUP. And I'd keep Arden Key, he got more than a minimum deal.
Originally posted by NCommand:
Keep in mind the COVID rules. Most teams kept extra OL on the PS as 10 OL needed to be active each game, many were called up each week from the PS, etc. I'm not sure how it'll work now.
2020 49ers Roster: Counts
QB: 3
RB/FB: 5
WR: 6
TE: 4
OL: 8 (26)
DL: 9
LB: 6
CB: 5
S: 4 (24)
ST: 3 (3)
-----------------------
Offensive Personnel: --- 26
QB: Jimmy Garoppolo; Trey Lance & Josh Rosen
RB: Raheem Mostert; Trey Sermon, Wayne Gallman & Elijah Mitchell
FB: Kyle Juszczyk
TE: George Kittle; Charlie Woerner & Ross Dwelley
XWR: Brandon Aiyuk; Travis Benjamin
SWR: Trent Sherfield; Mohamed Sanu
ZWR/F: Deebo Samuel; Jalen Hurd
LT: Trent Williams; Shon Coleman
LG: Laken Tomlinson; Colton McKivitz
C: Alex Mack; Daniel Brunskill
RG: Aaron Banks
RT: Mike McGlinchey; Jaylon Moore
Defensive Personnel: --- 24
LDE/W9: Arik Armstead; Samson Ebukam & Dee Ford
2i: D.J. Jones; Zach Kerr
3T: Javon Kinlaw; Maurice Hurst Jr.
RDE/W9: Nick Bosa; Jordan Willis
SAM: Azeez Al-Shaair; Marcell Harris (Justin Hilliard)
MIKE: Fred Warner; Elijah Sullivan
WILL: Dre Greenlaw; Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles
RCB: Emmanuel Moseley; Ambrey Thomas
SCB: K'Waun Williams; Deommodore Lenoir
LCB: Jason Verrett
FS: Jimmie Ward; Tarvarius Moore
SS: Jaquiski Tartt; Talanoa Hufanga
Special Teams: --- 3
LS: Taybor Pepper
PK: Robbie Gould
P: Mitch Wishnowsky
KOR: Ambrey Thomas & Travis Benjamin
PR: Ambrey Thomas
GR: Azeez Al-Shaair & Tarvarius Moore
With your roster NC, I think I'd drop Coleman, keep Mitchell, cause as I said above, I think Kyle pounds the table to keep all 5 backs.
I still think Gerry has a shot as backup MLB, even though that scares the f**k out of me, so I hope someone like Hilliard or Sullivan can push him, or make Gerry play better, I know he's a great ST guy.
Why no James? I'd think he'd make it over Benjamin or Sanu, Benjamin counts $1.075M, way too much IMO for a 5th WR/Returner. Sanu only costs $915K if he makes the roster. I wouldn't rule out Austin Watkins Jr.
I also think Givens's spot is in jeopardy, not because of his play, cause he's a good backup 3T, but his legal issues, if convicted, he's gone.
I admit at first I didn't see Harris, until I realized you have him at the SLB, since he can play both SS & SLB, the versatility that the 49ers love. Ward can play FS, SS and CB, Moore the same. Of course the 5 LBs you have making it(true LBs) all are versatile too, can play either 2 or all 3 spots.
Same on the OL, I'd have Jaylen Moore as the Swing T/G, Brunskill as backup C, like I said I'd drop Coleman, you only need 8 active each week to have 48 active, I think they'll sign some to the PS, at least a C, G, & T.
I kind of want to wait to see who gets cut to make room for our 4 UDFAs, but I also want to do another projection, with PS players.
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NCommand
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Originally posted by AB81Rules:
Just an FYI Wilson signed a fully GTD 1yr $2.05M deal, so the team would lose $2.05M in cap room, I doubt that happens, you don't give him $2.05M fully GTD to just cut him, plus he played really well in 2020. I'm more inclined to keep all 5 backs, as I don't see Kyle wanting to let any of them go, Mostert is likely gone after 2021, Wilson is most likely to re-sign, Gallman would be an easy re-sign, while Sermon & Mitchell would be signed thru 2024.
I know the 49ers & Dee are optimistic about him being ready week 1, but I think he ends up making the 53, then on Sunday(next day) he gets placed on IR so he only missed 3 weeks instead of 6 on PUP. And I'd keep Arden Key, he got more than a minimum deal.
With your roster NC, I think I'd drop Coleman, keep Mitchell, cause as I said above, I think Kyle pounds the table to keep all 5 backs.
I still think Gerry has a shot as backup MLB, even though that scares the f**k out of me, so I hope someone like Hilliard or Sullivan can push him, or make Gerry play better, I know he's a great ST guy.
Why no James? I'd think he'd make it over Benjamin or Sanu, Benjamin counts $1.075M, way too much IMO for a 5th WR/Returner. Sanu only costs $915K if he makes the roster. I wouldn't rule out Austin Watkins Jr.
I also think Givens's spot is in jeopardy, not because of his play, cause he's a good backup 3T, but his legal issues, if convicted, he's gone.
I admit at first I didn't see Harris, until I realized you have him at the SLB, since he can play both SS & SLB, the versatility that the 49ers love. Ward can play FS, SS and CB, Moore the same. Of course the 5 LBs you have making it(true LBs) all are versatile too, can play either 2 or all 3 spots.
Same on the OL, I'd have Jaylen Moore as the Swing T/G, Brunskill as backup C, like I said I'd drop Coleman, you only need 8 active each week to have 48 active, I think they'll sign some to the PS, at least a C, G, & T.
I kind of want to wait to see who gets cut to make room for our 4 UDFAs, but I also want to do another projection, with PS players.
5 Arby's?
It's so important you bring the cap perspective. It's huge in these decisions.
Remember though, like Kyle said, he didn't expect to draft 2 Arby's but he did. Our current Arby's are all on their last deals. The rookies we have for 4 years super cheap. I could be swayed with Wilson over Gallman but Gallman might be the better overall back. With the COVID rules, it should be easy to stash a dude like Wilson who doesn't have a fully balanced skill set...hell, we had a ton of veterans on the PS and none got touched. I do like Wilson though so this group should be fun to watch!
Good point about Dee too. I could see that swap with Arden. Then again, we were the only ones interested in him so if Dee looks good, Arden would be a nice veteran PS player.
Coleman is one of my last players so I could buy that but Lynch seemed pretty impressed with him and he is talented and would free up Brunskill and McKivitz to focus on C and G, respectively, instead of two positions again.
Yeah I'm not dug in on the backup LB spot...that could go a lot of different directions including bringing in another veteran.
I could easily buy Watkins > Sanu. I just have Sanu now because he's a trusted agent and Watkins has to earn it as an UDFA. Richie James is done. Actions speak louder than words and Kyle just isn't interested in him as a player. Travis brings the Goodwin deep speed at X that Kyle covets, is a veteran in the room and also is a returner. He's extra motivated to be back after the opt out.
Agreed, with Kerr and Hurst added, and possibly AA inside far more, Givens is probably gone. I didn't even add him.
As always, sounds like we agree on 90+% again to start. You've got the added advantage of capology and mine, scheme fits and structure. Like you noted, we're going to probably see a more aggressive, blitz hybrid player man coverage defense.
[ Edited by NCommand on May 2, 2021 at 1:15 PM ]
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AB81Rules
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53-Man Roster, with Injured, & Practice Squad players.
QB(3): Jimmy Garoppolo(2022)/ Trey Lance(2024)/ Nate Sudfeld(2021)
RB(5): Raheem Mostert(2021)/ Jeff Wilson(2021)/ Trey Sermon(2024)/ Wayne Gallman Jr.(2021)/ Elijah Mitchell(2024)
FB(1): Kyle Juszyzck
WR(6): Brandon Aiyuk(2023)/ Deebo Samuel(2022)/ Trent Sherfield(2021)/ Jalen Hurd(2022)/ Richie James Jr.(2021)/ Mohamed Sanu Sr.(2021)
TE(3): George Kittle(2025)/ Ross Dwelley(2021)/ Charlie Woerner(2023)
C(2): Alex Mack(2023)/ Daniel Brunskill(2021)
OG(3): Laken Tomlinson(2021)/ Aaron Banks(2024)/ Colton McKivitz(2023)
OT(3): Trent Williams(2026)/ Mike McGlinchey(2022)/ Jaylon Moore(2024)
DE(5): Arik Armstead(2024)/ Nick Bosa(2022)/ Samson Ebukam(2022)/ Arden Key(2021)/ Jordan Willis(2021)
DT(2): Javon Kinlaw(2023)/ Maurice Hurst Jr.(2021)
NT(2): D.J. Jones(2021)/ Zach Kerr(2021)
LB(5): Fred Warner(2021)/ Dre Greenlaw(2022)/ Azeez Al-Shaair(2021)/ Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles(2021)/ Nathan Gerry(2021)
CB(5): Jason Verrett(2021)/ Emmanuel Moseley(2022)/ K'Waun Williams(2021)/ Ambry Thomas(2024)/ Deommodore Lenoir(2024)
S(5): Jimmie Ward(2022)/ Jaquiski Tartt(2021)/ Tarvarius Moore(2021)/ Marcell Harris(2021)/ Talanoa Hufanga(2024)
ST(3): Robbie Gould(2022)/ Mitch Wishnowsky(2022)/ Taybor Pepper(2022)
Short Term IR: DE Dee Ford(2022)
Practice Squad(16 total)
1. QB Josh Rosen
2. RB JaMycal Hasty
3. FB Josh Hokit
4. WR Jauan Jennings
5. WR Austin Watkins Jr.
6. TE Josh Pederson
7. OG Dakoda Shepley
8. OT Justin Skule
9. DE Alex Barrett
10. NT Darrion Daniels
11. LB Elijah Sullivan
12. LB Justin Dilliard
13. CB Tim Harris Jr.
14. CB Dontae Johnson
15. FS Jared Mayden
16. FS/SS Tavon Wilson
With this roster, the 49ers would have $8,101,218 in cap room, less when Fred Warner signs an extension, likely $3M less, so $5,101,218 to start 2021, and if Rosen ends up being the #3 QB, the cap room would go down by $252K, with Sudfeld on the PS making that amount, and the 49ers would get a $252K credit in 2022.
They do have options for gaining more cap room, via restructures, they can save $4.528M by restructuring Armstead's deal, they can save up to $5.86M by restructuring Ward's deal, but that would virtually guarantee Ward is a 49ers in 2022.
Lastly they could either extend or restructure Laken Tomlinson's contract, they'd save up to $2.808M, if they just restructured his contract, they'd have a higher dead money for him in 2022 than his already $1,005,530, if the redo was for 4 more voidable years, they'd be left with a total of $2.808M more, something the 49ers simply shouldn't think about doing.
More on Ward, if they redid his deal, that would add on up to $5.86M to Ward's dead money in 2023, which is $2M, as his deal has a voidable year in it. They would actually save money in 2022 if they did cut Ward, it would either be $7.5M Pre June 1 or just $1.64M if they redid his deal.
As for Armstead, they would either save $3.5M in 2022 with a Pre June 1 cut, or they'd lose $1.028M if they redid his deal this year. Now I don't actually see the 49ers releasing Armstead, so this would be the most sensible one to me.
And yes we can't forget Jimmy Garoppolo, but there is no way he'll take a pay cut, nor should the 49ers redo his deal, if they did, they'd save max $18.42M, but in 2022 they would save $25.6M by cutting or trading him, or it would end up being just $8.58M, so I don't see that happening.
For now, I have Kevin Givens not making the team, I can actually see him being suspended if he's not sentenced to any jail time, but is found guilty.
I believe the key camp battles will be the following.
#6 WR: Mohamed Sanu Sr., Jauan Jennings, Travis Benjamin, & Austin Watkins Jr.
Starting RG: Aaron Banks, Daniel Brunskill, & Colton McKivitz
Swing T: Jaylon Moore, Shon Coleman, & Justin Skule
Backup LBs: Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles, Nathan Gerry, Justin Dilliard, & Elijah Sullivan
The 49ers may actually go with the cheaper options, they could have Watkins on the 53, with Sanu on the PS, same as Gerry to PS, with Dilliard or Sullivan making the 53, also the fact that Watkins & Sullivan/Dilliard would be signed for 3yrs(2021-2023).
I kept all 5 backs, as I see Kyle not wanting to get rid of any of them, and he has final say on the 53, in this roster, Mitchell replaces Givens, due to the uncertainty of Givens's legal issues.
Plus with Mostert, Wilson, & Gallman all UFAs after 2021, Sermon & Mitchell are signed for 4yrs(2021-2024), so it'd be smart to keep both RB draft picks since they're on cheap rookie deals, where Mostert will likely want a bigger deal than he got, where he makes $2.9M a yr on average, so I see Wilson being the guy who is re-signed to a multi year deal(2-3 year deal).
Also thanks to this draft, the UFAs they have after 2021 may not be brought back, Aaron Banks & Jaylon Moore could make Laken Tomlinson expendable, plus I doubt the 49ers will want to pay him $5.5M a yr on a new deal.
Tartt, IMO, is unlikely to return, with Hufanga taking over in 2022.
FAs I see the 49ers trying to retain include, as long as 2021 goes well for these guys, RB Jeff Wilson Jr., RB Wayne Gallman Jr., WR Trent Sherfield, TE Ross Dwelley, C Daniel Brunskill, DE Arden Key, DE Jordan Willis, DT Maurice Hurst Jr., NT D.J. Jones, NT Zach Kerr, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, CB Jason Verrett, CB K'Waun Williams, FS Tarvarius Moore, & SS Marcell Harris.
All but Brunskill & Al-Shaair are UFAs after 2021, they will be RFAs, if Givens isn't convicted, then I believe he makes it, and he'd be a ERFA in 2022, also if Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles makes it, he's also a ERFA in 2022.
I'm not including MLB Fred Warner, as I'm 100% sure/confident he's extended this offseason, the 49ers can't let him hit the open market, even as a franchise tagged player, which will likely be over $17M, so it's smart to extend him, where he'd have a small cap number, around $5.5M, like with Kittle's deal last offseason.
Also, I can see Tarvarius Moore end up taking over Ward's spot at FS if he plays well, cutting Ward save around $7M in 2022.
Jimmy will most definitely not be back, they'll save around $25M. Also Deebo Samuel, Dre Greenlaw, & Mitch Wishnowsky's base salaries could escalate to $2.348M, which is what the original round tender for 2022 would be if the cap is $203M according to OTC.
So after factoring in draft picks, cutting/trading Jimmy, the escalated base salaries, and a Warner extension at $5.5M for 2022, the 49ers would have $15,927,147 in salary cap room on a $203M cap, there's a chance the cap may end up higher, but likely no higher than the $203M-$205M projection.
As I said above, the team would save around $7M if they cut Ward, it would be $6.795M after the top 51 rule with someone making $705K(2022's rookie minimum) replacing him on the top 51.
So that would give the team $22,722,147 in cap room for 2022 to retain the likes of Jeff Wilson Jr., Wayne Gallman Jr., Trent Sherfield, Ross Dwelley, Daniel Brunskill, Arden Key, Jordan Willis, Maurice Hurst Jr., D.J. Jones, Zach Kerr, Azeez Al-Shaair, Jason Verrett, K'Waun Williams, Tarvarius Moore, & Marcell Harris.
It's not impossible to retain most of these guys with that $22M in cap room, the 49ers did a great job this offseason signing many players from 2020, and adding 2 key FAs, so it's very possible, and even probable.
The one thing is Brunskill, I can see them doing a 1yr deal before FA begins, like they did with Wilson, Dwelley, & Harris this offseason to avoid them being RFAs, something less than the $2.348M tender, also the same with Al-Shaair.
As for ERFAs, if Givens & Flannigan-Fowles are on the roster, they would cost $895K to tender them at the 3rd year minimum.
They can create more cap room by redoing someone like Armstead, and/or Kittle, they would save $8.332M for Kittle, & $10,424M for Armstead.
So the team could have between $15,927,147-$41,478,147, but the team honestly doesn't need that much cap room IMO, and as I said I can see them retaining most of their guys with that $22M if they do cut Ward, now if they don't cut Ward, then they'd need to create some cap room, so someone would be restructured, Kittle makes the most sense, because he's not going anywhere anytime soon, where Armstead being redone would make it tough to get out of his contract after 2022, but I do see him being here for 2022 and beyond, it all really depends on what the 49ers feel is the best for the future.
Also the team could end up with credits, maybe not as much as the $10M+ they got for 2021, but a good amount that would help, maybe $5M, getting them to $20M without cutting Ward, which still would be enough to retain most of our FAs that the team wants back.
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AB81Rules
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Originally posted by NinerBuff:
Originally posted by hummbabybear:
Tracking the draft picks only:
Baalke Picks
- Locks: Jimmie Ward, Arik Armstead
- Weak Bubble: Dontae Johnson
Lynch 2017
- Locks: George Kittle, D.J. Jones
Lynch 2018
- Locks: Mike McGlinchey, Fred Warner
- Strong Bubble: Tarvarius Moore, Kentavius Street, Richie James
- Weak Bubble: Marcell Harris (drafting Talanoa Hufanga puts pressure on him)
Lynch 2019
- Locks: Nick Bosa, Deebo Samuel, Mitch Wishnowsky, Dre Greenlaw
- Strong Bubble: Jalen Hurd
- Weak Bubble: Tim Harris, Justin Skule (drafting Ambry Thomas, Deommodore Lenoir and Jaylon Moore puts pressure on them)
Lynch 2020
- Locks: Javon Kinlaw, Brandon Aiyuk
- Stong Bubble: Colton McKivitz
- Weak Bubble: Charlie Woerner, Jauan Jennings (the 3rd TE spot will be pretty wide open competion and if Hurd is healthy Jennings has an uphill battle to make the team)
The 2017 draft had 10 selections and only 2 are left. Lynch's subsequent drafts have more players who look like they will stick. Note also that homegrown draft picks are about 1/2 the roster, so it is a balancing act between draft and free agency to find the best players.
I like this breakdown. I'd put Charlie Woerner in the strong bubble level.
I'd also put McKivitz as a lock, from what I've been told they're high on him, doubt they cut him.
Also you forgot Mostert & Tartt for Baalke picks as Locks, Tartt's deals is fully GTD.
How many Pre-Lynch/Shanahan guys are still here?
RB Raheem Mostert (He was on the team in 2016 when Chip Kelly was HC)
DE Arik Armstead
NT D.J. Jones
CB Dontae Johnson
FS Jimmie Ward
SS Jaquiski Tartt
So only 6 remain, means Lynch/Shanahan have completely overhauled the roster in their 5yrs here, 84 players right now on the roster were either selected by them, signed as FAs, traded for, or UDFAs signed. And imagine the roster they had to work with in 2017, had literally no talent anywhere near what Harbaugh had in 2011.
