Originally posted by NinerBuff:
Originally posted by AB81Rules:
53-Man Roster, with Injured, & Practice Squad players.
QB(3): Jimmy Garoppolo(2022)/ Trey Lance(2024)/ Nate Sudfeld(2021)
RB(5): Raheem Mostert(2021)/ Jeff Wilson(2021)/ Trey Sermon(2024)/ Wayne Gallman Jr.(2021)/ Elijah Mitchell(2024)
FB(1): Kyle Juszyzck
WR(6): Brandon Aiyuk(2023)/ Deebo Samuel(2022)/ Trent Sherfield(2021)/ Jalen Hurd(2022)/ Richie James Jr.(2021)/ Mohamed Sanu Sr.(2021)
TE(3): George Kittle(2025)/ Ross Dwelley(2021)/ Charlie Woerner(2023)
C(2): Alex Mack(2023)/ Daniel Brunskill(2021)
OG(3): Laken Tomlinson(2021)/ Aaron Banks(2024)/ Colton McKivitz(2023)
OT(3): Trent Williams(2026)/ Mike McGlinchey(2022)/ Jaylon Moore(2024)
DE(5): Arik Armstead(2024)/ Nick Bosa(2022)/ Samson Ebukam(2022)/ Arden Key(2021)/ Jordan Willis(2021)
DT(2): Javon Kinlaw(2023)/ Maurice Hurst Jr.(2021)
NT(2): D.J. Jones(2021)/ Zach Kerr(2021)
LB(5): Fred Warner(2021)/ Dre Greenlaw(2022)/ Azeez Al-Shaair(2021)/ Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles(2021)/ Nathan Gerry(2021)
CB(5): Jason Verrett(2021)/ Emmanuel Moseley(2022)/ K'Waun Williams(2021)/ Ambry Thomas(2024)/ Deommodore Lenoir(2024)
S(5): Jimmie Ward(2022)/ Jaquiski Tartt(2021)/ Tarvarius Moore(2021)/ Marcell Harris(2021)/ Talanoa Hufanga(2024)
ST(3): Robbie Gould(2022)/ Mitch Wishnowsky(2022)/ Taybor Pepper(2022)
Short Term IR: DE Dee Ford(2022)
Practice Squad(16 total)
1. QB Josh Rosen
2. RB JaMycal Hasty
3. FB Josh Hokit
4. WR Jauan Jennings
5. WR Austin Watkins Jr.
6. TE Josh Pederson
7. OG Dakoda Shepley
8. OT Justin Skule
9. DE Alex Barrett
10. NT Darrion Daniels
11. LB Elijah Sullivan
12. LB Justin Dilliard
13. CB Tim Harris Jr.
14. CB Dontae Johnson
15. FS Jared Mayden
16. FS/SS Tavon Wilson
With this roster, the 49ers would have $8,101,218 in cap room, less when Fred Warner signs an extension, likely $3M less, so $5,101,218 to start 2021, and if Rosen ends up being the #3 QB, the cap room would go down by $252K, with Sudfeld on the PS making that amount, and the 49ers would get a $252K credit in 2022.
They do have options for gaining more cap room, via restructures, they can save $4.528M by restructuring Armstead's deal, they can save up to $5.86M by restructuring Ward's deal, but that would virtually guarantee Ward is a 49ers in 2022.
Lastly they could either extend or restructure Laken Tomlinson's contract, they'd save up to $2.808M, if they just restructured his contract, they'd have a higher dead money for him in 2022 than his already $1,005,530, if the redo was for 4 more voidable years, they'd be left with a total of $2.808M more, something the 49ers simply shouldn't think about doing.
More on Ward, if they redid his deal, that would add on up to $5.86M to Ward's dead money in 2023, which is $2M, as his deal has a voidable year in it. They would actually save money in 2022 if they did cut Ward, it would either be $7.5M Pre June 1 or just $1.64M if they redid his deal.
As for Armstead, they would either save $3.5M in 2022 with a Pre June 1 cut, or they'd lose $1.028M if they redid his deal this year. Now I don't actually see the 49ers releasing Armstead, so this would be the most sensible one to me.
And yes we can't forget Jimmy Garoppolo, but there is no way he'll take a pay cut, nor should the 49ers redo his deal, if they did, they'd save max $18.42M, but in 2022 they would save $25.6M by cutting or trading him, or it would end up being just $8.58M, so I don't see that happening.
For now, I have Kevin Givens not making the team, I can actually see him being suspended if he's not sentenced to any jail time, but is found guilty.
I believe the key camp battles will be the following.
#6 WR: Mohamed Sanu Sr., Jauan Jennings, Travis Benjamin, & Austin Watkins Jr.
Starting RG: Aaron Banks, Daniel Brunskill, & Colton McKivitz
Swing T: Jaylon Moore, Shon Coleman, & Justin Skule
Backup LBs: Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles, Nathan Gerry, Justin Dilliard, & Elijah Sullivan
The 49ers may actually go with the cheaper options, they could have Watkins on the 53, with Sanu on the PS, same as Gerry to PS, with Dilliard or Sullivan making the 53, also the fact that Watkins & Sullivan/Dilliard would be signed for 3yrs(2021-2023).
I kept all 5 backs, as I see Kyle not wanting to get rid of any of them, and he has final say on the 53, in this roster, Mitchell replaces Givens, due to the uncertainty of Givens's legal issues.
Plus with Mostert, Wilson, & Gallman all UFAs after 2021, Sermon & Mitchell are signed for 4yrs(2021-2024), so it'd be smart to keep both RB draft picks since they're on cheap rookie deals, where Mostert will likely want a bigger deal than he got, where he makes $2.9M a yr on average, so I see Wilson being the guy who is re-signed to a multi year deal(2-3 year deal).
Also thanks to this draft, the UFAs they have after 2021 may not be brought back, Aaron Banks & Jaylon Moore could make Laken Tomlinson expendable, plus I doubt the 49ers will want to pay him $5.5M a yr on a new deal.
Tartt, IMO, is unlikely to return, with Hufanga taking over in 2022.
FAs I see the 49ers trying to retain include, as long as 2021 goes well for these guys, RB Jeff Wilson Jr., RB Wayne Gallman Jr., WR Trent Sherfield, TE Ross Dwelley, C Daniel Brunskill, DE Arden Key, DE Jordan Willis, DT Maurice Hurst Jr., NT D.J. Jones, NT Zach Kerr, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, CB Jason Verrett, CB K'Waun Williams, FS Tarvarius Moore, & SS Marcell Harris.
All but Brunskill & Al-Shaair are UFAs after 2021, they will be RFAs, if Givens isn't convicted, then I believe he makes it, and he'd be a ERFA in 2022, also if Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles makes it, he's also a ERFA in 2022.
I'm not including MLB Fred Warner, as I'm 100% sure/confident he's extended this offseason, the 49ers can't let him hit the open market, even as a franchise tagged player, which will likely be over $17M, so it's smart to extend him, where he'd have a small cap number, around $5.5M, like with Kittle's deal last offseason.
Also, I can see Tarvarius Moore end up taking over Ward's spot at FS if he plays well, cutting Ward save around $7M in 2022.
Jimmy will most definitely not be back, they'll save around $25M. Also Deebo Samuel, Dre Greenlaw, & Mitch Wishnowsky's base salaries could escalate to $2.348M, which is what the original round tender for 2022 would be if the cap is $203M according to OTC.
So after factoring in draft picks, cutting/trading Jimmy, the escalated base salaries, and a Warner extension at $5.5M for 2022, the 49ers would have $15,927,147 in salary cap room on a $203M cap, there's a chance the cap may end up higher, but likely no higher than the $203M-$205M projection.
As I said above, the team would save around $7M if they cut Ward, it would be $6.795M after the top 51 rule with someone making $705K(2022's rookie minimum) replacing him on the top 51.
So that would give the team $22,722,147 in cap room for 2022 to retain the likes of Jeff Wilson Jr., Wayne Gallman Jr., Trent Sherfield, Ross Dwelley, Daniel Brunskill, Arden Key, Jordan Willis, Maurice Hurst Jr., D.J. Jones, Zach Kerr, Azeez Al-Shaair, Jason Verrett, K'Waun Williams, Tarvarius Moore, & Marcell Harris.
It's not impossible to retain most of these guys with that $22M in cap room, the 49ers did a great job this offseason signing many players from 2020, and adding 2 key FAs, so it's very possible, and even probable.
The one thing is Brunskill, I can see them doing a 1yr deal before FA begins, like they did with Wilson, Dwelley, & Harris this offseason to avoid them being RFAs, something less than the $2.348M tender, also the same with Al-Shaair.
As for ERFAs, if Givens & Flannigan-Fowles are on the roster, they would cost $895K to tender them at the 3rd year minimum.
They can create more cap room by redoing someone like Armstead, and/or Kittle, they would save $8.332M for Kittle, & $10,424M for Armstead.
So the team could have between $15,927,147-$41,478,147, but the team honestly doesn't need that much cap room IMO, and as I said I can see them retaining most of their guys with that $22M if they do cut Ward, now if they don't cut Ward, then they'd need to create some cap room, so someone would be restructured, Kittle makes the most sense, because he's not going anywhere anytime soon, where Armstead being redone would make it tough to get out of his contract after 2022, but I do see him being here for 2022 and beyond, it all really depends on what the 49ers feel is the best for the future.
Also the team could end up with credits, maybe not as much as the $10M+ they got for 2021, but a good amount that would help, maybe $5M, getting them to $20M without cutting Ward, which still would be enough to retain most of our FAs that the team wants back.
AB, the resident WZ doctorate
Thanks as always Buff,