49ers Biggest Problem is NOT What Many Think..

Originally posted by Butter:

Originally posted by FL9er:
This is only going to change if Kyle relinquishes some of his personnel power.

Exactly. Kyle is a great coach, but he has had some big misses dictating player moves.

Dante Pettis
Solomon Thomas
Jalen Hurd
Wishnosky
Aaron Banks
Trey Sermon

There is a consistent theme of trying to out-smart the field, but ending up drastically over drafting players.

Its not that these players aren't worth drafting, it's that they were drafted WAY too early.

I wouldn't call Wishowsky a bad player at all, he's one of the best Punter's in the NFL, just because he was a 4th round pick doesn't mean he was a bad pick. Also you can't call Banks & Sermon that either, it's way too early, people are too impatient, these guys aren't going to come in right away and play great right away. They take time to develop.

The only real picks I blame Kyle for are Pettis, Hurd, Beathard & Joe Williams

As for over drafting, no one knows 100% if Wishnowsky, Banks, Sermon, etc... would have lasted till later, saying that is pure BS, no one knows that.

All these first year players are just trying to make the team. You can't expect them to come in and win starting spots right away - their time will come.

Originally posted by mayo49:
All these first year players are just trying to make the team. You can't expect them to come in and win starting spots right away - their time will come.

NOT under KS!!

Originally posted by 9moon:

Originally posted by mayo49:
All these first year players are just trying to make the team. You can't expect them to come in and win starting spots right away - their time will come.

NOT under KS!!

With all the guys going down he has no choice but to play the rooks.

Originally posted by mayo49:

Originally posted by 9moon:

Originally posted by mayo49:
All these first year players are just trying to make the team. You can't expect them to come in and win starting spots right away - their time will come.

NOT under KS!!

With all the guys going down he has no choice but to play the rooks.

U talking SANU, NORM or DRE?

whatever happen to that RB we signed for a game to throw a pass against Arizona? Did we release him already?

Was he signed just for that play, similar to the reason why we signed LAME JETT, just to run the Jet-Sweep??

I see Jennings on the sideline, I'm sure he knows the offense, but he continues to play his hand picked SANU?

Originally posted by 9moon:

Originally posted by mayo49:

Originally posted by 9moon:

Originally posted by mayo49:
All these first year players are just trying to make the team. You can't expect them to come in and win starting spots right away - their time will come.

NOT under KS!!

With all the guys going down he has no choice but to play the rooks.

U talking SANU, NORM or DRE?

whatever happen to that RB we signed for a game to throw a pass against Arizona? Did we release him already?

Was he signed just for that play, similar to the reason why we signed LAME JETT, just to run the Jet-Sweep??

I see Jennings on the sideline, I'm sure he knows the offense, but he continues to play his hand picked SANU?

First off, calm down your going to blow a gasket. Yeah, Shanny has favorites, that's just the way it is.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
NOT THE ISSUE: ADDING ROOKIE TALENT
I've seen many say our drafts have been crap, and if you ONLY looked at the big whiffs in particular in a couple of our classes on early picks, you'd think "Good God, they suck at drafting..." But analyzing our hit rate versus other teams, ours is actually significantly better than I expected. I estimate we drafted contributors on at least 16/40 picks over the past 5 years (40% hit rate). Looking at our division foes, we have done significantly better than Seattle and LA (although they've gotten talent to stay competitive in other ways -- more on that later). The strange thing is just that the 49ers are somehow managing to do it very backwards, hitting on tons of late picks and UDFAs more than their picks in the first four rounds.

These are the ones I qualified as "hits" or "contributors" in my opinion:
OL Jaylon Moore (5th)
CB Deommodore Lenoir (5th)
S Talanoa Hufanga (5th)
RB Elijah Mitchell (6th)
WR Brandon Aiyuk (1st)
TE Charlie Woener (6th)
DE Nick Bosa (1st)
WR Deebo Samuel (2nd)
P Mitch Wishnowsky (4th)
LB Dre Greenlaw (5th)
TE Kaden Smith (6th) - Not with the team, but lost from PS to NYG where he's started.
OT Mike McGlinchey (1st)
LB Fred Warner (3rd)
S/LB Marcell Harris (6th)
TE George Kittle (5th)
DT DJ Jones (6th)

On average, we have added at least 1 Pro Bowler per year in the draft (Warner, Kittle, Bosa, and Samuel likely makes it this year if healthy)

THE REAL ISSUE: TALENT RETENTION & OVERALL RISK MANAGEMENT IN PERSONNEL DECISIONS
First off, plain and simple, we have not found a way to keep our best players/leaders here (Buckner and Sanders, for example). This problem has been compounded by the fact that the team has been absolutely horrific at managing their risk, relying on players with injury histories at STARTING POSITIONS, such as Jimmy G, Verrett, Ward, Tartt, Mostert, Ford, K'Waun Williams, Aziz Al-Shaair, DJ Jones, Jeff Wilson, and Kentavius Street. We know that these players can do some good while on the field, but we pay them too much to miss as many games as they have. This level of risk -- essentially fielding half or more than half of an entire side of the ball's starters -- seems absolutely insane to me. It's not like those guys I mentioned suddenly had a slew of injuries just recently. They've been known injury prone guys for years, some even dating back to college.

PROBLEM IDENTIFIED, SO WHAT'S THE ANSWER?: SIGNIFICANT ROSTER SHAKE-UP
The team absolutely must change its approach in 2022, and I'd like to see significant roster turnover and a fresh start with as many new faces replacing aging, injury prone players who are set to become UFAs in 2022. Below, the bold are the FAs I'd consider keeping for the right price.

49ERS 2022 FREE AGENTS
C Jake Brendel
CB Jason Verrett
CB K'Waun Williams
CB Josh Norman
CB Dre Kirkpatrick
CB Dontae Johnson
DE Arden Key
DE Jordan Willis
DT D.J. Jones
DT Maurice Hurst
DT Kentavius Street
DT Kevin Givens
LB Marcell Harris
LB Azeez Al-Shaair
LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles
LG Laken Tomlinson
RB Raheem Mostert
RB Jeff Wilson
RB Trenton Cannon
RB JaMycal Hasty
RG Tom Compton
RG Daniel Brunskill
S Jaquiski Tartt
S Tavon Wilson
S Tarvarius Moore
S Kai Nacua
TE Ross Dwelley
WR Mohamed Sanu
WR Travis Benjamin
WR Trent Sherfield
WR Jauan Jennings
WR Richie James

NON-FREE AGENTS THAT I'D CUT OR TRADE (IF POSSIBLE) WHOSE CAP IMPACT WOULD ALLOW IT
QB Jimmy Garoppolo - Obvious reasons, big contract and not the future
DE Samson Ebukam - Don't think he's fitting as well as they thought he would. Might be expendable with Omenihu joining us.
S Jimmie Ward - Post June 1st cut/trade
DE Dee Ford - Post June 1st cut

Summary/Bottom Line:
The 49ers have completely mismanaged their resources. They've passed too often on adding star talent via trades (but had no issues trading three 1sts and more for a raw rookie QB), and they've spent tons of money on players with injury histories, consistently finishing among league leaders in players on IR/salary cap percentage on IR. And even in the draft where they've actually done better than people think, they've spent resources on a lot more players with medical concerns than you'd like. The bottom line is that their philosophy needs to change. If you have a superstar that's a leader, KEEP THEM. Kittle, Warner, and Trent are good examples. They failed with Buck. So, quit with the "Moneyball" crap, and put more emphasis on toughness and reliability, which Buckner was a perfect model of. Otherwise, we're going to continue to see the majority of our starters stretchered off or carted off the field as we're yet again forced to field a pre-season style roster.

Aiyuk is not anywhere close to a good pick so far. Lynch's first two first rounders went down the toilet. We run around with garbage at CB for how many years now?
BTW, we could have Mahomes, we drafted a player who does not fit the system instead. And we got and extended Jimmy.
The interior o-line was a mess until this season.

so, we indeed had and have some issues adding rookie talent as well apparently.

Originally posted by AB81Rules:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

NOT THE ISSUE: ADDING ROOKIE TALENT
I've seen many say our drafts have been crap, and if you ONLY looked at the big whiffs in particular in a couple of our classes on early picks, you'd think "Good God, they suck at drafting..." But analyzing our hit rate versus other teams, ours is actually significantly better than I expected. I estimate we drafted contributors on at least 16/40 picks over the past 5 years (40% hit rate). Looking at our division foes, we have done significantly better than Seattle and LA (although they've gotten talent to stay competitive in other ways -- more on that later). The strange thing is just that the 49ers are somehow managing to do it very backwards, hitting on tons of late picks and UDFAs more than their picks in the first four rounds.

These are the ones I qualified as "hits" or "contributors" in my opinion:
OL Jaylon Moore (5th)
CB Deommodore Lenoir (5th)
S Talanoa Hufanga (5th)
RB Elijah Mitchell (6th)
WR Brandon Aiyuk (1st)
TE Charlie Woener (6th)
DE Nick Bosa (1st)
WR Deebo Samuel (2nd)
P Mitch Wishnowsky (4th)
LB Dre Greenlaw (5th)
TE Kaden Smith (6th) - Not with the team, but lost from PS to NYG where he's started.
OT Mike McGlinchey (1st)
LB Fred Warner (3rd)
S/LB Marcell Harris (6th)
TE George Kittle (5th)
DT DJ Jones (6th)

On average, we have added at least 1 Pro Bowler per year in the draft (Warner, Kittle, Bosa, and Samuel likely makes it this year if healthy)

THE REAL ISSUE: TALENT RETENTION & OVERALL RISK MANAGEMENT IN PERSONNEL DECISIONS
First off, plain and simple, we have not found a way to keep our best players/leaders here (Buckner and Sanders, for example). This problem has been compounded by the fact that the team has been absolutely horrific at managing their risk, relying on players with injury histories at STARTING POSITIONS, such as Jimmy G, Verrett, Ward, Tartt, Mostert, Ford, K'Waun Williams, Aziz Al-Shaair, DJ Jones, Jeff Wilson, and Kentavius Street. We know that these players can do some good while on the field, but we pay them too much to miss as many games as they have. This level of risk -- essentially fielding half or more than half of an entire side of the ball's starters -- seems absolutely insane to me. It's not like those guys I mentioned suddenly had a slew of injuries just recently. They've been known injury prone guys for years, some even dating back to college.

PROBLEM IDENTIFIED, SO WHAT'S THE ANSWER?: SIGNIFICANT ROSTER SHAKE-UP
The team absolutely must change its approach in 2022, and I'd like to see significant roster turnover and a fresh start with as many new faces replacing aging, injury prone players who are set to become UFAs in 2022. Below, the bold are the FAs I'd consider keeping for the right price.

49ERS 2022 FREE AGENTS
C Jake Brendel
CB Jason Verrett
CB K'Waun Williams
CB Josh Norman
CB Dre Kirkpatrick
CB Dontae Johnson
DE Arden Key
DE Jordan Willis
DT D.J. Jones
DT Maurice Hurst
DT Kentavius Street
DT Kevin Givens
LB Marcell Harris
LB Azeez Al-Shaair
LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles
LG Laken Tomlinson
RB Raheem Mostert
RB Jeff Wilson
RB Trenton Cannon
RB JaMycal Hasty
RG Tom Compton
RG Daniel Brunskill
S Jaquiski Tartt
S Tavon Wilson
S Tarvarius Moore
S Kai Nacua
TE Ross Dwelley
WR Mohamed Sanu
WR Travis Benjamin
WR Trent Sherfield
WR Jauan Jennings
WR Richie James

NON-FREE AGENTS THAT I'D CUT OR TRADE (IF POSSIBLE) WHOSE CAP IMPACT WOULD ALLOW IT
QB Jimmy Garoppolo - Obvious reasons, big contract and not the future
DE Samson Ebukam - Don't think he's fitting as well as they thought he would. Might be expendable with Omenihu joining us.
S Jimmie Ward - Post June 1st cut/trade
DE Dee Ford - Post June 1st cut

Summary/Bottom Line:
The 49ers have completely mismanaged their resources. They've passed too often on adding star talent via trades (but had no issues trading three 1sts and more for a raw rookie QB), and they've spent tons of money on players with injury histories, consistently finishing among league leaders in players on IR/salary cap percentage on IR. And even in the draft where they've actually done better than people think, they've spent resources on a lot more players with medical concerns than you'd like. The bottom line is that their philosophy needs to change. If you have a superstar that's a leader, KEEP THEM. Kittle, Warner, and Trent are good examples. They failed with Buck. So, quit with the "Moneyball" crap, and put more emphasis on toughness and reliability, which Buckner was a perfect model of. Otherwise, we're going to continue to see the majority of our starters stretchered off or carted off the field as we're yet again forced to field a pre-season style roster.

Thank you OTC for saying what I've been saying this regime has drafted well, 40% is above what the average is for a GM to be considered good at drafting.

As for the players you mentioned, I'll put it like this, these are the guys I'd keep in the long term, or the immediate future.

QB Trey Lance
RB Elijah Mitchell
RB Trey Sermon
FB Kyle Juszcyzk
WR Deebo Samuel
WR Brandon Aiyuk
WR Trent Sherfield
WR Jauan Jennings
TE George Kittle
TE Charlie Woerner
C Alex Mack
LG Laken Tomlinson
LG Colton McKivitz
RG Aaron Banks
LT Trent Williams
LT Jaylon Moore
DE Arik Armstead
DE Nick Bosa
DE Charles Omenihu
DT Javon Kinlaw
NT D.J. Jones
WLB Dre Greenlaw
MLB Fred Warner
SLB Azeez Al-Shaair
CB Ambry Thomas
CB Deommodore Lenoir
CB K'Waun Williams
FS Jimmie Ward
SS Talanoa Hufanga
P Mitch Wishnowsky

Players I'm 50/50 on.

RB JaMycal Hasty
RB Trenton Cannon
TE Ross Dwelley
C Jake Brendel
RG Daniel Brunskill (Only as depth)
RT Justin Skule (Maybe let him compete for Swing T spot)
DE Jordan Willis
DE Arden Key
DE Samson Ebukam (Need to see more of him)
DT Maurice Hurst Jr.
DT Kentavius Street
DT Kevin Givens
WLB Marcell Harris
SLB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles
CB Emmanuel Moseley (Same as Ebukam)
FS Tarvarius Moore

None of these players are guys I'd give more than the league minimum too.

Players I'd let walk or trade/cut after 2021.

QB Jimmy Garoppolo
RB Raheem Mostert
RB Jeff Wilson Jr. (Unless he has a breakout 2nd half)
WR Mohamed Sanu Sr.
WR Richie James Jr.
WR Travis Benjamin
RT Tom Compton
CB Jason Verrett
CB Josh Norman
CB Dre Kirkpatrick
CB Dontae Johnson
FS Tavon Wilson
SS Jaquiski Tartt

Players we're stuck with in 2022 whether we like it or not.

RT Mike McGlinchey
PK Robbie Gould

Also of need to note that Hasty, Jennings, McKivitz(if he didn't sign a 2yr deal), Givens & Flannigan-Fowles are all ERFAs, Hasty, McKivitz, Givens & Flannigan-Fowles would get 1yr non GTD $895K tender, Jennings would get 1yr non GTD $825K tender.

Brunskill, Street, & Al-Shaair are RFAs, I wouldn't tender any of them, rather sign them to 1yr deals worth far less than the projected original round tender of $2.396M.

The player's we're stuck with thing.. Yeah I looked at MM guaranteed figure next year and it's awful, especially coming off a season ending injury now..

As far as DB and Azeez, the original round tender for UDFA is THAT much?!? That's insane.

Originally posted by AB81Rules:

Originally posted by Butter:

Originally posted by FL9er:
This is only going to change if Kyle relinquishes some of his personnel power.

Exactly. Kyle is a great coach, but he has had some big misses dictating player moves.

Dante Pettis
Solomon Thomas
Jalen Hurd
Wishnosky
Aaron Banks
Trey Sermon

There is a consistent theme of trying to out-smart the field, but ending up drastically over drafting players.

Its not that these players aren't worth drafting, it's that they were drafted WAY too early.

I wouldn't call Wishowsky a bad player at all, he's one of the best Punter's in the NFL, just because he was a 4th round pick doesn't mean he was a bad pick. Also you can't call Banks & Sermon that either, it's way too early, people are too impatient, these guys aren't going to come in right away and play great right away. They take time to develop.

The only real picks I blame Kyle for are Pettis, Hurd, Beathard & Joe Williams

As for over drafting, no one knows 100% if Wishnowsky, Banks, Sermon, etc... would have lasted till later, saying that is pure BS, no one knows that.

I think it's clear already that Banks and Sermon don't have the talent to make noise on a very depleted roster. Him saying that is no less BS than you saying this was one of the best draft classes of all time. I mean it's looking more like on of the worst ever. I'd probably ease off attacking other folks about it after that glowing proclamation

Excellent post OTC.

I thought we'd be rid of the Baalke injury picks when he left. NOT

Waste of time, money and a future w/those type of picks.

My 2nd peeve is piss-poor player development.

Originally posted by mayo49:

Originally posted by 9moon:

Originally posted by mayo49:

Originally posted by 9moon:

Originally posted by mayo49:
All these first year players are just trying to make the team. You can't expect them to come in and win starting spots right away - their time will come.

NOT under KS!!

With all the guys going down he has no choice but to play the rooks.

U talking SANU, NORM or DRE?

whatever happen to that RB we signed for a game to throw a pass against Arizona? Did we release him already?

Was he signed just for that play, similar to the reason why we signed LAME JETT, just to run the Jet-Sweep??

I see Jennings on the sideline, I'm sure he knows the offense, but he continues to play his hand picked SANU?

First off, calm down your going to blow a gasket. Yeah, Shanny has favorites, that's just the way it is.

Shanny seems clueless when It comes down to personnel decision making. That's another concern with Kyle.

Originally posted by AB81Rules:

Originally posted by Butter:

Originally posted by FL9er:
This is only going to change if Kyle relinquishes some of his personnel power.

Exactly. Kyle is a great coach, but he has had some big misses dictating player moves.

Dante Pettis
Solomon Thomas
Jalen Hurd
Wishnosky
Aaron Banks
Trey Sermon

There is a consistent theme of trying to out-smart the field, but ending up drastically over drafting players.

Its not that these players aren't worth drafting, it's that they were drafted WAY too early.

I wouldn't call Wishowsky a bad player at all, he's one of the best Punter's in the NFL, just because he was a 4th round pick doesn't mean he was a bad pick. Also you can't call Banks & Sermon that either, it's way too early, people are too impatient, these guys aren't going to come in right away and play great right away. They take time to develop.

The only real picks I blame Kyle for are Pettis, Hurd, Beathard & Joe Williams

As for over drafting, no one knows 100% if Wishnowsky, Banks, Sermon, etc... would have lasted till later, saying that is pure BS, no one knows that.

You're right, no one knows, bit it has been a consistent theme. Calling it pure BS is just as much speculation.

I would be willing to bet that Pettis, Hurd, Banks, Wishnowski, etc all would have been available at least one, if not many rounds later.

It is my opinion, but I believe this is one of Kyle's weaknesses.

Originally posted by Butter:

Originally posted by AB81Rules:

Originally posted by Butter:

Originally posted by FL9er:
This is only going to change if Kyle relinquishes some of his personnel power.

Exactly. Kyle is a great coach, but he has had some big misses dictating player moves.

Dante Pettis
Solomon Thomas
Jalen Hurd
Wishnosky
Aaron Banks
Trey Sermon

There is a consistent theme of trying to out-smart the field, but ending up drastically over drafting players.

Its not that these players aren't worth drafting, it's that they were drafted WAY too early.

I wouldn't call Wishowsky a bad player at all, he's one of the best Punter's in the NFL, just because he was a 4th round pick doesn't mean he was a bad pick. Also you can't call Banks & Sermon that either, it's way too early, people are too impatient, these guys aren't going to come in right away and play great right away. They take time to develop.

The only real picks I blame Kyle for are Pettis, Hurd, Beathard & Joe Williams

As for over drafting, no one knows 100% if Wishnowsky, Banks, Sermon, etc... would have lasted till later, saying that is pure BS, no one knows that.

You're right, no one knows, bit it has been a consistent theme. Calling it pure BS is just as much speculation.

I would be willing to bet that Pettis, Hurd, Banks, Wishnowski, etc all would have been available at least one, if not many rounds later.

It is my opinion, but I believe this is one of Kyle's weaknesses.

Them locking onto a player and panicking to move up.to get them isn't even debatable at this point. It's literally, a tried and true method of this FO proven over five off seasons.

Originally posted by qnnhan7:
When you're depending on 5th and 6th round talent to shore up the team lol

This. Have to nail more 1st thru 4th rounds, 3 for last 18 is horrible. If you're counting Aiyuk, Lance, and Kinlaw then that changes it to 33%....needs to be closer to 50% IMO. Already discounting Sermon and that head scratcher Banks. Him and Pettis going head to head for worst second rounder since Chilo.

They draft bad, terrible FA moves, bad GM hires, questionable coaching moves. They have among the worst ownership in the league.

I'm not surprised they always find the bottom. It's easy to see how.