49ers Biggest Problem is NOT What Many Think..

The only free agents I'd consider re-signing are Laken Tomlinson no doubt about it, Ross Dwelley, Juan Jennings and Maurice Hurst. Everyone else can get the f**k out.

Originally posted by Kolohe:

The only free agents I'd consider re-signing are Laken Tomlinson no doubt about it, Ross Dwelley, Juan Jennings and Maurice Hurst. Everyone else can get the f**k out.

Yeah most of the guys I highlighted are just players I'd want for added depth and/or STs ability. We have SO much room to improve, and with many of our aging, mega-injury-prone players being free agents after this season, we ACTUALLY have a chance to do the right thing and find more reliable replacements for those guys.

If they want to keep Ward, fine, but at least draft a suitable FS of the future like they did with Hufanga at SS, who I expect to be the starter next year at SS after Tartt walks in Free Agency (he SHOULD, rather...)

Lenoir may be the next slot CB. Banks might be the next RG. Who knows.. but we definitely need to clear out the junk and use our cap space for proven, reliable talent.

When you're depending on 5th and 6th round talent to shore up the team lol

Originally posted by 49erminion:
Some roster comparison observations between division teams.
superstar = elite player and not over the hill (aka JJ Watt, AJ Green; Von Miller barely made it) a

Lambs superstars (6)

Stafford
Kupp
OBJ
Donald
Miller
Ramsey

Cucks superstars (5)

Wilson
Metcalf
Lockett
Adams (lulz)
Wagner

Terds superstars (4)

Murray
Hopkins
Jones
Baker

49er superstars (5)

Kittle
Deebo
Warner
Bosa
Williams

Yes, the issue is clearly not enough role/complimentary (draft/FA suckage) players + horrible coaching and game planning and motivation :). Oh shiot and I forgot...QB :)

Good work.

Now compare the snap counts of these same players.

I don't see how talent retention is the biggest problem. You mentioned Buckner and ESanders, but Buckner is the only real loss imo. They've retained big Trent, Kittle, Warner, Juice, four of the best at their positions. They were able to re-sign Verrett and KWaun Williams when it was thought those guys might leave. What young/middle aged players have they not been able to keep besides Buckner?

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
NOT THE ISSUE: ADDING ROOKIE TALENT
I've seen many say our drafts have been crap, and if you ONLY looked at the big whiffs in particular in a couple of our classes on early picks, you'd think "Good God, they suck at drafting..." But analyzing our hit rate versus other teams, ours is actually significantly better than I expected. I estimate we drafted contributors on at least 16/40 picks over the past 5 years (40% hit rate). Looking at our division foes, we have done significantly better than Seattle and LA (although they've gotten talent to stay competitive in other ways -- more on that later). The strange thing is just that the 49ers are somehow managing to do it very backwards, hitting on tons of late picks and UDFAs more than their picks in the first four rounds.

These are the ones I qualified as "hits" or "contributors" in my opinion:
OL Jaylon Moore (5th)
CB Deommodore Lenoir (5th)
S Talanoa Hufanga (5th)
RB Elijah Mitchell (6th)
WR Brandon Aiyuk (1st)
TE Charlie Woener (6th)
DE Nick Bosa (1st)
WR Deebo Samuel (2nd)
P Mitch Wishnowsky (4th)
LB Dre Greenlaw (5th)
TE Kaden Smith (6th) - Not with the team, but lost from PS to NYG where he's started.
OT Mike McGlinchey (1st)
LB Fred Warner (3rd)
S/LB Marcell Harris (6th)
TE George Kittle (5th)
DT DJ Jones (6th)

On average, we have added at least 1 Pro Bowler per year in the draft (Warner, Kittle, Bosa, and Samuel likely makes it this year if healthy)

THE REAL ISSUE: TALENT RETENTION & OVERALL RISK MANAGEMENT IN PERSONNEL DECISIONS
First off, plain and simple, we have not found a way to keep our best players/leaders here (Buckner and Sanders, for example). This problem has been compounded by the fact that the team has been absolutely horrific at managing their risk, relying on players with injury histories at STARTING POSITIONS, such as Jimmy G, Verrett, Ward, Tartt, Mostert, Ford, K'Waun Williams, Aziz Al-Shaair, DJ Jones, Jeff Wilson, and Kentavius Street. We know that these players can do some good while on the field, but we pay them too much to miss as many games as they have. This level of risk -- essentially fielding half or more than half of an entire side of the ball's starters -- seems absolutely insane to me. It's not like those guys I mentioned suddenly had a slew of injuries just recently. They've been known injury prone guys for years, some even dating back to college.

PROBLEM IDENTIFIED, SO WHAT'S THE ANSWER?: SIGNIFICANT ROSTER SHAKE-UP
The team absolutely must change its approach in 2022, and I'd like to see significant roster turnover and a fresh start with as many new faces replacing aging, injury prone players who are set to become UFAs in 2022. Below, the bold are the FAs I'd consider keeping for the right price.

49ERS 2022 FREE AGENTS
C Jake Brendel
CB Jason Verrett
CB K'Waun Williams
CB Josh Norman
CB Dre Kirkpatrick
CB Dontae Johnson
DE Arden Key
DE Jordan Willis
DT D.J. Jones
DT Maurice Hurst
DT Kentavius Street
DT Kevin Givens
LB Marcell Harris
LB Azeez Al-Shaair
LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles
LG Laken Tomlinson
RB Raheem Mostert
RB Jeff Wilson
RB Trenton Cannon
RB JaMycal Hasty
RG Tom Compton
RG Daniel Brunskill
S Jaquiski Tartt
S Tavon Wilson
S Tarvarius Moore
S Kai Nacua
TE Ross Dwelley
WR Mohamed Sanu
WR Travis Benjamin
WR Trent Sherfield
WR Jauan Jennings
WR Richie James

NON-FREE AGENTS THAT I'D CUT OR TRADE (IF POSSIBLE) WHOSE CAP IMPACT WOULD ALLOW IT
QB Jimmy Garoppolo - Obvious reasons, big contract and not the future
DE Samson Ebukam - Don't think he's fitting as well as they thought he would. Might be expendable with Omenihu joining us.
S Jimmie Ward - Post June 1st cut/trade
DE Dee Ford - Post June 1st cut

Summary/Bottom Line:
The 49ers have completely mismanaged their resources. They've passed too often on adding star talent via trades (but had no issues trading three 1sts and more for a raw rookie QB), and they've spent tons of money on players with injury histories, consistently finishing among league leaders in players on IR/salary cap percentage on IR. And even in the draft where they've actually done better than people think, they've spent resources on a lot more players with medical concerns than you'd like. The bottom line is that their philosophy needs to change. If you have a superstar that's a leader, KEEP THEM. Kittle, Warner, and Trent are good examples. They failed with Buck. So, quit with the "Moneyball" crap, and put more emphasis on toughness and reliability, which Buckner was a perfect model of. Otherwise, we're going to continue to see the majority of our starters stretchered off or carted off the field as we're yet again forced to field a pre-season style roster.

Why are we cutting our best player in the secondary?

B/c they aren't good and need to be upgraded. We have safeties that create turnovers and you guys are expecting us to win. Look how they performed in the super bowl We have a free safety with no PBU's and hasn't had a int in about 2 years.

Good thread OTC but they do have a drafting issue as well. there early round picks have been total crap outside a few guys. No way to get around that. It's a combination of everything.

Originally posted by thl408:

I don't see how talent retention is the biggest problem. You mentioned Buckner and ESanders, but Buckner is the only real loss imo. They've retained big Trent, Kittle, Warner, Juice, four of the best at their positions. They were able to re-sign Verrett and KWaun Williams when it was thought those guys might leave. What young/middle aged players have they not been able to keep besides Buckner?

I guess I should've clarified, the lack of risk management as far as putting too much faith in injury prone players is a different form of not keeping quality players on the field. At least I'm looking at it that way.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by thl408:
I don't see how talent retention is the biggest problem. You mentioned Buckner and ESanders, but Buckner is the only real loss imo. They've retained big Trent, Kittle, Warner, Juice, four of the best at their positions. They were able to re-sign Verrett and KWaun Williams when it was thought those guys might leave. What young/middle aged players have they not been able to keep besides Buckner?

I guess I should've clarified, the lack of risk management as far as putting too much faith in injury prone players is a different form of not keeping quality players on the field. At least I'm looking at it that way.

Got it. You started off the post with "first off they can't retain their talent" and it threw me off because I don't consider ESanders a key piece, but that's debatable. So him and Buckner were the only ones I can think of, and have some regret that they left. Putting faith in injury prone players is a real problem, I agree there.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
NOT THE ISSUE: ADDING ROOKIE TALENT
I've seen many say our drafts have been crap, and if you ONLY looked at the big whiffs in particular in a couple of our classes on early picks, you'd think "Good God, they suck at drafting..." But analyzing our hit rate versus other teams, ours is actually significantly better than I expected. I estimate we drafted contributors on at least 16/40 picks over the past 5 years (40% hit rate). Looking at our division foes, we have done significantly better than Seattle and LA (although they've gotten talent to stay competitive in other ways -- more on that later). The strange thing is just that the 49ers are somehow managing to do it very backwards, hitting on tons of late picks and UDFAs more than their picks in the first four rounds.

These are the ones I qualified as "hits" or "contributors" in my opinion:
OL Jaylon Moore (5th)
CB Deommodore Lenoir (5th)
S Talanoa Hufanga (5th)
RB Elijah Mitchell (6th)
WR Brandon Aiyuk (1st)
TE Charlie Woener (6th)
DE Nick Bosa (1st)
WR Deebo Samuel (2nd)
P Mitch Wishnowsky (4th)
LB Dre Greenlaw (5th)
TE Kaden Smith (6th) - Not with the team, but lost from PS to NYG where he's started.
OT Mike McGlinchey (1st)
LB Fred Warner (3rd)
S/LB Marcell Harris (6th)
TE George Kittle (5th)
DT DJ Jones (6th)

On average, we have added at least 1 Pro Bowler per year in the draft (Warner, Kittle, Bosa, and Samuel likely makes it this year if healthy)

THE REAL ISSUE: TALENT RETENTION & OVERALL RISK MANAGEMENT IN PERSONNEL DECISIONS
First off, plain and simple, we have not found a way to keep our best players/leaders here (Buckner and Sanders, for example). This problem has been compounded by the fact that the team has been absolutely horrific at managing their risk, relying on players with injury histories at STARTING POSITIONS, such as Jimmy G, Verrett, Ward, Tartt, Mostert, Ford, K'Waun Williams, Aziz Al-Shaair, DJ Jones, Jeff Wilson, and Kentavius Street. We know that these players can do some good while on the field, but we pay them too much to miss as many games as they have. This level of risk -- essentially fielding half or more than half of an entire side of the ball's starters -- seems absolutely insane to me. It's not like those guys I mentioned suddenly had a slew of injuries just recently. They've been known injury prone guys for years, some even dating back to college.

PROBLEM IDENTIFIED, SO WHAT'S THE ANSWER?: SIGNIFICANT ROSTER SHAKE-UP
The team absolutely must change its approach in 2022, and I'd like to see significant roster turnover and a fresh start with as many new faces replacing aging, injury prone players who are set to become UFAs in 2022. Below, the bold are the FAs I'd consider keeping for the right price.

49ERS 2022 FREE AGENTS
C Jake Brendel
CB Jason Verrett
CB K'Waun Williams
CB Josh Norman
CB Dre Kirkpatrick
CB Dontae Johnson
DE Arden Key
DE Jordan Willis
DT D.J. Jones
DT Maurice Hurst
DT Kentavius Street
DT Kevin Givens
LB Marcell Harris
LB Azeez Al-Shaair
LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles
LG Laken Tomlinson
RB Raheem Mostert
RB Jeff Wilson
RB Trenton Cannon
RB JaMycal Hasty
RG Tom Compton
RG Daniel Brunskill
S Jaquiski Tartt
S Tavon Wilson
S Tarvarius Moore
S Kai Nacua
TE Ross Dwelley
WR Mohamed Sanu
WR Travis Benjamin
WR Trent Sherfield
WR Jauan Jennings
WR Richie James

NON-FREE AGENTS THAT I'D CUT OR TRADE (IF POSSIBLE) WHOSE CAP IMPACT WOULD ALLOW IT
QB Jimmy Garoppolo - Obvious reasons, big contract and not the future
DE Samson Ebukam - Don't think he's fitting as well as they thought he would. Might be expendable with Omenihu joining us.
S Jimmie Ward - Post June 1st cut/trade
DE Dee Ford - Post June 1st cut

Summary/Bottom Line:
The 49ers have completely mismanaged their resources. They've passed too often on adding star talent via trades (but had no issues trading three 1sts and more for a raw rookie QB), and they've spent tons of money on players with injury histories, consistently finishing among league leaders in players on IR/salary cap percentage on IR. And even in the draft where they've actually done better than people think, they've spent resources on a lot more players with medical concerns than you'd like. The bottom line is that their philosophy needs to change. If you have a superstar that's a leader, KEEP THEM. Kittle, Warner, and Trent are good examples. They failed with Buck. So, quit with the "Moneyball" crap, and put more emphasis on toughness and reliability, which Buckner was a perfect model of. Otherwise, we're going to continue to see the majority of our starters stretchered off or carted off the field as we're yet again forced to field a pre-season style roster.

The overhype of NFL draft defines why fans over emphasis draft success. In reality, most NFL rookies never play a meaningful career so the 40% success rate is reasonable although as suggested by NC, not hitting on 1-4rds makes it more difficult to succeed. Roster management is a failure as you have suggested.

Agreed about the drafting part. We are just below average in drafting rounds 1,2,3 but are GOAT level drafting in the later rounds.

Folks on here don't understand just how much of a crapshoot the draft really is. Great drafting teams only hit on average 3 picks per year. When I say hit I mean average and above.

i think our problem revolves around player development.

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by thl408:
I don't see how talent retention is the biggest problem. You mentioned Buckner and ESanders, but Buckner is the only real loss imo. They've retained big Trent, Kittle, Warner, Juice, four of the best at their positions. They were able to re-sign Verrett and KWaun Williams when it was thought those guys might leave. What young/middle aged players have they not been able to keep besides Buckner?

I guess I should've clarified, the lack of risk management as far as putting too much faith in injury prone players is a different form of not keeping quality players on the field. At least I'm looking at it that way.

Got it. You started off the post with "first off they can't retain their talent" and it threw me off because I don't consider ESanders a key piece, but that's debatable. So him and Buckner were the only ones I can think of, and have some regret that they left. Putting faith in injury prone players is a real problem, I agree there.

Yeah its crazy how injury prone these guys are.

I recall Lynch admitting for 2021, they removed any player with injury flags from their board. It took so many misses for them to realize this? But then they draft players that cant contribute regardless? sigh....

To be objective I believe the players overall still respect Kyle, but I think the repeated injuries to key players every year has just deflated the players, and even the coaches to a degree tbh.

Originally posted by Cisco0623:

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by thl408:
I don't see how talent retention is the biggest problem. You mentioned Buckner and ESanders, but Buckner is the only real loss imo. They've retained big Trent, Kittle, Warner, Juice, four of the best at their positions. They were able to re-sign Verrett and KWaun Williams when it was thought those guys might leave. What young/middle aged players have they not been able to keep besides Buckner?

I guess I should've clarified, the lack of risk management as far as putting too much faith in injury prone players is a different form of not keeping quality players on the field. At least I'm looking at it that way.

Got it. You started off the post with "first off they can't retain their talent" and it threw me off because I don't consider ESanders a key piece, but that's debatable. So him and Buckner were the only ones I can think of, and have some regret that they left. Putting faith in injury prone players is a real problem, I agree there.

Yeah its crazy how injury prone these guys are.

I recall Lynch admitting for 2021, they removed any player with injury flags from their board. It took so many misses for them to realize this? But then they draft players that cant contribute regardless? sigh....

To be objective I believe the players overall still respect Kyle, but I think the repeated injuries to key players every year has just deflated the players, and even the coaches to a degree tbh.

They took Trey Sermon so that was a lie.

Originally posted by Hysterikal:

Originally posted by Cisco0623:

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by thl408:
I don't see how talent retention is the biggest problem. You mentioned Buckner and ESanders, but Buckner is the only real loss imo. They've retained big Trent, Kittle, Warner, Juice, four of the best at their positions. They were able to re-sign Verrett and KWaun Williams when it was thought those guys might leave. What young/middle aged players have they not been able to keep besides Buckner?

I guess I should've clarified, the lack of risk management as far as putting too much faith in injury prone players is a different form of not keeping quality players on the field. At least I'm looking at it that way.

Got it. You started off the post with "first off they can't retain their talent" and it threw me off because I don't consider ESanders a key piece, but that's debatable. So him and Buckner were the only ones I can think of, and have some regret that they left. Putting faith in injury prone players is a real problem, I agree there.

Yeah its crazy how injury prone these guys are.

I recall Lynch admitting for 2021, they removed any player with injury flags from their board. It took so many misses for them to realize this? But then they draft players that cant contribute regardless? sigh....

To be objective I believe the players overall still respect Kyle, but I think the repeated injuries to key players every year has just deflated the players, and even the coaches to a degree tbh.

They took Trey Sermon so that was a lie.

He got hurt the last season in college right? Who knows with these cats.

The problem is it doesn't matter if you keep drafting decent 5th rounders when you miss too much in the top rounds.

Originally posted by thl408:
I don't see how talent retention is the biggest problem. You mentioned Buckner and ESanders, but Buckner is the only real loss imo. They've retained big Trent, Kittle, Warner, Juice, four of the best at their positions. They were able to re-sign Verrett and KWaun Williams when it was thought those guys might leave. What young/middle aged players have they not been able to keep besides Buckner?

I agree. Also, I think OTC is being extremely generous with his list of hits/contributors. Marcell Harris is awful; Kaden Smith...really? ; Lenoir is a healthy scratch for many weeks now; Jaylon Moore has played 1 game--pump the brakes; Hufanga looked awful last week; Woerner has had 1 noticeable game in 2 years, and it's because he nailed a few blocks.

The 49ers have made 35 selections in the last 4 drafts. I count 9 good decisions they've made, and honestly, they shouldn't get credit for Nick Bosa but I'll give it to them. 9/35. That means about 75% of their draft picks are either not good or absolute failures. I don't get how drafting isn't a(the) main problem.

RB Elijah Mitchell (6th)
WR Brandon Aiyuk (1st)
DE Nick Bosa (1st)
WR Deebo Samuel (2nd)
P Mitch Wishnowsky (4th)
LB Dre Greenlaw (5th)
LB Fred Warner (3rd)
TE George Kittle (5th)
DT DJ Jones (6th)

Originally posted by Heroism:

Originally posted by thl408:
I don't see how talent retention is the biggest problem. You mentioned Buckner and ESanders, but Buckner is the only real loss imo. They've retained big Trent, Kittle, Warner, Juice, four of the best at their positions. They were able to re-sign Verrett and KWaun Williams when it was thought those guys might leave. What young/middle aged players have they not been able to keep besides Buckner?

I agree. Also, I think OTC is being extremely generous with his list of hits/contributors. Marcell Harris is awful; Kaden Smith...really? ; Lenoir is a healthy scratch for many weeks now; Jaylon Moore has played 1 game--pump the brakes; Hufanga looked awful last week; Woerner has had 1 noticeable game in 2 years, and it's because he nailed a few blocks.

The 49ers have made 35 selections in the last 4 drafts. I count 9 good decisions they've made, and honestly, they shouldn't get credit for Nick Bosa but I'll give it to them. 9/35. That means about 75% of their draft picks are either not good or absolute failures.

RB Elijah Mitchell (6th)
WR Brandon Aiyuk (1st)
DE Nick Bosa (1st)
WR Deebo Samuel (2nd)
P Mitch Wishnowsky (4th)
LB Dre Greenlaw (5th)
LB Fred Warner (3rd)
TE George Kittle (5th)
DT DJ Jones (6th)