What will Jimmy's trade value be in the offseason?

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by okdkid:
You are right. Garoppolo is vastly better on virtually all fronts. And the trade comp will reflect it.

Fans need to stop conflating their personal opinions of Garoppolo with those of the market. They are not the same.

Vastly better on all fronts is kind of an opinion tho.

The market is in line with that opinion. That's the difference. Maiocco has already been through this.

Originally posted by okdkid:
That doesn't matter.

They're trading for a QB who can help them win right now. A QB who can steady the ship and a locker room leader who is anti-drama.

He doesn't need to be more talented physically. He needs to help an otherwise balanced team get to the playoffs. Literally no other QB (other than Wilson, Rodgers) that's available this offseason can claim that. And there are 7+ teams that need a QB. And zero rookie QBs that can likely win in year 1.

So the price goes up, up, up.

Supply & Demand. That's what drives the market. There is crazy demand and minimal supply.

This right here - good post!

We'll see what happens before long.

Originally posted by okdkid:

Originally posted by NinerBuff:

Originally posted by okdkid:
You are right. Garoppolo is vastly better on virtually all fronts. And the trade comp will reflect it.

Fans need to stop conflating their personal opinions of Garoppolo with those of the market. They are not the same.

But no one is assuming they'll get more out of Jimmy. That was the assumption with Darnold. Now, for Jimmy, his winning percentage, general demeanor, and professionalism are his selling points. But again, no one is signing Jimmy thinking he's "the guy" like we did in 2017. Both Wentz and Darnold were at least in that conversation, even if it was a bit contrived.

That doesn't matter.

They're trading for a QB who can help them win right now. A QB who can steady the ship and a locker room leader who is anti-drama.

He doesn't need to be more talented physically. He needs to help an otherwise balanced team get to the playoffs. Literally no other QB (other than Wilson, Rodgers) that's available this offseason can claim that. And there are 7+ teams that need a QB. And zero rookie QBs that can likely win in year 1.

So the price goes up, up, up.

Supply & Demand. That's what drives the market. There is crazy demand and minimal supply.

I agree with everything other than your first point. If a team was bringing in a QB to be the guy, the value is much higher than bringing in a guy to stabilize a situation and hold the reigns until they find the next guy. However, because of a scarcity of viable QB options in FA and the draft, the baseline for a Jimmy trade does go up.

Originally posted by okdkid:

Originally posted by NinerBuff:

Originally posted by okdkid:
You are right. Garoppolo is vastly better on virtually all fronts. And the trade comp will reflect it.

Fans need to stop conflating their personal opinions of Garoppolo with those of the market. They are not the same.

But no one is assuming they'll get more out of Jimmy. That was the assumption with Darnold. Now, for Jimmy, his winning percentage, general demeanor, and professionalism are his selling points. But again, no one is signing Jimmy thinking he's "the guy" like we did in 2017. Both Wentz and Darnold were at least in that conversation, even if it was a bit contrived.

That doesn't matter.

They're trading for a QB who can help them win right now. A QB who can steady the ship and a locker room leader who is anti-drama.

He doesn't need to be more talented physically. He needs to help an otherwise balanced team get to the playoffs. Literally no other QB (other than Wilson, Rodgers) that's available this offseason can claim that. And there are 7+ teams that need a QB. And zero rookie QBs that can likely win in year 1.

So the price goes up, up, up.

Supply & Demand. That's what drives the market. There is crazy demand and minimal supply.

That is the main driver. Rodgers and Wilson will have a huge affect on the market. But Jimmy has that injury-prone red flag, and the fact that teams know we'll be getting rid of him (the same thing depreciated Alex Smith when he was traded both times — starting QBs are worth a 1st usually).

Originally posted by NinerBuff:

Originally posted by okdkid:

Originally posted by NinerBuff:

Originally posted by okdkid:
You are right. Garoppolo is vastly better on virtually all fronts. And the trade comp will reflect it.

Fans need to stop conflating their personal opinions of Garoppolo with those of the market. They are not the same.

But no one is assuming they'll get more out of Jimmy. That was the assumption with Darnold. Now, for Jimmy, his winning percentage, general demeanor, and professionalism are his selling points. But again, no one is signing Jimmy thinking he's "the guy" like we did in 2017. Both Wentz and Darnold were at least in that conversation, even if it was a bit contrived.

That doesn't matter.

They're trading for a QB who can help them win right now. A QB who can steady the ship and a locker room leader who is anti-drama.

He doesn't need to be more talented physically. He needs to help an otherwise balanced team get to the playoffs. Literally no other QB (other than Wilson, Rodgers) that's available this offseason can claim that. And there are 7+ teams that need a QB. And zero rookie QBs that can likely win in year 1.

So the price goes up, up, up.

Supply & Demand. That's what drives the market. There is crazy demand and minimal supply.

I agree with everything other than your first point. If a team was bringing in a QB to be the guy, the value is much higher than bringing in a guy to stabilize a situation and hold the reigns until they find the next guy. However, because of a scarcity of viable QB options in FA and the draft, the baseline for a Jimmy trade does go up.

Neither of those teams were bringing in Wentz nor Darnold "to be the guy". They were "let's see how this goes" -- which is reflective in the trade comp and the adjustments (or lack there of) to their respective contracts. Both Indy and Carolina could get out of those deals relatively painlessly after 1-2 years. Indy can dump Wentz for $0 dead cap after 2022 and Darnold is a UFA next year. These were shots in the dark.

Only Rodgers and Wilson would be traded "to be the guy" this offseason. Both will come in incredible trade comp and massive contract adjustments.

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by okdkid:

Originally posted by NinerBuff:

Originally posted by okdkid:
You are right. Garoppolo is vastly better on virtually all fronts. And the trade comp will reflect it.

Fans need to stop conflating their personal opinions of Garoppolo with those of the market. They are not the same.

But no one is assuming they'll get more out of Jimmy. That was the assumption with Darnold. Now, for Jimmy, his winning percentage, general demeanor, and professionalism are his selling points. But again, no one is signing Jimmy thinking he's "the guy" like we did in 2017. Both Wentz and Darnold were at least in that conversation, even if it was a bit contrived.

That doesn't matter.

They're trading for a QB who can help them win right now. A QB who can steady the ship and a locker room leader who is anti-drama.

He doesn't need to be more talented physically. He needs to help an otherwise balanced team get to the playoffs. Literally no other QB (other than Wilson, Rodgers) that's available this offseason can claim that. And there are 7+ teams that need a QB. And zero rookie QBs that can likely win in year 1.

So the price goes up, up, up.

Supply & Demand. That's what drives the market. There is crazy demand and minimal supply.

That is the main driver. Rodgers and Wilson will have a huge affect on the market. But Jimmy has that injury-prone red flag, and the fact that teams know we'll be getting rid of him (the same thing depreciated Alex Smith when he was traded both times — starting QBs are worth a 1st usually).

I don't think they will have any impact. That would be true if there were 3 teams in need for starting caliber QBs. But there are many, many more.

The only thing Rodgers, Wilson change is which team Garoppolo ends up at...but not the trade comp.

Originally posted by NinerBuff:
Curious what the draft gurus think… is a 2nd and 4th this year more valuable than a 1st rounder (mid teens)? We only have 31 players under contract and will lose Jimmy, so we need to fill roster spots with cheap talent, so you could make an argument that a 2nd and 4th nets us more value. Unless there's a drop off. Most drafts gave 12-18 "1st round talents".

Not even close.

Let's play it liberal with the numbers to humor your idea. Let's say we had pick #18. According to the draft value chart, that pick is worth 900 "points".

Let's say we could get the best 2nd round pick (#33) and the best 4th round pick (#97). Those picks are worth 580 points and 112 points. In other words, they are collectively worth about 692 combined points. So, the first round pick is considerably more valuable.

Even if you thought you needed more picks, you could always use that mid first rounder to trade down. e.g. pick #18 in the first is worth the first pick in the second round (#33) and an early third round pick (#74).

And this is being generous with your parameters. I'm using the worst possible first round pick, and netting the team the best hypothetical second round picks. The gap would be even larger in reality.

Edit: I will say this. The "draft value chart" is very outdated and probably doesn't hold up well to statistical analysis of the true value of draft picks. So everything I said is predicated on accepting the draft value chart, which is admittedly of tenuous value. I'm sure smart teams exploit this to their advantage in a Moneyball sort of way.

Originally posted by NYniner85:
"I'd think the Niners could realistically get a second-round pick plus at least a player," an AFC personnel director of a team not in the quarterback market tells FanSided on the condition of anonymity to speak freely about another team. "But, I do think his market could expand once teams get one look at this year's quarterback class. He's probably better than anyone from this class or 2023.

"If they're trying to get a first-rounder, good luck, they aren't getting close to that for a bridge quarterback, which is what he is."

Yup...that sounds about right. I think they can get 2 2nds (one this year and one next year) - but I'd take a 2nd plus at least a player.

Originally posted by 4ML:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
"I'd think the Niners could realistically get a second-round pick plus at least a player," an AFC personnel director of a team not in the quarterback market tells FanSided on the condition of anonymity to speak freely about another team. "But, I do think his market could expand once teams get one look at this year's quarterback class. He's probably better than anyone from this class or 2023.

"If they're trying to get a first-rounder, good luck, they aren't getting close to that for a bridge quarterback, which is what he is."

Yup...that sounds about right. I think they can get 2 2nds (one this year and one next year) - but I'd take a 2nd plus at least a player.

I love the (nonsensical) dramatic language people use.

"If they're trying to get a first-rounder, good luck, they aren't getting close to that for a bridge quarterback, which is what he is."

Lol. A 2nd and a player seems pretty f'ing close to a 1st. lol

Hell, in that scenario, the Niners could trade that 2nd and a player to get into the 1st. What a dumb thing to say.

Originally posted by NinerBuff:
Curious what the draft gurus think… is a 2nd and 4th this year more valuable than a 1st rounder (mid teens)? We only have 31 players under contract and will lose Jimmy, so we need to fill roster spots with cheap talent, so you could make an argument that a 2nd and 4th nets us more value. Unless there's a drop off. Most drafts gave 12-18 "1st round talents".

A mid 1st is far more valuable. You could turn that into an early 2nd and 4th this year and a 1st next year or a whole lot of other picks.

You always take the 1st rounder.

Originally posted by okdkid:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by okdkid:

Originally posted by NinerBuff:

Originally posted by okdkid:
You are right. Garoppolo is vastly better on virtually all fronts. And the trade comp will reflect it.

Fans need to stop conflating their personal opinions of Garoppolo with those of the market. They are not the same.

But no one is assuming they'll get more out of Jimmy. That was the assumption with Darnold. Now, for Jimmy, his winning percentage, general demeanor, and professionalism are his selling points. But again, no one is signing Jimmy thinking he's "the guy" like we did in 2017. Both Wentz and Darnold were at least in that conversation, even if it was a bit contrived.

That doesn't matter.

They're trading for a QB who can help them win right now. A QB who can steady the ship and a locker room leader who is anti-drama.

He doesn't need to be more talented physically. He needs to help an otherwise balanced team get to the playoffs. Literally no other QB (other than Wilson, Rodgers) that's available this offseason can claim that. And there are 7+ teams that need a QB. And zero rookie QBs that can likely win in year 1.

So the price goes up, up, up.

Supply & Demand. That's what drives the market. There is crazy demand and minimal supply.

That is the main driver. Rodgers and Wilson will have a huge affect on the market. But Jimmy has that injury-prone red flag, and the fact that teams know we'll be getting rid of him (the same thing depreciated Alex Smith when he was traded both times — starting QBs are worth a 1st usually).

I don't think they will have any impact. That would be true if there were 3 teams in need for starting caliber QBs. But there are many, many more.

The only thing Rodgers, Wilson change is which team Garoppolo ends up at...but not the trade comp.

I doubt that. When there is one starting QB available and 3 teams, the price for him will probably be less than if there are 6 teams bidding for him: the larger the number of bidders the greater the expected revenue, until it reaches a point that bidders start dropping out altogether.

Revenue-maximizing Dutch auctions with discrete bid levels

EDIT — It should be noted that the Packers are not going to be able to trade for Jimmy. Their cap situation has forced them to need draft picks for Rodgers, not another quarterback. And I discounted Seattle because I can't imagine a world in which Jimmy would be a Seahawk.

Originally posted by okdkid:
I love the (nonsensical) dramatic language people use.

"If they're trying to get a first-rounder, good luck, they aren't getting close to that for a bridge quarterback, which is what he is."

Lol. A 2nd and a player seems pretty f'ing close to a 1st. lol

Hell, in that scenario, the Niners could trade that 2nd and a player to get into the 1st. What a dumb thing to say.

Wow man you speaking with a lot of conviction in here. What do you think we get in a trade for Jimmy?

Originally posted by 49ers808:

Originally posted by okdkid:
I love the (nonsensical) dramatic language people use.

"If they're trying to get a first-rounder, good luck, they aren't getting close to that for a bridge quarterback, which is what he is."

Lol. A 2nd and a player seems pretty f'ing close to a 1st. lol

Hell, in that scenario, the Niners could trade that 2nd and a player to get into the 1st. What a dumb thing to say.

Wow man you speaking with a lot of conviction in here. What do you think we get in a trade for Jimmy?

A 2nd plus a future pick or a starting caliber player. But it starts at a 2nd.

Originally posted by okdkid:

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by okdkid:
You are right. Garoppolo is vastly better on virtually all fronts. And the trade comp will reflect it.

Fans need to stop conflating their personal opinions of Garoppolo with those of the market. They are not the same.

Vastly better on all fronts is kind of an opinion tho.

The market is in line with that opinion. That's the difference. Maiocco has already been through this.

"The market" doesnt equal Twitter, though. Maiocco is a talking piece that's simply doing his job. No one's been through anything, but we'll find out.

I think he's pretty devalued without the other team having a contract in-hand, and all the teams are suspect of what they will really get out of him. Again, we'll see.

He gets at a minimum what darnold got last year and should be more