Excellent post! One point where I strongly disagree is on the Buckner trade. He simply wasn't worth the price tag the Colts ultimately paid, especially given that we wanted to retain Kittle, Warner, AA, and others at better values (plus Bosa, Deebo, etc on the horizon). So exchanging Buckner for a high 1st was a fantastic move in the abstract.
The trade only
feels bad in hindsight because we've gotten 0 production from Kinlaw. Had we drafted CeeDee Lamb at 14 (probably next on our board), literally no one would be questioning this move (not to mention Justin Jefferson or AJ Terrell
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, or even Tristan Wirfs at 13).
I would argue that Taking Kinlaw hasn't simply been a bad result but was also bad process. He was raw with some injury red flags, but more importantly he was an interior DL, and the whole point of moving on from Buckner is that an IDL (besides the transcendent Aaron Donald) isn't worth that maximal investment. It's not like we're all pining for better DT play. The reasons we're at least a full tier behind the best teams are very simple: we're weak at QB and pathetic at CB.
In general, I think it's a mistake to think we can predict who will get injured and who won't. BUT someone with an injury history like Verrett is an outlier. You have to assume he won't be available and build your roster accordingly, then treat anything he gives you as found money. The way the FO approached the CB position this offseason was truly negligent imo.