49ers Biggest Problem is NOT What Many Think..

Originally posted by TheXFactor:

Originally posted by ComeOnDeberg:
The FO has done nothing to address RB depth after Mostert. Seem to just let it ride, not wanting to make any moves. We have significant coaching issues on all sides of the ball on top of talent retention and risk management.

Nothing? That's BS for sure. Wilson and Hasty, than drafting two more guys is a 5RB room. Wilson has improved each and every year.

Let me correct myself after Mostert and Wilson went down this year. They knew they had issues with Sermon and didn;t bother even trying to get real FA back help.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Yeah it comes down to couple things (that OTC brought up) we gave the keys to two guys that had zero experience building a team. One was a freaking broadcaster.

Talent evaluation for the most part has been s**t. We got guys in here that have been on point more then them. I'd love to see their draft board, I'd probably lose it lol. They don't believe in BPA or impact of position when they draft. HC's shouldn't be in charge of everything...checks and balances are needed to make a team work, clearly SF has none. Kyle wants Joe Williams even though he's off their board. He gets him, same with Pettis, Hurd, CJ etc. I mean WTF are we doing here.

After the draft issues, it comes down to a lack of development or really just allowing your rookie to play, which is in fact developing. They're awful here. IF you're top 50 pick at RG can't beat out Brunskill, you've either totally whiffed on that pick or you won't allow him to develop. Don't give me the "it's pretty hard to beat out x player" crap when that player is f**king junk and we all see it. I feel like Kyle overall just hates rookies and playing them...he wants ready made guys BUT is unwilling to go the Rams route to get them... or really allow them to play, deal with the lumps which will ultimately get them better. I mean unless you're a Kittle/Warner type rookie who just flashed from day 1, you're not getting on the field and if you do f**k up...you go back to the butt bench. You can't do that with young players today.

So after messing up draft evaluations, poor development, you got FA strategy issues as well....Instead of going and getting that in the prime stud player, they go the cheap route more often then not. They disregard the reasons as to why that player might be cheaper (injury history play on field) and hope it will magically change in SF. They depend on often injured players to take on meaningful snaps and as we've seen it's constantly bit them in the ass.

They miss mange their cap space, where the cash flow is going and hope cheap vet min players will become something they've never been.

Overall there's a lot of WTF are you doing as far as team building goes.

That's a damn fine rant right there.

Completely agree. Moneyball is a big part of what sunk the Harbaalke ship, and it's going to sink the Shanalynch ship too if they don't figure out that this is the problem with their resource management.

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Yeah it comes down to couple things (that OTC brought up) we gave the keys to two guys that had zero experience building a team. One was a freaking broadcaster.

Talent evaluation for the most part has been s**t. We got guys in here that have been on point more then them. I'd love to see their draft board, I'd probably lose it lol. They don't believe in BPA or impact of position when they draft. HC's shouldn't be in charge of everything...checks and balances are needed to make a team work, clearly SF has none. Kyle wants Joe Williams even though he's off their board. He gets him, same with Pettis, Hurd, CJ etc. I mean WTF are we doing here.

After the draft issues, it comes down to a lack of development or really just allowing your rookie to play, which is in fact developing. They're awful here. IF you're top 50 pick at RG can't beat out Brunskill, you've either totally whiffed on that pick or you won't allow him to develop. Don't give me the "it's pretty hard to beat out x player" crap when that player is f**king junk and we all see it. I feel like Kyle overall just hates rookies and playing them...he wants ready made guys BUT is unwilling to go the Rams route to get them... or really allow them to play, deal with the lumps which will ultimately get them better. I mean unless you're a Kittle/Warner type rookie who just flashed from day 1, you're not getting on the field and if you do f**k up...you go back to the butt bench. You can't do that with young players today.

So after messing up draft evaluations, poor development, you got FA strategy issues as well....Instead of going and getting that in the prime stud player, they go the cheap route more often then not. They disregard the reasons as to why that player might be cheaper (injury history play on field) and hope it will magically change in SF. They depend on often injured players to take on meaningful snaps and as we've seen it's constantly bit them in the ass.

They miss mange their cap space, where the cash flow is going and hope cheap vet min players will become something they've never been.

Overall there's a lot of WTF are you doing as far as team building goes.

Great post NY. I agree almost completely

Apologies, I've been off the zone a bit as it's been toxic in here recently, but the OP is exceptional.

Yes it has hindsight in it, but it's framed in the right way, there were obvious warning signs that were ignored.

I personally don't necessarily think that means heads need to roll, just a group re-evaluation and rethink, if they can't do that, and soon then yeah fire them all and start again.

This off-season is crucial. It will be hard to move from Verrett as his value will be rock bottom now, but it would signal a change of intent.

Originally posted by SFTifoso:
They're not. They're just gonna keep doing the same crap over and over again.

What? Keep on getting injured players hoping they'll catch " lightning in a bottle "?🙄

The big problem is our starters are dropping like flies.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Yeah it comes down to couple things (that OTC brought up) we gave the keys to two guys that had zero experience building a team. One was a freaking broadcaster.

Talent evaluation for the most part has been s**t. We got guys in here that have been on point more then them. I'd love to see their draft board, I'd probably lose it lol. They don't believe in BPA or impact of position when they draft. HC's shouldn't be in charge of everything...checks and balances are needed to make a team work, clearly SF has none. Kyle wants Joe Williams even though he's off their board. He gets him, same with Pettis, Hurd, CJ etc. I mean WTF are we doing here.

After the draft issues, it comes down to a lack of development or really just allowing your rookie to play, which is in fact developing. They're awful here. IF you're top 50 pick at RG can't beat out Brunskill, you've either totally whiffed on that pick or you won't allow him to develop. Don't give me the "it's pretty hard to beat out x player" crap when that player is f**king junk and we all see it. I feel like Kyle overall just hates rookies and playing them...he wants ready made guys BUT is unwilling to go the Rams route to get them... or really allow them to play, deal with the lumps which will ultimately get them better. I mean unless you're a Kittle/Warner type rookie who just flashed from day 1, you're not getting on the field and if you do f**k up...you go back to the butt bench. You can't do that with young players today.

So after messing up draft evaluations, poor development, you got FA strategy issues as well....Instead of going and getting that in the prime stud player, they go the cheap route more often then not. They disregard the reasons as to why that player might be cheaper (injury history play on field) and hope it will magically change in SF. They depend on often injured players to take on meaningful snaps and as we've seen it's constantly bit them in the ass.

They miss mange their cap space, where the cash flow is going and hope cheap vet min players will become something they've never been.

Overall there's a lot of WTF are you doing as far as team building goes.

That's a damn fine rant right there.

Completely agree. Moneyball is a big part of what sunk the Harbaalke ship, and it's going to sink the Shanalynch ship too if they don't figure out that this is the problem with their resource management.

No question. Same exact moneyball patterns under 3+ different regimes now.

Originally posted by BamaNiner:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Yeah it comes down to couple things (that OTC brought up) we gave the keys to two guys that had zero experience building a team. One was a freaking broadcaster.

Talent evaluation for the most part has been s**t. We got guys in here that have been on point more then them. I'd love to see their draft board, I'd probably lose it lol. They don't believe in BPA or impact of position when they draft. HC's shouldn't be in charge of everything...checks and balances are needed to make a team work, clearly SF has none. Kyle wants Joe Williams even though he's off their board. He gets him, same with Pettis, Hurd, CJ etc. I mean WTF are we doing here.

After the draft issues, it comes down to a lack of development or really just allowing your rookie to play, which is in fact developing. They're awful here. IF you're top 50 pick at RG can't beat out Brunskill, you've either totally whiffed on that pick or you won't allow him to develop. Don't give me the "it's pretty hard to beat out x player" crap when that player is f**king junk and we all see it. I feel like Kyle overall just hates rookies and playing them...he wants ready made guys BUT is unwilling to go the Rams route to get them... or really allow them to play, deal with the lumps which will ultimately get them better. I mean unless you're a Kittle/Warner type rookie who just flashed from day 1, you're not getting on the field and if you do f**k up...you go back to the butt bench. You can't do that with young players today.

So after messing up draft evaluations, poor development, you got FA strategy issues as well....Instead of going and getting that in the prime stud player, they go the cheap route more often then not. They disregard the reasons as to why that player might be cheaper (injury history play on field) and hope it will magically change in SF. They depend on often injured players to take on meaningful snaps and as we've seen it's constantly bit them in the ass.

They miss mange their cap space, where the cash flow is going and hope cheap vet min players will become something they've never been.

Overall there's a lot of WTF are you doing as far as team building goes.

Great post NY. I agree almost completely

Me, too.

Originally posted by Heroism:
I agree. Also, I think OTC is being extremely generous with his list of hits/contributors. Marcell Harris is awful; Kaden Smith...really? ; Lenoir is a healthy scratch for many weeks now; Jaylon Moore has played 1 game--pump the brakes; Hufanga looked awful last week; Woerner has had 1 noticeable game in 2 years, and it's because he nailed a few blocks.

The 49ers have made 35 selections in the last 4 drafts. I count 9 good decisions they've made, and honestly, they shouldn't get credit for Nick Bosa but I'll give it to them. 9/35. That means about 75% of their draft picks are either not good or absolute failures. I don't get how drafting isn't a(the) main problem.

RB Elijah Mitchell (6th)
WR Brandon Aiyuk (1st)
DE Nick Bosa (1st)
WR Deebo Samuel (2nd)
P Mitch Wishnowsky (4th)
LB Dre Greenlaw (5th)
LB Fred Warner (3rd)
TE George Kittle (5th)
DT DJ Jones (6th)

Your expectations of a draft pick is outrageous. Teams are lucky to get 3 players from a draft class that contribute in any way shape or form. If a team picks up 1 starter and 2 role players then that's an average draft if you look at the class 3 or 4 years down the road.

geesh some of you really think great drafting teams hit on 50% or more on their picks. Go back and look at draft classes from other teams. They are just as bad.

Originally posted by miked1978:

Originally posted by Heroism:
I agree. Also, I think OTC is being extremely generous with his list of hits/contributors. Marcell Harris is awful; Kaden Smith...really? ; Lenoir is a healthy scratch for many weeks now; Jaylon Moore has played 1 game--pump the brakes; Hufanga looked awful last week; Woerner has had 1 noticeable game in 2 years, and it's because he nailed a few blocks.

The 49ers have made 35 selections in the last 4 drafts. I count 9 good decisions they've made, and honestly, they shouldn't get credit for Nick Bosa but I'll give it to them. 9/35. That means about 75% of their draft picks are either not good or absolute failures. I don't get how drafting isn't a(the) main problem.

RB Elijah Mitchell (6th)
WR Brandon Aiyuk (1st)
DE Nick Bosa (1st)
WR Deebo Samuel (2nd)
P Mitch Wishnowsky (4th)
LB Dre Greenlaw (5th)
LB Fred Warner (3rd)
TE George Kittle (5th)
DT DJ Jones (6th)

Your expectations of a draft pick is outrageous. Teams are lucky to get 3 players from a draft class that contribute in any way shape or form. If a team picks up 1 starter and 2 role players then that's an average draft if you look at the class 3 or 4 years down the road.

geesh some of you really think great drafting teams hit on 50% or more on their picks. Go back and look at draft classes from other teams. They are just as bad.

The old study was 2.3 "starters" per draft on average for every team. So you shoot for 3 like you noted. The operational definition of "starters" was never defined though. I used to do the same formula under Baalke but I've since moved away from it to more ROI.

Snap counts and quality of those snaps. And those vary based on the position and expectations and should include draft expectations. With this, you can apply it to free agents/trades as well.

When you look at it through a ROI-lense for both ways of player acquisitions, we're way in the red. This company is about to go under.

Example:
TE George Kittle (5th) - 3,253 snaps in 4.5 years (722 annual average) @ a pro bowl level. This is phenomenal original value. Now, he's the highest paid TE but his snap counts have been 748 through the last 24 games or 31 snaps a game after his contract. This is poor value. For perspective, Travis Kelce has had 1,610 (67) snaps during that same span and remains at a pro bowl level commensurate his high contract.

IMHO, this is how we should be assessing players and their value. Not just as "starters."

Originally posted by mayo49:
The big problem is our starters are dropping like flies.

Not only that, some of those flies aren't very good starters.

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:

Originally posted by mayo49:
The big problem is our starters are dropping like flies.

Not only that, some of those flies aren't very good starters.

Facts, sadly.

the BIGGEST problem is we are just NOT winning !!!

The great Bill Walsh had all the SUPERSTARS in the world and when he was struggling to win, Eddie wanted him out of SF and even stripped him w/his title of being the team PRESIDENT.... the relationship went as far as Eddie wanted Bill to call his lawyers and write out the paper work regarding his compensation if the team were to terminate his contract..

bottom line is we are NOT winning and the DOLPHINS will continue to benefit drafting on the TOP 7 for the next two years because they have our 1st rounds..

.. and we will continue to HOPE that KS can finally be a GOOD HC even if Lynch keeps hitting the jock pot between 4th and 5th round while hoping that the DAMAGE

GOODS he's taken in the 2nd and 3rd will be the players they were ONCE projected to be coming out of HIGH SCHOOL !!

Good Morning Everyone !!!!

Originally posted by mayo49:

Originally posted by KeepRabbitsOut:
Thankyou OTC
Interesting how much is learnt in a season like this as compared to 2019. Lets hope the FO are sitting up and taking notes.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Yeah it comes down to couple things (that OTC brought up) we gave the keys to two guys that had zero experience building a team. One was a freaking broadcaster.

Talent evaluation for the most part has been s**t. We got guys in here that have been on point more then them. I'd love to see their draft board, I'd probably lose it lol. They don't believe in BPA or impact of position when they draft. HC's shouldn't be in charge of everything...checks and balances are needed to make a team work, clearly SF has none. Kyle wants Joe Williams even though he's off their board. He gets him, same with Pettis, Hurd, CJ etc. I mean WTF are we doing here.

After the draft issues, it comes down to a lack of development or really just allowing your rookie to play, which is in fact developing. They're awful here. IF you're top 50 pick at RG can't beat out Brunskill, you've either totally whiffed on that pick or you won't allow him to develop. Don't give me the "it's pretty hard to beat out x player" crap when that player is f**king junk and we all see it. I feel like Kyle overall just hates rookies and playing them...he wants ready made guys BUT is unwilling to go the Rams route to get them... or really allow them to play, deal with the lumps which will ultimately get them better. I mean unless you're a Kittle/Warner type rookie who just flashed from day 1, you're not getting on the field and if you do f**k up...you go back to the butt bench. You can't do that with young players today.

So after messing up draft evaluations, poor development, you got FA strategy issues as well....Instead of going and getting that in the prime stud player, they go the cheap route more often then not. They disregard the reasons as to why that player might be cheaper (injury history play on field) and hope it will magically change in SF. They depend on often injured players to take on meaningful snaps and as we've seen it's constantly bit them in the ass.

They miss mange their cap space, where the cash flow is going and hope cheap vet min players will become something they've never been.

Overall there's a lot of WTF are you doing as far as team building goes.

That's a damn fine rant right there.

Completely agree. Moneyball is a big part of what sunk the Harbaalke ship, and it's going to sink the Shanalynch ship too if they don't figure out that this is the problem with their resource management.

No question. Same exact moneyball patterns under 3+ different regimes now.

Gee Whiz, imagine that, 3 consecutive regimes, all with the same ugly problem….moneyball, or chintzing on top flite talent that is injured and will take less.

so let's see now,…what did these 3 regimes have in common? Ok, what did they have in common +. MONEYBALL? Could it be an accountant, with no football expertise but great at numbers… esp contracts? Nahhhhh….but it fits, doesn't it?

I posted about Paraag at least 10 maybe 12 yrs ago…and where is he now? Well that's a question we really would like answered. He also almost surely would have been advocating for the Buck trade. Anyone really thing JL or KS did that?

Just what kind of strong arm pressure, does paraag bring to Re-signings….draft picks….FAs….trades? There are investigative reporters out there…c'mon MM, help us out. Find out for us. Thru every regime, the "paraag" remained. The common link, and i don't think it is just coincidence.

This isn't baseball paraag, basically a sport with no contact. This is NFL…football…no, not soccer, American football, and moneyball doesn't work for krapt here.